Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Saturday AND Sunday Football Now

Welcome into the fold NFL, great to have you back. As mentioned in my posting earlier this week, I'm going to start doing a diary of my maiden voyage into the madness that is fantasy football and this week will mark my first entry. I imagine the subsequent ones will sound a lot like this, "Dear diary, let me tell you all the ways why I suck". Hopefully not, but my expectations are low.

Before I dive into my games of the week, let me hit on a few topics of interest.

Miami/FSU:
If you missed this game on Monday night, kick yourself. Hard. I'll go so far as to say that this may be one of the top 3-5 games of the year. Six lead changes. Three in the fourth quarter. Last-second play. Does it get any better than that?

In all seriousness, this was a great game and one that will go a long way to help both programs. Unfortunately someone had to lose this one (sorry 'Noles), but what a great win for Coach Shannon and this Miami team. Although both teams showed some glaring issues, those two teams have some speed on them. If you haven't already, circle October 3 on your calendar - that's when Oklahoma (hopefully for Sooner nation with Bradford back) will visit Miami. OU has plenty of time to right the ship in many areas themselves, but this is going to be a tough match for the Sooners.

Anyway, after an abysmal start to the season for the ACC (see my previous post), the league got some saving grace with this instant classic. Kudos FSU/Miami, welcome back to the CFB show.

Oklahoma:
Meanwhile, in other news, Bob Stoops reports that he's had a combined 7 hours of sleep in the last 6 nights. What a kick in the groin for these guys. In my view, the three largest issues facing this team this year (in this order) are: 1) Loss of Jermaine Gresham for the year, 2) offensive line, and 3) Bradford. Why, you ask, would I have Bradford loss/uncertainty third on that list? Because without Gresham and a competent offensive line, it won't matter if Elway is back there.

I said this to folks after the OU game and I found no one who agreed with me - even if Bradford had stayed in the game, I still think BYU wins that game. Go back and watch the first half (with Bradford) and tell me what it is you see that makes you think OU was going to win that game. And if you're going to give the "Bradford being out was the only reason they lost" well consider that BYU was without their VERY good starting RB. Nonetheless, the Cougars were absolutely dominating both lines. Without all the time Bradford had last year to throw and without his reliable security blanket Gresham, it doesn't matter what receivers they have. I guarantee you this - you're going to see an OU team that focuses a hell of a lot more on its running backs and short, slant or out patterns. No more of this having 20 seconds to throw a 40-yard bomb down field. OU will get their wins the next two weekends and the bye week before the trip to Miami is simply a God send at this point. I say OU finishes 9-3 this year with a trip to the Holiday or Cotton bowl. I'll even take it one further - relatively speaking, this year and next year will be "down" years for the Sooners - next year they lose their RBs, QB and their entire defense. When I say down year, I literally mean 9 wins (8 at worst).

Either way, if I'm Bradford, I'm thinking more and more about the next level. If he's not talking to at least one person about this and how it could affect his status, I'd be surprised. And one more note - let me remind you Horns fans who are happy with this whole predicament: 1) you WANT the Sooners to be good this year when you beat them. 2) Five years ago, Oklahoma lost their first game of the year to TCU. They then lost to Texas. They THEN won the Big 12. Soo, let's not jump to any conclusions just yet.

Now, on to the games - just touching on a few (as they aren't more than a few worth touching on)....

Texas at Wyoming:
Believe it or not, there is some reason for concern as a whole for the Longhorns. Injuries and Academic eligibility. Starting offensive guard Michael Huey and starting linebacker Jared Norton will stay home this weekend, both nursing injuries sustained this past Saturday. It's unclear how long they'll be out, but never a good sign this early, especially when you're talking about offensive lineman and ankle injuries.

Meanwhile, our highly touted and deep secondary will be without 2 starters due to academic eligibility (along with receiver Brandon Collins) - and these guys may be out all year. That is really not good.

What is good is that Texas gets Wyoming this week, Tech at home next week (payback game AND the Red Raiders are rebuilding so to speak) and UTEP the following week, followed by a bye week and then Colorado at home. Texas doesn't NEED all of it's starters to play 75% of the snaps in those games. And a bye week before jumping into the teeth of conference play will go a long way. After that, the run gets a bit tougher.

Now about the game - I'll tell you this. I don't know much about Wyoming, but they are bringing a first-year coach who actually came from the Big 12 (Mizzou O-coordinator if I'm not mistaken) and he's brought the spread offense with him. This will give Texas a really good opportunity to build some depth and experience in that secondary (and everywhere really). And besides, even if Texas started 60% of their backups, they should still roll these guys.

I'm not expecting much from this game - this isn't to say I think Texas is going to lay an egg or anything because they're not, but I suspect we'll see a lot of the same game plan we saw in the UL-Monroe game, with emphasis on tightening things up. I don't want them opening up the playbook too much more this early, but I would like to see a few new wrinkles. I'd also like to see our defense step it up just a bit too - gotta keep 'em below 20. Have to.

Texas - 55
Wyoming - 16

Notre Dame at Michigan:
Unfortunately this game is on at the same time as the Texas game and I never thought I'd be saying this in the second week, but I'll be going back and forth quite regularly. Don't worry, I'm not jumping on Lou Holtz's idiot wagon proclaiming the Irish as "back", but given what both teams showed us in week 1, it's worth keeping an eye on. I still say both will end up right around 7-5 (maybe 9-3 for Irish with such weak schedule), but what ever.

What I'm anxious to see is how both defenses respond. Both defensive performances last weekend were certainly positive signs, but let's be honest, those opponents didn't present any real challenge. Both offenses should present a far greater challenge.

I think the most intriguing aspect of this game is what the losing coach will face in his respective schools. With that, I think I'm rooting for Rich Rod to turn up the heat on that enormous hot seat underneath Charlie Weiss' ass. And I'll be honest, I think the home team Wolverines are going to pull this out and thereby creating the largest 180 in the fan base in the history of sports. I can see it now - the students storming the field, putting Rich Rod on their shoulders and carrying him around the stadium. Rrrrriiiiiiight. Either way - home team takes it in a shocker.

Michigan - 31
Notre Dame - 27

UCLA at Tennessee:
Not unlike the above UM/ND game, these two teams are coming off games that caused some to turn their heads and raise an eyebrow. Not so fast my friends though, much like Florida spanking College of Charleston, they didn't tell us a ton. I worry that UCLA's Pac 10 defense will struggle greatly against a pretty good Tenn offense. I have a pretty good idea about Tennessee this year - they'll put up some yards, but I see a lot of brain farts and turnovers, costing them a ton of points over the season. I think they're defense will be pretty good because it usually is pretty good and Monte Kiffin knows what he's doing.

It's UCLA who I have no idea about. I said this last year, I like the coaches they've got, but I just don' think they have the experience/talent just yet. They're starting a freshman QB who threw (wait for it) 2 picks against San Diego State. Sooo, there's that. But don't forget, Norm Chow is their offensive coordinator.

I'm going to go with the home team in this one - say what you will about Lane Kiffin and his shenanigans, but I do think they've got a better team and they should have over 100,000 fans making some noise. Remember the last time a Pac 10 team (Cal) came into Knoxville? It was a royal ass whoopin' and knocked the Bears out of the "these guys may just make some noise this year" category.

Tennessee - 39
UCLA - 27

USC at Ohio State:
Obviously the game of the weekend. The consensus is that this is OSU's year to make a statement, knock off the mighty Trojans and gain some of that lost respect. As I said earlier this week, if the Ohio State game against Navy was a true indication of this team than you're going to see something very similar to last year's 35-3 shellacking. I also said that I think we'll see a much tighter, better Buckeye team, but I still don't know if it's going to be good enough to knock of Southern Cal.

I will say this though, USC is bringing in a freshman QB to start/play in his second game and oh yeah, it just happens to be at the horseshoe.....at night.....on national television. We will most certainly learn a lot about Mr. Barkley on Saturday night. The good news is he's got a pretty good running back in Joe McKnight who put up some big rushing yards last weekend. And from the looks of the Buckeye rush defense against Navy, that's got the defensive coaches a bit nervous.

I've thought about this a lot this week and have honestly wavered on this - too much knew-ness to USC's bunch to stroll into Columbus for a night game and just waltz through them. On the flip side, you've got an OSU team who hasn't beaten a relevant opponent since strolling into Austin and beating up on the defending champ Longhorns. Little history/irony note - that game was also the "Welcome to Big-Time College Football" moment for one Colt McCoy. But I digress...

If you read Mandel's column on cnnsi.com this week you'll see that he's starting the media love fest over USC a bit early...and a bit hard this year. (Side note: I sent him an email asking to please calm down...it was San Jose State for crying out loud). BUT, as tough as a challenge as this may be, my faith in Ohio State has reached the same level as my faith in our Government actually doing something worth a sh*t - none. If there is a more perennially overrated team in college football, I don't know who it is. With that, I'll take the safe bet here.

USC - 33
Ohio State - 20

Fantasy Football Diary Week 1:
Well, here we go. Season kicks off tonight (Thursday). I've got the Steelers defense so I'll be glued to the tube tonight. QB, Defense, kicker and tight end are set. I'm debating the "real" scoring positions. Here's what I had for my core scoring guys.

WR: Steve Smith (vs. Philly), Percy Harvin (at Cleveland), and Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Niners).

RB: Steve Slaton (vs. Jets), and Pierre Thomas (vs. Lions)

QB: Donovan McNabb (vs. Carolina).

Looks like Pierre Thomas is hurt and I can't imagine the Saints taking a chance when they are playing the Lions. I had Marshawn Lynch as one of my backups and who knows when he'll be back. Sooo, I went and picked up Ray Rice (Ravens playing Chiefs) with hopes that he can come big. I think by mid October he's getting the bulk of the carries over McGahee, but I digress.

I'm also looking at swapping Steve Smith (the Carolina one by the way) with Anthony Gonzalez as the Colts are playing Jacksonville who may be more suspect than Michael Jackson's doctor. I do like Steve Smith...a lot, but I just don't know what I'm going to get with Delhomme. Someone's gotta throw it to him, right? On the flip side, I think Peyton Manning may be able to get the ball to Gonzalez a time or two. Plus, Gonzalez has upped his catches steadily since he's been in the league and with Marvin "I'm a nice guy, but run a shady night club in Philly" Harrison gone, he should get ample opportunities. To hell with it, I'm doing it. Week 1 starters include:

QB: McNabb
RB: Steve Slaton and Ray Rice
WR: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald and Anthony Gonzalez
TE: Kevin Boss
Kicker: Ryan Longwell (with a first name like that, he's got to be good...right?)
Defense: Steelers

Already halftime of the game and I already love this whole fantasy football thing. I may change my tune after 6 weeks or so, but I'm loving it.

NFL Notes:
  • I'd say Kerry Collins is doing his best to prove those who are saying no chance he repeats last year's success are wrong. Hafltime against the Steelers (in Pittsburgh) and he's 13-21 for 150+ yards with a TD and a pick. It's early, but that's a hell of a start against this defense.
  • Pretty good opening night game here in Pittsburgh - tied game with just over 2 mins to play. My first thought was Pittsburgh is making some good plays, but they look a tad rusty (as I expect all teams will look rusty). My second thought is Tennessee's defense looks REAL good. Albert who?
  • Let's get this out of the way now - my super bowl pick (why the hell not?) is Green Bay over New England. Write it down.
  • Bill Simmons noted this interesting (disturbing?) little fact in this week's column: Plaxico Burress accidentally shot himself in the leg while illegally carrying a handgun in a nightclub and got a jail sentence that was 30 TIMES LONGER than Donte Stallworth who accidentally killed a pedestrian while driving drunk (and allegedly high). Another stellar endorsement for our wonderful justice system.
  • Classic stat graphic NBC just put up on the screen. First play of the drive for the Steelers with a 1:30 to play and Big Ben completes his first past. Stat at bottom reads: Roethlisberger 1/1 for 12 yards this drive. Guys, let's give it a few plays before we start putting up "this drive" stats on the screen. Just an ounce of credit for us viewers would be nice.
  • While you're writing down my predictions - write this one down. The Steelers will not be returning to the super bowl.
  • Put me down as one who believes that given our current economic environment, the NFL should back off on it's blackout rules - especially in Detroit where I think they're looking at an unemployment rate of just under 118%. You can't expect blue-collar, unemployed folks to pay white-collar prices for tickets, parking, concessions, etc.
  • How in the world are the Bengals favored by more than 4 points against the Broncos. I know Denver's off season has seemed like a bad episode of the Oakland Raiders' show, but really? The Bengals? Put me down for next month's mortgage payment on the Broncos covering.
  • This is not an NFL note, but did anyone see the Georgia Tech/Clemson game? From the sounds of it, it may rival the above-mentioned Miami/FSU game. Great start to the year for CFB.
  • Just because I'm watching this game live as I type this, another observation on the Steelers - Big Ben looks a little jumpy and ancy in the pocket. He's getting all sorts of time from his O-line, but he's got happy feet. I don't know, he looks kind of like some chick came out of nowhere and accused him of rape like 3 years ago. You know the look I'm talking about, right?
  • This the only time you'll ever hear me side with a player in this situation - I'm with you Seymour, I wouldn't show up in Oakland either.
  • Speaking of Oakland, who's still buying season tickets there?

Non-Sports Thoughts:
  • It's 2009, how have we not found a better vending machine where chips don't get caught in those little twirling spirals? I wonder if anyone has gone completely postal (I mean, like throwing sh*t around the room) when this has happened. Can you blame them? What's most amazing is like 86% of the time, shaking the machine wildly won't get them to fall. I had a run in with some cheddar Sun chips that got a little wild. I'm in our lobby shaking this machine side-to-side doing all I could to will those chips to drop and by God they wouldn't fall. I finally uttered, "damnit, to hell with it". Little did I know the Asian lunch bunch was silently watching me with the same blank stare on all of their faces. If you weren't me, I bet it was classic.
  • I'll give it to Brett Favre - the Sears commercials with him waffling on buying a TV is pretty damn funny. Give the guy credit, he can make fun of himself pretty good - gotta respect that.
  • Memo to current and future congressmen/women - when the President (whomever it is) is addressing Congress, you really can't shout out "You're a Liar!" at any point during his speech...or ever really. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mr. Wilson may not be continuing his tenure as a congressman after this session. Who knows, I'm just guessing. You take one on the chin from your own party like that and it can't bode well.
  • My good buddy Vassberg sent me this YouTube clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsAa9VmwOaI) from a parliamentary debate across the pond. I'll tell you what I told him - within the first 20 seconds I had at least 15 jokes swirling around in my head, but couldn't put any of them together because my head literally exploded. Is this real? Is this how these folks govern? I love it - I may move over there and live for like 2 years just to get a closer look. I love how polite they sound even when they're being sh*tty. I will watch this at least 13 more times before the weekend.
  • I can't wait until hunting season. I'm starting to get that itch.
  • One more CFB note here - check out the comment from my last post to see what a hard-core aggie thinks about Texas A&M's chances this year. Keep in mind my old buddy and colleague Bud is a little...passionate about his aggies. Good news Bud, I've added another aggie to the list - welcome Creed Ford. My message to the two of you is this - the Aggies will replace the Baylor Bears as the cellar dweller of the Big 12 South this year. I'm not saying it sticks, but I think it happens.
  • Dear God, please stop sending me your stupid updates on Mafia Wars on facebook - it is sooooo stupid.
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend.

Sunday, September 06, 2009

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

All in all a pretty darn good opening day for college football. Some great games and of course a few surprises. Here are my observations from an eventful Saturday afternoon - we'll start with the good.

The Big 12
With one minor little blemish, it was a damn good day for the Big 12. Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, A&M, and Tech all won games they were supposed to win. Any of those teams could have lost and wouldn't have been a huge shock, but they all won convincingly. Meanwhile, Baylor strolls into Winston-Salem, NC and beat a pretty decent Wake Forest team. That's a very good win for Baylor - gotta be a huge confidence builder.

The big win for the conference has to be Oklahoma State's convincing win over Georgia. By and far the best part of the Cowboys' victory has to be their defensive showing. I know Georgia was breaking in some new (and key) offensive players, but holding a team like Georgia to 10 points is always a good thing. Offensively, it seemed to take the Cowboys a bit of time to get going and get in sync, but they were able to pull it together. I will say, Zac Robinson didn't look great and early on he was making some really bad throws. I'm not sure if he was injured at all, but he didn't look too sharp. Bryant make a couple of nice catches after shaking off the cobwebs from a vicious hit he took early on. All in all, a good win for the Cowboys, but honestly, they didn't look as impressive as I was thinking they would. We'll see - have to keep in mind it's opening week and they'll certainly improve.

Texas' Offense
The high octane Longhorn offense certainly lived up to expectations. But honestly, what did you expect? They aren't playing Alabama's defense or anything, but they did look good. I'll get to Vondrell McGee later (in the bad section), but I loved seeing the 200 yards rushing as a team. Oh, and let's all say hello to one DJ Monroe. He's a redshirt freshman listed as a wide receiver, but ran the ball 9 times and returned a punt for a TD. And yeah, he's fast. I look forward to seeing him included in some set plays in the near future. And how about John Chiles? 3 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown. And Colt was Colt - you think that McCoy and Shipley will put up some numbers this year?

I was also quite pleased with one Garrett Gilbert - his presence seemed calm and cool and he had a very nice TD run, absorbing a couple of hits along the way. Very nice debut.

Alabama
Damn. I mean, damn. I really thought Virginia Tech was going to take this one, but it doesn't help when you don't defend the run. The Hokies second year QB just couldn't get his passing game going, and of course the Bama defense had a little something to do with that. Alabama threw up just short of 500 yards of offense, and only gave up 155. That's impressive considering the Crimson Tide were breaking in a brand new offense. 268 of those nearly 500 were on the ground and that's against a historically very strong rush defense. Great, great way to start the season for Bama.

USC, Florida, Texas
All big winners in game where they were supposed to be big winners. Florida won by 59 and Texas won by 39 and neither of them covered.

And now, The Bad of the weekend...

Texas' Defense and Special Teams
One of the key things I was looking for in this game was how the special teams would play. Well, it wasn't good. They gave up 175 total return yards. One would say that when you score 59 points, you're kicking off A LOT. And they're right. But this is still a pretty high number. I'll ask this for what seems like the upteenth time - why can't we kick the ball out of the end zone? Ever.

And the defense gave up just shy of 300 total yards of offense and 20 points. I'm a bit surprised that the Horns gave up that many points. Although I will concede that one of those scores was a 75 yard bomb on broken coverage, but I just don't like the 20 I see up there. Definitely some things to work on, especially up front on defense.

Oklahoma
It's certainly early to be uttering the "P" word (panic), but this doesn't look good for the Sooners. First off, it's apparent that the concerns in OU's offensive line are certainly validated. Bradford was knocked down 3 times before sustaining his shoulder injury. That may be more than he was hit all of last year. Throw in a redshirt freshman and that doesn't bode well for the foreseeable future. The good news is they get Idaho State and Tulsa before a bye week, but after that, it gets a bit tougher: at Miami, Baylor, Texas and at Kansas.

Who knows how long Bradford will be out (not to mention Gresham), but I think it would be fair to say that with an injury on your throwing shoulder, it may take him a while to get back to form. We all know how the system works and OU can certainly still find themselves in the championship game, but now they don't have the luxury of losing to Texas and still falling ass backwards into the game. And assuming Bradford misses a minimum of 2 weeks (which is what I seem to read/hear most), he's out of any heisman discussion.

Vondrell McGee
Just a few days after being named the number one RB, Vondrell proceeds to go out and lose 2 fumbles in the first half.....they lost zero last year. I think that's why we saw the business-as-usual running back by committee approach for most of the game. Look, I like Vondrell a lot, but you can't put the ball on the carpet. You just can't. With Fozzy Whitaker getting healthy and the debut of DJ "Usain Bolt" Monroe, Vondrell may struggle to get 15 carries in a game like he got on Saturday. I expected him to have at least 20 touches, but that won't happen anytime soon.

And of course, The Ugly....

THE Ohio State
I'll preface this with I suspect that the Buckeyes may have been looking ahead to their battle with USC next week, but I was astounded at the lack of defense, a usual strength for this program. The Buckeyes gave up 342 yards (186 on the ground) to this Navy team. I'll tell you this, if they don't right the ship on the run defense, they have no chance against Southern Cal. Great ending to the game and very exciting to watch, but it was almost a disaster for Ohio State. Like I said, I think they were likely looking way ahead and I fully expect to see a much more focused OSU team next Saturday night.

OU Offensive Line
I know I've hit on this, but these guys were really terrible. As expected, BYU brought some unconventional blitzes and it's clear these guys are going to be a work in progress.

The ACC
In addition to the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Wake Forest losses, let's see how the rest of the league stacked up. For starters, Duke lost to Richmond and Virginia lost to William and Mary. For those of you who aren't well versed in the levels of college football - those are division II teams. North Carolina State only gave up 7 points....and lost 7-3 to South Carolina. One can only hope that the Florida State vs. Miami game on Monday night will provide some saving face for the conference. Hell, I had this conference as a more competitive "dark horse" type league for lack of a better term. Well, turns out there are numerous other terms I could have used. Like suck.

That's what I got for opening weekend gang. Good news is we're on a short week, we've got a few very high-profile match ups and of course, NFL starts this weekend. Does it get any better?

Non-Sports Thoughts for the Week:
Memo to the people who are raising hell about the President of the United States addressing school children directly and sending a message of staying in school, working hard, blah, blah, blah - you know, usual presidential messages to school children: this is just dumb (and so are you). I still don't know what the big deal is here. Haven't past presidents done this before? Reagan, Carter, Bush 1 - they all did this. Did they face any of this mindless, manufactured bullsh*t when they did it? And has anyone actually read the speech? Is it even done yet? What, do you think he's going to try and convert your children to "socialists"? If you do think/worry about that, than you are REALLY dumb.

I had a chance to watch Meet the Press a bit on Sunday and this topic came up (albeit for a very short time because it's not really worth a whole lot of discussion) and I was quite happy to see their round table of conservatives and liberals all agree that this was ridiculous and "stupid" (yes, that word was used repeatedly). If you don't like the President's policies (be it Obama, Bush, whomever) that's fine, you're likely more than justified in that, but to take this sort of action over a speech to school children on the importance of staying in school? Sheesh, get a grip folks. Aren't you making a bigger deal out of it by doing this than if you were to never have brought it up? Just another example in a loooooong list of reasons as to why the average Joe Q. Public out there is just as much part of the problem as the ignorant, incompetent jackasses in Washington.

That's what I got. Short week this week so I'll be back on Friday with a look at the big games next weekend.