Saturday, March 24, 2007

Elite 8

Say what you will about the lack of upsets - this is the up side, we get to see great games with the elite teams. You really couldn't ask for better games this time of year. And it's official - I'm out of the money on my brackets...damnit. Stupid Ohio State killed me.

I think the game of the tournament (and maybe of the last few tournaments) may be the UCLA/Kansas game. Both teams have had some issues in the first half of games, but then turn it on in the second half. Afflalo MUST have a better offensive game than he's had lately. He usually puts up more points than he has been. In one of my brackets I have UCLA going on to win it all and in the other, Kansas. I went into this thinking these were the 2 best teams. But...

I am very impressed with Florida. Sports hacks are searching high and low for a reason to pick against this team every game because they've played a lot of close games. The thing is, they are winning - and they know how to close a game out in the end, regardless of how they've looked all game. I think Horford is going to be a pretty damn good NBAer. I still think it's way too hard to win this thing two straight years, but these guys just may pull it off. I do think their inside game will be too much and will get the Ducks in foul trouble. I think it's a close game with UF pulling away late in the second half. If Oregon doesn't hit their 3s they'll get blown out of the gym.

I've got to eat a little crow today - I was certain that Georgetown would easily handle Vandy. Not only did that not happen, I think Jeff Green got away with a walk there on that last shot. It was a great shot though. Great ending to the game and good tough win for Georgetown. Can't wait to see the inside battle between G'town and UNC on Sunday - that should be one hell of a battle. I picked Georgetown in the finals and I'm sticking with that.

I'm going Memphis over Ohio State today - This will be the most disciplined and organized team they've played in the tournament. Will be interesting to see how they handle Oden.

I"ve got no clue on the KU/UCLA game, but in the interest of making a call I'm going with the Bruins in a close game - 3 points or less.

NBA Notes:

Alright, I can no longer NOT hit on this. Kobe Freaking Bryant! I know, I know, a lot of people hate this guy for one reason or another, but let's examine this guy over the last couple of years. So after the Shaq/Kobe implosion people turned on this guy - much of it definitely justified. So after a year and a half or so of the "selfish Kobe" chatter, he starts to play more sefless basketball and they go on a nice run to end last year, but the truth is the Lakers are 85% Kobe and 15% everyone else. At least. So in the last 6 weeks after the All-star game (and leading up to the game) they had a few HORRIBLE losing streaks - on the road and at home. So in the last 4 games, he's put up over 200 points and low and behold, they've won all 4 games. Look, this guy will always take heat for many reasons, some justified and some not. But this guy is, without question, the best player in the league. I'm talking complete player. He's on the all defensive team every year. He can score from anywhere on the floor, when ever he wants to. Simply put, he can carry a team all by himself - he's done it the last 2 years with what will probably be 2 consecutive playoff runs.

Don't get me wrong, they aren't going to win the whole thing. Hell, they probably won't win a series, but they'll be there - especially if Kobe continues to carry this team. So say what you will, but remember this - he's done something that no one else except Wilt Chamberlain has ever done, not even MJ. The fact that he's not in the MVP discussion right now is beyond ridiculous - he should have shared it with Dirk last year and he probably should be sharing it with Dirk/Nash again this year.

I will say this, the Lakers are 1 consistent scorer and 1 lock down defender from being in the discussion.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Showdown in the Alamo Dome

Aggies Blow Their Shot:
You know, as much as I was actually routing for the aggies, I still get somewhat amused when they lose. I did have them in the final four in one of my brackets so a bit upset about that (I think I'm officially out of the hunt in my pools, but I could be wrong). But what's most surprising is the fashion in which they lost. Who would have ever thought that Acie Law missing a layup, and for him, an easy layup, that would have iced the game? That and they pulled a Texas and let Memphis get 3-4 consecutive offensive rebounds while they stood around and watched them. Memphis got real lucky. REAL lucky in that game. They played well, but they should have lost, no question there.

It will be interesting to see how Gillespie will be able to reload after losing 3/5 of his starting five to graduation. And that's assuming Gillespie doesn't make the move to Kentucky, which is a real possibility (why wouldn't ANYONE leave College Station for Lexington). More on that in a second.

Kansas Survives:
That Kansas Southern Illinois game was a perfect of example of a team winning on superior athletic ability alone. No doubt SIU is a good team and hung tough with arguably the most talented/deepest team in the tournament. But Kansas should not have let that game remain that close down the stretch. I suspect they may have been looking ahead a bit to UCLA - even though UCLA had not even played yet. Funny.

UCLA Continues Methodical Role:
I'll admit, I got to see very little of this game, but what I did see was methodical, consistent basketball. These guys may not be as flashy as the Jayhawks, but they can are just as good a team as Kansas. Can't wait for this one.

Oh Those Buckeyes (and Oh Man Those Vols):
Many folks may argue whether or not Tenn blew that game or did OSU have a monumental rally. I think a little bit of both. As the game progressed you certainly started to see more and more panic set in with the Vols players - I was VERY surprised at that. This is a team that strolled into Columbus earlier this year and damn near won the game. They shut it down pretty early in my mind - specifically jacking up 3s when it wasn't at all necessary (sound familiar Texas fans?). With Oden plagued by fouls all night, Ron Lewis stepped up and played a HUGE game - which seems to be the norm for him in March I guess. I still say OSU is the weakest of the #1s, but let's be honest, it really doesn't matter as long as you keep winning. The beauty of March Madness is a win is a win - and that's how it should be treated, especially at this stage of the tournament. Should be an interesting game between Memphis and OSU - I have absolutely no clue in that one.

Looking Ahead:
- I think the all of the teams favored tonight will win (UNC, Florida, Oregon and Georgetown).

- I think Saturday's UCLA/Kansas game may be one of the best tournament games in a while. Can you imagine if Afflalo actually hits his shots?

- One of these days (Saturday or next weekend) OSU is going to face a top-tier team that will know how to better handle a lead - and that will be too much. I've seen writers/talking heads ragging on the Bruins and Florida for not playing complete games - OSU has played 1 complete game. They will not make it to the championship game.

- Kudos to Tubby Smith for bolting Kentucky - had he stayed (and they kept him) it would have been a long and painful year for him. NOW, let the circus begin. No clue who they are looking at most seriously, but I have to imagine Billy Gillespie is up there as is Billy Donovan and even our own Rick Barnes. I think Gillespie ends up there before it's all said and done.

I'll keep updating throughout the weekend - stay tuned...

Monday, March 19, 2007

And Then There Were 16

We've got 2 rounds down and what a weekend of basketball. Particularly on Saturday - multiple OT games which is always great! I've got my thoughts and observations from a terrific first weekend of games. But first, you know I can't get too far without ranting about those pesky Longhorns.

I don't want to sound like an ass and say I didn't tell you so...but I told you so. Specifically I'm referring to my continuous harp on their piss-poor defense and rebounding. That game was by and far Texas' worst performance of the year. But before I get to my ripping of them for the USC game, let's briefly touch on the New Mexico State game. You know, I kind of chalked that one up to the fact that it was their first NCAA Tournament game and they had quite a few jitters - how many easy layups did they miss in the first half? Let's be honest, that win was a very ugly win against a far inferior team. Yet again in the second half they blow a 16 point lead and at one point, get down by 1. The fact that they won that game by 12 is only an indication of how good of free throw shooters they are.

Now about this USC game. The thing that is most frustrating to me is that at no point in that game yesterday did Texas ever truly compete. Moreover, they were unable to match USC's intensity. That's unacceptable and I'm chalking that up to coaching (yes Marc Madeley, I said it). More on that in a minute. At the end of the day, it came down to rebounding and defense - as it always does with Texas. If anyone ever questioned my knocking them for this, you can no longer doubt how poor of a defensive team they are - especially the guards. Augustin, when this team needed him the most, played the worst - just like the conference tournament. I hope you're sitting down Texas fans because I'm coming right out with it - until I see a vast improvement next year, especially in big games, DJ Augustin will be just another overrated guard in the country. I'm not sure if it's the level of competition or maybe the fact that he just ran out of steam at the end of the year, but I can't understand how this guy could come out and put a performance like that in such a big game. Don't get me wrong, he's obviously a talented player (15 pts and 6 assists a game is pretty darn impressive), but if you can't step up on the biggest stage then you're just another Chris Simms - great player, but comes up short in big games. I do believe he's going to improve next year, he is only a freshman after all. But with KD leaving (and I'm assuming he will) Augustin will have to REALLY be the man - I just hope he can do it.

Here are my thoughts for these Horns heading into next year:
Coaching - I'm a huge Barnes fan. In fact, I was just arguing on Friday night that he's one of the top 5-7 coaches in the country. BUT, I have been questioning his team's preparation over the past few weeks. I don't doubt how difficult it is to get a bunch of 18-year olds prepared for a big game, but nonetheless I'm scratching my head as to his job as of late. Particularly, why can't this team handle pressure well? Why can't they close teams out? WHY DON'T THEY PLAY BETTER DEFENSE/REBOUND BETTER????? Why don't they play/respond to more physical play by opposing teams? Lots of questions here that I'll be looking to improve next year.

Offense - Man O man, what is this team going to do when KD leaves? First and foremost, we have to establish an offensive game plan that doesn't live and die by the 3-point shot! I'm not sure that Texas actually has more than 1 or 2 set offensive plays. One thing that MUST happen next year is Justin Mason and Damion James must become relevant elements of the offense. We know James is capable of scoring as we've seen him do it. I'm still not sold that Just Mason is anything special though, but he'll certainly have his opportunities. HUGE question mark for next year here.

Defense - All I can say is if this team doesn't improve their defense by about 150% next year they will be significantly worse than they are this year as a whole. What's most surprising is Barnes' teams typically are very strong defensively - not sure what is happening here, but they are not even close to playing acceptable defense right now. Particularly Abrams and Augustin. If these guys can't stop opposing guards from penetrating (and they can't), then we are in a world of hurt. Anything is better than what we saw this year.

Intensity - This was a big one from yesterday. They got steam rolled from the moment the first second ticked off the clock and played tentative and slower all game long. Another element of Rick Barnes teams that is usually much better. I think he really needs to harp on playing more physical next year. I'd also like to see him go and recruit players who are role players - those guys who play "in-your-face" defense and grab rebounds.

And that's all I've got to say about that...

Quick Hits from Tournament Weekend:
- So first time in a long time that we didn't see 12 seed upset a 5 seed this year. Weird.

- Those Ohio State Luckeyes got, well...lucky. I actually had Xavier knocking off OSU in the second round in one of my brackets (and took a lot of shit for it too). First and foremost Xavier, make your free throws. BUT, that last foul by Greg Oden was without question a flagrant/intentional foul. Xavier should have had 2 shots AND the ball. I was stunned that they let that go - Oden hit the guy like a linebacker knocking a receiver on his ass. The guy came up off the ground before ending up on his back. Xavier had their chances though - OT without Oden and they just folded.

- And speaking of OSU - I was greatly unimpressed with their performance. I think Tenn knocks them off this coming weekend. Oden is very VERY good though, that dude is a premier shot blocker in the college game right now. He's no Kevin Durant though.

- As a Longhorn fan, I'm actually pretty happy that we don't have to face the Tarheels. I'm not sure who we would get to guard Tyler Hansbrough or Ty Lawson - those guys would have shredded our defense.

- For the record, my lovely wife is the only one in our pool who has UNLV in the fnal four.

- I think the Pitt/UCLA game may be the game of the next round.

- I think Texas A&M beats up on the Memphis Tigers pretty good.

- I think if I'm Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators, I'm taking Butler very VERY seriously.

- Biggest blowout of the next round: Georgetown over Vanderbilt.