Return of the Lance

As promised fans I'm including a Tour de France write up from good friend and avid Rant reader, Alan V., who also happens to be the foremost expert on professional cycling in the Austin area....or at least he's the one person I know who knows more about it than anyone else I've spoken with on the topic. I figured that since Lance is back in action at least some of you would be interested. Enjoy!

This is a recap as of Stage 6 yesterday...

Today is Stage 6 in the Tour de France, and perennial winner Lance Armstrong is only 2 tenths of a second out of first place. Hello victory # 8, right? Wrong.

For those of you (yes, Ryan, that means you) who don't understand the TdF, let me 'splain it to you. This isn't a race—it is 21 races. Some stages are flat, some stages are in the mountains, some are time trials. Each discipline favors a different type of rider. Only a select group of riders come to the race with the expectation of contending for the overall title (this year there are only 8-10 riders out of the 180 on 20 teams who are legitimate contenders for the overall crown). This is a grueling physical completion, in which expending too much effort on any stage can ruin your ability to keep up on the following day. The overall race leaders are in it for the big picture, not the individual stage wins. With that in mind, it is entirely conceivable for a rider to win the TdF without ever winning a stage - simply by finishing well on every stage.

Thus far in the race we've had a short time trial (which created larger time gaps than usual because there was a significant climb in the middle of it), several flat stages, and a team time trial. The early time gaps were established during the opening time trial - in which Lance finished 10th (posting only the 4th fastest time on his own team). But when the road turns uphill, the true contenders separate themselves from the pretenders - and it is in the mountains that the crown of the TdF is decided. Where we currently have time gaps of less than 5 minutes between race leader Fabian Cancellara and the rider in 100th place, by the end of the day on Friday, there will be a 5 minute gap between the race leader and the 10th-place rider. 5-time winner Miguel Indurain established the formula for winning a modern Tour: Ride one great time trial, and ride well in the mountains. Lance followed that formula to a tee in his years of winning the tour, using the mountain stages to stamp his authority on the race. When the race turned uphill, he would simply raise his pedaling cadence and leave the competition struggling to catch up.

So why not this year? Because Lance is not going to be able to separate himself from the competition as he did in the past. His 37-year-old legs will not allow it. But one of his teammates will: Alberto Contador. Contador won the TdF in 2007, but was not allowed to defend his title in 2008 because his Astana team was banned from competing. No problem for Contador - he simply won the 2 other major tours, the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a España. But the Tour de France is the grandest of the grand tours, and this year, Contador has dedicated himself to winning "La Grande Boucle" (much as Lance did for 7 consecutive years). He skipped the Giro so he could focus his preparation on the Tour. Yes, there are other competitors in the race, but Lance could ride tactically and keep in contact with them. He will not be able to do so with Contador. I look for Contador to open a gap of 2 minutes over Lance on Friday's stage, thus effectively ending any controversy over who should be leading the team.

A caveat, though: Cycling is a funny sport. If you misjudge replenishing food and water during the course of any one stage, you can have a bad day. It happened to Lance a few years ago (though he was fortunate and stayed within striking distance). If you attack at the wrong point in a stage, you can expend all your energy without gaining anything - allowing your competition to counter attack later. If Contador has a bad day or makes a mistake, all bets are off. But Contador and Lance both have the same race director—Johann Bruyneel—who is the Phil Jackson of cycling. A master race tactician, he excels at putting his riders in the best position to win. And he wants to win - with Lance or Contador. He will manage Contador's race just as he does Lance's and will likely not let him make a mistake.

Yes, Lance has ridden very well - especially given that he's ancient in cycling terms. But the *real* race of the TdF hasn't begun yet. We'll get a much better gauge of Lance's form tomorrow, and though I expect him to ride will, it will not be good enough for the pride of Austin, Texas. I expect Lance to make a good showing in this tour, possibly even a podium finish (Lance's Astana team could realistically take the first 3 places in the final standings). But this is Contador's race, and I expect him to demonstrate that tomorrow.

Mid Summer Excitement?

It's true, and I'm not talking about the MLB All-Star rosters. Here's a confession: I have no idea who half of those players are. But seriously, some unexpected excitement showed itself over the past week or so and it really threw me off as July is the official "Sports Depression" month where one can feel a sense of loss or emptiness...I've said too much already.

Wimbledon:
Yeah, I said it, Wimbledon. Ironic that most of my random (and rare) tennis takes are usually ripping Andy Roddick for being overrated. But not this time - this may be one of those rare instances where the loser ends up looking more impressive than the winner. This was, by all accounts, a truly epic match. Raise your hand if you actually gave Roddick a better than tiny chance of winning this match, or even making it competitive? If you're raising your hand, you're lying. He came into this match with an 18-2 (or something like that) record against Federer and most of those 18 losses weren't close. Meanwhile, Federer was going for a little milestone of his own. I thought Roger would trounce him in 3 or 4 sets. I'm glad I was wrong.

The beauty of this match is it was all about Roddick playing *up* to the competition and not Federer playing down. How Roddick (either of them really) had the energy they had in that final marathon set is beyond me - his serves were still hitting 130+ late in the final set. That's crazy. I think when Roddick thinks back on this (which I'm sure he will about 5 million times over the next year), I don't think he'll be able to get past the tie breaker of the second set where he had like 3 or 4 straight chances to take the set and he lost it. Rather than being up 2 sets to nil and putting 1,000% of the pressure on Roger for the rest of the match, it was tied at a set apiece and Federer had new life. After that I think experience just took over.

One more amazing note - Federer never broke Roddick's serve until that final game in the final marathon set. Imagine that - winning in a Wimbledon final and not breaking your opponent until the final game of a 16-14 fifth set. Either way, great, great match and I'm glad I got to see it. Surely an instant classic. And again, big kudos to Andy Roddick - had he faced any other player in the world and played like that, he would have won easily. Hopefully a sign of things to come for Roddick.

Even More NBA Trade Excitement...

• Halleluja!! For all 2 of you that are regular readers of this blog, you know all too well how badly I wanted Artest on the Lakers for the last couple of years and now my dreams have come true. Don't get me wrong, I like Ariza and was excited about his potential, but let's be honest, we only saw this level of play from him in the playoffs. I'm not sure he was worth the money he was asking for. And besides, if you can get Ron Artest for *less* money? Forget about it - that is an upgrade at the position, pure and simple. Ariza was a good defender on the perimeter, but Artest can defend everywhere on the court. He's also better at getting his own shot and getting hard rebounds. I'm giddy - on paper, this certainly swung the pendulum back over in LA's favor.
  
• BUT....they still have to get Odom back. Absolutely, positively have to do this.
  
• What also makes me giddy is that Lebron flew to LA to dine with Ron-Ron and try and recruit him to Cleveland. If he had gone to Cleveland, that would have been a HUGE coup for them - getting both Shaq and Artest. But, it wasn't meant to be. And now it appears Lebron is trying to pry Ariza away from Houston before he signs the dotted line. Desperate much?
  
• Picking up Sheed was a solid move by the Celtics - although it doesn't get them any younger, it will certainly help to take some of the minutes off of Garnett. He *is* that team and if he's not healthy, they don't have much a chance, in my humble opinion. And now it appears they're going after Grant Hill. This too isn't a bad move as it would give them another solid wing player, but again, you ain't getting any younger. They're clearly pushing for 1, maybe 2 more years for a shot at the title, but then what? I can't imagine all of these guys staying healthy all year long, but we'll see.
  
• Wow - Hedo leaves a team that took him to the finals for a team that is a bubble playoff team? I know he mentioned there was more for him and his family in terms of a more international flare, but do you even care about going to a contender? I thought for sure he was in Portland where he would certainly help to elevate that team. I guess Canadian dollars were a bit more attractive....which right now they probably are.
  
• Really Cuban? $25 million over three years for Jason Kidd? I guess he wanted to ensure that no one would come close to luring him away....and he did just that. This was a gross overpayment and I can't help but to think it was just Mark's ego trying to cover up the fact that he made a huge mistake by trading Devon Harris for JKidd a couple of years back. Cuban, you're throwing fuel on a fire at this point. I like Kidd, I like him a lot (who doesn't?), but this is madness.
• And now rumor has it he's looking at Shawn Marion? Will be interesting to see what this team looks like next year.
  

Other Random Thoughts:

• Are we about done with the "Michael Jackson was the greatest thing ever" memorial marathon? This went beyond ridiculous about 3 or 4 days ago. And who's paying for all of this? Last I heard, the state of California was issuing IOUs. If I lived there and I heard that the city of LA or state paid even a single dime to this thing I would be pissed.
  
• I don't necessarily like or dislike Sarah Palin, nor do I really follow stories about her, but why does the media hound this chick so much? I don't know for sure, but I also get the feeling that her own party is kind of sick of her.
  
• Please stop handing out money to banks.
  
• Oh boy college football fans - the Senate subcommittee hearing on anti-trust issues and the BCS should be a barn burner today. Look for absolutely nothing to come out of this and absolutely nothing to change with the BCS for the next, ohhhh, ever. Quick memo to Orrin Hatch: GET BACK TO WORK!!!
  
• Horrible couple of months for Phil Mickelson - his mother was just diagnosed with breast cancer. Ugh - sorry Lefty, that sucks man.
  

That's all I got folks - enjoy the week.