Return of the Lance
As promised fans I'm including a Tour de France write up from good friend and avid Rant reader, Alan V., who also happens to be the foremost expert on professional cycling in the Austin area....or at least he's the one person I know who knows more about it than anyone else I've spoken with on the topic. I figured that since Lance is back in action at least some of you would be interested. Enjoy!
This is a recap as of Stage 6 yesterday...
Today is Stage 6 in the Tour de France, and perennial winner Lance Armstrong is only 2 tenths of a second out of first place. Hello victory # 8, right? Wrong.
For those of you (yes, Ryan, that means you) who don't understand the TdF, let me 'splain it to you. This isn't a race—it is 21 races. Some stages are flat, some stages are in the mountains, some are time trials. Each discipline favors a different type of rider. Only a select group of riders come to the race with the expectation of contending for the overall title (this year there are only 8-10 riders out of the 180 on 20 teams who are legitimate contenders for the overall crown). This is a grueling physical completion, in which expending too much effort on any stage can ruin your ability to keep up on the following day. The overall race leaders are in it for the big picture, not the individual stage wins. With that in mind, it is entirely conceivable for a rider to win the TdF without ever winning a stage - simply by finishing well on every stage.
Thus far in the race we've had a short time trial (which created larger time gaps than usual because there was a significant climb in the middle of it), several flat stages, and a team time trial. The early time gaps were established during the opening time trial - in which Lance finished 10th (posting only the 4th fastest time on his own team). But when the road turns uphill, the true contenders separate themselves from the pretenders - and it is in the mountains that the crown of the TdF is decided. Where we currently have time gaps of less than 5 minutes between race leader Fabian Cancellara and the rider in 100th place, by the end of the day on Friday, there will be a 5 minute gap between the race leader and the 10th-place rider. 5-time winner Miguel Indurain established the formula for winning a modern Tour: Ride one great time trial, and ride well in the mountains. Lance followed that formula to a tee in his years of winning the tour, using the mountain stages to stamp his authority on the race. When the race turned uphill, he would simply raise his pedaling cadence and leave the competition struggling to catch up.
So why not this year? Because Lance is not going to be able to separate himself from the competition as he did in the past. His 37-year-old legs will not allow it. But one of his teammates will: Alberto Contador. Contador won the TdF in 2007, but was not allowed to defend his title in 2008 because his Astana team was banned from competing. No problem for Contador - he simply won the 2 other major tours, the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a España. But the Tour de France is the grandest of the grand tours, and this year, Contador has dedicated himself to winning "La Grande Boucle" (much as Lance did for 7 consecutive years). He skipped the Giro so he could focus his preparation on the Tour. Yes, there are other competitors in the race, but Lance could ride tactically and keep in contact with them. He will not be able to do so with Contador. I look for Contador to open a gap of 2 minutes over Lance on Friday's stage, thus effectively ending any controversy over who should be leading the team.
A caveat, though: Cycling is a funny sport. If you misjudge replenishing food and water during the course of any one stage, you can have a bad day. It happened to Lance a few years ago (though he was fortunate and stayed within striking distance). If you attack at the wrong point in a stage, you can expend all your energy without gaining anything - allowing your competition to counter attack later. If Contador has a bad day or makes a mistake, all bets are off. But Contador and Lance both have the same race director—Johann Bruyneel—who is the Phil Jackson of cycling. A master race tactician, he excels at putting his riders in the best position to win. And he wants to win - with Lance or Contador. He will manage Contador's race just as he does Lance's and will likely not let him make a mistake.
Yes, Lance has ridden very well - especially given that he's ancient in cycling terms. But the *real* race of the TdF hasn't begun yet. We'll get a much better gauge of Lance's form tomorrow, and though I expect him to ride will, it will not be good enough for the pride of Austin, Texas. I expect Lance to make a good showing in this tour, possibly even a podium finish (Lance's Astana team could realistically take the first 3 places in the final standings). But this is Contador's race, and I expect him to demonstrate that tomorrow.
This is a recap as of Stage 6 yesterday...
Today is Stage 6 in the Tour de France, and perennial winner Lance Armstrong is only 2 tenths of a second out of first place. Hello victory # 8, right? Wrong.
For those of you (yes, Ryan, that means you) who don't understand the TdF, let me 'splain it to you. This isn't a race—it is 21 races. Some stages are flat, some stages are in the mountains, some are time trials. Each discipline favors a different type of rider. Only a select group of riders come to the race with the expectation of contending for the overall title (this year there are only 8-10 riders out of the 180 on 20 teams who are legitimate contenders for the overall crown). This is a grueling physical completion, in which expending too much effort on any stage can ruin your ability to keep up on the following day. The overall race leaders are in it for the big picture, not the individual stage wins. With that in mind, it is entirely conceivable for a rider to win the TdF without ever winning a stage - simply by finishing well on every stage.
Thus far in the race we've had a short time trial (which created larger time gaps than usual because there was a significant climb in the middle of it), several flat stages, and a team time trial. The early time gaps were established during the opening time trial - in which Lance finished 10th (posting only the 4th fastest time on his own team). But when the road turns uphill, the true contenders separate themselves from the pretenders - and it is in the mountains that the crown of the TdF is decided. Where we currently have time gaps of less than 5 minutes between race leader Fabian Cancellara and the rider in 100th place, by the end of the day on Friday, there will be a 5 minute gap between the race leader and the 10th-place rider. 5-time winner Miguel Indurain established the formula for winning a modern Tour: Ride one great time trial, and ride well in the mountains. Lance followed that formula to a tee in his years of winning the tour, using the mountain stages to stamp his authority on the race. When the race turned uphill, he would simply raise his pedaling cadence and leave the competition struggling to catch up.
So why not this year? Because Lance is not going to be able to separate himself from the competition as he did in the past. His 37-year-old legs will not allow it. But one of his teammates will: Alberto Contador. Contador won the TdF in 2007, but was not allowed to defend his title in 2008 because his Astana team was banned from competing. No problem for Contador - he simply won the 2 other major tours, the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a España. But the Tour de France is the grandest of the grand tours, and this year, Contador has dedicated himself to winning "La Grande Boucle" (much as Lance did for 7 consecutive years). He skipped the Giro so he could focus his preparation on the Tour. Yes, there are other competitors in the race, but Lance could ride tactically and keep in contact with them. He will not be able to do so with Contador. I look for Contador to open a gap of 2 minutes over Lance on Friday's stage, thus effectively ending any controversy over who should be leading the team.
A caveat, though: Cycling is a funny sport. If you misjudge replenishing food and water during the course of any one stage, you can have a bad day. It happened to Lance a few years ago (though he was fortunate and stayed within striking distance). If you attack at the wrong point in a stage, you can expend all your energy without gaining anything - allowing your competition to counter attack later. If Contador has a bad day or makes a mistake, all bets are off. But Contador and Lance both have the same race director—Johann Bruyneel—who is the Phil Jackson of cycling. A master race tactician, he excels at putting his riders in the best position to win. And he wants to win - with Lance or Contador. He will manage Contador's race just as he does Lance's and will likely not let him make a mistake.
Yes, Lance has ridden very well - especially given that he's ancient in cycling terms. But the *real* race of the TdF hasn't begun yet. We'll get a much better gauge of Lance's form tomorrow, and though I expect him to ride will, it will not be good enough for the pride of Austin, Texas. I expect Lance to make a good showing in this tour, possibly even a podium finish (Lance's Astana team could realistically take the first 3 places in the final standings). But this is Contador's race, and I expect him to demonstrate that tomorrow.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 9:54 AM
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