Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Big Game!

Alright everybody, it's been a few days and we've had a chance to calm down after that "game" last weekend.

There are larger matters at hand - namely, horny toads.

There are a number of excuses we can make - first game jitters, playing down to the competition, looking ahead, etc. At the end of the day, they were less than good in all aspects of the game. Let's be honest, TCU is not USC or Florida...but they are a really good team and you just know that they will be pumped up for this game, looking to extend their dominance over the Big 12 - they've been beating Big 12 teams left and right over the past 5 years including wins over Tech and Oklahoma amongst others.

The good news is they say that teams largest improvement over the year typically occurs between weeks one and two - the bad news is the same logic can be applied to the Horned Frogs. Either way, I know TCU is dying to play this game and I simply hope Texas is.

Texas has to be more physical on both lines - they were manhandled last week and really pushed around. Ark. State's defense was in the offensive backfield quite a bit and TCU has a much better defense. I'm sorry, but I still contend that Jamaal Charles is just and OK running back and not going to be able to be a premier back. We had first and goal on the 3 and couldn't put it in the end zone on 4 straight running plays. There's no excuse for that - I don't care who you're playing. That was most discouraging.

Defensively, it just never seemed that they were on the same page or had any control of the line of scrimmage. Arkansas State had a very well balanced game - and they got all of their yards on first and second down (their third and fourth down efficiency was terrible). How many times did those guys run that naked bootleg around the end without a Texas defender in sight for 20 yards? They literally ran that play 3 times in one of their drives and picked up over 15 yards on two of them. There are definitely some things that need addressing on defense - and where were these crazy blitz schemes I hear so much about from McDuff?

Bottom line is that they never really had control of the game and showed no sense of urgency about it. They absolutely must be able to match TCU's surge and emotion early or it could get out of hand - you know they will come up going all out with aggressive plays on both sides of the ball. And I know they typically don't like to show their cards early (or ever in recent years), but we absolutely must be more imaginative on offense...anyone else sick of having to hear/say this?

Here's my take: Texas has to play head and shoulders better than they did last week to just compete - TCU seemed like they are halfway there already. Texas most certainly has more talent, but the TCU coaching staff most certainly has more balls and are willing to be more aggressive - I don't think anyone can really question that. I think this will be a fairly tight game and again, if Texas can control the tempo, they should be able to pull it out...I'm just not convinced they will. And one thing to note Texas fans - a really good win doesn't have to be a 25 point blowout - they could win by 4 points or less and still have a good win. TCU has little control over what conference they are in so don't judge them on that - they are a solid team and I hate to say, but I think they may just edge out Texas.

TCU - 24
Texas - 20


Now that I've got that out of my system, let's take a look at some of the other match-ups we've got this weekend.

Miami at Oklahoma:

I don't know about you, but I think I'm most looking forward to this game. Furthermore, I have no idea what to expect. You can't really say a whole lot about the OU/North Texas game because...well, it was N. Texas. It probably did wonders for their young players in terms of building confidence, but N. Texas is no powerhouse and are near the bottom on total offense. No doubt Miami's defense will come in and give young Bradford some fits - these guys are sick with talent and speed. It will be interesting to see how OU's veteran offensive line can handle the speed and quickness of those Miami defenders. Miami's offense will be the big question mark here. I think Miami's coaches will have this team ready to play - they still have a lot to prove and bounce back from to get back into the limelight. And you know Stoops will have these guys ready. I sense a very close game here and in the end, I'm giving the edge to the home team.

OU - 24
Miami - 21

Notre Dame at Penn State:

Charlie Weiss utterly embarrassed himself with the whole "I know who's playing QB, but not telling you" puppet show. At the end of the day, he threw all 3 of them in there and all 3 flopped. Now he's settling on Clausen which is smart merely from the PR/publicity perspective. But, I think it's official (and old Chuck won't admit this), he's now in a rebuilding year. This team will be lucky to win 5 games this year...VERY lucky. I just can't imagine their defense getting significantly better over the next 3-4 weeks and they have a fairly brutal schedule in that time. This group will give up a lot of points and will struggle to put up 2+ touchdowns in a game. Penn State will smother these guys.

Penn State - 27
Notre Dame - 12

Virginia Tech at LSU:
Tell me who's NOT excited about this game? This is a premier match-up in week 2 and you gotta love it. I think we'll learn a lot about both of these teams. LSU played solid against MSU last week in nasty, rainy conditions. VaTech struggled early with East Carolina and never seemed to get anything going offensively (7 of their 17 points came from the defense). If VaTech's offense is going to continue to struggle, this is not the team you want to face, not now or ever this year. LSU's defense should give Glennon all sorts of fits - a lot of the offense is going to depend on the running back Ore. What I'm most interested in seeing is how Matt Flynn handles the VaTech defensive speed and athleticism - this may be the best defense that LSU faces all year (except in practice). Above all of this, the one thing that stands out most in this game - it's a night game in Baton Rouge....the Indianapolis Colts would struggle in that environment. I'm definitely going with the home team in this one.

LSU - 28
VaTech - 17

Other Games to Keep an Eye On:
Nebraska at Wake Forest
Boise St. at Washington
South Florida at Auburn
S. Carolina at Georgia
UTEP at Texas Tech*

*For the preview of this game, check out:
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/56555

Polls:

Yes, I'm going to do my usual tirade on the polls - it gets more and more ridiculous the way college football (or rather, the AP, espn, SI, etc.) do their polls. When you have pre-season polls that are, literally, based on nothing more than a guess and an assumption of a team based on what happened 7-8 months earlier, it's going to cause some issues. Point being - Michigan. Now is it fair to say that Michigan was a bit overrated? Yea, probably so. But, they are now out of the top 25 and as such, essentially out of the national title hunt. But, what if they were to win the rest of their games by an average of 40 points? Would they gain any sort of respect from the writers/talking heads? Will people still say, "yea, but they lost to Appalachian State"? If they beat Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Wisconsin by 20-30 points each, doesn't that count for a lot more than what they did on opening day? I'm not sticking up for Michigan here, just making a point. I've said it before and I'll say it a hundred times every year - we should not have any "REAL" polls until the second week of October. And don't give me the "well the BCS doesn't come out until then" because these other polls play a part in determining the BCS so it does matter. Go look at the polls from week 0 to week 1 and see if you can make sense of the moves - I mean real sense. Let me save you some time - you can't. It's ridiculous. Guess what media hacks - you will still sell magazines and get web hits if you DO NOT have pre-season rankings, I promise.

Anyone else tired of the Colt Brennan thing? Hawaii is a lot like Tech - you can literally plug you or me into that system and we're going to put up a ton of yards. Leach has proven that he can put anyone in there and they will be successful. The annoying thing about Hawaii is that it's obvious that they are trying to rack up as many yards/TDs for this kid as they can. I'm sure he'll go and break Graham Harrell's record and that's great, but are they relevant and will they play anyone relevant?

Tennis:
That's right, tennis! I watched some of the Roddick/Federer match last night and although I think Roddick is one of the most over-rated athletes in professional sports, he did play quite well last night. My only beef with this match was that like 75% of it seemed to be serve (ace), serve/return (out), serve (ace), serve/return (out) - It is impressive how these guys can smash a 145 mph serve when they want, but I would like to see some volley going on - and when they did get some good vollies going, it was great. Federer should cruise through the rest of this with Roddick and Nadal out of the scene now. By the way, Nadal is abysmal on hard surfaces.

NFL:
My gosh, is it really here???!!!

Sunday, September 02, 2007

Opening Weekend Observations

What an opening weekend! Who would you rather be today, anyone in the city of Anne Arbor, or anyone on the North Texas football team? I think I might prefer a few months in a POW camp than either of those.

Here are my observations from the weekend so far...don't forget, we've got games today and tomorrow as well.

- I recently mentioned that I thought this would be Lloyd Carr's last season regardless of what happens - this pretty much sealed the deal. I can't fathom a scenario where he will be allowed to return, much less return on his own regardless...unless of course they go on and win every other game by 30+ points, but I don't see that happening. I suggest the defensive coaches and players do a little bit of getting their you-know-what together as that was utterly pathetic.

- LSU looked pretty good given they were playing in a rain storm most of the night. I think Matt Flynn will be very good this year although he'll have his hands full next week when Va Tech comes to town.

- Memo to Charlie Weiss: you are not larger than the ND program (although you are quite large). Stop with stupid little charade to attract all of the attention. And another thing, you had better tone down the "this is not a building year" talk just a hair - your team may lose 8 or 9 games this year. Gurantee that they will lose at least 5. That was a pathetic performance yesterday against a team that IS rebuilding.

- Settle down Cal fans. It was a nice win and even sweeter to get that revenge and start the season off on the right foot. BUT, you gave up 31 points to a team with absolutely no proven receivers and a QB with a broken finger on his throwing hand. You've got a great offense, but the defense is going to have to improve considerably to make any sort of BCS run. And save me a seat on the DeSean Foster band wagon - early heisman favorite for me.

- Like a lot of teams, the Aggies took care of business last night, but the questions around their defense are confirmed. Looks like Montana St. outgained the aggies and won the time of possession, but clearly couldn't finish (missed a few field goals and lost a fumble in the red zone). I said it last week - this team may live and die with their red zone defense. McGee is still their leading offensive machine - for better or for worse.

- Being a Longhorn fan and watching the matchups with North Texas over the past few years I can confidently say that I am unimpressed with OU's 79-10 romping on the Mean Green. Kudos young Bradford, I'm sure that game built all kinds of confidence - good luck with the Hurricanes next week. North Texas has one of division 1's worst pass defenses whereas the Hurricanes have one of the most athletic defenses. Something's gotta give next week.

- And finally, those Texas Longhorns. I mentioned that I thought this team had a loss looming (one of TCU, Okie State and A&M) - make that at least 2 losses looming. Yet again, a Texas team comes into the game with no emotion and lacking any semblance of heart. There was never a point in the game when Texas had control of the game - not one point....against Arkansas State (oh yea, and the Indians led in every statistical category). The offense was aenemic, the defense was non-existent and our playmakers were nowhere to be found on the field. 2 glarring things that will cost us those minimum of 2 games: 1) no real running game, 2) a shaky defense...at best. By the way - first and goal at the Arkansas State 3 yard line and 4 straight running plays resulted in a turnover on downs. Hey Mack, instead of trying to prove a point, why not throw the f'ing ball into the end zone and take the damn points???!!! It was a sloppy and uninspired performance. I'm sticking with my prediction that TCU upsets the Longhorns next week in Austin...and am more confident than ever that they will.


That is all gang - talk with you next week and enjoy the long weekend.