Breaking Down the Brackets
Well my friends, it's finally here again - the Big Dance. And to boot, this year's field is one hell of a field of contenders. Call it mediocrity, call it parity, call it what you will - it should be a great tournament. And here's begging and pleading to the Nemetz family for letting me into the pool this year even though I got my bracket in after 5pm on Wednesday....PLEEEAAAASE!!!
Let's break this down by region and I'll share my wisdom (or is it ignorance?) on who's heading to San Antonio.
West Region:
This region could actually have the game of the weekend with a second-round matchup of Duke vs. West Virginia....which Huggins will win by the way. In all seriousness this looks to be a pretty smooth road to the final four for the Bruins - they have to be pleased with this draw. The one thing this region does have is the toughest of the mid-majors - Xavier, Drake, Western Kentucky, etc. As mentioned above, I do think West Virginia is a scary "dark horse" in this region and could make some noise. I do have Baylor upsetting Purdue and the Mountaineers upsetting Duke, but other than that, this region is all about UCLA.
Midwest Region:
In my opinion, the toughest region in the tourney. Assuming that if Texas would have beat Kansas they would have switched seeds/places, I'm thrilled that the Horns pulled the 2 seed. Seriously, after the first round game, here are Kansas' possible opponents - Vanderbilt, Villanova, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Gonzaga - those are some very tough opponents right there. Although I think Kansas is one of the most talented and most definitely the deepest team in the tournament, I just can't see them getting through this region.
I know I mentioned Vandy above, and they've had a pretty nice year, but a 4 seed? Crazy. Siena over Vandy could be that token 12 seed over 5 seed this year - you know there's at least one every year. Should they get by Siena, Nova will smother these guys.
Game to watch - USC and Kansas State on Thursday.
South Region:
Talk about some home cooking - if these Longhorns can get through what will most definitely be a VERY hostile environment in Little Rock, they're sitting very pretty. After this weekend, they go to Houston for a weekend and then, should they continue to win, even closer to San Antonio. Not to bad. In all seriousness, I do think Texas has the easiest path to the final four...by a mile. The locations aside, should Texas get through to the Elite 8 and face the 1 seed they'll get a Memphis team who's less tested than most other 1 or 2 seeds in the tournament. Not saying Memphis can't or won't beat Texas (should they meet), but I do think the Longhorns present some terrible matchup problems for Memphis and can run with them.
Honestly, I don't even have Memphis getting to this point - I've got Izzo's crew at Michigan State overpowering Memphis in the round of 16. Another team to keep an eye on is Kentucky - they've struggled early in the season, but have turned it on of late. A possible second-round matchup of Kentucky/Stanford could be a good one - keep an eye on that one.
East Region:
The "other" toughest region in this year's field. Oh, and congratulations Tennessee - for having the toughest schedule and the number 1 RPI this year we're going to reward you with a 2 seed in Carolina's region AND a likely second-round matchup with Butler. Not sure there's a team that got more screwed in seeding than the Volunteers. I'm one who thinks they should have been a 1 seed even with the loss in the SEC tourney. Oh well.
The "You're Crazy moment" of bracket fun - I actually have Notre Dame upsetting Carolina in one of my brackets....probably not a smart call there, but it was my gut feeling at the time and it was in one of the free pools. I struggled in my real bracket, but ended up having Tennessee coming out of this region - I think they've been tougher and better tested this year.
Oklahoma has no business being a 6 seed - I think St. Joes runs all over these guys in the opening round (there's a good 11 over 6 upset).
Road to San Antonio:
I ended up with Georgetown facing Tennessee and UCLA facing Texas in the final four. UCLA over Tennessee in the championship game....of course once I turned in the brackets I read about injury concerns for the Bruins...damnit. Honestly, I think it's a toss up between Tennessee and UCLA at this point.
NBA Notes:
So I had the distinct pleasure of getting to see the Mavs/Lakers game in Dallas on Tuesday night. Ended up being a great game in the final quarter (that's the NBA for you) and the Lakers got a much-needed victory with both Bynum and Gasol out with injuries. They had lost 3 straight coming into this game and could not afford another loss, especially with their trip to Utah on Thursday.
I'll say this, I'm pretty happy I'm not a Mavs fan - they're not playing too well right now. I know this may sound crazy, but with the west as competitive as it is, it's not out of the question that the Mavs could miss the playoffs (they're currently a 7 seed). They played what had to be their worst game of the year on Tuesday night. Lakers were without Bynum and Gasol, Mavs shot more free throws, had more blocks, AND had a period of about 5 and a half minutes in the 3rd quarter where Kobe was on the bench with foul trouble...and they lost. Not only that, but the Mavs got down by as much as 25 points in the third. I made the late-night trek back to Austin after the game and listened to the local post-game show and Mavs fans are PISSED.
I'd say that if they miss the playoffs, Avery is gone - I really like Avery Johnson, but this guy is in over his head. He had Kidd on the bench for most of the 3rd and 4th quarters (in which time the Mavs went on a 23-3 run with Tyrone Lue leading the way) - he then brings Kidd in the last few minutes and that did not end well. If I'm Cuban I'm starting to get real sick to my stomach after this trade. Allen mentioned this after the game last night, but don't be shocked to see a fire sale in Dallas over the next few years if they aren't able to get over the hump and get back to the finals.
All in all, great game that came down to the last possession. Mavs did a great job of shutting Kobe down in the second half and holding him to 9 points, but the rest of the Lakers stepped up and made their shots (Odom had 17 and 17). The American Airlines center is a fantastic venue and fun place to see a game. Big thanks to Hooser for the invite/ticket - it's amazing how different the NBA is in person vs. on television.
Now that Houston's streak is over it will be interesting to see how they respond and bounce back. They've got a tough one against New Orleans tonight and then they've got some real tough games the rest of the way. Hey, it's the Western Conference, they could drop from 1 to 5 with just a couple of losses.
Anyone curious how good Boston is? They're 22-4 against the Western Conference. Wow.
With that, I'm fading fast so I'm shutting it down for the night. Enjoy the games this weekend and I'll get a quick recap of the first 2 rounds before next week.
Let's break this down by region and I'll share my wisdom (or is it ignorance?) on who's heading to San Antonio.
West Region:
This region could actually have the game of the weekend with a second-round matchup of Duke vs. West Virginia....which Huggins will win by the way. In all seriousness this looks to be a pretty smooth road to the final four for the Bruins - they have to be pleased with this draw. The one thing this region does have is the toughest of the mid-majors - Xavier, Drake, Western Kentucky, etc. As mentioned above, I do think West Virginia is a scary "dark horse" in this region and could make some noise. I do have Baylor upsetting Purdue and the Mountaineers upsetting Duke, but other than that, this region is all about UCLA.
Midwest Region:
In my opinion, the toughest region in the tourney. Assuming that if Texas would have beat Kansas they would have switched seeds/places, I'm thrilled that the Horns pulled the 2 seed. Seriously, after the first round game, here are Kansas' possible opponents - Vanderbilt, Villanova, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Gonzaga - those are some very tough opponents right there. Although I think Kansas is one of the most talented and most definitely the deepest team in the tournament, I just can't see them getting through this region.
I know I mentioned Vandy above, and they've had a pretty nice year, but a 4 seed? Crazy. Siena over Vandy could be that token 12 seed over 5 seed this year - you know there's at least one every year. Should they get by Siena, Nova will smother these guys.
Game to watch - USC and Kansas State on Thursday.
South Region:
Talk about some home cooking - if these Longhorns can get through what will most definitely be a VERY hostile environment in Little Rock, they're sitting very pretty. After this weekend, they go to Houston for a weekend and then, should they continue to win, even closer to San Antonio. Not to bad. In all seriousness, I do think Texas has the easiest path to the final four...by a mile. The locations aside, should Texas get through to the Elite 8 and face the 1 seed they'll get a Memphis team who's less tested than most other 1 or 2 seeds in the tournament. Not saying Memphis can't or won't beat Texas (should they meet), but I do think the Longhorns present some terrible matchup problems for Memphis and can run with them.
Honestly, I don't even have Memphis getting to this point - I've got Izzo's crew at Michigan State overpowering Memphis in the round of 16. Another team to keep an eye on is Kentucky - they've struggled early in the season, but have turned it on of late. A possible second-round matchup of Kentucky/Stanford could be a good one - keep an eye on that one.
East Region:
The "other" toughest region in this year's field. Oh, and congratulations Tennessee - for having the toughest schedule and the number 1 RPI this year we're going to reward you with a 2 seed in Carolina's region AND a likely second-round matchup with Butler. Not sure there's a team that got more screwed in seeding than the Volunteers. I'm one who thinks they should have been a 1 seed even with the loss in the SEC tourney. Oh well.
The "You're Crazy moment" of bracket fun - I actually have Notre Dame upsetting Carolina in one of my brackets....probably not a smart call there, but it was my gut feeling at the time and it was in one of the free pools. I struggled in my real bracket, but ended up having Tennessee coming out of this region - I think they've been tougher and better tested this year.
Oklahoma has no business being a 6 seed - I think St. Joes runs all over these guys in the opening round (there's a good 11 over 6 upset).
Road to San Antonio:
I ended up with Georgetown facing Tennessee and UCLA facing Texas in the final four. UCLA over Tennessee in the championship game....of course once I turned in the brackets I read about injury concerns for the Bruins...damnit. Honestly, I think it's a toss up between Tennessee and UCLA at this point.
NBA Notes:
So I had the distinct pleasure of getting to see the Mavs/Lakers game in Dallas on Tuesday night. Ended up being a great game in the final quarter (that's the NBA for you) and the Lakers got a much-needed victory with both Bynum and Gasol out with injuries. They had lost 3 straight coming into this game and could not afford another loss, especially with their trip to Utah on Thursday.
I'll say this, I'm pretty happy I'm not a Mavs fan - they're not playing too well right now. I know this may sound crazy, but with the west as competitive as it is, it's not out of the question that the Mavs could miss the playoffs (they're currently a 7 seed). They played what had to be their worst game of the year on Tuesday night. Lakers were without Bynum and Gasol, Mavs shot more free throws, had more blocks, AND had a period of about 5 and a half minutes in the 3rd quarter where Kobe was on the bench with foul trouble...and they lost. Not only that, but the Mavs got down by as much as 25 points in the third. I made the late-night trek back to Austin after the game and listened to the local post-game show and Mavs fans are PISSED.
I'd say that if they miss the playoffs, Avery is gone - I really like Avery Johnson, but this guy is in over his head. He had Kidd on the bench for most of the 3rd and 4th quarters (in which time the Mavs went on a 23-3 run with Tyrone Lue leading the way) - he then brings Kidd in the last few minutes and that did not end well. If I'm Cuban I'm starting to get real sick to my stomach after this trade. Allen mentioned this after the game last night, but don't be shocked to see a fire sale in Dallas over the next few years if they aren't able to get over the hump and get back to the finals.
All in all, great game that came down to the last possession. Mavs did a great job of shutting Kobe down in the second half and holding him to 9 points, but the rest of the Lakers stepped up and made their shots (Odom had 17 and 17). The American Airlines center is a fantastic venue and fun place to see a game. Big thanks to Hooser for the invite/ticket - it's amazing how different the NBA is in person vs. on television.
Now that Houston's streak is over it will be interesting to see how they respond and bounce back. They've got a tough one against New Orleans tonight and then they've got some real tough games the rest of the way. Hey, it's the Western Conference, they could drop from 1 to 5 with just a couple of losses.
Anyone curious how good Boston is? They're 22-4 against the Western Conference. Wow.
With that, I'm fading fast so I'm shutting it down for the night. Enjoy the games this weekend and I'll get a quick recap of the first 2 rounds before next week.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 10:46 PM
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