Monday, August 25, 2008

Kickoff Weekend

Are you giddy? Because I'm giddy. I still can't believe that there will actually be REAL college football on this weekend. I'll tell you I can't wait. Like most kickoff weekends, there aren't a ton of great games on this Saturday, but hey, beggars can't be choosers. I've identified what I believe to be the "sleeper" good games and those where the names just make them look like good games. But first, let me get this off of my chest....

Florida Atlantic at Texas:
When was the last time Texas played multiple opponents in one year with the Owls as a mascot? I'm going to go with never. Saturday night's game will be an interesting preface to a Texas season filled with more question marks than answers. There's no doubt that FAU won't come close to matching the level of talent that Texas will field on Saturday, but as we've seen in recent seasons, that doesn't mean squat. Coach Schnellenberger said as much in a recent interview - Texas has a boat load of talent, but lacks physical toughness. I imagine that, unfortunately for Howard's kids, this will motivate the Horns to go out and make a statement of just how tough they can be.

About the only sure thing we do know about these Horns is that we've got a pretty good quarterback, a very good defensive line and 2 very good receivers. Other than that, we'll just have to wait and see. The good news is Mack continues to pull in top 10 recruiting classes year in and year out....at least I hope that holds true. If nothing else, this Texas team will be fielding one of the younger teams in terms of experience in Mack's tenure here on the 40 acres. And you know what? That's not a bad thing. I'm all about putting the best players on the field, whether their true freshman or 5th year seniors - there are currently 10 true freshman listed on the depth charts (as of earlier this week) with good chances to start and/or see significant playing time throughout the year, so kudos to Mack. I've said it before, this team (on paper) is set up quite nicely for '09, but we'll cross that bridge a year from now. Here are a few quick notes on what we can expect to see on Saturday and in the next few games:

Player with the most to prove - I'm going with the entire linebacker corps. I say this only because since the beloved Derrick Johnson departed Austin, the linebackers have been an afterthought - all within a program that has historically turned out some damn good ones in the college game. We've got 3 key guys with proven experience and whom I think will be hungry to make a statement - Babino, Muckelroy and Kindle. Look for these guys to be flying around the field and taking some heads off. Is it me or has Rashaad Babino been at Texas for like 8 years?

"Who's That???!!" Player - There will likely be quite a few of these given how young this Texas team is, but as the coaches look to solidify the remaining 2-3 receivers to join Shipley and Cosby in the regular rotation, keep an eye on Dan Buckner. He's the only one out there who resembles Limas Sweed and Roy Williams - big, fast receiver who has the size and speed to be a true deep threat like the aforementioned stars (now in the NFL mind you...). He may suck ass, but on paper, he "looks" capable of filling that void.

Biggest Question Mark - I gotta go with the secondary here...and who wouldn't. I believe they were ranked around 112 in pass defense last year so the good news is they've got endless opportunity to improve that. I imagine FAU will test this young crew early and often as they've got a seasoned QB and receiver who put up some impressive numbers last year. The ability of the front 7 to get pressure will greatly help, but I'm looking very closely at these guys. They know it will be coming this weekend and in future weekends and it would be nice to give future opposing coaches something to think about... One thing to keep in mind is that FAU put up 400 yards and over 30 points/game last year so they're capable of putting up some offensive numbers. Yes, I know they don't play in a powerhouse conference, but that's less and less relevant these days. Good test for this young crew.

At the end of the day though, Colt and company have a field day against this defense and I expect (hope really) we'll see one of the running backs emerge as "our guy".

Texas - 49
FAU - 20

Because the rest of the schedule resembles...well, a typical first weekend. Here's a quick look at those "sleeper" games I mentioned as well as some to not get fooled by:

North Carolina State at South Carolina - I know, I know, "it's Steve Spurrier"...Trust me, this game will blow as will the season for each of these teams.

Utah at Michigan - This will actually be a pretty good game I think. This shouldn't be a blowout any way you cut it. Michigan should take at least 2 steps backwards this year as it attempts to implement a *completely different* system. And Utah is no powerhouse, but as a program they've got good experience playing seemingly larger opponents. Don't be surprised to see a nail biter here.

USC at Virginia - On paper one might be thinking, "hey, USC traveling across country to play an ACC opponent." And you'd be right. Only problem is Virginia is not at all a true contender in their own conference this year. I would be surprised if USC won by less than 3 touchdowns.

Alabam vs. Clemson - All in all, I'm going with this as *the* game for the weekend. As usual, Clemson has a lot of pressure on it this year and it being Saban's second year in Tuscaloosa, you just know he'll have his kids competing a very high level. I'm going with Bama in an upset here this weekend. Clemson always crumbles down the stretch, but I predict an uncharacteristic early loss here.

Michigan State at Cal - I want to believe this will be a good game, but I just don't know. My gut is telling me that Cal will stomp them, but who knows. Either way, I just don't think this game will wind up being as exciting as those names may indicate.

Illinois vs. Missouri - I got this one a a must-watch as well. I know Zook is replacing some guys, but he's done a good job there and has had time to build a recruiting stable. I don't know, but I see this as an upset alert. Missouri is in uncharted waters with this level of attention in the national spotlight. I'm just saying....check it out.

Tennessee vs. UCLA - Logic would say the Vols stomp UCLA, but I just don't know. Either way, I don't see these teams doing a whole heck of a lot this year. 7-10 years ago this would be a tremendous game, but not quite today. But hey, it's Monday night in prime time - what the hell else you going to watch?

Eastern Washington at Texas Tech:
How the hell should I know? Check it out yourself....
http://fannation.com/blogs/post/239596

NFL Notes:
  • Is it me or did Felix Jones fall into an absolutely golden situation in Dallas? That guy gets to share time with Marion Barber with Tony Romo as your QB and TO as the #1 receiver. Not a bad environment at all.
  • Uuuuuuuummmmm, I'm not extremely confident about Vince Young this year. I'm just saying it now.
  • Nice Heisman that Strahan gave to the Giants on Wednesday. In all seriousness, if he doubted how "into it" he would be in week 6 than kudos to him for making the right call. Could get interesting for the defending champs. Loss of Osi is H-U-G-E.
  • I'm saying it now - I don't see John Lynch having any measurable impact on the Patriots' defense. None at all.
  • Man, I hope someone in the Chargers front office is slapping Merriman upside his head. Let's see - he's got 2 torn ligaments in his knee; there's debate on whether or not he can worsen the condition; his contract is up after *next* year....and he wants to play this season and get the surgery after the season. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
  • I think I like the Warner-over-Lineart situation in Arizona. I honestly think Lineart lost it in his last pre-season game. Either way, it's a lot easier for the coach (and fans) if Lineart, the QB of the future, has to come in and save the day. If Lineart starts now and bombs and Warner has to come in - that's harder to reconcile. The million dollar question is this - you know Warner may win you a game or two, but how many will Lineart lose for you? Hopefully none, but how confident is Cardinal fan about that????
  • I think if I'm an NFL coach I'm never playing a "tier 1" starter in a pre-season game ever again.
  • Raise your hand if you're happy you're not a Bengals fan (or executive)...
  • Will the Baltimore Ravens ever have a top-tier quarterback?
And my non-sports thought for the week...
I've just recently discovered the phenomenon that is The Hills and my only question is this - is there a bigger bunch of douche bags on the face of the earth (although the Russians are vying hard for that top slot right now)? How in the world are these guys famous???? It's all very disturbing. 

That's what I got folks. Have a great weekend, have a beer, smoke some meats and watch some football for crying out loud.