Saturday, December 09, 2006

2006: Season in Review...and then some.

So I'm going through withdrawal this morning because no game day and no college games. Woe is me, I know.

The good news is with the wife and kiddo out of town I get to do other fun stuff like raking leaves and putting up Christmas lights - that's much better than college football...

What better way to get my fix than to recap the good, the bad and the ugly of the season - I've also decided that I'm handing out my own awards this year including a few made-up ones. I'll also hit on the outlook for the rest of the way in the NFL and some NBA updates (20 games into an 82 game season). It usually takes me about 7-10 days to get fully entrenched in the college basketball scene, but once I do, there's no looking back...so you readers out there have that to look forward to.

On to the season in review.

THE GOOD
- Ohio State. Love them or hate them they played a nearly perfect football season this year.

- UCLA, Kansas State, Auburn and LSU who each had a big game/pulled a big upset that had national title race implications. Those are the games that make all of this so fun.

- Rutgers. I mean who saw that coming? Say what you will about the Big East, they went 10-2. Unbelievable. And they beat the team representing their conference in the BCS. Good story.

- 95% of SEC games. You simply cannot deny that week in and week out, most of the best football you see comes out of this conference. Give it 2 years and Spurrier will have the Gamecocks contending for an SEC title.

- Human voters for not pushing/voting for a OSU/UM rematch. Add Michigan to the list of schools now a bit more interested in a better system.

- University of Miami for making a smart move (and the right one) in choosing their new head coach. 2 more years and they'll be back.

THE BAD
- The collapse of Miami and FSU. What the hell happened and how did it happen so fast? Both teams played in BCS bowls last year.

- The Big 10. I guess I should wait until after the bowl games to mention this (they're the closest thing we have in comparing conference strength), but the Big 10 was not good. Of course they happen two of the best teams in the nation sitting at the top, and a curious Wisconsin team up there, but after that it drops off quite a bit. Except for possibly the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl, I think Big 10 teams are underdogs in all of their bowl games. In looking at those matchups, I give them a shot at 2-5, maybe 3-4 in those games - at best.

- The Big 12. See everything above. Big 12 goes 3-5 in their bowl games. It will be interesting to see both of these conferences next year - Big 10 is losing some key guys from UM and OSU, but there are a few teams with upside as well. Big 12 has OU which should come in as a true contender next year, but who knows about Texas, Texas A&M, Tech and Nebraska. You have to think Missouri will be improved next year with a lot of those guys coming back.

- Alabama. This team took two steps backwards in the development of this program by firing Shula (after giving him a big extension last year). Now they can't even buy an interview. Shula's firing was VERY premature.

- Jim Tressell not voting in the final coach's poll. That's weak. Yet another stellar endorsement for the USAToday/ESPN Coach's poll. At the end of the day it probably didn't have huge implications, but if you voted the whole year, you have to finish the year. More on this below...

- Officiating. This is subjective year by year, but I for me this seemed to have been a particularly bad year of officiating. Obviously the Oregon and OU game immediately comes to mind as that was a monumentally bad game for the refs. That is in reality the only true instance of the game being decided by the officials. Others that come to mind were just poorly called, but did not necessarily decide the outcome - USC/Washington; Auburn/Florida; LSU/Auburn; Texas/Aggies.

THE UGLY
- Division 1 post season. Our bowl system/"national champion" system is utterly ridiculous.

- The ACC. I didn't put this under Bad, because it was just ugly. Not to take anything away from Wake Forest, who had a fantastic year, but the football being played in this conference was just ugly at times. For starters, Miami and Florida State. FSU lost 30-0 against Wake Forest. That's insane. The one caveat to this is Virginia Tech - I know, I know, these guys usually hit a few bumps early in the season and we all forget about them, next thing you know they're 10-2 and have blown out their opponents down the stretch. These guys do this every year it seems and this year is no exception. Granted, their two losses (BC and GaTech) were to 2 of the 3 best teams they played. The third being a win over Wake Forest, but how good is Wake Forest really? We'll see.

- Miami brawl. That was nuts.

- The Big 12 North. I mentioned the BAD of the Big 12 in general, but the North Division is plain ugly. Take out Nebraska and it's abysmal. UN is moving in the right direction and again, you have to think Missouri will continue to improve with this young team. But, after that, you have to wonder about the up side to ISU, Kstate, Kansas and Colorado.

- The Texas Longhorn pass defense. They are particularly ugly considering the level of talent this place has coming in every year.

MY SOLUTION FOR THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL POST SEASON
Like you haven't heard/seen this before. Come on, humor me, it's fun.

First and foremost, it's not realistic to say that starting next year we'll do an 8-team playoff. It's not going to happen like that. We know that, but it doesn't mean you can't take baby steps like a +1 system to start off. But, before we get into that, here are a few foundation changes that must occur.

Polls - First, get rid of the coach's poll altogether. They don't like it, we don't like it and there's no question as to there validity (lack thereof). Second, create on official poll that is created and updated by a committee. Not unlike the NCAA selection committee for the basketball tournament, but not quite to that extent. It should be selected by the conferences every few years (we'll say 4) and should include people close to and in the CFB "community" (ex players, writers, coaches, AD's, etc.). BUT, it can't include people who have full-time jobs like current coaches, writers, etc. and absolutely no tie/current connection to any team or conference. The AP can still have their own poll, but the true standings, champions will be decided by this committee. Period. Once you have that committee, no official polls until after the first weekend of games in October. This committee can use whatever stats, systems, computer data they want to in making their decisions, but the point is that the ultimate poll is chosen by this committee of people each week.

Current "Fifth" BCS Game - Understand the intent, but it's stupid. Get rid of this. If the teams in "lower-tier" Division 1 conferences don't like it, tell them schedule pre-conference games against tougher opponents. No, it's not fair and yes it sucks, but this has to go away. Ideally, the my new system will include these teams in the post season more regularly, assuming they're deserving of it.

BCS/Conference Ties - Must void these conference tie-ins to the "Big BCS Bowls". I think doing this will also help to be more inclusive of the second tier conferences. Have a rotation of the choosing process for which game gets first pick and so on.

OK, so with that, here's how you do this - in phases.

PHASE 1 - First and foremost remove the word playoff from the whole thing. I think that word is more of an obstacle than is the actual proposed system. With that, add a true +1 game - essentially creating a scenario where you have a final 4. You continue to rotate the "big" bowls as you currently do - 2 of them will be the final four bowls and those winners will play in a final bowl game which will be the true championship. With this, you won't be doing anything differently than you already are this year with the current +1 game. The only difference is that 2 of the BCS bowls and the fifth (+1) would be meaningful. Do this for a few years and re-evaluate. RESULT: Expanding the field to include the four most teams deserving of a shot versus 2 most deserving teams. Think about this year - I think you'll find far more agreement on the top 4 teams than you will on the top 2 teams. USC, Michigan, Florida and Ohio State. I'm not saying it would be unanimous agreement, just more agreement.

PHASE 2 - Assuming the above phase is successful and the powers that be realize the opportunity, you can move on to expand. Assuming we're sticking with the "baby steps" approach I think the next logical move would be to expand to 6 teams, only this would require two of those teams having "byes" (think first round of NFL playoffs). Without going into as much detail here, you can still maintain the same bowl system that you have now including the same system as above.

PHASE 3 - Again, assuming all goes well with the phase 2 for a few years, here's where you really kick it up a notch. I must say, this requires more sweeping changes to the current regular season and conference set up. First and foremost, before venturing into the 8-team system (which would be perfect with the current 4 BCS bowls), you must reduce the number of regular season games - no more than 10. This will cause a ruckus because of the lost revenue. My response is that you're sacrificing 2 regular season games against crappy opponents in favor of added games in the "post season". More importantly, I think the quality of those 10 games will greatly outweigh the quality of the 12 games we currently have. You also have to look at conference championships. I'm not going to say you absolutely must have all of them do it or none of them, but I think there should be a push here to get all of them on board. And yes, I realize that the Big 10 would need to add a team, but big deal - I'm sure you'll find quite a few teams interested in that.

The beauty of this system is that you don't have to commit to all of it. If they find that it's not working or they're not making as much $$ as they would like, they can ditch it. And the first phase of this doesn't even require a major change to the system. Furthermore, you're not messing with the other bowl games so we can keep our "everyone gets a trophy" bowl system that we currently have.

That's it, make it happen...

2006 COLLEGE FOOTBALL AWARDS
Coach of the year - it's hard not to go with Schiano here from Rutgers given the turnaround that team has had. But if you could do a 1a or tie here - I'd go with Stoops. I know I've said it before, and I'm a Longhorn fan, but I still contend he's the best coach in the country. I won't rehash the reasons here as you already know the adversity this team faced this year and low and behold they're Big 12 champs playing in a BCS bowl.

Heisman Trophy Winner - Troy Smith. He's the best player on the best team, which is what I contend is the only somewhat consistent criteria for this award. It just so happens that he's the best all-around player this year...I think.

Most Valuable Player - I made this one up. We'll keep the beauty pageant award of the Heisman, but this goes to the player who meant the most to his team's success. Gotta go with Darren McFadden here. Take him off that team and they're not even a blip on the radar. And he's only a sophomore.

Biggest Surprise Team - Can't be anyone other than Rutgers.

Teams on the Rise - S. Carolina, Arkansas and Nebraska

Biggest Collapse Teams - Texas and Clemson share this award.

NFL NOTES
Alright, we're heading into the home stretch of the season - here's my outlook heading into the playoffs.

AFC:
- The big question for the AFC is who's getting the wild card? With the Jets, Chiefs, Bengals, Broncos, Steelers and Jags vying for 2 spots, it should get interesting. I'm going with Jets here - they've got the easiest road and they're playing very well right now. The second spot? Toss up between Bengals and Jags. I just don't think Denver is that good this year.

- I've recently been big on Indy, but they MUST be able to stop the run to be successful. I'm with San Diego as the favorite coming out of the AFC here - it's hard to find any weaknesses with these guys right now - at least no major or consistent weaknesses. And they have LDT who happens to be the league's best player right now.

- Right this down: in the next 3-4 years, the Titans will be contending in the AFC again and VY will be one of the top players in the league. Locking up Fisher was HUGE for this team. And, they have 40+ million on cap space going into the off season.

NFC:
- Man, the NFC is just plain bad this year. Dallas seems to be defining itself as the favorite in the league. They've got the next two games against formidable opponents in New Orleans and Atlanta, but they close it out with games against the Eagles and Lions. I've got them going 4-0 in this stretch and pulling away in the conference.

- What about the Bears??? What about the Bears! Yes, they'll probably go 4-0 down the stretch as well, but look at their division. Two things that will prove to be devastating for this team: 1) Rex Grossman and the QB situation, and 2) Losing Tommie Harris for the year. That is a HUGE blow to this team heading into the playoffs. I don't think these guys will win a game in the playoffs this year, of course that will depend on who they pull in the second round.

- EATING CROW: OK, so I remember saying how overrated I thought Tommie Harris was coming out of college (Oklahoma). Yes, he was big and athletic, but he really never did anything spectacular in college. With that said, he has been AWESOME for the Bears. He may be one of the best defensive tackles in the league right now and not having him up front to help stop the run will be a hard blow to overcome.

- Cowboys over the Saints tomorrow night - and it won't be that close.

- What has happened to Carolina? Have we been over-estimating Delhomme's abilities since that one Super Bowl? I still think he's good and Steve Smith is just a freak. That coupled with Peppers on the other side of the ball and this team should be at least 3 games better than it is right now.

- There's really nothing else more to say about the NFC. It stinks.

- Chargers over Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

NBA NOTES
- In case you missed it, Phoenix beat New Jersey the other night 161-157 in triple OT. That's 318 total points. That's nuts.

- If I hear another person talk about this player or that for MVP right now I'm going to puke. We're like a fourth of the way through the season. Settle down.

- With Garnett and Iverson leading the big names on the trading block this year should be very interesting in terms of player swapping. Garnett in Chicago? Iverson AND Garnett in Minnesota? Should be interesting.

- The Texas teams are ranking 1, 2 and 3 in total scoring in the league right now (Dallas, Houston and San Antone). Obviously the biggest surprise is Houston.

- Speaking of Houston, I think we're seeing the emergence of Yao Ming - this is what we've been talking about/looking for over the past 4 years.

- The Nets are leading the Atlantic Division in the East...at 7-11. Man that division has been bad for a while.

- I know it's early, but keep watching Orlando, they're playing well and Grant Hill hasn't been hurt yet. They've got a 4-game lead in their division - which happens to include Washington and Miami.


That's what I got for you gang. Keep reading, posting and all that fun stuff.

Monday, December 04, 2006

That's All She Wrote

Another season is complete and all is right in the world of college football - as right as it can be.

Congratulations to the Bruins of UCLA - what a terrific ball game they played, especially on the defensive side. The golden boys of USC may finally be showing some kinks in the armor there - two "Longhorn-type" losses this season. Of course they've got an all-star cast coming back next year again.

And how about those Gators???!!! Congratulations to Urban Meyer for stepping into a demanding job and getting them to the big game in year number 2. Should be a pretty good game. I'll be interested to see how Florida's mighty defense may or may not be able to contain the Buckeye offense.

Here are some quick hits from the college and pro weekend games and an ultra-brief preview to the big BCS games.

- The seasons that Wake Forest and Rutgers had will overshadow this, but I think Bob Stoops is the undisputed Coach of the Year this year: he loses his starting QB and offensive lineman for the year before the first game, get hosed by the refs in a big game against Oregon, get dominated by arch-rival Texas, and lose their best player (and best RB in the country) half-way through the season - and he's now headed to the Fiesta Bowl as the Big 12 champs. I know, they got a lot of help, but they still did what they had to do. Look out Longhorn fans - this OU team will be pretty damn good next year (again).

- Speaking of Wake Forest: they were pre-season picks to finish dead last in the ACC and they lost their starting QB and RB early in the year - and now they're in the Orange Bowl as ACC champs. How about them apples? Of course they're going to have to do better than 3 field goals to beat Louisville.

- How in the world is Notre Dame in a BCS game?

- What a game played by Rutgers and West Virginia: When looking at the Big 10 and Big 12, it's hard to talk a lot of trash about the Big East right now.

- Memo to Lloyd Carr: Stop your whining about Meyer's "lobbying" to get into the big game. YOU LOST!! You had your chance and you lost. Let it go, take your Rose Bowl bid and your ass whoopin' and shut your pie hole.

- I still can't believe people are wondering how Florida jumped Michigan: they've played a tougher schedule, beat better teams and oh yea, they won their conference. People say Michigan didn't play and so how could they get jumped? I say that's precisely the reason - they didn’t play. Meanwhile, Florida is going against a top 10 Arkansas team and handed them their ass. For those of you who believe it should be Michigan getting a second chance, do this for me, go take a look at the teams that both Florida and Michigan played this year and look at the records of those teams. People want to get on Florida for struggling against S. Carolina, but everyone has amnesia about Michigan struggling against Ball State. The right call was made here and it's obvious that the voters don't want a rematch - and for good reason. If we had a 4, 6 or 8 team playoff then I would totally be for Michigan getting a top 3 seed nod. But guess what, we don't have a playoff system and you can't reward a team for losing their last game AND their conference while another team with the same record just won their conference (and a much tougher conference at that).

- Memo to Chicago Bears: You clinched your division and you may go 14-2 or 13-3 this year, but I promise you this, Rex Grossman will cost you a trip to the Super Bowl. Make a change NOW! It's clear you don't need a high-powered QB (which is good b/c you don't have one), but you do need someone to manage a game without throwing it away (or trying to). Brian Griese gives you a much better option of game management than Grossman. And next year, you've got trade bait, use it and go after a higher-tiered signal caller.

- Tom Coughlin should be fired TODAY! There is not a worse coach in the league right now than Caughlin. Stupid penalties cost the Giants that game yesterday. They are undisciplined b/c they don't respect him. Let him go.

- And the Vince Young saga continues - knocking off both Manning brothers in 2 consecutive weeks.

- And speaking of brothers Manning, I think it's obvious now that Eli is not and never will be in the same ball park as Peyton.

- Welcome Reggie Bush - the first game where he actually came close to living up to expectations…against the 49ers.


Sugar Bowl - This should be a great game. 9 times out of 10 I would say LSU kills ND, but you just never know when LSU is going to show up with that one crappy game. If Russell struggles and their offense sputters on and off, ND will have a shot to beat them. I'm very excited to see LSU's tough defense against ND's offense. I'm hoping for another bowl-game ass whoopin' on the Irish so maybe the media/voters will come back down to earth next year.

Orange Bowl - Boy I can't wait to NOT watch this game.

Rose Bowl - USC and Michigan; seems like days of old here. This should actually be a very good game although my gut says that USC wins this one.

Fiesta Bowl - Another game that I could go either way on in terms of watching - OU by 2+ touchdowns.

Title Game (Fiesta) - Gotta go with OSU as the pick until they lose, but like I said last week, their 7-week layoff may do them in. This will be the best all-around defense that OSU will have seen this year. Should be good.


Looking Ahead…
Well, there's no more college football until the first bowl game is played in a couple of weeks, but don't fret, I'll still be here looking at the rest of the sports world and still picking all the wrong teams to win. Check back periodically for updates and I'll continue to shoot out reminders.
Stay tuned next weekend for the season in review issue. Enjoy the week.