Show Us What You Got!

Well folks, it's finally here - yet another Texas/OU Saturday. And yet again, it's one of the bigger (if not biggest) game of the weekend in terms of long-term implications. Texas wins and they still control their own fate. If they lose, any shot of a national title is a very unlikely scenario.

Although it may seem so here in Austin, Texas, there are other big games with big implications this weekend. Perhaps you've heard that USC is coming off of a bye week to travel to South Bend to take on the Irish. Oh, and Ohio State FINALLY travels outside the confines of the Shoe to visit Wisconsin. Missouri, looking to jump back into the national top 25 travels to Stillwater to take on a very suspect Oklahoma State team. Bottom line, lots going on with national and Big 12 implications so let's dive in. And of course, I can't NOT start with...

I told you to be worried, Texas fans, and you should be. I can point to a lot of reasons why Texas should win this game (and I will), but it's one key intangible that scares me most...and yes, I'll get to that too. But first, let's look at the key concerns that each team must address for this game.

Concerns for Oklahoma - Lots of concerns for the Sooners right now, can't deny it. BUT, I still wouldn't ever count these guys out entirely, especially not in this game.

• Offensive line and QB protection is of course tops on this list. This is even more of an issue now as the lone veteran on the Sooner O-line is out of the game with an injury. Although OU has faced better competition, they haven't faced a defense like this Longhorn defense and that will really put pressure on this line. If Bradford is running for his life in this game, the Sooners have no chance. Furthermore, OU's running game isn't near what it was last year so the offensive line needs a big game just to give the team a chance.
  
• Playmakers are dropping in Sooner land. I know they say Broyles is planning on playing this weekend, but I see that as a desperate move. They're rushing this guy back for this game - I can't imagine he's going to be too effective. But now with Broyles coming in less than 100%, the loss of Gresham for the season, Bradford's injury, and now their best O-lineman, Simmons. Someone's going to have to step up and make some plays. The only thing keeping Bradford from throwing 450 against Baylor was dropped passes. Demarco Murray and Chris Brown need to have a combined big game. This will take pressure off of Bradford for a bit.
  
• The secondary has been surprisingly...bad. Both BYU and Miami were able to put up big passing numbers and touchdowns. No doubt Texas will look to exploit that. Oklahoma is going to have to spend a lot of sleepless nights accounting for one Jordan Shipley. As mediocre as the other receivers have been for Texas, any of them are capable of breaking one off on any given play. I'll be interested to see this.
  

Concerns for Texas - There are plenty my friends. Let's not forget that both of Oklahoma's losses were away from home and by a combined 2 points. That's 2 points from being 5-0. So let's not forget that although they've got some issues, they are certainly capable of winning this game.

• To a lesser extent, offensive line play is a bit of a concern. Texas has a pretty weak running game and a QB running for his life more than I think most expected. Bottom line, they've got to be a lot better in this game. This will be by and far the most talented defensive line this team has faced and will be a big challenge. If the Sooners can get pressure on McCoy and force him into mistakes, it will be hard for Texas to win.
• Our new favorite turnover machine, Colt McCoy. He has to get through this game without turning the ball over. I know some of those picks are the result of receivers dropping balls, but not all of them. I heard this interesting stat on the radio - of Colt's 7 turnovers this season, 5 have come within the first 3 plays of a drive. And 4 of those 5 have come from inside his own 20. Yes, I know, this is way too small to draw any real conclusions, but work with me. Colts' gotta make better decisions early on.
  
• Putting out and APB for the Texas running game. This most definitely will have to improve for this game. For starters, it would be nice if we had any idea whatsoever what our depth chart is. So now I hear Cody Johnson is going to start? OK, whatever. I think at the end of the day, the overall success of the running game will hinge a lot on Colt's ability to make plays with his feet. Whether this is a called play or him seeing an opening and taking it, Texas needs Colt to rush well - it's good for the running and passing game.
  
• Pressure. OU has none of it and Texas has all of it. And this my friends is what worries me most; how will Texas handle the pressure. The Sooners have absolutely nothing to lose. They are throwing everything and the kitchen sink at this - bringing Bradford back, rushing Broyels back...I think they're resting their whole season on this game. I have no doubt Texas will have better athletes given all of OU's injuries, but that don't mean much in this game. You have to want it and play harder to get it. This point will decide the game.
  

Who needs to step up for the Sooners? I gotta go with the offensive line. If they're able to step it up, it will allow the playmakers to do their thing.

Who needs to step up for the Longhorns? Anyone not named Jordan Shipley. Seriously, this really should be Colt McCoy for all the reasons I mentioned above, but you have to throw in the the other receivers here. Kirkendoll, Buckner, Collins - they need to make some plays. Pull in a tough catch, break a tackle, or whatever. Shipley can't do it all himself (which is pretty much what he has done thus far).

With all of this said, I still gotta pick someone to win, right? I'll be honest, I've been leaning towards picking OU all week simply because these pressure situations most have a tendency to bite Texas in the ass. It's Texas' return game and defense that has me leaning back towards the Longhorns. As I said with Colorado, I hoped to see a team that comes out with razor-sharp focus and intensity (of course that never happened against the Buffs), and I I still hope to see this. I'm giving the Texas coaching staff the benefit of the doubt, hoping they can get this team mean and ready to lay the wood. If Texas can get up big, early, I think they'll run away with it, but when have we known Texas to jump out to any early, big leads?

Texas - 34
Oklahoma - 30

One last test for the Gators comes this weekend when Arkansas comes to town. Classic trap game here for the Gators and Arkansas seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. I can't for the life of me understand why Florida is continuing to get coupled with Alabama as the "premier" teams in the league when they've played exactly no one. Of course you can point to the LSU game on the road, which is usually a big game, but LSU is simply not the same team they've been in the past - they're frauds and will get exposed as frauds as the season goes on. They still get Arkansas, Auburn and Alabama this year and I'll go on a limb now and say they lose all of those.

Nevertheless, I don't necessarily think this will be a cake walk and this trap is the same trap they fell into last year when coming off of an LSU win, they get upset by Ole Miss. I don't think Florida will make the same mistake twice, although I would be giddy if they did.

Arkansas' offense is turning into a well-oiled machine, but they will have their hands full with this Gator defense. The key for Florida will be getting pressure on Mallet, who's a very, very good quarterback and if he's got time, he'll pick you apart. I imagine we'll see Mallet running for his life in most of this game, greatly slowing down the scoring attack. I'd love to see the Razorbacks pull this one out, and I guess anything is possible, but I seriously doubt they'll be able to score enough to pull it out.

Florida - 37
Arkansas - 26

It's do or die time for Weis. Win this one Charlie, and you're safe (hell, they'll probably give him a 10-year extension because the athletic dept in Notre Dame seem to be some dumb SOBs). Lose and you'll most definitely be gone at season's end. As good as Clausen's numbers have been this year, and they have been impressive, let's remember that they haven't really played any stellar teams - certainly nothing that would constitute putting them in any sort of "elite" category. And, they're just barely squeaking by these teams. Meanwhile, USC is still somewhat of a question mark for the time being. The win over Cal was a good one, but as usual Cal has proven to be a head case of a team.

I imagine the Golden Domers will be pumped up for this one and I also imagine they'll be able to put some points up on the board on this USC defense. But stopping the Trojan offense is another story. Notre Dame's defense is horrible and USC's offense is getting better and better by the game. I think we're going to see a shoot out here, but the Trojans will ultimately pull away.

USC - 32
Notre Dame - 24

Couple of good ones in the Big 12. Most notably, it's an opportunity for redemption as Missouri visits Oklahoma State. Yet again, a game that will give us some idea (any idea) of just how good these teams are. As will be the case for the rest of their games, a win here and Okie State stays on the national radar so to speak. Lose and you're off of it...probably for good.

Meanwhile, Mizzou is trying to bounce themselves back into the top 25 with a solid road win here. Obviously the Cowboys are capable of dropping a home game (see Houston) and they've been shaky at best. Meanwhile, the Tigers have to be kicking themselves after completely imploding the final 15 minutes of the Nebraska game. If they're serious about contending for the north, this is a must win for the Tigers. Same goes for Okie State, if they want that Halloween game against the Horns to mean anything, they need this win.

In another big game (on paper), Texas Tech visits Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Will be interesting to see how this Nebraska defense can contain Tech's circus offense. The difference in this one is I think the Huskers will be able to get quite a bit of pressure on Potts (or whomever suits up for the Raiders). Look for Tech to turn the ball over more than average and struggle mightily against Nebraska's now formidable defense. Look for Suh to have a huge game for Nebraska.

I'm taking the home team in both games.

Oklahoma State - 27
Missouri - 20

Nebraska - 30
Texas Tech - 22

Let's get a second opinion on those Red Raiders, shall we: http://fannation.com/blogs/post/464779

Other Notes From the World of College Football...

• 2 of the dumbest things I've read/heard this week: 1) Andre Ware said that the advantage goes to Bradford in the QB battle because "he has much more weapons around him than Colt does". Oh really, so you're counting the weapons that are injured and out for this game? Do you're effing homework Andrea. 2) "Tim Tebow seems to be running away with the heisman trophy". This is absolutely absurd. I like Tebow a lot, but I'm so ready for this guy to be gone so the talking heads and writers can come back down to earth. Reminds me of the "Reggie Bush is the greatest athlete to ever play the game" bullsh*t from '04-'05. What happened to Bush in his last game?
  
• Remember when OU went to the Big 12 and national title games last year? Texas won't have that luxury if they lose on Saturday.
• Not-so breaking news out of Boulder, Brad Hawkins has benched his son in favor of the backup QB Tyler Hansen. This was about 2 or 3 games too late.
  
• Cincinnati is looking more and more for real each week.
• Big game in the ACC as Virginia Tech visits Georgia Tech. The Hokies will get a huge test on defense as Paul Johnson and team will have their triple option in full form. Mark this one down as the potential upset of the day. I still say Virginia Tech is one of the top teams in the country, but this will be a big test for Beamer's bunch.
• Rumors swirling of Jon Gruden going to Louisville next year. Interesting....very interesting.
• I hope Boise State is preparing now for the fact that no matter what, they won't make the national title game. Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying it is what it is.

No time to get to the NFL this week, unfortunately, as I've got a busy week. I'll be back with a big recap of the weekend on Monday. In the meantime, enjoy the games and the great weather.

Taking Stock

We're officially into nut-check time of the season where the competition gets tougher and fatigue begins to become a factor - injuries and lack of focus can be a huge detriment to any team on any given Saturday.

Some interesting developments this weekend - here are my thoughts and observations from a very telling week 6.

There are really two teams that have clearly separated themselves from the competition, in my humble opinion...and those teams are Alabama and Virginia Tech. The polls aside, I really think these two teams are playing a much higher level than anyone else right now. Th next "tier" of teams would likely be Florida, Texas and Miami. After that it gets murkier with teams like Oklahoma, Oregon, TCU, Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, USC, etc., etc. Bottom line, the Hokies and Crimson Tide are two very impressive teams.

Be worried Texas fans. I'm not yet ready to get into it, but I've heard just a little bit too much of "we'll be fine". I'll reiterate this next week, but Oklahoma has NOTHING to lose. They aren't competing for a title and that's pretty much that. What they can do is knock off Texas and continue to frustrate Horns' fans by winning ANOTHER Big 12 title.

Love the Texas defense - love it. They're aggressive which means they may give up a big play here or there, but they'll get it back. Always. Special teams, with Shipley and Monroe back there, they've got a chance to score every single time. Offense, you ask? Not so much. Our offensive line is mediocre at best and Colt McCoy has turned into a turnover machine. Yes, I know, he's completing like 73% of his passes - he's also turning the ball over like 1.1 times a game. He's guaranteed to have a turnover when he steps on the field. Championship QBs don't do that. Chew on this, Colorado ranked 111th in run defense coming into the game - Texas had like 45 yards rushing...for the game. Our "leading rusher" went for 20 whopping yards. This team drastically needs someone not named Colt McCoy or Jordan Shipley to step up and make some plays on a consistent level. And yet again, they've got like 7 situational running backs who are big play makers...IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS. But, we have no every-down back. They haven't had one since maybe Jamaal Charles, but probably more like Cedric Benson.

We'll see, I need to noodle on this a bit this week, but I'm not overly confident right now.

Other quick-hit thoughts...

• One more thing on Shipley/Colt - Take Colt off of these absurd heisman lists that are updated weekly and put Jordan Shipley on there. Shipley is hands down the MVP of this Texas team right now. His weekly stats are ridiculous and he is carrying this team offensively.
  
• I'm pretty sure both A&M and Oklahoma State are pretty mediocre teams.
  
• Hoos and I had the exact same question on Saturday night - how is it possible that a program like LSU has such a bad quarterback? That dude is terrible. They are going to lose at least 2 more games with that dude running the show. They had opportunities and they couldn't capitalize...not even close. Top 5 teams don't throw up only 3 points at home on a Saturday night when they've won the previous 32.
  
• I'm sorry, but I'm still not near as impressed with Florida's offense as I was last year. They're defense is wicked, but they are beatable.
  
• I don't know what happened to Jeavan Snead and Ole Miss, but they are not good....not at all.
  
• Damnit UCLA, you had Oregon right where you wanted them.
  
• There's only so many games I can keep saying, I just don't trust Iowa. If they keep winning, we're going to look up and see them sitting at 10-0.
  
• I think Kansas may be secure in the "worst undefeated team" category.
  
• Nice comeback for the Auburn Tigers, though it was a bit short. They just ran into an Arkansas team who was in a must-win situation at home - that's tough no matter who the opponent is an Arkansas looked like a much better team than even a week ago. You've got to start thinking that Petrino and company have figured out the defensive shortcomings of this Razorback team - they had impressive defensive performances in two straight weeks against some high-octane offenses in the Aggies and Auburn.
  
• One more thing about Texas - they're lack of running game is really going to hurt them next week. It's not like OU is churning out yards on the ground either, but Texas seems to treat the running game like some gimmicky formation. You have to commit to the run - linebackers know they aren't going to run a lot so they can sit back into a zone and wait for Colt to throw it. AND McGee and Newton may be out (top 2 RBs). Like I said Texas fans, if this game doesn't worry you, you haven't been paying attention.
  
• Every time Cody Johnson came into the game, the defense knew he was getting the ball - never once did he come in and they faked it to him and passed it. Literally, never once. And please stop with the John Chiles taking a direct snap and running with it. No one's buying it and it doesn't work for sh*t.
  
• I'm not sure Rodriguez made the right call by pulling Forcier - now he's got a QB controversy and that's never good. When you have 2 QBs, it means you have none.
  

Insights, Observations and Musings from the NFL...

• You're going to hear a few "broken record" comments from me today, but Kyle Orton, Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos are just fine, thank you. In fact, they are better than fine right now. Of course they could fall apart and lose 7 of their next 8, but I doubt it. They're focused and Orton simply moves the chains. I've said this a thousand times, but I think (nay, I know) McDaniels knew exactly what he was doing when he was looking at Cassell and then immediately took the Orton trade without much hub-bub. Orton plays his style of game well and Cutler does not.
• Here's something, the Titans and Panthers were divisional winners last year and both had byes in the playoffs. One of them is winless and the other notched its first win on Sunday. There's that turnover you see every year in playoff teams coming to fruition.
  
• The Bengals are for real guys. Pure and simple. Beating the Ravens in Baltimore secured that. This Cincy defense was able to contain a white-hot Joe Flacco, which no other team has been able to do. And remember, they are one fluke play away from beaig 5-0. That fluke play coming against those above-mentioned Broncos who, conversely, are one fluke play from being 4-1. Regardless, both teams are real good and both teams are in control in their respective divisions.
  
• There's an enormous difference between being happy with a win and being relieved with a win - just ask Dallas. That was a pitiful showing in Kansas City. I mean, pitiful. The only glimmer of hope was the explosive (and game saving) day by Mile Austin. He made Tony Romo look about a thousand times better than he really is - kind of like TO used to do.
  
• No, you aren't crazy and that as not a misprint, the Cleveland Browns beat the Buffalo Bills 6-3. Nice.
  
• Another broken-record moment here - how can Russell continue to steal a paycheck from the Raiders? And more importantly, how can Al Davis continue to do the same thing over, and over, and over again knowing it's not now, nor will it ever work? Tom Cable should be barred from the NFL forever if even half of what is alleged against him is true. What a complete piece of crap. If I'm the Raiders faithful, I'm boycotting spending one dime on this organization.
  
• There are two races that are all but over (yes, even this early in the season). Those awards being MVP (Peyton Manning) and Defensive POY (Jared Allen).
  
• This may sound crazy, but could Brady Quinn already be done with the NFL? Small possibility.
  
• Dick Jauron won't have a job in Buffalo come November 1. You can take that to the bank.
• FANTASY UPDATE: We'll see how the final scoring shakes out (tallied on Wednesday), but as of now, it looks like I was able to pull out a 1-point victory. Donovan McNabb's huge return helped pave the way - and Fitzgerald waking up with 2 scores was huge. And, this was with my tight end (Kevin "I'm the" Boss) being out for the game.
  
• Welcome back Demarcus Ware.
  

That's what I got gang - enjoy the week. I'll be back with a HUGE preview later this week.