Judgement Day

It's do or die time for the longhorns (and the sooners). I think this game will really set the tone for the rest of the year...for both of these teams. It's actually a big weekend for a lot of teams around the country - as we know, this is always the mecca weekend for college football fans. I've got to give each of the biggies their due. Here we go:

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners:
I'll be honest (and I'm sure you probably could have guessed), I'm not at all optimistic about this game. I'm not suggesting Texas has zero chance to win this game....but I don't think Texas has much of a chance to win this game. It all comes down to the fact that history has told us that Stoops usually has his players prepared to play at a much higher level than Texas. Granted, the Horns have won the last two meetings and last year's win was really a big statement game/turning point for Texas. I believe we were down 10-7 at half and forced a number of turnovers in the 2nd half to win 28-10 - not too shabby. Ahhh....that was sweet.

And who knows, this team could pull it together and pull out a big, tough win - I just don't think they will. I think it's actually worse that we're getting this OU team coming off a loss. Stoops simply knows how to motivate and inspire his players to play their best against Texas - last year they had no quarterback and the previous year we had Vince Young. They've got a solid and confident passer now and they are getting good production out a couple of different backs.

Let's be honest, there's really nothing about Texas that instills a whole hell of a lot of confidence. You big-time fans are lying if you tell me you're not remotely worried about Colt getting his bell rung again and knocked out of the game. Is Limas Sweed still on this team? And what in the world is Jamaal going to do? Lots of question marks coming off that game last week.

Even more concerning - Greg Davis came out and said (paraphrasing here): "Colt may be putting too much pressure on himself to make plays. I may have given him too much freedom/reign in the offense - we may need to simplify it a bit."

Let me get this straight - you're going to simplify the offense? Rrrrrriiiiiight. I've got an idea, let's find and develop a quarterback who CAN take that freedom and know how to use it. Just give us some semblance of an idea that you know what you're doing Greg...please, just one sign.

Defense? If I'm the Sooners offense, I'm watching a ton of tape and absolutely salivating. Granted, these guys played much better than one might thing against Kansas State, giving up only 290 yards, but they did give up 20 points. I assure this Oklahoma coaching staff will be able to make some big plays on this defense - it's easier when you don't have to worry about linebackers getting in the way.

Oklahoma - 42
Texas - 20

Florida at LSU:
As always a great matchup in the SEC. I've been preaching this for most of the year, but I think LSU is really at a whole other level than any other team. Doesn't mean Florida can't win the game, but I just think - night game in Baton Rouge... I do think Tebow is probably one of the best players in the country (only a sophomore!), but LSU may give him all sorts of fits. Perriloux seems to be playing well when he does get his chances and they've proven they can run the ball at will.

I honestly don't see this ending too close - I do think it will be a good game for about 2.5 quarters or so, but LSU will ultimately wear them down.

LSU - 27
Florida - 13

Big 12 North:
Believe it or not, there are actually a couple of big games coming out of the north. Missouri at Nebraska and Kansas at Kansas State....that's right, Kansas at Kansas State. Obviously Kansas State is coming off of a huge and impressive win and Kansas is somewhere in the top 3 in scoring in the country. I don't are who you're playing, when you're throwing up 35 per game, you've got talent. I think Kansas State is pretty good - especially if that same team from last week shows up. I think they'll handle Kansas, but it should be a good game.

I hate to say it, but I'm pretty disappointed with Nebraska. They're giving up a lot of yards to any and everyone...and Missouri has a pretty strong team. I think Mizzou strolls into Lincoln and whips the Huskers. Missouri by 13.

College Football Quick Hits:

• Heads up Horns fans - if (when) Texas loses to OU this weekend, it will have been their fourth straight conference loss. The good news is the next two games are Iowa State and Baylor....followed by Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. This could be a "rebuilding" year for the Horns.
• Interesting stat on one Tommy Tubberville I saw recently: 9 wins in his last 10 games against top 10 teams; 5-0 against top 5 teams in his tenure at Auburn. WOW!!! As hard as it is to even get a chance to play for a national title, you can't help but to think that they got robbed when his chance came along. Really unbelievable numbers there.
  
• I'm sorry, but I don't see any way that Purdue is going to hang with Ohio State. 2 or 3 touchdown favorites in my book.
  
• Kentucky...in the top 10? Not anymore - 15 point loss to a very impressive South Carolina team.
  
• BEATING THE DEAD HORSE: I know I bring this up a lot and go on and on....BUT, has there been a better season to support the "no polls until first week of October"? You're starting to see writers hit on this more and more. Perhaps a tide is starting to turn???....Check out this article from DMN: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/colleges/topstories/stories/100507dnspotaylor.31737a2.html
  
• I think I'm taking South Carolina to come out of the SEC East...and yes, I know Florida resides in the east as well.
  
• Those defense-less Red Raiders open up conference play Saturday night by hosting a horrid Iowa State team. Why is this a game worth mentioning you might ask? Because next week Tech gets the Aggies - and that's always a fun game. Let's hope the Red Raiders aren't looking ahead because a stumble here would be disastrous. I'm picking Tech in a route here. More on the Tech game - http://fannation.com/blogs/post/64661
• Don't you know that the Bruins are quietly thinking to themselves, man I don't want to give Notre Dame their first victory of the year. That's what every team will be thinking from here on out. We'll see if that Jeckyl and Hyde coach of theirs can get them up for this one. Either way, Notre Dame is just real bad. I say Bruins by 13...they should have a couple of takeaways here that will make the difference.
  

NFL Quick Hits:

• I think we're going to learn a lot about Reggie Bush and this Saints team this weekend. I'm not sure Bush is in his best position for success as a 20 carry-a-game back. I think the loss of Deuce is going to prove too much. Lot of pressure on Bush this weekend - we'll see. You hope he does something good and I'm sure he will, but I just don't think he can carry a team as the every-down back...or anything even close.
  
• Colts will be very interesting this weekend - playing without Joesph Adai, Marvin Harrison and Bob Sanders (and one or two others). I think Sanders is by and far the most detrimental loss (why can't this guy play a full season??). If they can get through this game with a win (playing the Bucs), they'll really have a ton of confidence.
  
• New England is ridiculous good. BUT, let's calm down with the "will they go undefeated talk". We should put a ban on any such talk until the 10th or 11th week of the season.
  
• Tennessee going to Atlanta...and coming off of a bye week may be a statement game. Look for a huge game from Brown and VY.
  
• I'm routing for the Packers from here on out.

Non-Football Thoughts of the Week:

• I swear to God, the NHL has the shortest off season of any other sport - they're already in regular season play!
  
• Don't you know the Phillies, who rode a big high and win streak to get into the playoffs, were bummed to learn they had to play Colorado who came off a "pre playoff" playoff game against the Padres. Talk about a team with momentum. By the way, the Rockies have taken the first two from the Phillies...and now they go back to Denver. OUCH.
• Man o man, for the thousand+ sports writers that called this throughout the past two months, kudos. I'm talking of course about those Yankees - you can't win in the post season without pitching. And as much as I love Clemens, am I supposed to believe that he's going to do anything productive at all? He hasn't played in like 25 days.
  
• So long Cubs, nice ride while it lasted - pulling Zambrano in the first game was playing too conservative and it's going to cost them the series I believe.
  
• If you haven't figured it out yet - as much as I hate MLB, I do love playoff baseball. It just seems more exciting...even though it's really not.
  
• Marion Jones? Sucks to be you. This is terrible to say, but every time something like this comes out, it makes you more and more skeptical of all athletes accused of cheating. Way to go Marion.
  
• Let me throw this one generalization out at you - Chinese people cannot compete at the NBA level. Everyone in Milwaukee is going nuts over this Yi guy. Let's take a look at Yao - how's that working out??? Still waiting....

We'll do it again next week folks - go horns.

Bizarre Weekend

Bizzare weekend indeed. Where in the world do I begin here? Oh yes, I know where to begin...

The Texas Debacle:
Boy oh boy did Texas lay an egg on this Saturday afternoon....IN FRONT OF THEIR HOME CROWD. We learned a lot about this Texas team this weekend and my friends, none of it is good - some of those learnings include the painful realization that this team is nowhere near as good as last year's team; that there is a ceiling to what Colt McCoy can do and that ceiling is not very high; that the defense still has a long way to go (more on this later); and that the Texas Xs and Os coaching is as bad as it's been since who knows when.

Yet again the players came out playing with a fraction of the intensity and emotion that their counterparts showed.
Yet again the coaches refused to make player changes even while Colt was continuously killing any offensive momentum we could muster up.
Yet again we turned the ball over multiple times.
Yet again a Mack Brown team leaves the field, as double-digit favorites, with a loss because his team was sorely outcoached.
Yet again Texas is exposed for the overrated team that it is.
Yet again Texas' special teams never showed up....and never made adjustments.
Yet again a Texas team gets beat by a team with "inferior" players, but players who want it more.

Let's start with the defense as I think this is the most deceiving part of the game. The defense only gave up 272 total yards in the game - that ain't bad at all. In fact, I would take that every single week. Some people's first inclination would be to point the finger at the defense, but you must remember that Kansas State scored 21 points on a punt return, kickoff return and INT return. I know I'm not a math expert, but one could argue that's the game right there. The one criticism I will make is that the defense was blitzing on every single play - I'm not at all opposed to aggressive blitzing - which allowed the Wildcats to easily find gaps/holes between the linebackers and defensive backs. How many times did their QB dump it off in a screen pass-type situation where when the receiver caught it, there was not one defender within 7 yards of him? It happened a lot.

And yet again, the linebackers were non-existent in this game. How can Texas, a top 5-6 recruiting team every single year (literally), not have a stable of half-way decent linebackers ready to step in and make a play (MUCH more on this later)? You also have to give their receivers credit, they played really well and made some big plays. Here's a shocker - they simply wanted it more than us. All in all, you can't really pin this on the defense - our offense didn't ever really give them a chance.

This is where I was most surprised - I was so sure (as I've noted numerous times) that this offense was going to continue to improve each week . WOW, not even close. The offensive line was pushed around, the running game (without a real power runner) was stagnant and a non issue, our big-time receiver Limas Sweed couldn't make a play when we needed one most - he had as many dropped balls as he had catches. And Colt - man, this guy had a rough outing. I think we've seen the best of what Colt has to offer as a QB at this level. Obviously not today, but he's had some great games and he made some big plays and we know he's a smart quarterback. But, he's either not in a system that suits his talents, or we've literally seen the best of what he has. I couldn't help but to remember that he was taken out of a 2A high school - that's pretty small compared to this big 5A teams you see around the big cities. He was clearly knocked silly on Saturday afternoon and I'm not so sure they should have brought him back in, but hindsight...

Finally, the most frustrating part comes to the coaching. At the end of the day I came to my own conclusion that I believe it's far too easy for opposing coaches to exploit the weaknesses of this team. Kansas State knew exactly where to find the open gaps with the short game and there was never a point when Texas was in danger of picking one off - they were wide open. And the general attitude, we were never able to match their intensity. All week we heard over and over again that this was not a revenge game - they're not approaching the game with revenge on their minds. Well, maybe you should!!! I tell you what Ron Prince was telling his team - these guys are not as good as they're advertised, you guys whipped them last year and you're going to whip them again!

And yet again we get the same from Mack - it was my fault, the coaches fault, not these kids fault. Even the hard-core Mack lovers have to be getting a little sick of this. Look, you can hold your players accountable for their performance on the field without berating them in front of the media. It's OK to come out and say, "our team was terrible today, they didn't play with emotion, and they got pushed around...in their own field..." - it's OK when it's true. Yes, the coaches have to take a lot of the blame, but many of these guys are not executing either. It's a bad combo.

I'm not suggesting that we need to fire Mack Brown - that's absurd and he's bought himself at least 3 years of bad/mediocre seasons before he's on the hot seat, but if Mack is going to play the Koom Ba Ya, father figure, nice guy, then he needs to hire assistants who are expert Xs and Os guys and even better motivators. I have absolutely no faith that Mack is able to get this team "up" for a big game. And I know we don't have anyone on the team capable of doing it either - I'll even go so far as to make this prediction: as long as Ron Prince is in the Big 12, he will own Mack Brown; luck for Brown they get a 2 year break from Kansas State starting next year.

Look at the offensive game plan - how many 3-5 yard crossing routes did we run? How many times did we throw the ball down field? Greg Davis lacks innovation and is incapable of putting his players in positions to maximize their skills. Jamaal Charles will never be a power runner - so set up a formation that gets him the ball in the open field. And as always, you can't run the zone read with Colt as QB - this amazes me.

I will say this - I don't have any idea what happened in the OU game, but I know OU was up by 17 or 21 at some point in the second half and probably slowed up and started thinking about Texas, who knows. But, I really can't imagine that Texas has much of a chance next week against the sooners. I don't know if Colt will be ready to play (concussion), but if there's any question as to his health than I would probably keep him out.

I do know this - Bob Stoops will have his team ready.

Upset Madness:
What a weekend for the upsets - the AP top 10 looks might different than it did just a few days ago. I think it's fair to say that there was a good amount of "looking ahead" going on this weekend. But then there was also plenty of old fashioned butt kickin's too (see Texas). Here's a quick look at some of the other intriguing stories from the weekend, but I gotta mention this game first...

South Florida over West Virginia:
For those of you that caught this Friday-night special, you weren't disappointed. Quite an ugly game, but entertaining nonetheless. This will give you an idea - 30 seconds into the second quarter, both teams had 4 turnovers each. I will say this though, I wasn't horribly impressed with either team. Although South Florida was able to stop the dynamic duo of Slaton and White, they gave up a lot of big plays: had WV at 4th and 15 and gave up 22 yards, and had 3rd and 10 or twice in the fourth quarter and gave up first downs on both. Nice win for the Bulls though - crazy shakeup in the Big East. By the way, Rutgers went down to a very bad Maryland team as well.

• I know Florida is replacing their entire defense, but Auburn? Tim Tebow is great, but he can't do it all and he certainly can't play defense. I'm still trying to figure out if this was a good thing or a bad thing for the SEC.
  
• You think Florida may have been thinking about their trip to Baton Rouge next weekend? Certainly understandable.
  
• The AP moved LSU above USC this week - I think it's a no brainer at this point.
  
• the USC "near upset" was a bit deceiving - USC had 460 total yards of offense to Washington's 190. They dominated them, but they committed 16 penalties and turned the ball over 3 times.
  
• We all know it's quite cyclical, but here's my take as of October 1 on the BCS conferences thus far: Pac 10 and SEC are the cream of the crop right now; Big East is not near as good as their team's rankings might indicate; the Big 12 is clearly a quagmire - who in the world is going to win this conference; The Big 10 is just plain bad - with exception to those buckeyes (Wisconsin is a fraud); and the ACC?? Who knows. Nice win by Florida State over Alabama, but what else? I'm not completely sold on Clemson just yet.
  
• Here's a quick look at the AP top ten: LSU, USC, Cal, Ohio State, Wisconsin, South Florida, Boston College, Kentucky, Florida and Oklahoma - S. Florida? BC? Kentucky??? Crazy stuff.

Kelly Pavlick vs. Jermain Taylor:
Had an opportunity to catch this fight on Saturday night and I must say it was one of the best fights I've seen in a long, long time. Granted I don't watch a lot of boxing, but the boxing I do watch is not great. It's amazing how fast these guys can throw a punch. Taylor was lightening fast, but at the end of the day Pavlick just pounded him with jabs until he got the sweet spot in the seventh round. If you happened to see the fight and saw the slow-motion shots of the hit that ended Taylor, it was something else. I don't think Taylor knew where he was for about 4 or 5 minutes after it was over.

As good as the fight was the one bad part of the show was Larry Merchant's post-fight interview. Merchant has no business conducting an interview - it was clear he had no idea what he was asking nor did he have any idea what Pavlick was saying in his answers. It was maddening and embarrassing. HBO should really do better than that.

NFL:

• I don't like them, but I'm starting to turn - I know it's still very early, but I can't imagine any team coming close to competing with Dallas for the NFC title.
  
• I'm not sure there's a bigger story in the league right now than that of the San Diego Chargers - they blew a lead against the Chiefs...THE CHIEFS today. That team is officially a disaster and what must the owner and GM be thinking - we fired Shottenheimer for this??? You know Marty is kicking back with a stiff drink and laughing and laughing about it all.
  
• How about those Detroit Lions - 34 points in the fourth quarter to upend the Bears. Of course Griese didn't help much with his 3 INTs in that same time. Seriously, they're 3-1 right now.
  
• It's amazing how easy and efficient the Colts make winning look - down by 10 to the Broncos, they came back and wiped them out.
  
• How about that AFC West - the Chiefs are leading the division...at 2-2. Did I mention that San Diego and Denver are both in that division as well? Weird NFL season so far.
• Kudos to Brett Favre - he's a fun QB to watch and it's cool for him to have a lot of these records, he's always been one tough SOB.
  

And to top it all off, Austin High beat Westlake for the second consecutive year now. What the hell a maroon anyway??

Great interview with Vince Young on 60 Minutes this weekend - nice glimpse into the flaws of VY, but also how Fisher is helping him to mature and grow. I think Fisher knows he's got something pretty special in the works there in Nashville.