And Then There Were Four....

Here we are again folks, the final four. And yet further evidence that the sports world as we know it is coming to an end. But we'll worry about that come Tuesday - for now, let's get it on...

The crazy thing is we're going to have either an 8 or an 11 seed in the championship game. I conjure up memories of Villanova and NC State shocking the nation in the 80s, but I think both of those teams were better than an 8 seed (I want to say 6 seed). Either way, whether you're Seth Davis, Bob Knight, Dick Vitale, or....ME - at this point you're just guessing. Especially after this year's tournament. After watching multiple games involving each of the final four teams, I'm happy to give you MY expert pick on each team's chances. So here we go...

Butler:
For starters, they were here last year. I'm not sure how lost this has gotten in the hoopla, but after a championship run last year where they were beaten by Duke on a last-second shot, Butler claws it's way back into the Final Four....as an 8 seed.....IN THEIR OWN CONFERENCE!!! That's right, Butler was the eighth best team in their own conference. In my book that points to experience (they were all in the final four last year) and sticking with what they do best. However, one thing to keep in mind about last year's run by Butler - they played in Indianapolis, which is a home game for Butler. This year? Houston....a tad south.

I really love the calm, steady and consistent approach Brad Stephens brings to this ball club. My favorite moment of the tournament is after the Florida win when he told Billy Donovan immediately after the game, "you outcoached the hell out of me" - and he was right....except for one wrinkle - Butler out executed the hell out of Florida. That right there is the difference between winning a war and a battle. Donovan undoubtedly out-coached Stephens, but the final war was won on the court, by the troops. That in and of itself is great coaching.

At the end of the day, Butler's luck will probably run out (go back and look at how they won a lot of these games - last-second shot against Old Dominion and arguably the craziest ending of all time against UCONN). Of course I also believe that you approach each of the first four games COMPLETELY differently than you do the Final Four and Championship games - so I almost look at final four time as a different "season". The fact that Butler, the 8 seed, fell ass backwards into a Final Four game against an 11 seed is solid enough to make them a very viable pick to win Saturday, but don't go buying your Butler Bulldogs 2011 Champs shirt just yet...

VCU:
Who? Now THIS is a storyline for you. And I'm not just talking about the coach (Shaka Smart). In all seriousness, I love this team right now and this story. This is a team that has truly embraced who they are, and have ridden momentum straight through this tournament like shit through a goose. Seriously, name me a team that has been hotter in tournament time in the last ten years? Look at their 3-point percentage (40+) and their team defense? Unbelievable.

But let's hold on just one second and take a step back and look at the environment - they've had yet ANOTHER week to sit around and read about/hear about how great of a story they are. Remember what I said about the Final Four being a whole other ball game? Well, that works in many ways - the pressure they'll feel is like nothing these guys have seen or heard before. Oh, and they'll be playing in a football stadium (which isn't easy for a bunch of gym rats). Don't get me wrong, but if these Rams get cold at all for an extended period of time and Butler continues to do what Butler does well (control the speed of the game), this could be a long afternoon for Shaka Smart and company.

Kentucky:
Not to toot my own horn here, but I've got Kentucky in the finals in my bracket....the bracket that I don't have money on of course, but I digress. The thing the Wildcats have going for them is they are top to bottom, the most talented team in the tournament. Period. Most of these cats (no pun intended) will be in the NBA one day, I'm sure. Of course they're also pretty damn young (and maybe the youngest team in the tournament by far...but can't say for sure), but you wouldn't know that by the way they've been playing thus far. But as I've mentioned a few times, the pressure and atmosphere of the Final Four tends to bring out that weakness more and more.

I love the combo of Brandon Knight and Josh Harrellson. Knight is a bona fide scorer and Harrellson is a workhorse that ANY team would want - he brings a toughness that would not at all exist with this team otherwise so he's almost more valuable than Knight in that regard. Plus, these guys are closing out games and looking strong doing it - where as earlier in the year when they were barely a blip on the radar, they would crumble - and that's also a sign of growing toughness. And finally....

UCONN:
Although I've got Kentucky in the finals in my bracket, I'm leaning very heavily towards UCONN taking this whole thing and I'll give you 1 main reason why: Kemba Walker. By and far the best player/closer in the tournament this weekend....by a mile. Texas fans can probably vividly recall just one of numerous examples of his heroics when he brought the Huskies here into Austin and drilled a game-winner in OT. That's what he does - he wins you games. And his drive/step back shot is, literally, impossible to defend.

And he's got some good help around him, let's not forget that. Although like Kentucky, his teammates are some spring chickens, he's the equalizer.

Final Four Picks:
Butler over VCU
UCONN over Kentucky

Championship Game Pick:
UCONN over Butler (unfortunately not very close)

I'll let the Madness die down before I jump head first into the NBA playoff hunt - but I'll tease with this....look out Spurs' fans, Lakers are creeping....and you get another visit to LA before season's end. I'm just saying....

Enjoy the week!