Conference Finals Preview
And just a few other musings from across the NBA. And just when you thought it couldn't any more exciting than the Lakers/Nuggets in game 1, don't miss the always exciting ping-pong ball derby to determine the lottery team picks in this summer's NBA draft. Or as I like to call it, the Blake Griffin lottery...because after that, does it really matter?
Western Conference Finals (Lakers vs. Nuggets)
Let me just start with this, and I know I've mentioned this before, but if there's anyone out there who has any question as to how valuable Chauncey Billups is, you haven't been paying attention. That much we cannot deny. Now on to the breakdown of the teams.
Denver Nuggets - Let me get this out of the way first, this team is playing at a very high level right now and has to be absolutely brimming with confidence - no one (save for the Cavs) is playing with as much consistency as these guys. But, I'm still waiting for them to fall apart which is what George Karl-coached teams often do. Of course waiting for that to happen can be a dangerous proposition as a Laker fan. Here's the deal with Denver - they're a lot like Cleveland in this sense - they haven't played anyone. I know it's the playoffs, but let's take a close examination of Denver's first two opponents. First, they played a 7 seed New Orleans team that had given up on their coach before the playoffs even started. It was as if the Hornets made a true effort to blow that series so as to ensure Byron Scott's dismissal (which I'm expecting any day now). Second, they got a 6 seed Mavericks team who (and I'm still scratching my head on this one) upset the old, exhausted and short-handed Spurs. So they get the two weakest teams, by far, in the West.
So are the Nuggets playing better? Yes, much better, not denying that. BUT, I'm not yet ready to proclaim them the best in the west because they dodged the Spurs bullet this year. Here's the problem with the Nuggets - they are a better match up for the Lakers than the Rockets were and I'll explain why. First, the Nuggets like to get up and down fast with teams, they really look to push the ball. You absolutely cannot do that with LA. You may score over 100 points, but if you let LA get to the century mark, you're going to lose. Second, they are not a very good rebounding team and this does not bode well when playing a team with 2 seven-footers. Third, George Karl is their coach. And finally, they are a very bad road team (21-20 on the year) and I have no idea why the talking heads all of a sudden feel like they're going to go into LA and win 1 or 2. Why, because they beat Dallas in Dallas? I'll say it again, Dallas is horrible.
The Nuggets will have to change their usual game plan, I think. I imagine they will try and come in and play a very physical type game (hell, wouldn't you after seeing what the Rockets were able to do?) - they can't keep their status quo. They'll also need to do something to try and slow down Kobe - in the regular season (I know most don't think it matters too much, but it's the only gauge we've got) he averaged over 30 points (more than against any other team) while Carmelo averaged well below his average. That won't fly.
LA Lakers - I'd be stupid if I told you I had no concerns about this team right now. The last 4 games of the Houston series were beyond ridiculous. I don't remember a team this talented that looked so hot and cold like that. We all saw the series and with LA, it all comes down to playing with energy and aggression - they HAVE to be on the attack and move the ball. When LA is at their worst is when they come down, make 1 pass and have someone jack up a terrible shot with no one going to the glass. When they get Gasol and Bynum involved in that triangle offense they are tough to beat. How LA got away from this in games 4 and 6 I'll never understand. Of course part of this is on those guys for making the effort to get position and get a body on someone - for God's sake, why do we give Gasol the ball 6 feet from the block with someone 3 inches shorter than him guarding him? I mean, are you kidding me?
I have to talk opponents too, because I mentioned them with Denver. So yes, the Lakers are the top seed and as such get the 8 seed which was Utah this year. I'll tell you this right now - Utah would have beaten the Spurs, Hornets, and Mavs (easily) in the first round and would have put up a similar fight with Houston. Utah went from a 3 seed to an 8 seed in about 3 or 4 games at the end of the year which is very uncharacteristic of them. Utah is the toughest team to beat on the road and they, too play a very physical game. Then they get Houston which was just as much a match up issue than anything. Houston made quick work of every one's dark horse (including mine), Portland and then we saw what they were able to do against the Lakers. The Lakers will most certainly be more battle tested. But will they be exhausted? We'll see.
I hesitate to say anything about this, but size is yet again an advantage for LA here. So you're going to have Melo on Ariza, Jones on Kobe, Billups on Fisher, Nene on Bynum and Martin on Gasol. So again you've got 2 under size guys guarding 2 seven footers. I'm just saying...maybe it's a good idea to attempt to make something happen with that advantage...Phil!
As usual, where the Lakers are most vulnerable is at point guard where Fisher has become a liability. Luckily Billups won't be anywhere near as fast/quick as Brooks was, but he's a big body who can post up any of what the Lakers will throw at them. They'll need to contain Billups and keep him out of the paint and contest his shots.
My prediction - I'm going Lakers in 6. Denver has been the most consistent team thus far, but I worry about how the layoff will affect them AND I wonder how they'll handle such a big step up in competition. How will they respond? Not sure, but in a seven-game series, the most talented team usually wins and so far that's still the Lakers.
Eastern Conference Finals
Fairly similar scenario here in that you've got a team that has played against two opponents, neither of them having any business being apart of these playoffs; then you've got a team that is immensely talented, but has underachieved against tougher teams playing with more heart and energy. Can you guess which ones I'm talking about???
Cleveland Cavs - As I alluded to above a couple of times, these guys haven't had one ounce of competition in these playoffs. None. I don't want to undermine how good they are playing right now, but you can't expect to play that low of competition in the playoffs (welcome to the Eastern conference). With that said, they're still playing with a ton of energy and they *look* like a team with a mission and a purpose.
Lebron James is....well, he's playing like an MVP which is what you'd expect. Even against tougher competition I don't expect him to fall off the radar from where he is now all that much. He's hitting his outside shots (which makes him, literally, unstoppable) and his team is making shots and playing with so much energy (which has to make Kobe jealous). They were certainly get a much bigger test next round and you may think I'm crazy for even thinking this, but don't be shocked to see Orlando jump up and knock these guys off. Not saying it's going to happen, not at all saying that, but I would not at all be surprised. The one weakness that Cleveland has is a lack of inside game and when you're going against Dwight Howard, that's going to be tough. Cleveland is going to have to be hot from the outside in this series because getting points in the paint ain't going to be easy. Something tells me Lebron may have something up his sleeve though.
Orlando Magic - These guys have a little bit of a Laker thing going on in they were a bit inconsistent and lost games they had no business losing. But their ability to fight through and come back and win the last two games after losing the previous 2 was impressive. This team has to be brimming with confidence at this point.
As I mentioned above, these guys have a tremendous size advantage with Dwight Howard down low. Couple that with the fact they are the top 3-point shooting team in the league and you've got a tough match up for the Cavs. BUT, Howard has turned into a "Shaq" with his horrible free throw shooting. Don't be surprised to see the hack-a-howard come out in this series - we saw it a bit in the Boston series. Alston will give Mo Williams some fits with his quickness, but on the defensive end, Alston will have his issues staying in front of Williams too so that match up may be a wash.
At the end of the day I can't pick against Lebron and company here so I'm going Cleveland in 7, but don't be surprised to see Orlando steal this series away from the Cavs.
Random NBA Notes:
Alright gang - that's what I got. All NBA, all the time these days. Enjoy!
Western Conference Finals (Lakers vs. Nuggets)
Let me just start with this, and I know I've mentioned this before, but if there's anyone out there who has any question as to how valuable Chauncey Billups is, you haven't been paying attention. That much we cannot deny. Now on to the breakdown of the teams.
Denver Nuggets - Let me get this out of the way first, this team is playing at a very high level right now and has to be absolutely brimming with confidence - no one (save for the Cavs) is playing with as much consistency as these guys. But, I'm still waiting for them to fall apart which is what George Karl-coached teams often do. Of course waiting for that to happen can be a dangerous proposition as a Laker fan. Here's the deal with Denver - they're a lot like Cleveland in this sense - they haven't played anyone. I know it's the playoffs, but let's take a close examination of Denver's first two opponents. First, they played a 7 seed New Orleans team that had given up on their coach before the playoffs even started. It was as if the Hornets made a true effort to blow that series so as to ensure Byron Scott's dismissal (which I'm expecting any day now). Second, they got a 6 seed Mavericks team who (and I'm still scratching my head on this one) upset the old, exhausted and short-handed Spurs. So they get the two weakest teams, by far, in the West.
So are the Nuggets playing better? Yes, much better, not denying that. BUT, I'm not yet ready to proclaim them the best in the west because they dodged the Spurs bullet this year. Here's the problem with the Nuggets - they are a better match up for the Lakers than the Rockets were and I'll explain why. First, the Nuggets like to get up and down fast with teams, they really look to push the ball. You absolutely cannot do that with LA. You may score over 100 points, but if you let LA get to the century mark, you're going to lose. Second, they are not a very good rebounding team and this does not bode well when playing a team with 2 seven-footers. Third, George Karl is their coach. And finally, they are a very bad road team (21-20 on the year) and I have no idea why the talking heads all of a sudden feel like they're going to go into LA and win 1 or 2. Why, because they beat Dallas in Dallas? I'll say it again, Dallas is horrible.
The Nuggets will have to change their usual game plan, I think. I imagine they will try and come in and play a very physical type game (hell, wouldn't you after seeing what the Rockets were able to do?) - they can't keep their status quo. They'll also need to do something to try and slow down Kobe - in the regular season (I know most don't think it matters too much, but it's the only gauge we've got) he averaged over 30 points (more than against any other team) while Carmelo averaged well below his average. That won't fly.
LA Lakers - I'd be stupid if I told you I had no concerns about this team right now. The last 4 games of the Houston series were beyond ridiculous. I don't remember a team this talented that looked so hot and cold like that. We all saw the series and with LA, it all comes down to playing with energy and aggression - they HAVE to be on the attack and move the ball. When LA is at their worst is when they come down, make 1 pass and have someone jack up a terrible shot with no one going to the glass. When they get Gasol and Bynum involved in that triangle offense they are tough to beat. How LA got away from this in games 4 and 6 I'll never understand. Of course part of this is on those guys for making the effort to get position and get a body on someone - for God's sake, why do we give Gasol the ball 6 feet from the block with someone 3 inches shorter than him guarding him? I mean, are you kidding me?
I have to talk opponents too, because I mentioned them with Denver. So yes, the Lakers are the top seed and as such get the 8 seed which was Utah this year. I'll tell you this right now - Utah would have beaten the Spurs, Hornets, and Mavs (easily) in the first round and would have put up a similar fight with Houston. Utah went from a 3 seed to an 8 seed in about 3 or 4 games at the end of the year which is very uncharacteristic of them. Utah is the toughest team to beat on the road and they, too play a very physical game. Then they get Houston which was just as much a match up issue than anything. Houston made quick work of every one's dark horse (including mine), Portland and then we saw what they were able to do against the Lakers. The Lakers will most certainly be more battle tested. But will they be exhausted? We'll see.
I hesitate to say anything about this, but size is yet again an advantage for LA here. So you're going to have Melo on Ariza, Jones on Kobe, Billups on Fisher, Nene on Bynum and Martin on Gasol. So again you've got 2 under size guys guarding 2 seven footers. I'm just saying...maybe it's a good idea to attempt to make something happen with that advantage...Phil!
As usual, where the Lakers are most vulnerable is at point guard where Fisher has become a liability. Luckily Billups won't be anywhere near as fast/quick as Brooks was, but he's a big body who can post up any of what the Lakers will throw at them. They'll need to contain Billups and keep him out of the paint and contest his shots.
My prediction - I'm going Lakers in 6. Denver has been the most consistent team thus far, but I worry about how the layoff will affect them AND I wonder how they'll handle such a big step up in competition. How will they respond? Not sure, but in a seven-game series, the most talented team usually wins and so far that's still the Lakers.
Eastern Conference Finals
Fairly similar scenario here in that you've got a team that has played against two opponents, neither of them having any business being apart of these playoffs; then you've got a team that is immensely talented, but has underachieved against tougher teams playing with more heart and energy. Can you guess which ones I'm talking about???
Cleveland Cavs - As I alluded to above a couple of times, these guys haven't had one ounce of competition in these playoffs. None. I don't want to undermine how good they are playing right now, but you can't expect to play that low of competition in the playoffs (welcome to the Eastern conference). With that said, they're still playing with a ton of energy and they *look* like a team with a mission and a purpose.
Lebron James is....well, he's playing like an MVP which is what you'd expect. Even against tougher competition I don't expect him to fall off the radar from where he is now all that much. He's hitting his outside shots (which makes him, literally, unstoppable) and his team is making shots and playing with so much energy (which has to make Kobe jealous). They were certainly get a much bigger test next round and you may think I'm crazy for even thinking this, but don't be shocked to see Orlando jump up and knock these guys off. Not saying it's going to happen, not at all saying that, but I would not at all be surprised. The one weakness that Cleveland has is a lack of inside game and when you're going against Dwight Howard, that's going to be tough. Cleveland is going to have to be hot from the outside in this series because getting points in the paint ain't going to be easy. Something tells me Lebron may have something up his sleeve though.
Orlando Magic - These guys have a little bit of a Laker thing going on in they were a bit inconsistent and lost games they had no business losing. But their ability to fight through and come back and win the last two games after losing the previous 2 was impressive. This team has to be brimming with confidence at this point.
As I mentioned above, these guys have a tremendous size advantage with Dwight Howard down low. Couple that with the fact they are the top 3-point shooting team in the league and you've got a tough match up for the Cavs. BUT, Howard has turned into a "Shaq" with his horrible free throw shooting. Don't be surprised to see the hack-a-howard come out in this series - we saw it a bit in the Boston series. Alston will give Mo Williams some fits with his quickness, but on the defensive end, Alston will have his issues staying in front of Williams too so that match up may be a wash.
At the end of the day I can't pick against Lebron and company here so I'm going Cleveland in 7, but don't be surprised to see Orlando steal this series away from the Cavs.
Random NBA Notes:
- Looks like the Clippers get this year's top pick in the draft...not that it matters. What a horrible nightmare for Blake Griffin - my recommendation to him is take the money, sign 3-year deal, use that time to get better and then go where you want to after that.
- This Mark Cuban/Kenyon Martin thing has gotten completely out of hand. Both are in the wrong here, but this is on Cuban. You can't act like a 10-year old when you're the owner of a team. And you sure as hell can't be talking trash to opposing player's moms. And after the spat you had the Dallas fans acting like a bunch of idiots too.....because they saw the owner doing it and thought sweet, now we can do it. Respect for Cuban just dissipated. He's the one who's actually a punk.
- And apologizing via your blog? Really? How big of a coward can you be?
- I would love to see Powell or Odom put an elbow in Chris Anderson's jugular before this Denver series is over - I really hate that guy.
- Kupcheck's homework this off season: Get rid of Andrew Bynum. He's....he's not good. I know he's 7 feet tall and only 21, but he's never going to be the player the Lakers need him to be. Never. And Fisher HAS to retire after this year - just has to. Great career and I love the guy, but he can't play with these guys anymore. Lakers need to get someone who can do the dirty work - tenacious defense and a beast on the boards. They have neither. Kobe is a great, great defender, but they need a big body down low as well. Think Gasol or Odom with a pair of balls and a mean streak. That and I think they need to get another point guard - I like what Farmar is doing, but I don't see him competing night in and night out against the Billups, Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, etc. of the western conference. You've got your scorers in Gasol and Bryant, but you have some work to do. Would love to see them get Artest, who's a free agent now, but that doesn't make sense as he's the same position as Kobe.
- So the Mavericks may be making a run at Shaq? Why? Why would Cuban do this? This is such a bad idea it's ridiculous. Look, Shaq is over the hill...big time. He can't compete night in and night out in anymore. After the monumental mistake of Harris for Kidd, this would fully cement Cuban in the league with Matt Millen, Al Davis and anyone in the Clippers front office.
- Rockets will have an interesting off season. Aside from the above-mentioned Artest situation, which is dicey with the dollars, but what to do with McGrady? My take: you've got to dump him as fast as you possibly can. Here's the problem - he's only got one more year on his contract at $24 million. Obviously they're not going to resign him, but can you find someone who wants him? Especially given he's coming off of surgery and likely won't be playing until December. That's a gut-wrenching situation. I don't see Yao ever playing a complete season/post season in his career so you've also got to find a replacement for Motumbo (who wants to sex Motumbo?). They've got some really good pieces in place, but next year could get interesting.
- Guarateed contracts in the NBA (or any sport) are ridiculous.
- I'm soooo tired of hearing how it's all Kobe's fault when the Lakers come out flat and lacking energy. How about we start holding these guys accountable for the fact that they are sucking ass and playing scared/weak? If I were Kobe, I would have been pissed at Bynum and Gasol in that Rockets series and I think I would have been justified. The problem with Bynum is the coaches/players don't yell at him because he gets his feelings hurt and disengages. Are you kidding me? It's the NBA, sack up or get out. Like I said, Bynum will never be the player LA needs him to be.
- Vintage Kobe on Tuesday night in game 1 against Denver - team didn't show up so he took over. He single-handily won that game. That had to crush Denver's spirits a bit as that was their best shot to take one from LA.
- I think Nancy Pelosi is lying her ass off and I think she's going to hang for it....and I don't mind one bit.
- One of the better seasons of 24 capped off with one of the worst endings. As always though, the door is open for numerous returning characters and plot twists.
- Whether you love him or hate him, A-Rod makes the Yankees soooo much better.
- Alright Vick, let's see what you do this time around - as despicable as this guy was, he's got a shot to make amends for his actions. I hope he makes the most of it. Still not sure if/how he can contribute on the football field though. I'm sure we'll find out.
- Interesting pick putting Gruden in the booth for MNF - I like Gruden, but this was a bit surprising. He certainly knows football, can't argue with that.
- And here come the high gas prices again...
- Why does Dick Cheney continue to talk? If I'm the GOP, I'm putting out a hit on this guy just to shut him up. Look, Dick, whether you choose to accept it or not, people absolutely f'ng hate you...with a passion. You are doing more damage than good right now. Seriously.
- Saw Body of Lies this past weekend with Russell Crowe and Dicaprio. It was just alright.
- The US auto industry will be fascinating to watch over the next 5-10 years.
Alright gang - that's what I got. All NBA, all the time these days. Enjoy!
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 5:35 PM
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