Upset Alert

A quiet, but very good slate of games this weekend to keep an eye on. As we get closer to the end of the year, the potential for a big upset goes up and this weekend looks prime.

Head North on I-35 for two hours, hang out for four hours, head back down south for two hours. That's pretty much all I've got to say about Texas at Baylor this weekend. Look, the Bears had a nice win over Mizzou last weekend, but this should be ridiculous. Even if Mack holds off the dogs, which he most certainly will at some point, this shouldn't be close.

Of course, if I remember correctly, Texas entered the second quarter of last weekend's game down 3-0. Sooo.....right. Don't be surprised to see another slow start for the offense with stalled drives on head-scratching play calling (and probably a horrible INT tossed in), while the defense just smothers those poor bastards. Then the offense will put up 30 points between middle of the 2nd and middle of the 3rd.

Texas - 42
Baylor - 6

Nice little upset discussion with Vassberg this week. So my buddy sent me 3 games with a proclamation that 2 of the 3 would fall. It was a good slate of games that warranted further thought and discussion. Those games were...

West Virginia at Cincinnati - Before I start, how is it that this game is on Friday night? That's ridiculous - this is damn good game. So on the surface, this has upset written all over it. West Virginia is a good team and their losses are relatively respectable (at Auburn and at South Florida) - not powerhouses, but most definitely respectable opponents. Unfortunately, they don't have a big, quality win. Colorado or UCONN are their biggest wins. They'll get their chance for the rest of the year where they close at Cincy, Pitt at home, and Rutgers on the road....Rutgers who absolutely crushed South Florida last night. I'm not seeing this one - Cincy has gone on the road to crush Rutgers, Oregon State and South Florida. They're for real. I'm taking Cincy in a tough win.

Utah at TCU - I was skeptical early this year, but TCU is pretty damn good. Utah is good too, but I can't help but to think they're cashing in on their recent, sustained success this year - I don't think they are near as good as they were last year. Utah is 35th in total offense and 18th in total defense nationwide - that's a balanced team. Like the above-mentioned Mountaineers, they lack a truly quality win, but they do have their lone loss as a quality loss - 7 point loss on the road at Oregon. TCU has gone to Virginia, to Clemson, and to BYU and won big except for Clemson...and oh yeah, if we're looking at apples to apples - they are 8th in total offense and 3rd in total defense nationwide. On paper, TCU certainly gets the edge, and they're at home...TCU in a close, close game.

Florida at South Carolina - Now this one I can see. Much like a few other teams, the Gators have been underwhelming when compared to expectations for them coming into the year. Doesn't mean they suck, just means they lost more than folks realized. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 6-4 with all four losses coming on the road against conference opponents (Bama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas). I'm not saying the Gamecocks are going to win, but I'm saying this is their one, big shot this year to make a statement game. In my humble opinion, if there's going to be one, this is the one.

Some of the other hidden gem games and other nonsense...

• Stanford visiting USC should be interesting and fun. This is a real shot for Hardbough and team to put an impressive, program-turning run together. Would love to see it.
  
• How crazy is it that Oklahoma is 5-4? That's killed Texas' schedule.
  
• Desperation game for Charlie Weiss - a win here and he gets a tad of breathing room. A loss and I think the hat passing process begins. Pitt is good and it's in their home. I'm taking Pitt.
• Hate for Hooser to see this, but I have to root for Oklahoma State on Saturday night. It's the only thing Horns' fans have to cling to in terms of respectable schedule. Interesting game here. Tech is somewhat reeling, but what do you expect with a third-string QB at the helm. Even Tech can't survive that without missing a beat - second string, yes. Third string, no. If Doege is playing, they lose.
  
• Oh, let's not forget this quiet, little gem - Iowa visits Ohio State to decide the Big 10. Ohio State is coming off a huge road win in Happy Valley while the Hawkeyes are coming off a rough loss to Northwestern. Of course the larger concern is that of Iowa's QB situation - they'll be without their starter Stanzi. I still don't entirely trust this Ohio State team, but I can't not take the Buckeyes here. We'll see if Pryor can string together a couple of good games.
  
• Would like to see Cody Johnson get about 17-20 carries this weekend.
  
• What has happened when OU vs. A&M is a meaningless game for us viewers.
  

NFL Notes:

• Real quick, Jay Cutler is not working out well in Chicago. Not working out well at all. They lost to the Niners tonight and he threw 5 picks...and no TDs.
• And all of a sudden, the Giants and Cowboys have switched spots in the NFC East in just about 30 minutes.
  
• Let's not fall completely to pieces on Denver just yet - they just ended a brutal 4-game stretch were going into it, 2-2 was looking good.....and they went 2-2. So let's settle down. The bad news is the Chargers have gone on a bit of a streak and probably built a huge amount of confidence after that win at the Meadowlands. I still think Denver is going to be OK and let's be perfectly frank - haven't they already exceeded their pre-season expectations? I think so.
  
• Before we start celebrating the Cowboys resurgence, let's see how the first couple of weeks of December go. I would still bet one of my toes that they don't win a playoff game.
  
• Remember when the NFC North was going to be an all-out battle between Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota? Whoa, that's not going to happen. I'll give it one, two more weeks before this one is all locked up.
  
• I'm not sure if Pittsburgh is going to lose again. Big game against the Bengals this weekend to take control of the division. They look damn good.
  

That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend.

Stealing the Spotlight

The SEC refs continue to put themselves in the uncomfortable position of having to explain (yet again) why they missed a blatant call that thoroughly helped their precious Crimson Tide. You never want to harp on that kind of stuff, but this is like 4 out of the last 5 weeks where a missed call late in the game certainly affected things. These guys really need a good high-profile game.

Ho-hum year for the SEC - here we are with 3 games remaining in the year and our conference title match up is already set. As everyone in the free world expected, Florida and Bama are your teams. This can get very dangerous for these teams as it's going to be hard for both coaches to keep the guys focused and motivated. Both teams have one potential hiccup on their respective schedules, but for the most part, the toughest games are behind them.

I've said this before and I'll say it again - I just don't know how one can say that one of these teams is any better than another. They both have very good defenses and both have suspect offenses. Hell, Florida only converted like 4 of 13 third downs against Vandy on Saturday. That's....not good. Regardless of what happens, these guys are facing off in the conference title - the question is, will they be playing for a Sugar bowl birth or for the big Rose bowl birth. We shall see.

How does he do it? I just don't know, but yet again, I look at Colt's stats after the game and find myself questioning just how in the world he was able to put up those kinds of numbers. Same for Shipley this week. HUGE game for Jordan (record setting in fact). It's hard to get pumped up about these games the rest of the way as I just don't see anyone coming within 4-5 touchdowns of the Horns. I talked about being most scared about the Aggies, but not so much anymore (really? Colorado?). Let's face it, the Big 12 is waaaaay down this year. Of course, you could say the same for the SEC as well if you look at expectations vs. performance.

Nevertheless, I just don't see these guys being challenged the rest of the way. And the Big 12 title game, you ask? I think the game between Kansas State and Nebraska (this may be next week) will decide who will lose to Texas by 20 points during that first weekend of December.

This Texas defense looks more and more like the most consistent defense in the country week in and week out. I would feel confident with this defense against any offense in the country right now. Tebow, Ingram, Keenum - any of those guys would have a tough time facing Texas right now. A real tough time.

What a mess. I'm talking about the Big 12. I mean, what a complete mess this conference is this year. Kansas - underachievers; Oklahoma - decimated by injuries; Nebraska - zero offense. Right now, it's pretty much Texas and Okie State and that's it. Texas is going to likely go into the conference championship game facing an unranked Kansas State or Nebraska team.

And how is it possible that the Sooners are only able to muster up 3 points in Lincoln on Saturday night. Sheesh, what a horrible, horrible outing for Stoops and company. I think it's safe to say that this team has mailed it in this year. And let's not forget Baylor's upset of Mizzou in Columbia. Talk about a rough day for Tiger fans in Missouri.

Bottom line is this - the Big 12 is laughable this year and I think it's safe to say that they are the low men on the totem pole of conference strength. They have an elite team in Texas and an upper tier team in Okie State, but that's really it.

Other College Football Observations...

• What did I tell you about Stanford? All you Pac 10 haters out there may not like hearing this, but this conference is deep this year. They don't have the usual big, bad USC, but they've got a lot of pretty tough teams.
  
• OUCH Hawkeye fans. Looks like next week's game in Columbus will likely determine who's going to the Rose Bowl. Only so long you can carry a comeback streak like that Ferentz.
  
• When you're wrong, you're wrong - and I was certainly wrong about the Buckeyes and Penn State. Big, big road win for OSU who sorely needed a victory like that. Mr. Pryor just may have exercised some demons in that one. Next week's game against Iowa should be interesting.
  
• My heisman picks at this point: Case Keenum, Mark Ingram or Dion Lewis. I know Lewis is a freshman, but when you're playing as well as he is, you can't NOT be included in the conversation. The last freshman to come close was Peterson who came in second....although he should have run away with it. Colt may crawl back up into the discussion, but he just turns the damn ball over too much. Yet another terrible pick on Saturday.
  
• And there goes the Weiss era in Notre Dame. They went like 30 years without losing to Navy and now they've lost something like 2 straight? Not good Chuck, not good at all. They get to visit Pitt next weekend in what will be a very, very tough game.
  
• Weird stat of the weekend - Nebraska had 180 total yards compared with OU's 325 total yards....and they won. Like I said above, Big 12 is no es bueno this year.
  
• Don't look now folks, but TCU is number 4 in the BCS. And here come the Horned Frogs. Where are the job offers for Gary Patterson I wonder. The Frog fans will have a good shot of redemption (i.e. actually show up to the games) next weekend as Game Day visits Fort Worth for the Utah/TCU match up.
  
• Brian Kelly or Urban Meyer for Notre Dame's next coach? Hmm......

Notes from the NFL:

• My Giants have some real issues that they need to get figured out if they're going to make a serious run for the playoffs. The Chargers are not all that good and that was in New York. They head into a bye week coming up and it's a good thing. Seriously, win your first 5 and then lose 4 straight? Unreal.
  
• How's that Jay Cutler thing working out Bears' fans? Actually, to be perfectly fair, Cutler is the least of the Bears' issues - their defense is a shell of what they used to be. They were humiliated in the first half at home against the Cardinals on Sunday. I mean, just embarrassed.
  
• Paging Green Bay's defense....paging any defense at all in Green Bay. Simply can't lose that game to the Bucs...you just can't. Rogers utterly imploded towards the end of that one.
• FANTASY UPDATE: Man, they had Westbrook listed as probably so I went with him over Sproles and McGahee - neither had any points so it doesn't matter, but still. Maddening. HUGE day for Fitzgerald which helped tremendously. Also picked up Olsen (Bears' tight end) this week and he promptly catches 3 TD passes today. Very nice. But what's really going to help me this week is the fact that Seiders has 2 holes in his lineup for the week.....nice. Seiders, it takes like 2 minutes. Literally.
  
• It's official. The Bengals are bad ass and most definitely for real. They've now beaten the Raves twice in 5 weeks and are 4-0 in division play. The Steelers visit Denver on Monday night which will be interesting to Cincy, but they will visit Pittsburgh next weekend in what will likely be for control of the division. Halfway through the season and Baltimore is left to fight for a wild card. Bengals are fighting the Broncos for the league's biggest surprise team of the first half of the year.
  
• Speaking of first half of the year - let's give out some make-believe, half-season hardware: MVP has got to be a toss up between Brees and Manning; Offensive POhalfY is most Desean Jackson; Defensive POhalfY is Demarcus Ware; Coach of the halfYear, Josh McDaniels gets the nod.
  
• Man, I can't deny it, I really freaking hate Phillip Rivers. I just do. I have no explanation for it really.
  
• Hold on to your hats you blinded, irrational "Texas" Vince Young fans - those Titans are now 2-0 with his dumb ass in the lineup. And he is playing smarter, more efficient these days. It's like he's realized he has one of the best 4 or 5 backs in the league behind him. We'll see, but it's been a really solid couple of games.
  
• And speaking of Longhorns, Cedric Benson just keeps pumping his legs and racking up 100+ yard games....and by the way, he's had 2 of them against Baltimore this year. I don't know what happened to him (probably grew up a little), but he's playing big time football.

That's what I got gang - have a great week.