Playoff Preview
And I don't mean hockey. That's right basketball fans, the second season of the NBA begins today and from the looks of it, we've got a hum-dinger in store for us (unless you're a fan of the eastern conference). It's a lot to cover so let's jump in...
Western Conference Preview
First off, every team in the west has 50 wins which is quite astonishing. one through 8 these are good teams. Realistically, I think there are 5 or 6 teams that could conceivably come out of this conference. Let's take a look at the match ups.
1. LA Lakers vs. 8. Oklahoma City Thunder:
You won't find me riding the Thunder bandwagon like a lot of the other talking heads out there. Look, OKC deserves a ton of credit for how they're improving and I've talked about it here a few times, but they're not going to beat LA gang. In fact, I'll even go so far as to say LA likely sweeps the Thunder. Teams this young and inexperienced don't just stroll into the playoffs for the first time and give the Lakers (they still have Kobe, right?) a run for their money - it ain't going to happen.
With that said, it will be interesting to see what the Lakers throw at Durant to try and contain him. Not to mention, Phil Jackson has already successfully drawn the Durantula into a mind game. Will be interesting to see who they throw at him - Odom, Artest, Kobe....or dare I say Luke freaking Walton? If Walton draws Durant, he'll average 45 points in the series. I'm just saying...
This can be said for all of the series that LA plays in, but Artest is the X factor here - the Ariza for Artest trade was made for one reason and one reason only - the playoffs. I think the Lakers got tired of having Carmelo and Artest push them around in last year's playoffs - they had no answer for either of those guys. It remains to be seen if this trade will pay dividends (I believe it will).
Bottom line is OKC is a quick, fast team, but they aren't as smart of a team as LA. And they have a glaring weakness in their front court defense which should translate into the Gasol show in this series - look for the Spaniard to do most of the heavy lifting in this series. I said above I see a very good chance for a sweep here, but I'll throw the Thunder and ex-Longhorn Durant one bone. Lakers in 5.
2. Dallas Mavericks vs 7. San Antonio Spurs:
Arguably the most intriguing match up of these playoffs. And trust me, everyone in Dallas let out a worrisome moan when this pairing was announced - if there's a chance for a high-seed upset, this is it. This San Antonio team is old and getting older by the minute which won't bode well for a long series (or run in the playoffs). BUT, this team has the savvy and experience to beat anyone in a single series. Caveat here is how disappointing has the Richard Jefferson trade been? Very.
Meanwhile, the Mavs are the interesting enigma of the year. We've seen it time and time again - they have a great regular season and collapse in the playoffs. BUT, this is a new team with a new coach and from the looks of it, a new identity. The Caron Butler trade seems to have added another layer of physicality to the mix which has always been Dallas' glaring weakness.
The longer this series drags out the better it will be fore Dallas, but San Antonio certainly has the chops to pull an upset....I just don't think they will. Dallas is long and deep and of course home court is always good. Mavs in 6.
3. Phoenix Suns vs 6. Portland Trailblazers:
Both of these teams have been playing at a very high level the last month or two - at the same time, both have overcome quite a few injuries this year (I won't get into the "I told you so" on Oden) so both have a lot of seasoned players. I'll be honest, if Brandon Roy weren't hurt I'd say this is going to be the most entertaining series of the first round. With him out I just think it may be too much of a loss.
Give Phoenix a lot of credit for turning things around from last season to this and if I didn't know any better I'd say Steve Nash is getting younger. He, Stoudemire and Hill have really gotten into a grove. I don't think Portland has anyone who can keep up with Amare - he'll abuse Aldridge. I'm betting Jason Richardson has a big post season and will be a key X-factor for these guys at some point in this or the next round.
I like Portland, but I just don't like them without Roy - he's their unquestionable leader and leading scorer. Losing a guard like him who's your top scorer is extremely tough to compensate for, especially in the playoffs.
Bottom line is the games between these teams were close and they have gotten better as the season closed out - the Camby trade turned out to be a great move for Portland and Stoudemire is playing like he's in a contract year (oh wait, he is). Roy loss is too much, but still a tight one. Suns in 7.
4. Denver Nuggets vs 5. Utah Jazz:
Veeeeeery interesting series here. Utah can't win in the playoffs and Denver can't win on the road so chew on that before we contemplate this one. This, too, will be quite a tight series in my opinion, and I think a big factor here will be the health of Kenyon Martin and more specifically, what he can actually do. If he's ineffective, Denver may be in trouble.
These teams are pretty darn evenly matched which will make for a fun series - both teams are very efficient offensively and usually run a bit. The difference will be the Deron Williams/Chauncey Billups match up. Personally, I think these guys are 2 of the top point guards in the league and should be fun. Billups has a size/experience advantage, but Williams is fast and quick. That will be fun to watch.
As I said, Denver can't win on the road, but they get an extra home game. Home court is my deciding factor here. Denver in seven.
Eastern Conference Preview
At first glance, the east match ups don't look quite as intriguing because hey, the east simply isn't as deep as the west. But if you take a closer look, there's some good basketball going on on the right coast and we could have some very interesting story lines.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs 8. Chicago Bulls:
The bulls are a good, young team and I believe they'll be an up-and-coming team in this league over the next hand full of years, but now? I don't think so. I mentioned the differences between the east and the west this year - well the 8 seed in the west (OKC) was a 50-win team and Chicago was a .500 team. This is a Cavs team that, in my opinion, is on a mission. I see a lot of similarities between this team and Kobe's Lakers of the last 4 or 5 years before they got Gasol - improvements each year without being able to get over the hump. Well, they look like they'll have a real chance to get over that hump this year.
Put me on the list of folks who thinks Shaq will be a non factor in this series (and in these playoffs). The Cavs like to run on teams and Shaq's fat ass isn't conducive to that - I don't care how much weight he's lost since he's NOT been playing the last month or two, he simply can't keep up anymore. Couple of notable things to watch in case you're watching this series. First, the match up between Noah and Varejao - those are some evenly matched players down low in the paint. And if you've never watched Derrick Rose play, check him out because he is something else. He's a super star in the making. With that said...Cleveland in 5.
2. Orlando Magic vs 7. Charlotte Bobcats:
Welcome to the same story on a different day - moving from hack-a-shaq to hack-a-dwight. The Bobcats have 3 pretty good centers who can take turns taking strategic fouls and sending Superman to the line where Dwight Howard is HORRIBLE.
This series is not unlike the Lakers/Thunder where you have an experienced, talented team going against a playoff virgin team, but that has a chance to present some challenges. Don't be fooled by the season series between these two teams - 2 of Orlando's wins came in the first month of the year, BEFORE Stephen Jackson joined Charlotte. I don't think Charlotte can beat Orlando, but they can create some frustration for them.
The Magic's success in these playoffs will center around Vince Carter's and Rashard Lewis' production and efficiency. If these guys are hitting their jumpers and 3s, it will open things up for Howard. If not, could be a long series. Magic in 6.
3. Atlanta Hawks vs 6. Milwaukee Bucks:
Welcome to the Brandon Jennings show - this year's unquestioned Rookie of the Year. It will be fun to watch, but it won't last long because without Bogut, the Bucks have little to no chance to take this series. Josh Smith and Al Horford are going to have a field day in the paint without the Auzzie in the middle.
The Atlanta Hawks have been a great story that no one seems to be paying much attention to over the last couple of years. Teams like the Hawks are doing their part to bridge the talent gap between the east and west. Not much else to say - the Hawks simply have too much talent. Hawks in 4.
4. Boston Celtics vs 5. Miami Heat:
I just don't know how Miami isn't better. Dwayne Wade is a beast, Michael Beasley is playing great ball, you've got O'neal and Haslem - how are these guys not better? I don't get it. Meanwhile, you've got the NBA's version of the seniors tour with Boston.
The best thing Miami can hope for is for this game to last at least 6 games. Boston simply doesn't have the legs to last too long in a long series - Miami has the edge in that sense as they are younger (sans Jermaine Oneal).
Rajon Rondo will be key for Boston - if he can keep the Heat on their heels and guessing, Boston will have a chance, but I just don't see that happening for a 7-game series. I trust Wade more than any of the big 3 on Boston - the Celtics have lived in mediocrity for the past....well, year it seems like. I'm still a KG fan and like his fire, but you have to have the legs to fan that fire and he ain't got it anymore. Heat in 7.
Potpourri:
Western Conference Preview
First off, every team in the west has 50 wins which is quite astonishing. one through 8 these are good teams. Realistically, I think there are 5 or 6 teams that could conceivably come out of this conference. Let's take a look at the match ups.
1. LA Lakers vs. 8. Oklahoma City Thunder:
You won't find me riding the Thunder bandwagon like a lot of the other talking heads out there. Look, OKC deserves a ton of credit for how they're improving and I've talked about it here a few times, but they're not going to beat LA gang. In fact, I'll even go so far as to say LA likely sweeps the Thunder. Teams this young and inexperienced don't just stroll into the playoffs for the first time and give the Lakers (they still have Kobe, right?) a run for their money - it ain't going to happen.
With that said, it will be interesting to see what the Lakers throw at Durant to try and contain him. Not to mention, Phil Jackson has already successfully drawn the Durantula into a mind game. Will be interesting to see who they throw at him - Odom, Artest, Kobe....or dare I say Luke freaking Walton? If Walton draws Durant, he'll average 45 points in the series. I'm just saying...
This can be said for all of the series that LA plays in, but Artest is the X factor here - the Ariza for Artest trade was made for one reason and one reason only - the playoffs. I think the Lakers got tired of having Carmelo and Artest push them around in last year's playoffs - they had no answer for either of those guys. It remains to be seen if this trade will pay dividends (I believe it will).
Bottom line is OKC is a quick, fast team, but they aren't as smart of a team as LA. And they have a glaring weakness in their front court defense which should translate into the Gasol show in this series - look for the Spaniard to do most of the heavy lifting in this series. I said above I see a very good chance for a sweep here, but I'll throw the Thunder and ex-Longhorn Durant one bone. Lakers in 5.
2. Dallas Mavericks vs 7. San Antonio Spurs:
Arguably the most intriguing match up of these playoffs. And trust me, everyone in Dallas let out a worrisome moan when this pairing was announced - if there's a chance for a high-seed upset, this is it. This San Antonio team is old and getting older by the minute which won't bode well for a long series (or run in the playoffs). BUT, this team has the savvy and experience to beat anyone in a single series. Caveat here is how disappointing has the Richard Jefferson trade been? Very.
Meanwhile, the Mavs are the interesting enigma of the year. We've seen it time and time again - they have a great regular season and collapse in the playoffs. BUT, this is a new team with a new coach and from the looks of it, a new identity. The Caron Butler trade seems to have added another layer of physicality to the mix which has always been Dallas' glaring weakness.
The longer this series drags out the better it will be fore Dallas, but San Antonio certainly has the chops to pull an upset....I just don't think they will. Dallas is long and deep and of course home court is always good. Mavs in 6.
3. Phoenix Suns vs 6. Portland Trailblazers:
Both of these teams have been playing at a very high level the last month or two - at the same time, both have overcome quite a few injuries this year (I won't get into the "I told you so" on Oden) so both have a lot of seasoned players. I'll be honest, if Brandon Roy weren't hurt I'd say this is going to be the most entertaining series of the first round. With him out I just think it may be too much of a loss.
Give Phoenix a lot of credit for turning things around from last season to this and if I didn't know any better I'd say Steve Nash is getting younger. He, Stoudemire and Hill have really gotten into a grove. I don't think Portland has anyone who can keep up with Amare - he'll abuse Aldridge. I'm betting Jason Richardson has a big post season and will be a key X-factor for these guys at some point in this or the next round.
I like Portland, but I just don't like them without Roy - he's their unquestionable leader and leading scorer. Losing a guard like him who's your top scorer is extremely tough to compensate for, especially in the playoffs.
Bottom line is the games between these teams were close and they have gotten better as the season closed out - the Camby trade turned out to be a great move for Portland and Stoudemire is playing like he's in a contract year (oh wait, he is). Roy loss is too much, but still a tight one. Suns in 7.
4. Denver Nuggets vs 5. Utah Jazz:
Veeeeeery interesting series here. Utah can't win in the playoffs and Denver can't win on the road so chew on that before we contemplate this one. This, too, will be quite a tight series in my opinion, and I think a big factor here will be the health of Kenyon Martin and more specifically, what he can actually do. If he's ineffective, Denver may be in trouble.
These teams are pretty darn evenly matched which will make for a fun series - both teams are very efficient offensively and usually run a bit. The difference will be the Deron Williams/Chauncey Billups match up. Personally, I think these guys are 2 of the top point guards in the league and should be fun. Billups has a size/experience advantage, but Williams is fast and quick. That will be fun to watch.
As I said, Denver can't win on the road, but they get an extra home game. Home court is my deciding factor here. Denver in seven.
Eastern Conference Preview
At first glance, the east match ups don't look quite as intriguing because hey, the east simply isn't as deep as the west. But if you take a closer look, there's some good basketball going on on the right coast and we could have some very interesting story lines.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs 8. Chicago Bulls:
The bulls are a good, young team and I believe they'll be an up-and-coming team in this league over the next hand full of years, but now? I don't think so. I mentioned the differences between the east and the west this year - well the 8 seed in the west (OKC) was a 50-win team and Chicago was a .500 team. This is a Cavs team that, in my opinion, is on a mission. I see a lot of similarities between this team and Kobe's Lakers of the last 4 or 5 years before they got Gasol - improvements each year without being able to get over the hump. Well, they look like they'll have a real chance to get over that hump this year.
Put me on the list of folks who thinks Shaq will be a non factor in this series (and in these playoffs). The Cavs like to run on teams and Shaq's fat ass isn't conducive to that - I don't care how much weight he's lost since he's NOT been playing the last month or two, he simply can't keep up anymore. Couple of notable things to watch in case you're watching this series. First, the match up between Noah and Varejao - those are some evenly matched players down low in the paint. And if you've never watched Derrick Rose play, check him out because he is something else. He's a super star in the making. With that said...Cleveland in 5.
2. Orlando Magic vs 7. Charlotte Bobcats:
Welcome to the same story on a different day - moving from hack-a-shaq to hack-a-dwight. The Bobcats have 3 pretty good centers who can take turns taking strategic fouls and sending Superman to the line where Dwight Howard is HORRIBLE.
This series is not unlike the Lakers/Thunder where you have an experienced, talented team going against a playoff virgin team, but that has a chance to present some challenges. Don't be fooled by the season series between these two teams - 2 of Orlando's wins came in the first month of the year, BEFORE Stephen Jackson joined Charlotte. I don't think Charlotte can beat Orlando, but they can create some frustration for them.
The Magic's success in these playoffs will center around Vince Carter's and Rashard Lewis' production and efficiency. If these guys are hitting their jumpers and 3s, it will open things up for Howard. If not, could be a long series. Magic in 6.
3. Atlanta Hawks vs 6. Milwaukee Bucks:
Welcome to the Brandon Jennings show - this year's unquestioned Rookie of the Year. It will be fun to watch, but it won't last long because without Bogut, the Bucks have little to no chance to take this series. Josh Smith and Al Horford are going to have a field day in the paint without the Auzzie in the middle.
The Atlanta Hawks have been a great story that no one seems to be paying much attention to over the last couple of years. Teams like the Hawks are doing their part to bridge the talent gap between the east and west. Not much else to say - the Hawks simply have too much talent. Hawks in 4.
4. Boston Celtics vs 5. Miami Heat:
I just don't know how Miami isn't better. Dwayne Wade is a beast, Michael Beasley is playing great ball, you've got O'neal and Haslem - how are these guys not better? I don't get it. Meanwhile, you've got the NBA's version of the seniors tour with Boston.
The best thing Miami can hope for is for this game to last at least 6 games. Boston simply doesn't have the legs to last too long in a long series - Miami has the edge in that sense as they are younger (sans Jermaine Oneal).
Rajon Rondo will be key for Boston - if he can keep the Heat on their heels and guessing, Boston will have a chance, but I just don't see that happening for a 7-game series. I trust Wade more than any of the big 3 on Boston - the Celtics have lived in mediocrity for the past....well, year it seems like. I'm still a KG fan and like his fire, but you have to have the legs to fan that fire and he ain't got it anymore. Heat in 7.
Potpourri:
- Great, great, great Masters this year - could not be happier that Mickelson pulled this one out. Nice to see some sort of joy in his and his family's lives and what a great way to get it. His shot out of the pine needles on Sunday may be one of the best shots I've seen...maybe ever. Nice, touching moment for Phil and Amy Mickelson.
- Memo to ESPN - there's no measure to how much we DON'T care about when/if Tiger is entering tournaments. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out for him.
- One more thing on golf - how about that run by Anthony Kim on Sunday? This cat can play and he can play with anyone. I look forwarded to watching him some this year.
- I don't see how St. Louis can't take Bradford - any trade bait would have to be pretty darn tempting. I'm not an OU guy (understatement), but he's the best QB in this draft, no question.
- Speaking of the NFL, how about the trade activity this year? Donovan to Washington, Marshall to Miami? And who knows what the hell the Steelers will look like at the halfway point of the season. How crazy is it that Santonio Holmes was the Super Bowl MVP just a couple of years ago and now he's playing for the Jets and Pittsburgh only got a 5th rounder for him. Nuts. All of those teams I just mentioned - Jets, Dolphins and Redskins should be considerably better.
- I'm putting my money on Washington trading Haynesworth before the season.
- Based on all I've seen and read on the Roethlisberger mess I've come to this conclusion - he's a piece of crap...but not quite as big of a piece of crap as the OFF DUTY POLICE OFFICERS ACTING AS HIS BODY GUARDS WHO ALLOWED THIS TO HAPPEN!!!! I mean, really? We'll see what happens, but Goodell can't suspend Pacman Jones like he did and NOT suspend Roethlisberger. I think the more details that come out, the more likely he gets a 6-game suspension. I think it will be either 4 or 6 - hoping 6. He's garbage.
- You all know how much clout I put in Peter King and so this is why I'm getting higher and higher on Colt McCoy than I have been. I've been one of these saying he'll be a backup his whole career. But hell, he just keeps impressing teams more and more as the draft gets closer. I still say there's no way someone takes him in the first round, but sounds like he'll get his shot one way or another.
- How does Calipari continue to reload like he does? Because he gets his players drafted.
- Don't read too much into the spring game Texas fans - won't mean a thing when things kickoff next year.
- Speaking of next year's football season - Texas has a stretch between late September and early October where they go to Lubbock, get UCLA at home, get OU and then Nebraska. That will be a test for young Gilbert right there.
- Most intriguing team to watch in the Big 12 next year: Texas Tech - can't wait to see what Tuberville will do there.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 8:53 AM
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