Saturday, February 01, 2014

Super Strong Extravaganza

My my my, how things have changed since we were last together. A new regime on the 40 acres, Peyton Manning entering "no he de'ent" territory, Rick Barnes giving the coaching performance of his career, and Pete Carroll is in a Super Bowl. That's quite a lot...where shall we begin?

Stronghorns:
I'm sure you won't hear that enough over the next 6-9 months (or buy the T-shirts)...in all seriousness, I know this is "old news", but this is a great thing for this program. People wanted a regime change, new mentality, new culture - well, that what we got. The more I got removed from the actual news of the change, the more I liked this move. Young, energetic, experienced, hard-nosed and trusts his instincts and methods. More importantly, he's 100% about football and football players.

My expectations are next to zero when it comes to this first recruiting class - and I'm sure there will be some players who won't take kindly to the new world order, but that's ok. That's part of it. This program needs a drill Sergeant right now and this team will be better because of it. The structure and discipline that he's bringing will do wonders - now maybe if a player is struggling to make his grades, they'll find out a little earlier than a week after grades come out.

I have no predictions or expectations about the coming year - it's ludicrous to even suggest it. But I do believe that regardless of the record next year, Texas fans are going to like the type of effort these players are giving. I expect a slow start - which could get ugly with games against BYU and UCLA early - but by the end of the year this team is gelling. I'm a big fan of this hire.

Super Manning Bowl:
Let's be honest, the season Peyton Manning has been quite spectacular. It's only fitting that he ends up in the big game this year, especially after last year's debacle. When you look at the injuries this team has endure over the season, especially with not having Miller on the defense, it's impressive how they've continued to play at such a high level. This is a team with a bunch of players who have bought into the system and know how to do their job. This should be a hell of a challenge for Manning and company. Side note - does anyone else ever get the feeling that John Fox is just along for this ride? I love the guy, but I can't help thinking that every time I see him.

On the flip side, so Pete Carroll is really in the Super Bowl? Huh. Either way, he's got himself a hell of a team here. Obviously the defense is what gets the props on this team and rightfully so. That IS this game - number 1 offense vs number 1 defense. It doesn't get much better than that. As much as I'd like to see Manning get another Super Bowl, and as good as Denver is, I'm not calling this a for-sure Denver win. Seattle is more than equipped to beat Denver. With all the talk about the defense, if Seattle is going to pull this out Russell Wilson is going to have to make a play with his arm. I'm not saying he can't or won't do it, but I do believe it comes down to that. In the last handful of games his passing statistics went way down, but they've also got Lynch who's been a beast since the midway point, and a defense that can give you easy points - so Wilson hasn't had to be great. But you still wonder. He made some great plays in that title game, but he also had some questionable decision making. I expect Lynch will have a big game, regardless of the outcome.

As ridiculous as it is that they are playing this game in Jersey in February, at least it doesn't really give either team an advantage one way or another. Sure Denver plays in the Rockies, but this is pretty cold. Combine the legend of "Manning in cold weather" and Seattle's performance/record on the road and you've got a pretty evenly matched pairing. I have to give a slight edge to Denver here of course. While I do believe Seattle will be able to exploit some things in the Denver defense, I think Manning will be able to figure out that secondary just enough times to make a difference. Lower scoring than if this game were in Arizona or Houston (where it should be).

What it will take for Denver to win...
1) Peyton, Peyton and more Peyton. This won't be about making big, long bomb throws (we're beyond in the Manning's world). It's about dinking, dunking and keeping the ball moving down field. The more than can keep that Seattle defense on the field - and back on their heels - the more they will chip away at that confidence and that's when big breakdowns happen.

2) Tame the Beast - absolutely, positively cannot let Lynch go off. If that happens, start crying now Broncos fans. Make Lynch suffer when he touches the ball....and keep his YPC under 3 and Denver will be in prime position to dominate this game.

3) Kick it up a notch - pardon the horrible pun, but this could go for both teams. Sounds like the weather is going to cooperate more than expected, but it will only get colder as the game goes on. That usually spells the kicking game being pretty important. Make your field goals, and pin Seattle deep. Seattle's offense isn't near the level of Denver's, we know that, but if you give them a short field, they'll make you pay. Kicker may be one of the most important positions in this game.

What it will take for Seattle to win...
1) Counter to number 2 above - Unleash the Beast. I'll put it in the simplest terms I can: If Lynch gets 130+ yards, I'm calling it here. Seattle will win this game. And let's not forget one thing - Denver's defense isn't near as good as San Francisco's and Lynch had a pretty good game there. Keep that in mind. PLUS, we've seen how he performs after a bye week. He is unequivocally the key to this game.

2) Seattle's QB is going to have to play like a QB - I don't say this to dog Wilson. Obviously he's been effective, albeit a little inconsistent, especially down the stretch of the season. But let's be fair: he does enough to move the chains and help his team win. We don't expect him to be Peyton, not even close, but at some point, if the Hawks are going to win this game, he's going to have to make a big play or two with his arm. Not saying he can't do it, we know he can, he just hasn't done it (or had to do it) since late in the season.

3) Get to Manning - We all know what happens when Manning has time and isn't disrupted. He makes you pay. Seattle is going to have to get pressure on him, disrupt his timing and get him on his back. Even if you aren't sacking him, make him know you are there. The good news for Seattle fans is they have the defense to do it. Granted, Denver's O-line is playing GREAT right now and they won't make it easy on Seattle, but if that Seahawk defense can get to Peyton and simply disrupt his timing with 3-4 rushers, it's going to be very hard for Denver to win.

What does it all mean...
At the end of the day it comes down to this. I*think* Seattle has the weapons to make enough plays to beat this Denver team, and I think they have the defense to keep the high-flying machine at bay. BUT, I *know* Denver has the weapons to make big plays and I certainly know what their QB is capable of. So I'm going with what I'm pretty sure I know vs what I think.

Denver - 27
Seattle - 21

I'd love to get into the Running Horns, but don't have time. I'll just say this - Rick Barnes is having the best coaching performance of his career with a bunch of no-name misfits (predominately underclassmen too). No one, and I mean NO ONE, wants to play this team right now. They could be very, very dangerous in the tournament. BIG game today at the Drum with Kansas coming to town. They don't even have to win to impress today. Just compete.

Going to be hard for Patterson to make a change after this season.

Enjoy the big game tomorrow.

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