Fool Me Once....
Shame on you. Fool me 9 times, shame on me....That's the moral of this story Longhorn fans. Not that there are too many of you with much hope at this point. Admittedly however, I woke up this morning with a sense that we've avoided upsets thus far this year....and this is as good a week as any to expect some sort of shake up - this is typically the time of year we see the upset bug taking it's toll. Let's examine some key match ups and look at the upset potential....
Texas vs. Oklahoma:
Don't worry, I ain't picking this upset as much as I'd love to see it. I will say this, the one, tiny, minuscule chance Texas has of pulling the upset is to keep it close up to the last 10 minutes of the game and just hope/wait for that one play or bounce of the ball that turns the tide. A missed field goal; tipped pass leading to INT; blocked punt; whatever. Those things have a tendency to happen in games like this.
In all seriousness though, this OU team is certainly NOT the as strong as past Sooner teams, but that doesn't mean they still aren't better than Texas. Even with the loss of senior linebacker Nelson, they've still got a strong D that will no doubt give Case and company fits. If I'm OU I'm putting 9 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and 7 guys within 5. I'll give Case 15-25 yard pass options all day long because we all know he can't make the throws, and the Sooner Dbacks are athletic enough to make some plays. If Texas turns the ball over two or more times, it's over. Big time.
Offensively, however, the Sooners are more of a question mark. The bad news is saying the Texas D is a question mark would be a complement at this point. Do they appear to be getting better? It would seem so, but not where they should be. Again, if I'm OU, I'm running Bell around the end on zone reads in 10 of my first 12 plays - I will force the subject, even if it means I punt on my first couple of possessions - this OU running game has the ability to simply wear Texas down.
As always, this game comes down to emotion and heart and we all know who comes into this game with more of it, more times than not. I have absolutely no reason to believe this year is any different other than this is Mack's last hooray (unofficially). I would love to see him take the "fuck it, I'm coming guns a blazin'" approach, but I don't see it. And let's not forget the elephant in the room that has been teased and dangled in front of Texas fans all season: Tyrone Swoopes. This is one area that makes you wonder if Mack has been lying to us, or simply unsure of himself (little of both I think). My thought is this - you have NOTHING to lose. Nothing. Why not pull his redshirt and let him play. I mean, one thing most of us can agree on is that there is very little doubt that Case IS NOT the guy. I heard it put best this morning on the radio: Mack's handling of Swoopes at this point is like this. If you're at home and you've got terminal cancer, but you just got a brand new hot rod of a car - are you going to let it sit in the garage for your wife's new husband to drive after you're gone, or are you going to take it out and get everything you can out of it? Well said. And I agree.
Oklahoma - 32
Texas - 17
Florida at LSU:
Florida seems to be the only team left in the conference this year playing your typical "SEC-style football" with a solid defense and efficient, but not flashy offense. Scratch that, their defense is GREAT as most Gator defenses are. And with Tyler Murphy taking over for the injured Driskel, the offense has limited turnovers and improved completion percentages. In other words, become more efficient with less mistakes. We've seen the Tigers in a shoot out this year, but they certainly have not faced a defense near as good as this Gator unit which should be interesting.
Give Mettenberger a lot of credit though, this kid is balling - having already thrown for 15 touchdowns compared to 12 all of last year. That's a huge improvement, especially given who they play. I'll be very interested to see how he handles the test this weekend. On the flip side, another element that Murphy brings is his ability to make plays with his feet and extend a series. This can, and will be, a difference maker in my opinion. One thing that stood out to me in the LSU/Georgia game was how often the LSU secondary was blatantly out of position. There were 3 Georgia TD passes where there wasn't a defender within 7 yards of the receiver, and as he trotted into the end zone you could see the LSU defensive backs pointing at each other. I have faith they'll continue to shore this up throughout the year, but Murphy will make them pay. He's no Aaron Murray, but he's a smart player who limits risks. I'm going AGAINST my prediction in Thursday night's pod cast and taking the Gators here in what I guess is technically an upset in Death Valley.
Florida - 35
LSU - 34
Baylor at Kansas State:
Rrriiiiight. The only upset I see here is Kstate breaking the 70-points-per-game trend the Bears are on. Baylor by 35.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss:
After the last two weeks, this game simply has very little interest for me and others. However, I will say, if Ole Miss is looking for an opponent to face that helps them get their offense back on track (22 points total in last 2 weeks...which were losses), the Aggies are a damn good defense to be facing. The problem is you also have to face their offense. If the Rebels are able to regroup offensively and come out sharp and limit mistakes/turnovers, they can make this a decent game (decent..not great). At the end of the day though, I have yet to see someone shut down the Aggie offense (hell, even just contain them!!!). I don't see this being too close heading into the last 12 minutes.
Aggies - 44
Ole Miss - 30
Missouri at Georgia:
In the interest of full disclosure I literally know NOTHING about Missouri. Not a thing. I know they're ranked, and undefeated, but that's it. Here's what I do know: starting this weekend, their next four opponents are Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. A far cry from their first five games of Murray State, Toledo, Indiana, Arkansas State, and Vandy. Who knows, maybe we'll be surprised.
The bad news for Georgia is I think I might be next on their list of folks to call if they lose anymore running backs or receivers. They have been absolutely decimated by injuries thus far and it makes you wonder how much longer they can hold on. Good news is they are through the meat of their schedule, save for that showdown with Florida in a few weeks. After the LSU game, I mentioned for the Bulldogs to watch out as the Tennessee game was a text book trap game. Hell, now after THAT game I'm saying the same thing about this one. I'll reiterate, I don't know near enough about Mizzou to call this an upset, but I'm going to give it a very high upset alert. And just because I'm picking scores, I'll go with this...
Georgia - 33
Missouri - 31
Oregon at Washington:
I admittedly wasn't able to see as much of the Washington/Stanford game as I would have liked, but I've still got a hard time picking this upset. My esteemed partner on the podcast seems to think there's a high probability here. Washington has this going for them: a) they're battle tested, b) they've got a VERY stingy defense, and c) they're playing with tremendous confidence...oh yeah, and the game is in Seattle. It certainly has the making for an upset - even Stewart Mandel seems to think so.
At the end of the day, my take on Oregon is I still think they have the fire power to pull this one out. I'll call it a closer-than-normal-Oregon game, but I have a hard time believing Washington is going to knock off these guys, but they will keep them below their average.
Oregon - 34
Washington - 28
Kind Shave Oil Player of the Week:
This is a new segment we've started including in our podcasts and I'm going to include here as well. Kind Shave Oil, the UNofficial sponsor of Wisdom Of the Wannabes and Sports Writer Wannabe, is a new product that aims to revolutionize the way you shave. I'll tell you folks - I was skeptical when I first heard of it and tried, but I can tell you, it's like nothing else out there. I won't spoil the whole thing for you, you see for yourself on their website at kindshaveoil.com, or follow them on facebook at facebook.com/kindshaveoil.
OK, enough of that...now on to the Kind Shave Oil Player of the week. And ironically, this inaugural week we're going with 2 players.
Lache Seastrunk, RB for Baylor
Bryce Petty, QB for Baylor
Let me just give you a couple of notes here because it's all I'll need to deliver the point that these guys are the shiz-nit.
Lache Seastrunk is the leading rusher in the Big 12 with 589 yards, and an 11-yard per carry average.....wait for it.....wait for it.....he's had 2 carries COMBINED in the second half of their first four games. Two carries. Unreal.
Bryce Petty 1348 yards, 10 touchdowns and a QB rating of 229.6. His efficiency is light years ahead of second place in the league (David Ash...insert joke here).
We'll see how this holds up as they play their first road game of the year this weekend.
NFL Notes:
The last time we had an election in 2012, Congress' approval rating was at 18% or thereabouts (give or take). During that election, the re-election rate was over 90%. Now, Congress' approval rating appears to be somewhere around 5-ish%. I certainly hope that means we can expect that re-election rate to plummet. If it doesn't, I'm throwing in the towel on the people in this country having a f'ng clue, or f'ng caring in the least bit.
Texas vs. Oklahoma:
Don't worry, I ain't picking this upset as much as I'd love to see it. I will say this, the one, tiny, minuscule chance Texas has of pulling the upset is to keep it close up to the last 10 minutes of the game and just hope/wait for that one play or bounce of the ball that turns the tide. A missed field goal; tipped pass leading to INT; blocked punt; whatever. Those things have a tendency to happen in games like this.
In all seriousness though, this OU team is certainly NOT the as strong as past Sooner teams, but that doesn't mean they still aren't better than Texas. Even with the loss of senior linebacker Nelson, they've still got a strong D that will no doubt give Case and company fits. If I'm OU I'm putting 9 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and 7 guys within 5. I'll give Case 15-25 yard pass options all day long because we all know he can't make the throws, and the Sooner Dbacks are athletic enough to make some plays. If Texas turns the ball over two or more times, it's over. Big time.
Offensively, however, the Sooners are more of a question mark. The bad news is saying the Texas D is a question mark would be a complement at this point. Do they appear to be getting better? It would seem so, but not where they should be. Again, if I'm OU, I'm running Bell around the end on zone reads in 10 of my first 12 plays - I will force the subject, even if it means I punt on my first couple of possessions - this OU running game has the ability to simply wear Texas down.
As always, this game comes down to emotion and heart and we all know who comes into this game with more of it, more times than not. I have absolutely no reason to believe this year is any different other than this is Mack's last hooray (unofficially). I would love to see him take the "fuck it, I'm coming guns a blazin'" approach, but I don't see it. And let's not forget the elephant in the room that has been teased and dangled in front of Texas fans all season: Tyrone Swoopes. This is one area that makes you wonder if Mack has been lying to us, or simply unsure of himself (little of both I think). My thought is this - you have NOTHING to lose. Nothing. Why not pull his redshirt and let him play. I mean, one thing most of us can agree on is that there is very little doubt that Case IS NOT the guy. I heard it put best this morning on the radio: Mack's handling of Swoopes at this point is like this. If you're at home and you've got terminal cancer, but you just got a brand new hot rod of a car - are you going to let it sit in the garage for your wife's new husband to drive after you're gone, or are you going to take it out and get everything you can out of it? Well said. And I agree.
Oklahoma - 32
Texas - 17
Florida at LSU:
Florida seems to be the only team left in the conference this year playing your typical "SEC-style football" with a solid defense and efficient, but not flashy offense. Scratch that, their defense is GREAT as most Gator defenses are. And with Tyler Murphy taking over for the injured Driskel, the offense has limited turnovers and improved completion percentages. In other words, become more efficient with less mistakes. We've seen the Tigers in a shoot out this year, but they certainly have not faced a defense near as good as this Gator unit which should be interesting.
Give Mettenberger a lot of credit though, this kid is balling - having already thrown for 15 touchdowns compared to 12 all of last year. That's a huge improvement, especially given who they play. I'll be very interested to see how he handles the test this weekend. On the flip side, another element that Murphy brings is his ability to make plays with his feet and extend a series. This can, and will be, a difference maker in my opinion. One thing that stood out to me in the LSU/Georgia game was how often the LSU secondary was blatantly out of position. There were 3 Georgia TD passes where there wasn't a defender within 7 yards of the receiver, and as he trotted into the end zone you could see the LSU defensive backs pointing at each other. I have faith they'll continue to shore this up throughout the year, but Murphy will make them pay. He's no Aaron Murray, but he's a smart player who limits risks. I'm going AGAINST my prediction in Thursday night's pod cast and taking the Gators here in what I guess is technically an upset in Death Valley.
Florida - 35
LSU - 34
Baylor at Kansas State:
Rrriiiiight. The only upset I see here is Kstate breaking the 70-points-per-game trend the Bears are on. Baylor by 35.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss:
After the last two weeks, this game simply has very little interest for me and others. However, I will say, if Ole Miss is looking for an opponent to face that helps them get their offense back on track (22 points total in last 2 weeks...which were losses), the Aggies are a damn good defense to be facing. The problem is you also have to face their offense. If the Rebels are able to regroup offensively and come out sharp and limit mistakes/turnovers, they can make this a decent game (decent..not great). At the end of the day though, I have yet to see someone shut down the Aggie offense (hell, even just contain them!!!). I don't see this being too close heading into the last 12 minutes.
Aggies - 44
Ole Miss - 30
Missouri at Georgia:
In the interest of full disclosure I literally know NOTHING about Missouri. Not a thing. I know they're ranked, and undefeated, but that's it. Here's what I do know: starting this weekend, their next four opponents are Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. A far cry from their first five games of Murray State, Toledo, Indiana, Arkansas State, and Vandy. Who knows, maybe we'll be surprised.
The bad news for Georgia is I think I might be next on their list of folks to call if they lose anymore running backs or receivers. They have been absolutely decimated by injuries thus far and it makes you wonder how much longer they can hold on. Good news is they are through the meat of their schedule, save for that showdown with Florida in a few weeks. After the LSU game, I mentioned for the Bulldogs to watch out as the Tennessee game was a text book trap game. Hell, now after THAT game I'm saying the same thing about this one. I'll reiterate, I don't know near enough about Mizzou to call this an upset, but I'm going to give it a very high upset alert. And just because I'm picking scores, I'll go with this...
Georgia - 33
Missouri - 31
Oregon at Washington:
I admittedly wasn't able to see as much of the Washington/Stanford game as I would have liked, but I've still got a hard time picking this upset. My esteemed partner on the podcast seems to think there's a high probability here. Washington has this going for them: a) they're battle tested, b) they've got a VERY stingy defense, and c) they're playing with tremendous confidence...oh yeah, and the game is in Seattle. It certainly has the making for an upset - even Stewart Mandel seems to think so.
At the end of the day, my take on Oregon is I still think they have the fire power to pull this one out. I'll call it a closer-than-normal-Oregon game, but I have a hard time believing Washington is going to knock off these guys, but they will keep them below their average.
Oregon - 34
Washington - 28
Kind Shave Oil Player of the Week:
This is a new segment we've started including in our podcasts and I'm going to include here as well. Kind Shave Oil, the UNofficial sponsor of Wisdom Of the Wannabes and Sports Writer Wannabe, is a new product that aims to revolutionize the way you shave. I'll tell you folks - I was skeptical when I first heard of it and tried, but I can tell you, it's like nothing else out there. I won't spoil the whole thing for you, you see for yourself on their website at kindshaveoil.com, or follow them on facebook at facebook.com/kindshaveoil.
OK, enough of that...now on to the Kind Shave Oil Player of the week. And ironically, this inaugural week we're going with 2 players.
Lache Seastrunk, RB for Baylor
Bryce Petty, QB for Baylor
Let me just give you a couple of notes here because it's all I'll need to deliver the point that these guys are the shiz-nit.
Lache Seastrunk is the leading rusher in the Big 12 with 589 yards, and an 11-yard per carry average.....wait for it.....wait for it.....he's had 2 carries COMBINED in the second half of their first four games. Two carries. Unreal.
Bryce Petty 1348 yards, 10 touchdowns and a QB rating of 229.6. His efficiency is light years ahead of second place in the league (David Ash...insert joke here).
We'll see how this holds up as they play their first road game of the year this weekend.
NFL Notes:
- 37-year old Peyton Manning may just have his fifth MVP sewed up before the halfway point of the season. Wow.
- Hey Cowboy fans, as you are dogging Romo (and I get it, I really do), let me remind you that had it not been for Romo's performance, Denver would have beaten you by 35+ points. I'm just saying....make a stop.
- 0-6 Giants!!?? What in the hell happened in New York?
- 5-0 Chiefs!!?? What in the hell happened in Kansas City?
- Tough break for the Falcons - horrible losses early on (that were very surprising), and now Julio Jones is gone for the year. That's a tough break for a team that made some tweaks in the offseason solely to make a championship run.
- One more thing Cowboys fans - You could go 7-9 and you will still win the division. I'm just saying....
- Great "this will tell us a lot" kind of game when the Saints travel to Foxboro to take on the "I think they're pretty good" Patriots. 2 things I'm looking for in this game: 1) How good is New England, REALLY? And 2) What will the Saints look like playing against a veteran team led by a veteran (and really good) QB, on the road in what may be the closest thing to a "playoff like atmosphere" as we've seen this year? The biggest surprise for me is the Saints' defense - Rob Ryan really has these guys playing well, AND physical. Not to sound like a homer, but the addition of Kenny Vacarro in the secondary has payed dividends, both in physical play and pass defense. Whereas the only concern is the Saints taking their foot off the gas a little given the division up to this point, I do see them making a statement here in a big road win. Too much attrition in New England.
- Sunday Night: Washington at Dallas. Win this one Cowboys, and you're going to have to try to lose this division. I'm dead serious.
- This just in: Andrew Luck is going to have a very nice career in this league. Very nice indeed. He just looks like one of those players who's going to be around for Peyton-esque many years.
- Eli Manning - STOP THROWING PICKS!!! My word.
- I think we've seen the end of the Greg Schiano experiment in Tampa Bay. I just have a feeling...
The last time we had an election in 2012, Congress' approval rating was at 18% or thereabouts (give or take). During that election, the re-election rate was over 90%. Now, Congress' approval rating appears to be somewhere around 5-ish%. I certainly hope that means we can expect that re-election rate to plummet. If it doesn't, I'm throwing in the towel on the people in this country having a f'ng clue, or f'ng caring in the least bit.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 3:53 PM
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