Friday, October 17, 2008

Bring On the Tigers

Weren't we just here talking about a huge game for the Horns with the Game Day crew on hand? More on this below, but the big unknown is whether or not these Horns spent the week reading the press clippings and slapping themselves on the backs - or if they were forgetting about OU and focusing their attention on Missouri. I'm not sure, but we will most certainly find out. Let's do this thing...

Missouri at Texas:
And just like that we're right in the midst of another big game – we Horns fans may want to get comfortable with it because we'll likely be singing this tune for the rest of the year. And yes, I know, I was hoping Mizzou would be undefeated too, but just because they're not doesn't mean this game isn't huge. This is going to be a big motivation game for the Tigers for a few reasons: First, they haven't beaten Texas in...well ever in the Big 12. Second, a win in Austin will catapult them right back into contention (and Chase Daniel in the heisman race). And third, speaking of Daniel, he would love nothing more than to beat the team that passed on him in favor of Colt. Yes my friends, there's no shortage of motivation for the Tigers of Missouri this weekend.

Honestly, I would be much more worried about this game had we not just come off of that great win over the Sooners. Frankly, Missouri doesn't have anything that we haven't already seen this year and the confidence on the defensive side of the ball could make for a long night of work for the Tigers. I'm not quite sure what they are going to do to stop this Texas offense either. The Tigers gave up over 420 yards in total offense to Okie State – with a pretty darn equal yardage on the ground and through the air. If I'm the defensive coaching staff for Mizzou I'm racking my brain on how I'm going to stop Colt and company. And with the emergence of Obgannaya as the clear number one back, they'll be putting in some overtime this week.

My biggest concern is an obvious one – will Texas come in overconfident after the huge win followed by the huge media coverage? I would honestly be surprised to see this Texas team have a let down given the focus and toughness they've shown this season – I've talked about it before, but it just seems like a different team. And given the way that they played from behind the entire game last week, it's going to be hard to rattle this bunch. But, even good, focused, and tough teams are capable of getting beat from time to time – if we've learned anything over this year it's that just about any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday. And that is really magnified when the visiting team is as good as Missouri is.

At the end of the day, other than sheer pessimism, I have no reason to believe that this Texas team won't continue their methodical march they've shown over the past 6 weeks. If this were 3 or 4 weeks later in the year I would really be worried about fatigue...but it's not and I'll cross that bridge in 3 or 4 weeks. I think Colt continues his damn-near flawless play and shreds this Missouri defense while Orakpo, Babino and Kindle will terrorize this Missouri offense. I say it's a close, hard-fought game for about 2 or 3 quarters and then the Horns blow it open with some big plays late in the game. I still say a loss is looming, but just not this week.

Texas – 44
Missouri - 24

Enough!
You all know how strongly I feel about early-season polls and the endless discussion about which team is better based on opponents, margin of victories, etc., etc. If you read Stewart Mandel's mail bag column this week you'll see I'm not the only one. Check out the first "page" of his musings - you think he's a bit irked? Seriously, CFB fans really need to get a grip - I'll say it again, for the most part, these polls are just "round about" rankings. At this point in the year, if you're anywhere in the top 5, you're in a good position. Now, if we only had a game or two left that would be another story, but we've got 6. That's an eternity. Check it out...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/10/15/cfb.mailbag/index.html 

Key Match Ups and Upset Alerts:
  • LSU at S. Carolina – Like a lot of other fans, etc. I was quick to anoint the LSU Tigers as yet another reloaded contender in the SEC. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. The Tigers clearly have some issues with consistency on both sides of the ball – don't get me wrong, they still have tons of talent (remember all of those highly-ranked recruiting classes over the last few years?), but they just lack experience. With games remaining against Georgia and Alabama after this one they'll certainly have their chances to grow, but look for this to be a “down” year for the Tigers. I think this is more of a “scare” game than an upset, but it's on the radar.
  • Ohio State at Michigan State – If you go by the rankings a MSU victory wouldn't be a major upset as there are about 4-6 spots separating these guys. BUT, if you go by expectations it would be an upset. Look for the Spartans to knock off the Buckeyes in East Lansing this weekend. Pryor and company are starting to click a bit more, but Jevon Ringer will give the OSU defense fits. And the Buckeyes had better figure out how to put up better offensive numbers than they have recently.
  • Texas Tech at Texas A&M – Do I think the aggies will win this? No, but if there are two games that the aggies will get up for, no matter how good/bad they are, it's this one and the Texas game. Look for the aggies to come out with a big surge early in this game, but I just can't see them hanging with Tech for 4 quarters. Much like last week – closer than it should be, confirming for certain that this “new look” defense for the Red Raiders is, well....the same defense we've seen for the past few years. More on the Tech game here:  http://fannation.com/blogs/post/274618
  • Baylor at Oklahoma State - Be careful Oklahoma State....last week Mizzou was clearly looking ahead to the match up with Texas and blew a home game (remember?). Don't get caught in that same trap – good news is it's Baylor.
  • OU vs. Kansas – NO, this is not an upset special, but will be interesting to see how the Sooners defense looks without their star linebacker who's out for the year after tearing his ACL in the Texas game. Kansas (like the entire conference) has few issues moving the ball around the field and Mangino being the great offensive coach he is will most certainly be studying that Texas game film to find those kinks. Either way, OU won't lose 2 straight – not a chance.
  • Michigan at Penn State - A couple of things for you. First, Penn State hasn't beaten Michigan in I think 12 years. Second, Michigan has absolutely nothing to lose and Penn State has absolutely everything to lose in this one. The curse is broken on Saturday afternoon in what will be Not-So-Happy Valley for the Wolverines. Penn State in a blow out victory.
  • Brown at Princeton - In an effort to diversify my coverage (and appease my yankee uncle), I'll start taking a sneak peak at the excitement that is the Ivy League. This weekend's match up pits the league's top two teams in a game that's sure to be fierce. Brown is coming off a disappointing loss to the juggernaut that is Holy Cross, but as they enter conference play, look for the Bears (who amongst you knew that was their mascot?) to right the ship with their high-flying attack. Dougherty, the Bears QB, is coming off of a monstrous game where he passed for 526 yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort. Conversely you've got the Princeton Tigers who have been gobbling up some good yardage on the ground this year. Look for a battle in this one with both teams putting up some big yardage numbers, but a fairly low-scoring affair. Since both teams are 1-0 in conference and 2-2 overall, this game will give one of these guys the upper hand. I'm going with Brown in a nail biter - 24-23. Meanwhile, their ongoing battle will continue to see which school's students will be running the world in 15 years. Good luck getting a job class of '09. 
  • Yale at Fordham - Yale is having a better year. Fordham sucks. I'll go with W's alma mater and go with the Bulldogs of Yale (bet you didn't know that one either) in a blowout: 37-14.
MID-SEASON REPORT:
So here we are, we've made it to the halfway point of the season. I thought this would be a good opportunity to take stock in what the national picture looks like and get a sense of the lay of the land. Remember folks, we've got a loooong way to go still, but we certainly have a good idea of what kinds of teams and players we're dealing with here.

Heisman Hopefuls (in no particular order):
Colt McCoy – He's certainly been having a fantastic year, but I honestly didn't think of him as a true contender here for a couple of reasons. First, he just didn't “look” like a heisman contender. If you look at a Tim Tebow or a Chase Daniel, they just look like big, athletic college superstars. Colt...not so much. But, consider this – when Tebow won it last year he completed 66% of his passes for the year (granted, he also racked up a ton of rushing yards and TDs); when Troy Smith won it the previous year he completed 65% of his passes. Colt? 80% - that's nuts. In all fairness we still have a long way to go this year, but assuming they go 5-1 down the stretch and he ends up with a 70+ completion percentage it's going to be damn hard to keep him out of New York.

Sam Bradford – I know he lost the game (or I should say, THEY lost the game), but this guy is for real. He's showing no signs of any kind of sophomore slump this year and his 5 TD passes last week were quite impressive. Yes, he had 2 picks, but both were meaningless (despite what this week's SI article says about them, calling them “crucial” - they weren't at all crucial). OU's defense is going to suffer with the loss of Reynolds, their defensive leader, but as long as this guy is at the helm offensively, they'll likely win out. I have no reason to believe that Bradford will regress this year and barring injury, I've got him as a shoe-in for New York.

Chase Daniel – I know, I know, the heisman trophy is a national award, not a Big 12 award, but I dare any of you to argue against any of these. Yes, he's coming off of a pretty bad game by his standards, especially considering he threw 3 picks and they lost...at home. But, there's more than enough time for Daniel to get his name right back in the mix – and if they can go into Austin this weekend and knock off the Horns he will be hard to displace from the list of top 5 candidates. He's still a hugely talented QB and has a lot of good miles left in him – don't mail it in on Daniel just yet...

Javon Ringer – I've actually got to see him play just a little bit in early games. He's most definitely a true running back with ridiculous skills and I would even put him as one of the best backs in the nation. But, I read this stat earlier this week – he's averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 32 carries a game. That is a TON of carries and I just don't see them keeping up that pace without injury and/or fatigue setting in. If the Spartans can find a way to take the load off of him and get a passing game going it should do him wonders. HUGE game against Ohio State this weekend that could help him to solidify his spot amongst the nation's best.

Tim Tebow – That impressive win over LSU propelled him right back into the mix here. Hell, he's the reigning winner so that has to count for something. If this team is able to keep this rhythm going for the second half of the year there's no reason at all that he can't be a back-to-back winner.

Michael Crabtree – He is, still, the best receiver in the country. If he's not in New York this year it will be a travesty. Add this guy to any one of these teams: USC, Texas, Oklahoma or Florida and I would guarantee you that team would be playing for the title – he's that good.

Daryll Clark – He's got 2 weeks coming up here (against Michigan and against OSU) where he can really propel himself up the charts so to speak. He's been very, VERY good on a very good offensive team. Penn State hasn't gotten quite as much love as the Big 12 carousel this year thus far, but that will change with these 2 big games.

Who Are the True Contenders?
I think the last couple of years (including this year) have proven that parity is reigning in college football. Even the stranglehold that the SEC has seemingly held over the rest of the country appears to be loosening thanks in large part to the resurgence of the Big 12 this year. With that, it's even harder to attempt to identify any clear-cut favorites to take the crystal football this year...but hell, I'll give it a shot – I'm not doing anything else sitting here at 36,000 feet (yes, thank you for chiming in Captain, I had no idea what Palm Springs looked like from this altitude - now I can die in peace).

Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Georgia, Missouri – What do these teams have in common? They were smart enough to lose their games early. The downside is should they lose another one that may pretty much seal their fate – although Georgia, Mizzou and Florida could conceivably lose another game and still win their respective conferences, but even then it would be a long shot and one where they would need to rely on a lot of other dominoes to fall. More on Georgia below....

Texas, Alabama, Penn State – These teams have taken care of their business up until now and essentially will control their own destiny. Of these Texas certainly has the toughest schedule and should they win out (won't happen), they will most definitely play for the title. With parity like this, if you're going to lose, lose early. The above teams got that memo.

Who Are the Pretenders?
These are the guys who may be highly ranked or touted now, but whom I'm picking to crumble a bit as we head into the home stretch.

Texas Tech – I really hesitate to include these guys here simply because I know what they are capable of doing on any and every given week. BUT, as I mentioned above, it's clear now that the new and improved defense was more marketing than reality. They still have some issues on that side of the ball and will run into some serious issues when they face the power offenses of the Big 12 – and they get a big run of them in a row starting NEXT weekend: at Kansas, Texas at home, Okie State at home, by week and then a trip to Norman. No chance they come out of that unscathed – literally no chance.

Ohio State – Is it me or do they just not look like a contender? Even if these guys happen to stumble through the rest of the year and get by without a second loss, it will be tough for them to get the nod to play in Miami – a lot of teams would need to lose a couple of games. I do believe in Pryor, but just not this year.

Georgia – So I know I had these guys listed as a “true contender” above, but because it's my blog and I make the rules I'm giving them a half point in each area. In addition to the injuries that continue to decimate this team (lost another O-lineman starter to injury this past week), the one solid opponent they've played absolutely stomped their faces into the dirt...in their own home. And now they get rewarded with a home game against Vandy (should win), trip to Baton Rouge, Cocktail Party with Florida, trip to Kentucky and a trip to Auburn. That's a pretty tough stretch. I don't see them beating Florida and winning that game in Baton Rouge (and I'm assuming it's a night game) will be a very tough draw.

Oklahoma State – They travel to Austin, Lubbock, Boulder and get the Sooners at home. Much like those Longhorns, that's a tough stretch. Look for them to win one of those they probably shouldn't (against Texas or Texas Tech) and lose one they probably shouldn't (at Boulder). This is a huge opportunity for Gundy to take a big step with this program, but I see them faltering at least a couple/few times.

Whoever Wins the ACC and Big East – No chance any of these guys are competing for the big game.

Team to Make the Biggest Surge Going Forward – North Carolina. ALL of their remaining games are winnable and their only loss thus far was to a schizophrenic Virginia Tech team. They have proven they can come back from big deficits and pull out a victory (wins against Miami and Notre Dame). Butch Davis has that program going in the right direction. There won't be a lot of talk about this team no matter what they do, but keep an eye on the college scoreboards over the next few weeks – you'll see the Tarheels continue to quietly win those games.

Team to Make the Biggest Drop Going Forward – I want to say Vanderbilt, but given their upset loss last weekend to Mississippi State (which by the way you heard here first...even giving you the point differential), can't really pick them now. Sooo, I'm going with Kansas. They still face a brutal schedule and their near miss against Iowa State was pretty telling. They kick this gauntlet off this weekend in Norman against what's sure to be a pissed off Oklahoma team.

Greg Davis:
I thought I should end this week's post on this note.

It's no secret that this guy has taken a tremendous amount of heat (yes, I know, that's an understatement) over the last few years, much of it from yours truly. But, what he's been able to do with this offense this year has been quite remarkable. I don't know if this stems from that change of attitude leading up to last year's Holiday Bowl or what, but whatever it may be, the game plans have been great. I was most impressed with the 4 receiver set he unveiled last week against Oklahoma. Historically, as we all know, our offense has come out tight and conservative in big games (especially the Tx/OU game), but this year was a different story entirely.

Additionally, Texas is still ranked somewhere in the top 2 or 3 in total offense and they've been in the top 10 or 15 consistently over the years. I just felt it was time to get this guy some props because he deserves it.

With that said, PLEASE either find a better, more “strategic” way to use John Chiles or do one of these two things: a) keep him on the bench until/unless Colt gets hurt, or b) move his ass to receiver. Bringing him in for one series, lining him up at a back and pitching him the ball isn't very innovative. I'll say it again, pretend he's Ramonce Taylor and do what you did with him.

OK, back to the praise – kudos Davis. You're having one hell of a year.

Alright gang, good luck. We've got the little one's birthday party this weekend so I'll be out and about on Saturday, but I'm hoping to try and make it down to game day for a little bit (yea right). If you make it, enjoy it - it's always fun when they come and a good way to get really pumped about the game. Let's hope we get a different outcome from the last time they were here (remember....that home loss to eventual runner ups Ohio State). I'll be back for a recap of the weekend on Monday morning. Enjoy the games.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Best. Game. Ever.

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been a better Tx/OU game in the last 20 years - that was something else. And let me tell you something - the Sooners ain't going anywhere. That team is damn good.....there just weren't as good as the Horns on that Saturday. There was a period of about 18 hours following that game where I couldn't figure out how in the world Texas won. But they did.

Texas' ability to whether the storm time after time was pretty amazing. I don't know about you, but I found myself uttering these words on at least 3 separate occasions, "OK, they have to come back and respond with a score here. They HAVE to." And guess what, they did every single time - the first time being Shipley's kickoff return. This was truly a game of fighting and clawing and making plays when you absolutely need to make them - especially on defense. And Colt McCoy, what can you say? He's not as flashy as a lot of other players, but he makes plays when they need them most. His ability to thread the needle and make some tough throws time and time again was really spectacular. My one criticism of Colt in this game is the fact that he seemed unwilling to throw the ball away - there were 2 plays in particular where he took a couple of sacks when there was no reason at all to let that happen. He can get around the end playing UTEP, Rice, etc., but not against the speed of OU. But hell, for the most part, he was great. And Jordan Shipley - what can you say? He and Cosby were spectacular, stepping up and playing like seasoned veterans. Those two guys really carried that team offensively.

All in all, a great, GREAT day for the Horns.....now we have to forget about it. At this point, it never happened. If you'll remember, we've got a few other big games coming up, starting this Saturday against a (likely) pissed off Missouri team. And then after that, and then again after that. Point is this my friends - whereas in past years this win would almost guarantee you a shot at the conference title if you just stayed the course, but not this year. I can say this with almost 100% certainty - Texas will not get through this gauntlet of a schedule unscathed. I see the Tech game as the most likely opportunity for a loss, but then again this Tech team is absolutely no different than any others we've seen in the past (more on this below) so who knows. Point is this friends - the time for celebrating this victory is over.

One little note here - my early hunch is that Texas buries Missouri next weekend, but it's just a hunch. OK, enough of that until later this week....

What Else We Learned From This Weekend:
  • Don't give me this "they haven't played anyone yet" - Penn State is a very good team and I honestly see them blowing through the Big 10.
  • One more thing on the Tx/OU game - how bad was that officiating? There were some horrible calls all over the field and against both teams (roughing the passer calls, running into the punter call, etc., etc. - there were numerous others). Very bad night for the Big 12 officials.
  • Man, how wrong was I about LSU? These guys really showed how much they miss that killer defense (and offense) they had the past 2 years. They still get Bama and Georgia too - they're not terrible, but considering where they've been the last few years, it certainly will be a "down" year.
  • I'm serious Texas fans - the number 1 ranking means nothing. I've already heard too much from some of you about how "awesome" this is. Don't get caught up in this poll mess too much - after all, Texas is already the 4th different number one team we've seen this year (which just further supports my theory on polls).
  • So is the entire town of Ann Arbor on suicide watch? I would think so. Toledo? Really?
  • How good was Sam Bradford on Saturday? Even with the loss, that guy is something else. That guy still has to be right in the thick of the heisman hunt. Those 2 picks he threw were meaningless.
  • My Fine Five (5 teams who I believe have the best realistic shot at playing for the title): Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Penn State and now I gotta throw Florida in there. Alabama has just a few questions about offense and consistency; Texas Tech has had the luxury of climbing the ladder as others have fallen; we'll know more about Mizzou on Sunday.
NFL Notes:
  • Don't look now Cowboys' fans, but oblivion is coming around the bend....I can't wait to watch TO implode over the next few weeks.
  • Good Lord the Giants looked bad tonight. Very bad. I'm not sure who that home team was that came out, but it sure wasn't the same Browns team we've been watching.
  • Barring some barrage of negotiations overnight/tomorrow morning looks like the trading deadline will pass very quietly.
  • Cowboys lose, Giants lose, and Skins lose - looks like that NFC East quickly came back down to earth this weekend.
  • Could we see the slow birth of the next great QB in Matt Ryan? What this guy is doing with this team is remarkable. And Michael Turner is getting better and better each week.
That's what I got guys - on the road this week so have to keep this one short, but I'll be back later this week with a preview of next weekend's games. Have a good week.