Calm Before the Storm
Good news, bad news college fans. Not a ton of exciting (at least on paper) games on slate this weekend, but the good news we dive into the thick of conference play for most teams next weekend. Let's call it the last weekend of pre-season because at the end of the day, no matter what you did in your 4 non-conference games, you can still conceivably win your conference. We all know how it usually plays out, but it is possible. Here's how slow the weekend is - the prime-time game is Iowa at Penn State. Riveting.
Meanwhile, some pretty big games for a number of teams in the big leagues. Patriots, anyone? Tough one against the visiting Falcons this weekend. Shall we...
Will the disturbing trend continue? That trend being a top 5 team going down. In case you haven't been paying attention, we've seen it in each weekend thus far. Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, USC - who's next? My money is on Ole Miss on Thursday night as they visit South Carolina. If I'm not mistaken, the Gamecocks sucker-punched the Rebels last year shortly after Ole Miss had shocked then number one Florida. Logic would say that they won't let that happen two consecutive years, but they are visiting Columbia so anything could happen. Don't rule out Iowa doing the same thing and knocking off Penn State for a second consecutive year. Those are my two prime candidates to continue the disturbing trend. We shall see...
Another one bites the dust. Could that be the tune in Clemson, South Carolina at about 6:30ish ET? TCU is 2-0 and have even beaten another ACC team (Virginia) on the road in week one. Unfortunately, Clemson is much better than the Cavs. Much better. They have a pretty balanced attack with a very strong run game - and Spiller will be back and healthy this weekend. TCU is no slouch running the ball either - they've had 200+ yards rushing in both of their games thus far, that's pretty damn good. I heard that the flu bug may have hit the Clemson team which could certainly play a big role, depending on how they can curb this. The Tigers need to protect the ball and BOTH teams need to defend the rush better - although they held BC to 55 yards last week, but no one has been able to truly capture how piss-poor this Boston College team is. I'm taking the home team, thereby ending the mid-tier conference debate for the year. Sorry Boise State, not going to happen with that schedule.
Clemson - 30
TCU - 21
Redemption for the Ducks? Could be. Sounds like Phil Knight is unveiling yet another uniform combo, evidently a throw back to the good old days. OK, great, are you going to get a new offensive line too? Seriously, the beat down that the Ducks took from the Broncos from Idaho is still fresh in our minds, but don't forget that Oregon has gone on to beat Purdue and Utah - the Utes had a 16-game win streak at the time of the game. With a win here against the Pac 10 favorites, the Ducks can propel themselves back into the thick of the top 25 as well as on the watch list for the Pac 10 title.
It's not going to be easy though. If you haven't seen Jahvid Best yet this year, check him out here. He's by and far the best back in college football right now. Much like Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson before him, he's bringing a lot of attention to the Cal skill player position. He'll present some problems for Oregon. This game begins a pretty tough run for the Bears - after this trip to Eugene they get USC at home, and then travel to UCLA (who's undefeated mind you). That's a tough run and if they can get through that run at 2-1 or 3-0, they should have a strong hold on the Pac 10. I'm taking Cal here as I think they are a more complete team and can shorten the game with their running attack. They'll no doubt have a big test against a Ducks crowd looking to prove that the Boise State loss (and subsequent puppet show that ensued) was an anomaly.
California - 33
Oregon - 24
The safest bet in college football right now seems to be to bet against the Horns in the first half and bet on them in the second half. I have no reason to suspect this will change....until I actually see it change. Here's a question - if Colt played outstanding all game last weekend, would we have ever heard about the flu bug? Same goes for Florida players. I hate that when it's only brought up after the fact - "well, we had some guys battling the flu". Really? Then get them out of the f'ng game, especially when they're pitching INTs left and right. But I digress..
Fozzy Whitacker is expected back this week, thereby perpetuating our schizophrenic running game. Look, we like what we've seen from Newton and he's been pretty consistent so let's please use him like 20 times a game. I did hear Mack allude to them wanting to focus on fewer back in the next game - hallelujah!! I like Fozzy. I like Vondrell. I like Newton - I just don't want to see each of them get 7-9 carries a game. Regardless, they could play 11 backs in this game and they'll still probably smother the Miners from El Paso. As usual, this is going to be a beat down by our defense. UTEP ranks quite low in offensive output and that does not bode well for a defense that's looking pretty damn strong - we've come to expect this from Muschamp's bunch. They may give up yards, but they won't give up a lot of points.
For the fourth straight game, the same question lingers - which offense will show up? I'd like to see them distribute the ball a tad more. Buckner is getting more touches each week, but after he and Shipley the numbers drop off a bit more than I'd like to see personally. Colt has some big receivers in John Chiles and Malcolm Williams - let's see what these guys can do going deep. I thought we'd see more of this against Tech, but didn't happen. We'll see.
By the way, the line is Texas +36....take UTEP.
Texas - 40
UTEP - 9
My one guarantee for the weekend. Bet the over in the Houston/Tech game this weekend. Potts is number one in passing yards/game and Case Keenum is number 3. Houston also happens to be the top team in the nation in scoring. What in the world do the defensive coordinators say to their respective teams? "Uhh....go give it your all".
Here's my thought process for this game. I don't know how good Houston REALLY is because I never thought Oklahoma State was going to be as good as advertised. Nevertheless, they went into their house and won and that says something. I don't know how good Tech is because I think, as they often times do, they may have played above themselves just a bit against Texas. I know both QBs can amount of a lot of yards and points in those systems, but something's going to give and I think it may just be fun as hell to watch. After much thought I'm taking Houston because they've had an off week and this is prime "letdown" situation for Tech - this is their second consecutive road game (albeit in state) and they're coming off a closer-than-expected battle with Texas. I'll be rooting hard for the Red Raiders (as you all should Horns' fans), but I'm taking Houston. Barely.
Houston - 49
Texas Tech - 44
Looks like Tech fan disagrees..http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/450999
Another "Root Like Hell Horns' Fans" game occurs in Blacksburg, VA this weekend when "The U" visits the Hokies - nice little battle of 9 vs. 11 (if ranked games mean anything to you). As we've discussed in past sessions, Texas REALLY NEEDS for the Big 12 teams to keep winning. OU visits Miami next weekend and if they can knock off the Canes, that will bode quite well for the Texas strength of schedule. It's unfortunate that this isn't our prime time match up, but that's what you get for playing on the east coast.
This should certainly be a great battle. It's going to be quite a tough match up for these young Hurricanes - although they took care of the Seminoles on the road, that was an in-state game and we all know that traveling outside the state is a bigger load to carry. Although they have been uncharacteristically mediocre thus far this year, I do believe this will be a much tougher defense than Miami may have seen this year. I can't yet say that I have any doubts about Jacory Harris right now as he's performed very well against two tough opponents.
On the flip side, Virginia Tech's offense struggled quite a bit (at home) last week against a dangerous "unknown" of sorts in Nebraska. The Hokies managed less than 200 total offensive yards heading into the final quarter. Obviously the Huskers and Hurricanes have vastly different styles of offense, but that offensive impotence may really hurt the Hokies. Miami's speed in it's front seven, I think, will have the Virginia Tech offense's head spinning early on. Tyrod Taylor won't be able to scramble for 80 or something yards against this defensive speed.
Miami's Harris will likely be tested in his ability to take what the defense gives and not be afraid to throw the ball away and punt - don't put your defense in tough positions because you tried too hard to force something. This is what Virginia Tech does, they pound you and force you to take chances/mistakes that they capitalize on. And I imagine the Canes have been practicing special teams quite a bit more this week - another specialty of Beamer Ball. I've been more impressed with Miami thus far and last week was too much of an iffy performance for the Hokies. Miami keeps the dream alive.
Miami - 33
Virginia Tech - 20
Enough of this amateur sports fluff, let's take a look at The League....
What's on the minds of Patriots' fans? I wish I knew. It's not like things are bad for this team...at all, but this may be a bit of uncharted waters for them. Last year doesn't count because when Brady went down I think expectation went out the window. But this is definitely different - by all accounts, this team *should* be 0-2 right now and look more like a middle-of-the-pack team than anything else. But why are we so surprised? Sports is cyclical and dominance doesn't last. The best organizations put themselves in a position to contend each and every year and Patriots have done this better than most over the past decade. The Steelers, Eagles and Ravens also come to mind.
I do think this will be a relatively "down year" for the Pats, but consider this - they get like 5 or 6 first- or second-round picks in the next two years and they've got a VERY young defense now. When you have a proven coaching staff and a group of young, hungry defensive players, it's probably going to bode well for you. Couple that with all of those high-quality picks and you've got a bright, bright future in Foxboro. So settle down Pats' fans, you may not go 16-0 and win a super bowl this year, but you've still got Brady, Moss, Welker and about 17 running backs. But I'm still taking the Falcons.
Atlanta - 27
New England - 19
Nut crunching time for the Texans. Houston has a few weeks of some semi-patsies coming up and it's a good time to gain some ground in the division. They get the hapless Jags at home and I have no reason to believe they have anyone who can slow Andre Johnson down. I'm still waiting for Steve Slaton to take off and I'm not sure this is going to be his week (more on this below).
Houston isn't as bad as most of may think they are and Jacksonville is. Even if Slaton continues to struggle, Johnson won't.
Houston - 24
Jacksonville - 15
Fantasy Update. Well, I'm 2-0 so that's good. I've continued to tamper with my roster on a weekly basis - I'm not sure if this is a good or bad strategy, but as of right now (typing this sentence over lunch on Thursday), I'm holding on to three QBs with only one WR backup. I think I need to fix that. Here's the deal, I'm not quite ready yet to dump McNabb. Sounds like he's out again this week, but I need to put a stake in the ground and give it until X date. I'm still holding on to Edwards as I think he's playing pretty solid football right now and will likely start him this week against the Saints (Kolb put up like 330 yards against the Saints defense and he's not near as good as Trent).
Meanwhile, my RB situation is a bit desperate. I did go and pick up Sproles this week which I think is a good move as I don't see Tomlinson staying healthy on any sort of consistent basis. And if I can get 100 total yards and a TD from him, I'm happy. My first round pick, Slaton, is struggling to say the least this year. Averaging 2 yards a carry and has as many fumbles as he did all last year. I'm not giving up on him just yet, but could be another stake in the ground thing with him too. I think I'll go Sproles and Ray Rice as my backs this week, but I've also got Fred Jackson, the up-and-coming workhorse out of Buffalo who has gotten better as the season has progressed. Lynch should be coming back soon and I actually dumped him for Jackson so we'll see.
Is Fitzgerald ready for a big breakout game? Please? Yes? I can't not go with him...I just can't. I am, however, sitting Percy Harvin this week. Going to try out the new guy - the new guy being Mario Manningham....against the Bucs. I like my chances.
I think this could be the week Lions' fans (all 4 of you). Here's my Budweiser Lock of the weekend (I just made that up...I have no sponsors, but as much Bud as I drink I should). In my heart of hearts, I believe these teams both know what's coming. The Skins have to be nervous as hell - no one wants to be the team that Detroit breaks the streak on, but they haven't looked good...at all. Meanwhile, I think Schwartz will have this team motivated like crazy - he'll have them believing they're going to win this game.
Look for Kevin Smith to have a big game running the ball and I imagine we'll see a simplified offensive scheme for young Stafford - all together now, "TAKE WHAT THE DEFENSE GIVES YOU". And I'll imagine they'll give a lot. The Lions will have to keep close tabs on Haynesworth as he's more than capable of disrupting things - avoid him and you'll be fine. Yes, I know, easier said than done.
I'm going Detroit here because my gosh this city and team needs a lift.
Detroit - 24
Washington - 20
Non-Football Thoughts for the week...
I still haven't found anyone who can explain the FedEx cup golf "tournament". Look, Golf, I get it. I get that you want to create a playoff of sorts as it's exciting. How many folks could care less about a regular season, but will always tune in for playoffs? A lot. Couple of things on this: First, golf is defined by the majors. I know exactly when they are every year and I will watch them. Second, not only is this "playoff" completely contrived and mindless, but it also competes with football and golf will NEVER compete with football...ever. And finally, let me ask you this - do you think Tiger is REALLY happy about winning the FedEx cup, but not winning any majors? I seriously doubt it. History doesn't judge greatness in this game based on FedEx cup wins.
Did anyone happen to see Gadhafi doing his stand up show at the UN? It was classic. Nice credibility UN, seriously, that was a joke. I will go to my grave believing in my hear that Gadhafi has been dead for years and they just had a muppet made to represent him. Look at his face when he talks and moves and tell me I'm wrong...I'm not.
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend.
Meanwhile, some pretty big games for a number of teams in the big leagues. Patriots, anyone? Tough one against the visiting Falcons this weekend. Shall we...
Will the disturbing trend continue? That trend being a top 5 team going down. In case you haven't been paying attention, we've seen it in each weekend thus far. Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, USC - who's next? My money is on Ole Miss on Thursday night as they visit South Carolina. If I'm not mistaken, the Gamecocks sucker-punched the Rebels last year shortly after Ole Miss had shocked then number one Florida. Logic would say that they won't let that happen two consecutive years, but they are visiting Columbia so anything could happen. Don't rule out Iowa doing the same thing and knocking off Penn State for a second consecutive year. Those are my two prime candidates to continue the disturbing trend. We shall see...
Another one bites the dust. Could that be the tune in Clemson, South Carolina at about 6:30ish ET? TCU is 2-0 and have even beaten another ACC team (Virginia) on the road in week one. Unfortunately, Clemson is much better than the Cavs. Much better. They have a pretty balanced attack with a very strong run game - and Spiller will be back and healthy this weekend. TCU is no slouch running the ball either - they've had 200+ yards rushing in both of their games thus far, that's pretty damn good. I heard that the flu bug may have hit the Clemson team which could certainly play a big role, depending on how they can curb this. The Tigers need to protect the ball and BOTH teams need to defend the rush better - although they held BC to 55 yards last week, but no one has been able to truly capture how piss-poor this Boston College team is. I'm taking the home team, thereby ending the mid-tier conference debate for the year. Sorry Boise State, not going to happen with that schedule.
Clemson - 30
TCU - 21
Redemption for the Ducks? Could be. Sounds like Phil Knight is unveiling yet another uniform combo, evidently a throw back to the good old days. OK, great, are you going to get a new offensive line too? Seriously, the beat down that the Ducks took from the Broncos from Idaho is still fresh in our minds, but don't forget that Oregon has gone on to beat Purdue and Utah - the Utes had a 16-game win streak at the time of the game. With a win here against the Pac 10 favorites, the Ducks can propel themselves back into the thick of the top 25 as well as on the watch list for the Pac 10 title.
It's not going to be easy though. If you haven't seen Jahvid Best yet this year, check him out here. He's by and far the best back in college football right now. Much like Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson before him, he's bringing a lot of attention to the Cal skill player position. He'll present some problems for Oregon. This game begins a pretty tough run for the Bears - after this trip to Eugene they get USC at home, and then travel to UCLA (who's undefeated mind you). That's a tough run and if they can get through that run at 2-1 or 3-0, they should have a strong hold on the Pac 10. I'm taking Cal here as I think they are a more complete team and can shorten the game with their running attack. They'll no doubt have a big test against a Ducks crowd looking to prove that the Boise State loss (and subsequent puppet show that ensued) was an anomaly.
California - 33
Oregon - 24
The safest bet in college football right now seems to be to bet against the Horns in the first half and bet on them in the second half. I have no reason to suspect this will change....until I actually see it change. Here's a question - if Colt played outstanding all game last weekend, would we have ever heard about the flu bug? Same goes for Florida players. I hate that when it's only brought up after the fact - "well, we had some guys battling the flu". Really? Then get them out of the f'ng game, especially when they're pitching INTs left and right. But I digress..
Fozzy Whitacker is expected back this week, thereby perpetuating our schizophrenic running game. Look, we like what we've seen from Newton and he's been pretty consistent so let's please use him like 20 times a game. I did hear Mack allude to them wanting to focus on fewer back in the next game - hallelujah!! I like Fozzy. I like Vondrell. I like Newton - I just don't want to see each of them get 7-9 carries a game. Regardless, they could play 11 backs in this game and they'll still probably smother the Miners from El Paso. As usual, this is going to be a beat down by our defense. UTEP ranks quite low in offensive output and that does not bode well for a defense that's looking pretty damn strong - we've come to expect this from Muschamp's bunch. They may give up yards, but they won't give up a lot of points.
For the fourth straight game, the same question lingers - which offense will show up? I'd like to see them distribute the ball a tad more. Buckner is getting more touches each week, but after he and Shipley the numbers drop off a bit more than I'd like to see personally. Colt has some big receivers in John Chiles and Malcolm Williams - let's see what these guys can do going deep. I thought we'd see more of this against Tech, but didn't happen. We'll see.
By the way, the line is Texas +36....take UTEP.
Texas - 40
UTEP - 9
My one guarantee for the weekend. Bet the over in the Houston/Tech game this weekend. Potts is number one in passing yards/game and Case Keenum is number 3. Houston also happens to be the top team in the nation in scoring. What in the world do the defensive coordinators say to their respective teams? "Uhh....go give it your all".
Here's my thought process for this game. I don't know how good Houston REALLY is because I never thought Oklahoma State was going to be as good as advertised. Nevertheless, they went into their house and won and that says something. I don't know how good Tech is because I think, as they often times do, they may have played above themselves just a bit against Texas. I know both QBs can amount of a lot of yards and points in those systems, but something's going to give and I think it may just be fun as hell to watch. After much thought I'm taking Houston because they've had an off week and this is prime "letdown" situation for Tech - this is their second consecutive road game (albeit in state) and they're coming off a closer-than-expected battle with Texas. I'll be rooting hard for the Red Raiders (as you all should Horns' fans), but I'm taking Houston. Barely.
Houston - 49
Texas Tech - 44
Looks like Tech fan disagrees..http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/450999
Another "Root Like Hell Horns' Fans" game occurs in Blacksburg, VA this weekend when "The U" visits the Hokies - nice little battle of 9 vs. 11 (if ranked games mean anything to you). As we've discussed in past sessions, Texas REALLY NEEDS for the Big 12 teams to keep winning. OU visits Miami next weekend and if they can knock off the Canes, that will bode quite well for the Texas strength of schedule. It's unfortunate that this isn't our prime time match up, but that's what you get for playing on the east coast.
This should certainly be a great battle. It's going to be quite a tough match up for these young Hurricanes - although they took care of the Seminoles on the road, that was an in-state game and we all know that traveling outside the state is a bigger load to carry. Although they have been uncharacteristically mediocre thus far this year, I do believe this will be a much tougher defense than Miami may have seen this year. I can't yet say that I have any doubts about Jacory Harris right now as he's performed very well against two tough opponents.
On the flip side, Virginia Tech's offense struggled quite a bit (at home) last week against a dangerous "unknown" of sorts in Nebraska. The Hokies managed less than 200 total offensive yards heading into the final quarter. Obviously the Huskers and Hurricanes have vastly different styles of offense, but that offensive impotence may really hurt the Hokies. Miami's speed in it's front seven, I think, will have the Virginia Tech offense's head spinning early on. Tyrod Taylor won't be able to scramble for 80 or something yards against this defensive speed.
Miami's Harris will likely be tested in his ability to take what the defense gives and not be afraid to throw the ball away and punt - don't put your defense in tough positions because you tried too hard to force something. This is what Virginia Tech does, they pound you and force you to take chances/mistakes that they capitalize on. And I imagine the Canes have been practicing special teams quite a bit more this week - another specialty of Beamer Ball. I've been more impressed with Miami thus far and last week was too much of an iffy performance for the Hokies. Miami keeps the dream alive.
Miami - 33
Virginia Tech - 20
Enough of this amateur sports fluff, let's take a look at The League....
What's on the minds of Patriots' fans? I wish I knew. It's not like things are bad for this team...at all, but this may be a bit of uncharted waters for them. Last year doesn't count because when Brady went down I think expectation went out the window. But this is definitely different - by all accounts, this team *should* be 0-2 right now and look more like a middle-of-the-pack team than anything else. But why are we so surprised? Sports is cyclical and dominance doesn't last. The best organizations put themselves in a position to contend each and every year and Patriots have done this better than most over the past decade. The Steelers, Eagles and Ravens also come to mind.
I do think this will be a relatively "down year" for the Pats, but consider this - they get like 5 or 6 first- or second-round picks in the next two years and they've got a VERY young defense now. When you have a proven coaching staff and a group of young, hungry defensive players, it's probably going to bode well for you. Couple that with all of those high-quality picks and you've got a bright, bright future in Foxboro. So settle down Pats' fans, you may not go 16-0 and win a super bowl this year, but you've still got Brady, Moss, Welker and about 17 running backs. But I'm still taking the Falcons.
Atlanta - 27
New England - 19
Nut crunching time for the Texans. Houston has a few weeks of some semi-patsies coming up and it's a good time to gain some ground in the division. They get the hapless Jags at home and I have no reason to believe they have anyone who can slow Andre Johnson down. I'm still waiting for Steve Slaton to take off and I'm not sure this is going to be his week (more on this below).
Houston isn't as bad as most of may think they are and Jacksonville is. Even if Slaton continues to struggle, Johnson won't.
Houston - 24
Jacksonville - 15
Fantasy Update. Well, I'm 2-0 so that's good. I've continued to tamper with my roster on a weekly basis - I'm not sure if this is a good or bad strategy, but as of right now (typing this sentence over lunch on Thursday), I'm holding on to three QBs with only one WR backup. I think I need to fix that. Here's the deal, I'm not quite ready yet to dump McNabb. Sounds like he's out again this week, but I need to put a stake in the ground and give it until X date. I'm still holding on to Edwards as I think he's playing pretty solid football right now and will likely start him this week against the Saints (Kolb put up like 330 yards against the Saints defense and he's not near as good as Trent).
Meanwhile, my RB situation is a bit desperate. I did go and pick up Sproles this week which I think is a good move as I don't see Tomlinson staying healthy on any sort of consistent basis. And if I can get 100 total yards and a TD from him, I'm happy. My first round pick, Slaton, is struggling to say the least this year. Averaging 2 yards a carry and has as many fumbles as he did all last year. I'm not giving up on him just yet, but could be another stake in the ground thing with him too. I think I'll go Sproles and Ray Rice as my backs this week, but I've also got Fred Jackson, the up-and-coming workhorse out of Buffalo who has gotten better as the season has progressed. Lynch should be coming back soon and I actually dumped him for Jackson so we'll see.
Is Fitzgerald ready for a big breakout game? Please? Yes? I can't not go with him...I just can't. I am, however, sitting Percy Harvin this week. Going to try out the new guy - the new guy being Mario Manningham....against the Bucs. I like my chances.
I think this could be the week Lions' fans (all 4 of you). Here's my Budweiser Lock of the weekend (I just made that up...I have no sponsors, but as much Bud as I drink I should). In my heart of hearts, I believe these teams both know what's coming. The Skins have to be nervous as hell - no one wants to be the team that Detroit breaks the streak on, but they haven't looked good...at all. Meanwhile, I think Schwartz will have this team motivated like crazy - he'll have them believing they're going to win this game.
Look for Kevin Smith to have a big game running the ball and I imagine we'll see a simplified offensive scheme for young Stafford - all together now, "TAKE WHAT THE DEFENSE GIVES YOU". And I'll imagine they'll give a lot. The Lions will have to keep close tabs on Haynesworth as he's more than capable of disrupting things - avoid him and you'll be fine. Yes, I know, easier said than done.
I'm going Detroit here because my gosh this city and team needs a lift.
Detroit - 24
Washington - 20
Non-Football Thoughts for the week...
I still haven't found anyone who can explain the FedEx cup golf "tournament". Look, Golf, I get it. I get that you want to create a playoff of sorts as it's exciting. How many folks could care less about a regular season, but will always tune in for playoffs? A lot. Couple of things on this: First, golf is defined by the majors. I know exactly when they are every year and I will watch them. Second, not only is this "playoff" completely contrived and mindless, but it also competes with football and golf will NEVER compete with football...ever. And finally, let me ask you this - do you think Tiger is REALLY happy about winning the FedEx cup, but not winning any majors? I seriously doubt it. History doesn't judge greatness in this game based on FedEx cup wins.
Did anyone happen to see Gadhafi doing his stand up show at the UN? It was classic. Nice credibility UN, seriously, that was a joke. I will go to my grave believing in my hear that Gadhafi has been dead for years and they just had a muppet made to represent him. Look at his face when he talks and moves and tell me I'm wrong...I'm not.
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 12:31 PM
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