Big Games (and Big Traps) for the Big XII

I could be wrong friends, but I might suggest that we, die-hard fans of the Big 12, may want to look at re-evaluating our expectations as we head into conference play. Not suggesting that we'll see a massacre such as we saw last weekend in the SEC, but there are certainly some interesting match ups this weekend. In other words, Colt likely ain't going to be tossing 17 of 19 type numbers from here on out; Daniel probably isn't going to toss 425 yards a game; Graham Harrell won't be....no, he'll still throw up 450 a game. Either way, you get my point.

So what are these trap games you ask - let me elaborate...

Texas at Colorado:
I'll be honest, I've been up and down/hot and cold with this game for a few weeks now. You may recall that I picked the Buffaloes as my dark horse to come out of the north. On second look, I'm giving them one more year. They've got a lot of young players and they lost a few of their best defenders from last year including a pair of all Big 12 guys. Cody Hawkins is a talented QB and he's more than capable of making some plays and scoring some point. And yes, we all know that Darrell Scott snuffed the Horns for Colorado after sticking with Texas for months (what else is new) and so I'm sure he'll be looking to make some big plays.

Look, am I worried about Colorado being better than the Horns? Not at all. Am I worried about Texas showing up? A little. This is the ultimate trap game - road game against a respectable, yet inferior opponent (which also happens to be their homecoming), and a H-U-G-E couple of games looming against two top 4 teams. At the end of the day, Texas should win this game by at least 2 or 3 touchdowns, but what I'm REALLY hoping to see is continued improvement. I feel like these guys have gotten better and better as the last month has progressed and I'd really love to see that continue. And if that means winning a tight game by 3 to 6 points because CU played the game of their lives, so be it. We cannot afford to regress this week and I think the coaches will have them prepared.

Texas - 41
Colorado - 24

Texas Tech at Kansas State:
I'll briefly tell you what I think and then I'll hand it off to the "real expert" on the matter. Tech should win this game and win it big. BUT, Kansas State is one of those teams that will have a bad to really bad year, but beat one team they shouldn't (Texas happily filled that role the last two years..missing out on the conference championship because of it). Could this be their time???? I don't think so, but I also know what Tech is capable of on the road AND on national television. Don't be surprised to see KSU make this a game.

But what do I know? http://fannation.com/blogs/post/266855

Oklahoma at Baylor:
Rrrrrrriiiiiiiiiight.

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State:
I'm sorry, but this is going to be a looooong year for the Aggies. Okie State has put up 50 points a game the last 3 games. And I think they just may do it again - this Aggie team is just real young and frankly, not very good. Before things pick up in College Station they're going to have to start recruiting a hell of a lot better than they have the past 5 years....and that will not be easy.

Okie State - 52
Texas A&M - 20

Missouri at Nebraska:
This is one of the two "real" potential upsets I see. Is Nebraska as good as Missouri? Not at all, but this is in Lincoln where Mizzou hasn't won in forever. Talk about a coming out party opportunity for Pellini - this is THE prime opportunity for him to make his stake with this program and get the ship ready to turn. It's not entirely out of the question, but that defense will most certainly have it's work cut out for it as we know what Chase Daniel and company are capable of doing. On the other hand, Mizzou's defense has been anything but impressive thus far and although Callahan is gone, the Huskers still have an awfully good offense. I won't go so far as to say that the Huskers will pull this upset, but they will make Mizzou claw this one out.

Missouri - 34
Nebraska - 30

Kansas at Iowa State:
Just like I had a hunch with Bama over Georgia, I've got a hunch here. This is the one notable upset I think we'll see this weekend. It certainly won't get the national coverage of say KSU upsetting Tech, but it will be an upset nonetheless. Chizik gets his first signature win in this one.

Iowa State - 31
Kansas - 26

What Else You Ask???

• SEC continues it's roller coaster ride this weekend when Vanderbilt knocks off Auburn in Nashville
  
• Speaking of this game, when was the last time the Game Day crew was in Nashville for a Vanderbilt game?
• So it would appear that the Texas offensive staff is scratching the Q-package. Word from the team is that Chiles isn't developing as they were hoping - especially in the passing area. Oh, no sh*t? I'll keep saying it - get him in the game, but never EVER put him behind center unless he's 4 yards back and the play is for him to take off to the outside. He's not a passer. Period.
  
• We'll see if Wisconsin's 4th quarter lapse last week got their attention - the Buckeyes visit on Saturday night. Although not a national championship game, or USC match up, but a national spotlight game and an opportunity for OSU to right the ship. As much as I want the Badgers to pull this out, I think the Buckeyes slip by.
  
• Be careful Alabama. They get Kentucky this week followed by a bye week. They should demolish these guys, but this is, yet another upset/let down opportunity.
  
• Another top 10 team goes down tonight as South Florida was beaten at home by Pittsburgh 26-21. I think we'd all agree that South Florida, although a solid team, was not a top 10 team. I say UCONN goes down at North Carolina, leaving the Big East with no more undefeated teams.
• Want just one more potential upset special? I know, I know, it's like I'm saying every game this weekend is an upset special, but seriously - Penn State at Purdue. Like Texas, PSU is on the road against a lesser team a week before their game of the year. I'm just saying.
  
• Speaking of Penn State - how big is that blowout over Oregon State looking now? Looks like OSU is going to knock off Utah tonight as well which Nittany Lion fans are just fine with.
  

Non CFB Thoughts for the Weekend:

• Me and my NFL pick 'em - it's like a horrible round of golf: after a while, when you line up you realize you have no idea what you're doing.
• I gotta think Philly bounces back and drops the Skins back down to earth - although if they still don't have Westbrook anything can happen.
  
• Benson to Cincy, huh? Welcome to the AFC North Cedric, meet Ray Lewis...
• Speaking of Ray Lewis - I think this is the week we see the Titans finally fall. Looks like VY is physically cleared/healthy, but still sitting...as he should be.
  
• Talk about a disappointing season for the Vikings - I think they drop their road game in New Orleans this weekend, which would drop them to 1-4.
  
• How painful is it to be a Cubs fan right now? Sheesh, what an enormous egg these guys seem to be laying. And weren't they one of the top 2 teams in the regular season?
  
• I think I'm routing for the Dodgers and Rays to meet in the championship. You more loyal readers may recall that I had picked the Cubs and Angels in the finals, but clearly I know nothing about this crazy game. All I'm saying is this what I'm routing for.
• How badly does this country need a hero, a leader, to live up the real situation at hand? And it might be a good idea to bring in a few folks who may know a little bit about economics (clearly, no one in congress does) - Ross Perot, Boone Pickens, Warren Buffet, etc., etc.....yea, I said it, Ross Perot. I know he's a crazy little bastard, but the dude knows money and he knows the system. Then we wouldn't have the most important piece of legislation we've seen in our lifetime include a rider that provides tax breaks on the import of Rum from the Virgin Islands (yes, that's a real addition that was included to "sweeten" the deal and there are many more just like it).
  

Thank God we've got college football - enjoy the games this weekend.

Upset Bug

There was an outbreak this weekend and thankfully it steered clear of Austin. Just goes to show you that as much as we talk about teams "not having played anyone", that's all becoming relative. We get caught up in the USC, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, OU, Texas, LSU, etc. that you lose sight of the fact that more times than not, on any given Saturday, you can get beat.

There was a lot of talk about the now very slim chances USC may have of making the title game, but it's all of a sudden not that crazy. Honestly, as good and as deep as the SEC and Big 12 are this year I can't imagine any team coming out of either of those conferences unscathed. I think the same goes for the Big East, but for different reasons - and I think it's a pretty safe bet that no one is coming out of the Pac 10 undefeated. The one thing the Trojans DON'T have going for them is the fact that their schedule is pretty weak from here on out. I can see a 2-loss Auburn, OU, Texas or LSU team getting the nod ahead of them. Either way, should be a good year of football.

Horns Recap:
I gotta say, they're really coming together well. I hate to get overly optimistic/confident with this team because they've laid in egg in big games plenty in the past and we've got a few coming up. BUT, they really do look solid. And Colt - I swear this is a completely different person than we've seen the past 2 years. I'm not saying he's the top player in the country by any means, but you could make one hell of an argument that he's the best QB in the conference. He was 17 of 19 - he only had 2 incomplete passes. That's nuts. I know Mack can't like the fact that he continues to lead the team in rushing (don't want him getting hit too much), but man he's good at it. He looks like a smaller Tim Tebow - yes, I know how crazy that sounds, but it's true.

And the defense - what a great game. The Texas defense held the Hogs to 191 total yards for the game. That's great as they've been averaging much more than that through the air alone. The progress is showing, no doubt. I think the road game in Boulder next week will be another great test before they head into the meat of the schedule starting with back-to-back top 5 opponents. I'm backing off my "look out for the Buffs" just a bit after their loss to FSU, but as we should all know by now, we can't take any opponents lightly from here on out. I think we're going to see a very focused, very sharp and very intense Texas team come out of the gates in Big 12 play. One other thing here - Herbie talked about this on Game Day - no one is really talking about the Horns right now and Colt (the obvious best player on team) is getting very little national attention when compared with Daniel, Tebow, Sanchez and even Bradford. They are just quietly doing what they need to do and quietly climbing those polls. I think the Horns like it likes this...I know I sure do. Here's hoping that the attention stays near the Horns, but doesn't center around them - they don't handle that well at all. 

Other College Football Notes...

• I told you I had a hunch about Alabama! I don't think there's anyone who can argue with the fact that Nick Saban is one of the top coaches in college football. I didn't think they'd be this good this early, but they most definitely look like the most complete team in that conference right now. Long way to go, but that was a huge win.
  
• And what does this mean for the Bulldogs? Well, their chances of competing for the SEC aren't completely shot, but they definitely have a tough road. They visit LSU and Auburn, get Florida at neutral site, and get Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home - they'll get a chance to climb back up the polls. The good news is Bama is in the West division so at least it wasn't a divisional foe.
  
• I didn't get to see any of this game, but what's up with Florida? I heard this late last night and it stuck with me until this evening - the Gators are 6-4 in their last 10 conference games. Yes, they play a tough conference schedule every year, but these guys are bringing in top 3 or 5 recruiting classes year in and year out. Tebow is clearly not up to his heisman trophy form and they can't seem to find a running back who can play in that system...which is crazy to me. And what about their defense? Clearly they have talent and we've seen what they're capable of, but you have to wonder if teams are starting figure those guys out. I think their offensive coaches should probably try and figure a way to get others involved in the offense - Tebow running the draw and tossing to Harvin isn't going to cut it on every play.
  
• How do you lose on a blocked PAT...when you're Florida playing Ole Miss....at home?
  
• Going back to the Crimson Tide here, but did you see how agitated Saban was after the game? He was pissed that his team got outscored 30-10 in the second half. I like that. He knows his team let up and almost let Georgia back into it and he called them out on it. That's going to be one tough team to beat.
• Boy that was close Aggies - that would not have been good.
  
• I'm officially sold: Cody "Gimme the Rock" Johnson is my pick for the Horns starting back - it's really him and Vondrell and then everyone else at this point (and Colt).
  
• Until I'm proven otherwise (and we'll likely know between October 11 and 25), Penn State is the class of the Big 10.
• How did Wisconsin lose that game? Oh I know how, you take 5 turnovers in the first half and turn them into 0 touchdowns.
  
• Tommy Bowden is so fired - he can't save his job.
  
• Let me see if I understand this - Ohio State loses on the road to an undefeated, top 2 team and drops from 3 to 13. Then, USC loses to an unranked, 2-loss team and drops from 1 to 9. Am I crazy? I'm more and more convinced each week that these polls are the cause of most of the issues of college football. Broken Record: get rid of them until October. You will not have one iota of drop off in fan base or revenue. Oh and by the way, the pollsters also moved USC up above Georgia (whom they crowned as THE team in the pre-season) simply for beating a team from the east coast. I'm wondering when this love affair with USC will ever end. 
  
• Damn East Carolina - I stand corrected. Flash in the pan - I thought they were going to come out and roll the rest of the year after Skip lost that last game for them. But nooo...chumps.
• Florida State visits Miami next weekend - remember when that was THE game each year? OSU at Wisconsin, Texas at Colorado and Oregon at USC look to be the big ones next weekend.

NFL Notes...

• Another notch in the bed post of the NFC East - huge road win by the Redskins today. That is going to be a brutal division. Philly visits DC next weekend - no off weeks for those teams.
  
• Brett Favre and Kurt Warner put on quite a show today - 6 TDs for Favre. So it sounds like Mangino found his balls and took the leash off of Favre.
  
• Rogers had a rough go in Tampa, but when he left for a couple of series with an injury it really took the wind out of their sails. He made some bad throws, but he also made some great throws....sound familiar?
  
• Man, I can't get a break in my pick 'em game. Who in the world thought Kansas City would dominate Denver like that? I'm getting absolutely shredded. 
  
• After a quick start, looks like DeSean Jackson is laying an egg. After muffing a punt and giving Chicago the ball on their own 20 (resulted in TD), he let a punt go that he could have easily fair caught and it bounced down to the 2.
• So I have to think that Linehan and Kiffin will be gone by Monday afternoon...Oakland giving up a fourth-quarter lead and St. Louis can't beat anyone. Changes will be made, but I have to ask again - who's going to take the Oakland job?
  
• Back to the Broncos, I imagine teams will watch a lot of tape of this Kansas City game. We knew they had a porous defense, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see teams really start to pick them apart. Denver could very easily fade out of sight over the next 4-5 weeks.
  
• David Garrard showed some tremendous toughness in that battle with the Texans today - I think they ran that QB draw play on about 8 straight plays until he took it in the end zone.
  
• Donovan McNabb throws a pretty ball, but I don't think Philly can pull this one out. They're down 21-14 in the second half, but are down to their last running back. I'll tell you, when Westbrook isn't playing  they're not the same team. Chicago defense did a tremendous job. How many turnovers can you NOT turn into points Philly? 
• By the way Chicago - you STILL have a quarterback issue whether you choose to accept it or not. Please, for the Love of God, go get yourself a f'ng quarterback because you have none right now. 

That's what I got gang - have a good week.