The Party Ain't Over Folks

Alright Texas fans (actually players too), it's time to suck it up, quite your crying and move on. You've received a ton of confidence from the voters, you've got 3 games left and you are by no means out of anything. And to Red Raider, Cowboy and Sooner fan - you're ride is just beginning so strap it on. Bottom line, there is A TON of football yet to be played and if there's anything we've learned over the last couple of season, it's that chaos is sure to rule - I promise you the upset bug hasn't gone anywhere and will likely linger through the first week of December.

Short, but busy week for me this week so you'll see a more "abridged" version of the rant this week (you're welcome).

What to expect this weekend...

• Seriously Longhorns, Mack Brown said it best in an interview this week, "we've got to stop pouting and get back to work". No doubt Mack and company will have their work cut out for them - after 4 weeks as the darlings of the media, Texas got knocked off it's rocker just a bit and had now been relegated to the status of mortal and the coaches need to figure out how to make these guys forget about that. We talk a lot about what it takes to be a champion-caliber team and a lot of that talk centers around adversity and how teams handle it. Texas has been great at facing and overcoming adversity in games (OU, Okie State and even Tech to a lesser degree), but now they face a different kind of adversity - a loss. How they respond over the next two weeks will, I think, do more to define this team than anything thus far - and let's be honest, Texas hasn't been stellar in November over the past couple of years, twice blowing a chance at the Big 12 championship game with ridiculous losses. And let me be crystal clear about this yet again, Texas - you MUST demolish Baylor. If you don't win by 30+ points, you will leave doubts in the minds of the powers that be in this system and you can't afford to do that. I'm going with Texas (and Colt) bouncing back in this one in a big way: 52-17 Texas win.
• Couple of more thoughts on this... I do worry a tad about the distractions that this team is facing right now, namely: rumblings about Sergio Kindle already thinking about the NFL, Burnett being kicked off the team (young guy who was going to be key in the future of this O-line), Orakpo's injury, Cosby's injury, etc., etc. I'll reiterate - this Texas coaching staff has their work cut out for them - they need a bounce back game just as much as the players do. Don't be surprised to see A LOT of guys resting quite a bit against Baylor. And guess what young secondary, your task doesn't get a whole lot easier on Saturday.
  
• And speaking of Texas Tech - as I said, they're rodeo is just starting. I felt this way throughout the week and I think I'm still leaning this way, but I'm a bit torn. On one hand, there's no better scenario for Oklahoma State to be coming in than on the heels of the biggest win in Red Raider history. No doubt this Red Raider team was riding a monumental high throughout the week, as well they should because they earned it. On the other hand, this win will likely do wonders for Texas Tech's confidence going forward - this remains to be seen, but this team has to think it can play with anyone now. I do question whether Tech realizes how good Oklahoma State really is - and as Hooser will remind me (again), "we know how good they are, we lost on the last play of the game to a dropped pass last year." My response to that is both of these teams are vastly different teams this year - both being quite a bit better. I'll say this, having seen the other big 3 in the Big 12 south up close and personal, I'm still not sure Oklahoma State isn't the better of the 3...something tells me I'll know more after Saturday night. I'll go with the upset just because this time of year this is what we've come to expect: Okie State in a squeeker, 38-34.
  
• Hold on to your hats Penn State fans, this could be the weekend you've been waiting for...I'm talking 'Bama at LSU. First off, for all the writers/talking heads out there giving us the, "what's wrong with LSU?" bs, let me tell you what's wrong with them - NOTHING! They're young and raw. They're breaking in new defensive lineman and new offensive weapons. But the good news is you're starting to see some clicking. Yes, they've given up a ton of points/yards in recent games, but the good news is Alabama's offense is just OK at this point. The Tiger offense will have their hands full with this one, I think Les Miles gets over against Saban. I said it coming into the year and I'll repeat it - you can't question how good of a coach Saban is, you just can't. He'll have this team in the national title game, but it won't be this year....give it one or two more years. I'm taking LSU in a BCS-busting game. Tigers win 27-21.
  
• Memo to Penn State: I certainly haven't been too close to Happy Valley these past couple of weeks and the buzz that's going around, but I'll offer this advice - ignore the media. The more you pay attention to what's going to happen to this team or that team, the less you'll focus on the games. If I were you I would go and drum Iowa by 3 touchdowns because if you don't and you let them hang around, that's it. Win these remaining games and the system will work itself out, but it would behoove you to win them convincingly.
  
• Utah at TCU on Thursday night - you might want to tune into that one if you're a college football fan - could be seeing Gary Patterson officially get his name on just about every coaching vacancy out there (although he's allegedly a horrible interview....like Norm Chow). I'm taking the Horned Frogs here.
  
• Here's a million dollar question: do other schools looking for a new head coach look at what Muschamp has brought (intangible) to this program? Or do they look at the 117 ranking in pass defense? I'll say it again Horns' fans - Baylor will throw the ball all over the field - I suggest you find something to fill the "Orakpo" void in terms of pass rush.

BCS:
Don't worry, I'm not going to get into this. Yes, we all hate it. No, it doesn't make sense. I'll only throw this bit of advice - don't criticize the system for what it says in week 9, criticize it after week 12. It's not supposed to pick the best teams in early November, it's supposed to pick the best teams in early December. So pipe down and stay tuned....you'll get your chance for a legitimate gripe soon enough. I'm mostly talking to you Penn State fans.

Non-Sports Thought for the Week...
Like 'em or hate 'em - history was made this past Tuesday and you would be a fool to deny the importance of the occasion. Not really sure I thought I would see this in my lifetime, but here we are. Fascinating point here that I pondered on Tuesday night: I'm not sure my daughter will ever appreciate or understand how big of a deal this was....that's something else.

Here's the irony of all irony - one of the best commentaries I heard on Tuesday night regarding this historic election was from.....Karl F'ng Rove. Seriously. And is it me or does he look like one of those actors who you don't know his name, but you know him as the bad guy in like 87% of all B-movies?

Finally - I urge you to go and check out this week's South Park....funny stuff. The show is crude and ridiculous, but their ability to make fun of the right people at the right time (which is usually all of us) is genius. Here's a preview: the whole election was a farse so that McCain, Obama, Palin and Michelle Obama could steal a rare set of diamonds - it's a spoof of Oceans 11. Trust me, it's funny.

Crashing the Party

Ugh - what a completely weird and gut-wrenching game that was. Weird because I still can't figure out how Texas was even in this game to begin with, much less with the lead. And gut-wrenching because they got me all excited only to see the game (literally) fall through the finger tips. That was the epitome of having a victory ripped right back out of your hands as you're getting sucker-punched in the gut. 

And how about those Texas Tech Red Raiders - welcome to the show. What can you say about them, they came out and dominated every aspect of this game (except special teams). They earned by making big plays when they needed to (which was like, almost every play) - their receivers caught everything that came at them, even against good coverage. I will give their defense a bunch of kudos, but I also put the bulk of the blame for this game on Greg Davis and his game plan - it was as if he was trying to run plays that most cater to their defense. I would venture to guess that 20-30% of our plays were calls to give the ball carrier/receiver the ball 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage. That's not going to cut it. Either way, Tech's defense took advantage and made the plays - in looking at the big plays that Tech gave up (and the ones that Texas gave away on drops), I'm wondering why it took so long for Texas to figure out that attacking the secondary is the way to beat them. Frustrating. 

I'll tell you, I'm sure happy that run of games is over with, but this team is beat up and exhausted. Already with two of our DBs playing with limited to no time with injuries, we can now add Orakpo and Cosby to that list. Hopefully there's aren't serious, but either way, they don't need to play against Baylor - let them rest. Kansas could pose a challenge however, because those guys will be tossing the ball all over the field. I don't think Kansas stands much of a chance of beating Texas, but I'm a bit concerned that they've got 2 more games (one on the road) before the bye week. They should be able to get through this Baylor game at home with a lot of work by the reserves - will be a good opportunity to run the ball and play the backups. BUT, make no mistake, Baylor can move the ball so should pose a good challenge for the younger secondary (Gideon) to improve. 

So what should Texas fans route for the rest of the way???

A lot of this depends on what you want to happen - I'll assume you share my sentiment that getting to the conference title game is and should be the number one goal. If that's the case, here's what you want (other than Texas winning out) - the ideal scenario is that Tech loses two of their next 3 games (most likely next week against Okie State and then 2 weeks later at Norman). If that happens, Texas is in the title game, no disputes. If that's not the case then you want Tech to lose at least one of their next two games. Should Okie State beat Tech and then Tech beat OU, you want Okie State to then beat OU. If Tech beats Okie State, but beats OU, then you want OU to beat Okie State last game of the year. Bottom line, you just want Tech to lose games. 

If there's a 3-way tie for 1-loss teams in the south I think it will take it to the fifth tie breaker which would be the team with the highest BCS ranking at the time would go to the title game. That could be any of them depending on how the other games shake out across the country.

But bottom line for Texas fans - first and foremost win your games and I would recommend doing so in dominating fashion. Who knows, maybe this loss will ultimately be good for them (of course I hate saying that). We shall see. 

Few More Thoughts on the Game...

• 3 plays Horns' fans, 3 plays: 1) dropped INT to seal the game, 2) Colt's INT for a TD (that was 110% Colt's fault - he gave that safety a gift), and 3) piss-poor clock management on the last drive - snapping the ball on 3 straight plays with 12+ seconds on the play clock, with the clock running. There was absolutely no hurry at all and you knew, YOU KNEW, if Harrell had the ball back with a more than a minute you were really screwed. Poor coaching there.  
• Tell me honestly, Texas fans - how many of you said, "that's too much time" when they punched it in for the lead. I know I did. 
• This has absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of this game - let me be crystal clear on that - the fact that Tech did not have one offensive holding call against their line is inexcusable. I know Leach put on a production after last year's game, going off on the officials, maybe it worked, who knows. Either way, there were at least 2 calls that were blatant. Hell, on the replay of when Orakpo was hurt, he was being grabbed by his shoulder pads and tackled to the ground. That was bad. 
• I'm estimating that the Texas receivers were responsible for about 8-10 percentage points of completion percentage, about 90-100 yards of offense, and at least one TD. That's like 3 or 4 guys responsible for that because they dropped perfectly thrown balls. They were not prepared to play in that game - no one on the offense was. 
• I'm scratching my head on the defense - I mean, what else can you ask of them in this game? They held Tech's offense to 32 points, and only 10 in the second half....and the only TD they allowed was on the last play of the game. Like they always do - they'll give up  some yards, but they don't give up a ton of points, at least relative to what these offenses are averaging. 
• So where does Tech go from here? Couple of interesting things here. First, this was such a huge game for Tech - they're not going to just forget about this one after Sunday. They haven't beaten the Horns in 5 years and have never beaten a number 1 ranked team, this will linger. Those fans were celebrating like Tech just won the title - and they should have, it was a huge win. BUT, I just have my doubts about their ability to turn right around and do it for a second consecutive week, against a team that is just as good as the one who you just beat. No clue what the line will be here, but I'm not sure you don't go heavy on the money line. And second, Tech will soon learn that when you're the team with the pressure on your shoulders and the cross hairs on your chest, it's a whole different ball game - controlling your own destiny is hard to carry for 2, 3 or 4 weeks. I'll say this - watching Okie State and OU play these last couple of weeks - I'm glad we don't have to face them. 
• How different is this division going to look next year - The Big 12 South is losing Reasing, Daniel, Harrell, Tech offensive line, OU offensive line, OU receivers, Texas receivers, Robinson at Okie State, etc. With most of Missouri's team graduating and rumors of the coach heading to Washington, don't be surprised to see that program suffer quite a bit. 

What Did We Learn This Weekend:

1. We learned that for the second straight year, the BCS is heading for a potentially disastrous scenario. While Texas is just finishing their gauntlet of top 12 teams, most of the teams still have some very notable games remaining including OU, Okie State, Texas Tech, Alabama and Florida. And if I'm not mistaken, the media's pre-season darlings of Ohio State and Georgia are not in the discussion. Meanwhile, Boise State (9), Utah (10), and TCU (11) are quietly climbing the ladder in a stealth-like manner, biding their time until they can come crashing down on things. Stay tuned folks. 
2. We learned that Florida is for real - on both sides of the ball. With all the talk about the great defenses of the SEC (hmm, let's talk about Georgia, LSU, Auburn...), Florida and Alabama seem to be the only teams holding any truth to that claim. Florida looked ridiculous good against Georgia on Saturday and certainly solidified their spot in the discussion. I'll say it now, should they get to the conference championship (very likely) and face off against 'Bama (almost certain), I'm giving the edge to Florida - they've got that "scary good" look about them again.
3. We learned that Colt McCoy just made the heisman discussion a multi-candidate discussion again. With his performance on Saturday night, Bradford may sneak back up there a bit - and don't be surprised to see the "experts" elevate Harrell quite a bit. I could really care less one way or another, but will be in interesting to see where the voters turn to. 
4. We learned that the closest we'll ever come to a college football playoff started 3 weeks ago and will last for the next 3 weeks. Stay tuned as the carnage continues in the Big 12 South (Tech, Okie State and OU all still face each other); watch as 'Bama tries to keep it together at LSU and in the Iron Bowl; and how much is Penn State sweating? Texas and Penn State are in similar situations - your road is MUCH more manageable from here on out, but you still need help. This is where style points count - if I'm the Horns or the Lions, I'm thinking I need to win these next 3 games in blowout fashion. You can't eek by these guys. 
5. We learned that it's a damn shame that two BCS spots will go to the ACC and Big East champs - that's some mediocre football being played right there. Meanwhile, TCU, Utah and Boise State will probably all be left out (I guess you gotta take one, right?). 

I'll be taking a hiatus and doing some hunting next weekend so I'll miss the action - hopefully I can pick up the Tech game on the radio (I'll be in the bowels of west Texas). I'll try and get post out before Friday, but if not, don't hold it against me.