The Disney Finals
Let's call it the "Mickey Mouse" series with Disneyworld and Disneyland facing off. I had to hold off on posting my keys to the game and picking a winner because I honestly didn't know what to think about this series. On one hand, the Lakers have been the most maddening team to follow in these playoffs and on the flip side, I'm still waiting for Orlando to miss a 3-pointer (I think they just made another one). But fear not friends, I've put a lot of thought into this and I'm ready to give you insights into how this series will go and ultimately, who will be celebrating at Disneyland (or will it be Disneyworld?).
Here are the keys to the game for both teams. Although Orlando won both games against the Lakers in the regular season, both games came down to the last minute of the game and if these playoffs have taught me anything it's that the regular season match ups don't really matter (Lakers swept the Rockets in the regular season and took 3 of 4 from the Nuggets).
5 Things the Lakers must do
1. Don't get caught up in doubling Howard - Most folks think "Superman" when they think of the Orlando Magic. But, if you've been paying attention to these playoffs you know that they are ridiculously good three-point shooting team. If you focus on trying to stop Howard (which the Lakers likely won't be able to do), the outside guys will KILL you on the threes. Although I can't imagine the Magic keeping up this level of consistency from long range, you can't bank on that.
As painful as this is to write, you have to do your best to play Howard one-on-one with Bynum and Gasol. I'm not suggesting you never double Howard, but at the end of the day, they can't leave those shooters open all day.
2. Go large - LA has a tremendous advantage in terms of size. Don't be surprised to see Lamar Odom get the bulk of the minutes at power forward. He can hang with the roaming Magic forwards far better than Gasol can. Additionally, Odom should give the Lakers a tremendous advantage on the offensive end - look for a few, short stints with Odom, Bynum and Gasol on the floor at the same time to really disrupt the Magic on both ends of the floor.
3. Turn the tables on the "toughness" stigma - It's not secret that LA has been labeled as a "soft" team in these playoffs - and rightfully so, they are by no means a physically intimidating team. But, neither is Orlando. Hell, even Howard isn't a hugely intimidating force in the paint. He's great and is unstoppable if he gets the ball on the block, but he's not going to go Kenyon Martin, KG or Kendrick Perkins on you. This series presents a great opportunity for the Lakers to shake this "soft" label and be the aggressor in the paint on both ends of the floor. The Lakers are a great offensive rebounding team and they have the advantage with their size - they need to embrace that and get physical, especially in the paint.
4. Run, run, run - I've said this before and I'm sticking with it - if the Lakers get going with their fast-paced offensive running game, they are virtually unbeatable. The Rockets had so much success with their ability to slow the game down and play their style of ball - the Lakers have a tremendous opportunity to better control the pace of the game with *their* style of play. Another big part of this is forcing Howard to run his ass off - when the Lakers have Gasol at center, he should be able to run Dwight pretty good.
5. Win Game 1 - Both Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant are undefeated in playoff series when they win game 1 (combined 67-0). That's huge because between these two guys there are quite a few playoffs series. I point this out because in the last 2 series, Orlando has taken game 1 on the road. Although LA has lost game 2 at home in both their previous series, they have gone on to take game 3 on the road, retaking home court advantage. Point is - win game 1 and statistics are on your side. I'll take this a step further and say that if LA takes the first two games, this series is over. But let's not get ahead of ourselves - let's take game 1 and let's do it in convincing fashion and LA will be fine.
5 Things the Magic must do
1. Keep making threes - Yea, I know, it doesn't take a genius to realize that if these guys keep making 45+% of their threes, they are going to be very tough to beat. With those sharp shooters and with the big man down low, the Magic have a nearly unstoppable inside/outside game. Orlando will need to stay focused on this, likely having to make some adjustments along the way to keep their game plan focused on getting those guys shots.
2. Deny Kobe - Like every other team that faces the Lakers, the defensive strategy must be to force the other Lakers to beat them. In the two regular season match ups, Kobe had some huge games - and I believe he had a triple-double in one of them. What has to be worrisome for the Magic is the fact that the last two games of the Nuggets series saw the Lakers supporting cast (most notably Odom and Walton) step up and play huge minutes. Nonetheless, no matter how well these guys play, you have to stick with the plan of forcing them to beat you - because there's no question in any one's mind that Kobe can certainly beat them.
3. Move the ball - Orlando has been so good at ball movement throughout these playoffs which has led to the vast majority of those open 3s you've read so much about. The Magic absolutely must move the ball around and trust their shooters to make shots. Houston also did this extremely well against LA and, I believe, played a large part in Houston's success in that series. Where LA has killed teams defensively is when they are standing around and playing one-on-one ball - that will not fly against LA. If Orlando gets lulled into this style of play, they will get swept.
4. Aggressive point guard play - Anyone who paid any attention to LA in the West finals knows that they were exploited with regularity at the point guard. Fisher could not keep up with Brooks in Houston and wasn't big enough to challenge Billups in Denver. The good news for the Lakers is that Alston isn't as good as those guys and likely won't have that same success. BUT, there is a huge opportunity for them to work in some offensive sets where they can exploit Alston's quickness to break down the defensive and get some good looks or draw some fouls. I wouldn't be surprised (and hope I do frankly) to see a bit more of Shannon Brown in this series. One more thing here - I can't imagine Jameer Nelson playing at all in this series. They got to the finals without him - they don't need him. I don't see how he can add much, if any value. I don't expect him to even suit up to be honest.
5. Don't crumble and stay sharp - It's been a great ride for Orlando, but let's be honest, this is a whole other level against a whole other team. I'm not one that buys the theory that you can't win a championship until you lose a championship (see LA in '00, Detroit in '04 and Miami in '06). BUT, I do believe that playoff experience is huge - in other words, being challenged, fighting through adversity and clawing out big wins. Orlando has done this quite well this year - most notably being down 3-2 to Boston and winning two straight games including a game 7 in Boston. However, LA ran a brutal gauntlet this year, going against teams that presented tough match up issues and gutting out some tough wins. Most importantly though is LA's experience in last year's finals. I think that will serve to be a tremendous amount of motivation. If Orlando gets down 2-0 in this series, I can see them getting flustered and allowing LA to blow the whole thing open.
So there you have it - the keys to this series for both teams. So what does it mean? Who the hell knows, but here's what I'm hanging my prediction on - the Lakers played 2 complete games to close out the Denver series and are coming in highly motivated after last year's embarrassing loss to the Celtics. Although they have been so horribly frustrating at times (a lot of times), I still think this is a whole other level and I can't help but to think that the Magic are somewhat satisfied after beating the defending champs (sans KG of course) and every one's favorite darling team in consecutive series.
Lakers in 5.
Lebron:
Oh, so all of sudden King James isn't the perfect, model citizen we all thought he was. Seriously, this whole "snub" issue isn't that big of a deal. BUT, to act like that when times were there toughest shows a bit of immaturity. I'm certainly not going to crush this guy at all because he's definitely a great kid and a ridiculous player, but you have to be a bigger man than that dude. Don't worry about it Lebron, but you just can't do that shit again because if you're not careful, it may begin to define you.
And can you imagine if Kobe would have done that? He would have been absolutely crushed by the media who seem to look high and low for reasons to crush him. Again, not a huge deal, but to say there isn't a double standard would be a flat-out lie. The thing is though, Kobe would have *never* done that. He takes his lumps (and he's taken a lot), he congratulates and respects his opponents and he takes the daggers from the press.
Kobe Doin' Work:
Speaking of Kobe....I finally watched the Kobe Doin' Work documentary and it was.....just OK. I like the idea of it, I really do, but I would have liked to have seen some other stuff such as interviews, following him around for a day in the life, etc. I would really like to see the same thing done with KG, Lebron, Dwayne Wade and others - that would be very interesting to get all of those perspectives. Here are a couple of things I did take away from the show:
- I don't think there's anyone in the league (except maybe Garnett) who works as hard and is as focused as Kobe Bryant. I mean, not even close.
- Kobe has a tremendous amount of respect for his opponents - a *tremendous* amount of respect.
- When Kobe's on the floor in any given game against any given opponent there's not a player who comes close to being as "basketball smart" as him. I would put Jason Kidd close in this category, but even he's not at Kobe's level. It was kind of neat watching him coach these other guys on the court. He knows exactly what the defense is going to do and when they're going to do it.
Here are the keys to the game for both teams. Although Orlando won both games against the Lakers in the regular season, both games came down to the last minute of the game and if these playoffs have taught me anything it's that the regular season match ups don't really matter (Lakers swept the Rockets in the regular season and took 3 of 4 from the Nuggets).
5 Things the Lakers must do
1. Don't get caught up in doubling Howard - Most folks think "Superman" when they think of the Orlando Magic. But, if you've been paying attention to these playoffs you know that they are ridiculously good three-point shooting team. If you focus on trying to stop Howard (which the Lakers likely won't be able to do), the outside guys will KILL you on the threes. Although I can't imagine the Magic keeping up this level of consistency from long range, you can't bank on that.
As painful as this is to write, you have to do your best to play Howard one-on-one with Bynum and Gasol. I'm not suggesting you never double Howard, but at the end of the day, they can't leave those shooters open all day.
2. Go large - LA has a tremendous advantage in terms of size. Don't be surprised to see Lamar Odom get the bulk of the minutes at power forward. He can hang with the roaming Magic forwards far better than Gasol can. Additionally, Odom should give the Lakers a tremendous advantage on the offensive end - look for a few, short stints with Odom, Bynum and Gasol on the floor at the same time to really disrupt the Magic on both ends of the floor.
3. Turn the tables on the "toughness" stigma - It's not secret that LA has been labeled as a "soft" team in these playoffs - and rightfully so, they are by no means a physically intimidating team. But, neither is Orlando. Hell, even Howard isn't a hugely intimidating force in the paint. He's great and is unstoppable if he gets the ball on the block, but he's not going to go Kenyon Martin, KG or Kendrick Perkins on you. This series presents a great opportunity for the Lakers to shake this "soft" label and be the aggressor in the paint on both ends of the floor. The Lakers are a great offensive rebounding team and they have the advantage with their size - they need to embrace that and get physical, especially in the paint.
4. Run, run, run - I've said this before and I'm sticking with it - if the Lakers get going with their fast-paced offensive running game, they are virtually unbeatable. The Rockets had so much success with their ability to slow the game down and play their style of ball - the Lakers have a tremendous opportunity to better control the pace of the game with *their* style of play. Another big part of this is forcing Howard to run his ass off - when the Lakers have Gasol at center, he should be able to run Dwight pretty good.
5. Win Game 1 - Both Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant are undefeated in playoff series when they win game 1 (combined 67-0). That's huge because between these two guys there are quite a few playoffs series. I point this out because in the last 2 series, Orlando has taken game 1 on the road. Although LA has lost game 2 at home in both their previous series, they have gone on to take game 3 on the road, retaking home court advantage. Point is - win game 1 and statistics are on your side. I'll take this a step further and say that if LA takes the first two games, this series is over. But let's not get ahead of ourselves - let's take game 1 and let's do it in convincing fashion and LA will be fine.
5 Things the Magic must do
1. Keep making threes - Yea, I know, it doesn't take a genius to realize that if these guys keep making 45+% of their threes, they are going to be very tough to beat. With those sharp shooters and with the big man down low, the Magic have a nearly unstoppable inside/outside game. Orlando will need to stay focused on this, likely having to make some adjustments along the way to keep their game plan focused on getting those guys shots.
2. Deny Kobe - Like every other team that faces the Lakers, the defensive strategy must be to force the other Lakers to beat them. In the two regular season match ups, Kobe had some huge games - and I believe he had a triple-double in one of them. What has to be worrisome for the Magic is the fact that the last two games of the Nuggets series saw the Lakers supporting cast (most notably Odom and Walton) step up and play huge minutes. Nonetheless, no matter how well these guys play, you have to stick with the plan of forcing them to beat you - because there's no question in any one's mind that Kobe can certainly beat them.
3. Move the ball - Orlando has been so good at ball movement throughout these playoffs which has led to the vast majority of those open 3s you've read so much about. The Magic absolutely must move the ball around and trust their shooters to make shots. Houston also did this extremely well against LA and, I believe, played a large part in Houston's success in that series. Where LA has killed teams defensively is when they are standing around and playing one-on-one ball - that will not fly against LA. If Orlando gets lulled into this style of play, they will get swept.
4. Aggressive point guard play - Anyone who paid any attention to LA in the West finals knows that they were exploited with regularity at the point guard. Fisher could not keep up with Brooks in Houston and wasn't big enough to challenge Billups in Denver. The good news for the Lakers is that Alston isn't as good as those guys and likely won't have that same success. BUT, there is a huge opportunity for them to work in some offensive sets where they can exploit Alston's quickness to break down the defensive and get some good looks or draw some fouls. I wouldn't be surprised (and hope I do frankly) to see a bit more of Shannon Brown in this series. One more thing here - I can't imagine Jameer Nelson playing at all in this series. They got to the finals without him - they don't need him. I don't see how he can add much, if any value. I don't expect him to even suit up to be honest.
5. Don't crumble and stay sharp - It's been a great ride for Orlando, but let's be honest, this is a whole other level against a whole other team. I'm not one that buys the theory that you can't win a championship until you lose a championship (see LA in '00, Detroit in '04 and Miami in '06). BUT, I do believe that playoff experience is huge - in other words, being challenged, fighting through adversity and clawing out big wins. Orlando has done this quite well this year - most notably being down 3-2 to Boston and winning two straight games including a game 7 in Boston. However, LA ran a brutal gauntlet this year, going against teams that presented tough match up issues and gutting out some tough wins. Most importantly though is LA's experience in last year's finals. I think that will serve to be a tremendous amount of motivation. If Orlando gets down 2-0 in this series, I can see them getting flustered and allowing LA to blow the whole thing open.
So there you have it - the keys to this series for both teams. So what does it mean? Who the hell knows, but here's what I'm hanging my prediction on - the Lakers played 2 complete games to close out the Denver series and are coming in highly motivated after last year's embarrassing loss to the Celtics. Although they have been so horribly frustrating at times (a lot of times), I still think this is a whole other level and I can't help but to think that the Magic are somewhat satisfied after beating the defending champs (sans KG of course) and every one's favorite darling team in consecutive series.
Lakers in 5.
Lebron:
Oh, so all of sudden King James isn't the perfect, model citizen we all thought he was. Seriously, this whole "snub" issue isn't that big of a deal. BUT, to act like that when times were there toughest shows a bit of immaturity. I'm certainly not going to crush this guy at all because he's definitely a great kid and a ridiculous player, but you have to be a bigger man than that dude. Don't worry about it Lebron, but you just can't do that shit again because if you're not careful, it may begin to define you.
And can you imagine if Kobe would have done that? He would have been absolutely crushed by the media who seem to look high and low for reasons to crush him. Again, not a huge deal, but to say there isn't a double standard would be a flat-out lie. The thing is though, Kobe would have *never* done that. He takes his lumps (and he's taken a lot), he congratulates and respects his opponents and he takes the daggers from the press.
Kobe Doin' Work:
Speaking of Kobe....I finally watched the Kobe Doin' Work documentary and it was.....just OK. I like the idea of it, I really do, but I would have liked to have seen some other stuff such as interviews, following him around for a day in the life, etc. I would really like to see the same thing done with KG, Lebron, Dwayne Wade and others - that would be very interesting to get all of those perspectives. Here are a couple of things I did take away from the show:
- I don't think there's anyone in the league (except maybe Garnett) who works as hard and is as focused as Kobe Bryant. I mean, not even close.
- Kobe has a tremendous amount of respect for his opponents - a *tremendous* amount of respect.
- When Kobe's on the floor in any given game against any given opponent there's not a player who comes close to being as "basketball smart" as him. I would put Jason Kidd close in this category, but even he's not at Kobe's level. It was kind of neat watching him coach these other guys on the court. He knows exactly what the defense is going to do and when they're going to do it.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 1:07 PM
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