Rebound Week
Lots of chances for lots of teams to make some significant rebound statements this week. The least of which are those head-scratching Longhorns. Thanks to some "surprise" teams, it's shaping up to be another great Saturday of college football (tiny, little jab: there are no bad Sundays of NFL). Let's start with the big one in the Big 12 this weekend up in D-town....
Texas vs. Oklahoma
I don't think I got a blog out before or after the West Virginia game, but here's the deal - as much as it pained me, I didn't have Texas winning that game, and I cannot in good faith, pick Texas to win this game. I hope I'm wrong. Let's examine...
First off, defensively they are a mess. It's clear there is something going on because there are times when opponents make moving the ball on this once-heralded defense looks pretty easy. The thing of it is, you know there are great athletes on this Texas defense because you can see them, individually, in certain situations. But together, they're a mess. I know athletically and talent-wise, these guys are capable of playing with anyone, but they're missing the glue to it all. The front four are damn-near as good as you can get, but once offensive players make it past those guys, it's a crap shoot. Jeffcoat and Okafor are premier players - arguably the two best ends in College Football. But you can give up an occasional sack if you're executing on 65% of your plays to counter those guys. How? Running right at them. Bottom line on defense - my faith will be restored when I see this defense actually fix their core issues.
Here's the deal, if you can force Landry Jones out of the pocket on passing plays you've got a big advantage because the Texas defense is very athletic and is capable of making big plays when the offense is under pressure. If you allow them to run the ball for 5-7 yards a clip, well, it's going to be a long night.
Offensively, how can you complain? I certainly found myself scratching my head at some of the play calling - I sometimes have this sense that they're trying too hard to do something in particular when it doesn't matter because other things are working. How about using the pass (which has been working quite well) to set up the run? It's not crazy. With that said, Ash looks great and Jonathan Gray is proving to be a nice commodity - he's got a really big game in him coming up at some point in next few weeks, you can feel it.
What does it all mean? Call me a negative nancy, but as I said, when I see the defense able to step up and stop the run, forcing Landry Jones to be one dimensional, and feel pressure, I'll buy into it. But if I'm Stoops, I'm coming out running the ball to the left for the first 12 plays or so. I hope I'm wrong, but here's how I got it...
Oklahoma - 24
Texas - 20
South Carolina at LSU
I've resigned to the fact that LSU simply isn't near as good as we had anticipated. They continue to struggle to put a better-than-average offense on the field, this year getting a downright bad performance for the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are riding a serious high. Don't get me wrong, this is a TOUGH road game, playing in Baton Rouge at night. But South Carolina is brimming with confidence, and their defense should hold LSU to some pretty low offensive numbers. I think Shaw is capable of more than a few plays to get them in scoring position. If Lattimore has his best game since his injury, they win big.
South Carolina - 24
LSU - 13
Beware the Trap Games
I'm looking in your direction Mountaineers and Aggies...
West Virginia at Texas Tech - Here's all I'm saying. The Tech defense did a pretty good job (the third-quarter meltdown was 87% on the offense) against Oklahoma, they just had their souls sucked out of them in an eight minute stretch in the third quarter. Keep a few things in mind here....1) This is West Virginia's second trip to Texas in about five days (that's a lot); 2) this game, on paper, seems a bit easier than the game prior and the next game (Kansas State in Morgantown); and 3) if you had to, could you draw up a more perfect trap game situation? I think not. If you listened to the podcast you know I was a bit more ambiguous, but now that I'm putting in print, I'm taking the trap game special here.
Texas Tech - 49
West Virginia - 45
Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech - You know, I've had mixed feelings on this game the more I've thought about it. On one hand, if the Aggies had played LaTech in the opening game, perhaps they would have been better-suited to hold on to beat the Gators in week 2. On the other hand, LaTech has looked pretty good and perhaps, just perhaps, the Aggies would have lost that game and been destined to a pre-judgement of mediocrity that they could not escape no matter what. Either way, the Aggies are good and by golly so are the Bulldogs. And play the "who have they played" card all you want, but they went on the road to play Illinois and Virginia in consecutive weeks (long trips) and put up over 100 points combined. These cats can play ball. I think the Aggies pull it out, but wouldn't be surprised to see this go the other way late. BIG looking ahead game for A&M with LSU coming to town next week.
Texas A&M - 45
Louisiana Tech - 42
NFL Notes
Texas vs. Oklahoma
I don't think I got a blog out before or after the West Virginia game, but here's the deal - as much as it pained me, I didn't have Texas winning that game, and I cannot in good faith, pick Texas to win this game. I hope I'm wrong. Let's examine...
First off, defensively they are a mess. It's clear there is something going on because there are times when opponents make moving the ball on this once-heralded defense looks pretty easy. The thing of it is, you know there are great athletes on this Texas defense because you can see them, individually, in certain situations. But together, they're a mess. I know athletically and talent-wise, these guys are capable of playing with anyone, but they're missing the glue to it all. The front four are damn-near as good as you can get, but once offensive players make it past those guys, it's a crap shoot. Jeffcoat and Okafor are premier players - arguably the two best ends in College Football. But you can give up an occasional sack if you're executing on 65% of your plays to counter those guys. How? Running right at them. Bottom line on defense - my faith will be restored when I see this defense actually fix their core issues.
Here's the deal, if you can force Landry Jones out of the pocket on passing plays you've got a big advantage because the Texas defense is very athletic and is capable of making big plays when the offense is under pressure. If you allow them to run the ball for 5-7 yards a clip, well, it's going to be a long night.
Offensively, how can you complain? I certainly found myself scratching my head at some of the play calling - I sometimes have this sense that they're trying too hard to do something in particular when it doesn't matter because other things are working. How about using the pass (which has been working quite well) to set up the run? It's not crazy. With that said, Ash looks great and Jonathan Gray is proving to be a nice commodity - he's got a really big game in him coming up at some point in next few weeks, you can feel it.
What does it all mean? Call me a negative nancy, but as I said, when I see the defense able to step up and stop the run, forcing Landry Jones to be one dimensional, and feel pressure, I'll buy into it. But if I'm Stoops, I'm coming out running the ball to the left for the first 12 plays or so. I hope I'm wrong, but here's how I got it...
Oklahoma - 24
Texas - 20
South Carolina at LSU
I've resigned to the fact that LSU simply isn't near as good as we had anticipated. They continue to struggle to put a better-than-average offense on the field, this year getting a downright bad performance for the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are riding a serious high. Don't get me wrong, this is a TOUGH road game, playing in Baton Rouge at night. But South Carolina is brimming with confidence, and their defense should hold LSU to some pretty low offensive numbers. I think Shaw is capable of more than a few plays to get them in scoring position. If Lattimore has his best game since his injury, they win big.
South Carolina - 24
LSU - 13
Beware the Trap Games
I'm looking in your direction Mountaineers and Aggies...
West Virginia at Texas Tech - Here's all I'm saying. The Tech defense did a pretty good job (the third-quarter meltdown was 87% on the offense) against Oklahoma, they just had their souls sucked out of them in an eight minute stretch in the third quarter. Keep a few things in mind here....1) This is West Virginia's second trip to Texas in about five days (that's a lot); 2) this game, on paper, seems a bit easier than the game prior and the next game (Kansas State in Morgantown); and 3) if you had to, could you draw up a more perfect trap game situation? I think not. If you listened to the podcast you know I was a bit more ambiguous, but now that I'm putting in print, I'm taking the trap game special here.
Texas Tech - 49
West Virginia - 45
Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech - You know, I've had mixed feelings on this game the more I've thought about it. On one hand, if the Aggies had played LaTech in the opening game, perhaps they would have been better-suited to hold on to beat the Gators in week 2. On the other hand, LaTech has looked pretty good and perhaps, just perhaps, the Aggies would have lost that game and been destined to a pre-judgement of mediocrity that they could not escape no matter what. Either way, the Aggies are good and by golly so are the Bulldogs. And play the "who have they played" card all you want, but they went on the road to play Illinois and Virginia in consecutive weeks (long trips) and put up over 100 points combined. These cats can play ball. I think the Aggies pull it out, but wouldn't be surprised to see this go the other way late. BIG looking ahead game for A&M with LSU coming to town next week.
Texas A&M - 45
Louisiana Tech - 42
NFL Notes
- Oh Packers, Packers, Packers - not your year. It's just not.
- In a weird, "looking-towards-end-of-season" thought for the night - I'm anxious to see how Pittsburgh handles the off season. This is an OLD, and broken-down team. Tough as nails, but I don't see how these guys will be able to play deep into December and contend.
- Arguably make-or-break games for.....Jet (by this I mean Rex Ryan), and Lions (by this I mean Jim Schwartz). I'm not saying, just saying...
- Andrew Luck is really good. And should be really good for a long time. What will we think when we look back at this Colt's team in 5 years - going from over a decade of Peyton Manning, to a downer year, to Andrew Luck. Anyone else get a sense they could win 8 or 9 games this year?
- If the core team of the Texans (looking at you Schaub, Johnson, Foster, Watt) stays healthy, not sure who's keeping them out of the Super Bowl.
- Fear not my readers, after an 0-3 start, I've reeled off two straight in my fantasy league. Let's just say I'm starting to find the right mix of players....and I'm getting lucky.
- Sorry G-men - not sure I'm seeing a victory in Candlestick. Close game, sure, but not a V.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 11:22 PM
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