Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Let's Go Dancing!!

My friends, the greatest sporting event in the history of mankind is just over 24 hours away - it also marks one of the least productive times of the year for most businesses...but not for us dedicated souls here at Sun Microsystems. If you haven't filled out your brackets yet, now's the time! And if you can't find an office, or any other, pool to get into then you obviously have your head in the sand.

This year I've gone so far as to fill out 2 brackets for 2 different pools...which means that's just 10 more dollars that I'll probably end up losing (for the record, I won my pool last year with 3 of 4 final four teams and one of two finals teams). That just means I'll get dead last this year. BUT, I'm off to a good start this year as I picked Niagra to stomp Florida A&M...of course I also realized that there is not a bracket pool in the world that actually includes that game in its scoring - memo to NCAA, it's a pointless game, just go back to 64 teams. Or, as Tony Kornheiser offered up, make one of the "big boys" play in this play-in game - Illinois vs. Stanford if you will. We would probably at least watch it then.

Anyway, with so many story lines, I don't even know where to begin - so let's just do a rapid fire edition here.

March Madness Hodge-Podge:
- The selection committee is taking a bit of heat (surprise, surprise) this year regarding some of their picks and some of their omissions: my take is this may have been one of the toughest years to select given the parity around the league. The one glaring omission was of course Syracuse though. If you go 10-6 in your conference (much less the very tough Big East) you are a shoe-in. The one inconsistency I see with the committee, and I generally think they do a great job, is that with some teams they look at the body of work (which should be the case) and in some cases they look at the past 5-10 games. You have to set the same criteria for everyone. At the end of the day, you're always going to have some teams upset - if you try and please everyone, you won't please anyone.

- I want to hit on this one last time - get rid of the play-in game. It's so mindless to expand the field to 65 teams and have a stupid game where the winner gets a chance to only lose by 20 to the overall #1 seed. It's a slap in the face to the smaller conferences. The only thing worse then leaving some of those smaller schools out is making 2 of the teams play this stupid game. Even the teams who get in to play this game don't like it.

- Here's a quick look at the upsets I'm picking inclusive of both of my brackets:
Oral Roberts (14) over Washington State (3) - this is a big one, but ORU had a couple of good runs in the tourney the past couple of years with the same team - WSU hasn't been in ages.
Albany (13) over Virginia (4) - Virginia was playing very well earlier in year, but has struggled of late.
Illinois (12) over VaTech (5) - First off, you have to pick at least one 12 over 5 seed as it happens every year. Illinois is pretty sloppy on offense but REAL good on defense and VaTech has a tendency to turn the ball over A LOT! And they just got destroyed by NC State.
Georgia Tech (10) over UNLV (7) - I've got Georgia Tech in the elite 8 in one of my brackets. Why not???
Old Dominion (12) over Butler (5) - This is every one's favorite 12 over 5 upset and I usually pick 2 of those upsets every year.
George Washington (11) over Vanderbilt (6) - GW came from George Mason's conference - if you don't remember George Mason from last year then you need to put down the bong. Again, I'm chalking this up to 'why not'.

- Here are my list of teams whom I have no idea what to expect:
Texas - these guys could end up in the final four or lose to New Mexico State in the opening round at the last second and I wouldn't be shocked. My lack of confidence in their ability to close out games makes me nervous. BUT, I do have them in the elite 8 in one bracket and sweet 16 in another based on upsets around them and their second round draw. Lot of talking heads have them beating UNC. I've got Marquette knocking UNC in the second round in one of my brackets which eases the road.
Tennessee - I've got them in the elite 8 in both of my brackets. They've had some really good wins and some even tougher losses - I like experience in picking teams to go far. BUT, again, these guys could get blown out in 2nd or 3rd round and I would not at all be surprised.
Duke - I mean c'mon, it's Duke right? Coach K? I think not. These guys are way down this year relative to the past 15 years or so. I've got them going out in first and second round in my picks, but this is another team who could get on a roll and no one would be surprised.
Memphis - They lost 3 starters from last year (2 to the NBA in first round), but the word on the street is that they are a much better *team* this year. I can see another early exit looming for these guys, they're likely opponent in the sweet 16 is A&M or Louisville. That's tough.

- Here are the games NOT to miss (and I pray we get to see some of these match ups)
1st Round: Kentucky vs. Villanova
2nd Round: Louisville vs. Texas A&M (too bad it's in Louisville's backyard)
2nd Round: Marquette vs.UNC
Sweet 16: Pitt vs. UCLA
Sweet 16: UNC vs. Texas
Elite 8: Kansas vs. UCLA

- Here are my final four teams in each of my brackets
Bracket 1: Oregon, Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville - Kansas over Georgetown in finals
Bracket 2: Florida, UCLA, Georgetown, Texas A&M - UCLA over Georgetown in finals

- My #1 seeds most in danger of getting ousted early: Ohio State with UNC as a close 2nd

- Most overrated/overseeded team: Wisconsin (largely due to one of their top players is out, but also because they're really not as good as their record indicates)

- Most underrated/underseeded team: Louisville - they struggled early (big time), but have really played great ball lately. Obviously I think these guys can make some noise this year.

- Toughest region: East Rutherford - UNC, Georgetown, Marquette, Texas, Michigan State

- "Weakest" region: San Antonio - Aggies and Louisville are my faves here. I think OSU bows out pretty early as does Memphis.

- Why I don't have Florida in the finals in either bracket: Because it's too damned hard to repeat in college basketball. Even getting to the finals two straight years is tough.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Championship Week Recap Vol. 3

Is it me or did they take the tape from the last Texas/Kansas game last week and just replay that game? Could those two games have been any more alike save for the OT? This sounds bad, but I just had a bad feeling with about 7 minutes to go in the first half (when Kansas went on an 14-3 run) that Texas wasn't going to be able to pull it out. Durant was...I think we've used every adjective in the book for this guy, but he was unreal. I'll throw this little sidebar out here - if he (for some reason) comes back next year, you can chisel Texas into next year's final four. He's that good.

Unfortunately today, no one else was really that good. More importantly, no one else played with any consistency. I'm not sure what happened to DJ Augustin, but since the conference tournament started, he has regressed quite a bit. For the first time in a long time, he never looked comfortable running the offense. And I can't for the life of me figure out why we set up our half-court offense up at mid court. I understand spreading the defense out, but they play so far away from the basket and in turn, have to settle for long jump shots more times than not.

Look, Texas really should have won that game, but yet again, come crunch time in the last minute, Texas blanks out mentally:
1. You're up by 2 and breaking their press beautifully - there's one guy the other team WANTS to put on the line. Durant has the ball, still has his dribble and the clock is running down, they're not ready to foul yet. He then, immediately passes to the one guy Kansas WANTS to foul...they foul him. We need 2 free throws to ice the game. He makes one.

2. Kansas coming down - they need a 3 to tie it. I'm no division coach, but I'm telling my guys to pick up man-to-man full court and if you can go for a steal, go for it. Play aggressive. Worst-case scenario, you foul them...where they get 2 free throws. What do we do? Drop back in a f'ing 2-3 zone???? The same zone that for the past half of basketball they've been consistently getting wide open 3s? Sorry, that's all on Barnes right there. They were playing not to lose there.

Don't get me wrong, Kansas is really REALLY good - probably a final four team. But man Texas, you have to be able to win games like that. I've said it before and I'm saying it again - their defense and rebounding are killing them. Not just today, but all weekend, the opposing team's guards were going right around Abrams and Augustin both - drive and dish all day long.

The one thing we know for sure (and have known), Durant can carry this team on his back, but other folks have to step up and make plays to win games like this against top tier competition.

Some would argue that Kansas State got hosed a bit, but I think at the end of the day it came down to the body of work of the season - Tech had more meaningful wins throughout the year, and won the head-to-head regular season game. And I just don't think both of those teams deserved to get in.

Should be a great tournament, I think this field has a lot of parity, more than in past years. Get those brackets filled out - I'll definitely have my not-so-locks for the big dance before the madness begins on Thursday. And special note to senior management on this list - this will be, without question, your least productive week of the year.

Championship Week Recap Vol. 2

Well Horns fans, another tough win in the bag. You've got to love the way these guys are winning right now. Granted, Baylor is no good at all and they should not have struggled like they did, but the OSU game was a good win - they clawed back to take a good lead going into halftime and weathered every run that the Cowboys threw at them. The same issues, that some would argue are anomalies, continue to plague these guys though: terrible rebounding (giving up an obscene number of offensive rebounds), inconsistent defense (at best) and an overall lack of physical tough play. Look for Barnes to go into the off season and recruit some hefty big man who's sole job is to rebound and get physical in the paint.

Augustin certainly played better yesterday than he did against Baylor, but he's going to have to step it up today if they are going to have a shot. And Abrams, chill out, you don't have to force a 3-pointer every time down the court. I suspect a pretty good game today - certainly a more balanced game out of both teams than we saw a week ago, I've got to give Kansas a slight edge here - they're a better team. BUT, it is tough to beat a good, quality team twice in a season.

- How about the Wolfpack from NC State? They dismantled the two Virginia schools (both very solid teams this year) and are heading for a tough matchup against the Tar Heels. UNC just may cream these guys, but it's hard to stop a train that's on a roll like that. Could be a good game, but I think in the end UNC will bring them back down to earth.

- Here's a newflash, you definitely DON'T want your team playing the Hoyas in this year's Big Dance. I think these guys are a definite 2 seed, but they could go down to a 3 depending on a potential upset today. They've got great guards and good big men to clean up the boards - pretty balanced. And they just tore threw their conference tournament.

- I say Florida blows by Arkansas today in the SEC final (same conference championship matchup as in football), securing them a number 1 seed and a real potential to repeat - of course that's extremely hard to do in any sport.

Selection Sunday:
As exciting as these games are today one has to wonder how much they will actually impact the selection committee. Let's think about it - the selection Sunday show airs sometime around 5:00 or 6:00pm tonight. BUT, the Big 10 championship game starts at 2:30pm. The Big 12 championship game starts at 2pm. You're going to tell me that these games will have an impact on the selection? No way. These guys have to have all of these things set much earlier than when the show actually airs - prepping the talking heads, graphics, etc. So what's the point? Yes, it's great entertainment, but if they aren't going to even consider the outcome of 2 games, why play the games (money)?

In many cases, say with the aforementioned Big 12 and Big 10 games, these matchups in the championship game were pretty much the expectation - Wisconsin and Ohio State and Kansas versus Texas. Of course you could have easily replaced Texas with the Aggies there as well and it would not have been a shock. So obviously Kansas will be the favorite over Texas, but what if Texas wins...and wins running away with it? Shouldn't it affect their seeding? Same with Wisconsin - Ohio State is a projected number 1 seed, but what if Wisconsin drops them? I would say Ohio State should drop to a #2 seed in favor of a Georgetown (who blew through the Big East tourney) or even Kansas if they win today. It's screwed up, but it's still the best system we've got in college sports.

I'll do a final recap tonight before the tourney starts next week.