Final Four
In the interest of full disclosure, my brackets (I've got 2 of them) have been in the trash for almost a week now while my wife, praised for her expert picking capabilities on this very blog last week, is clinging to a Michigan State championship dream (the Spartans are the only team left in her final four and she's got them winning it all).
Aside from the very exciting Nova/Pitt game (and to a lesser, sloppier extent, the Duke/Texas game) I'd say this year's tournament has been somewhat uneventful. Of course you could point to the Siena upset of Wake Forest, but as good of a regular-season team as the Deacons are, who amongst us *really* had them making a lot of noise in the tournament? That's what I thought.
Let's take a look at our final four teams...
Villanova - Not many folks have these guys having much of a chance against mighty Carolina, and that logic is pretty safe as Carolina is playing very well right now. But, consider this, the teams that have given the Tar Heels the most trouble this year have been predominately guard-oriented teams - Wake Forest, Boston College, Florida State, etc. Granted, they haven't been given much trouble this year, but when they did it was the guard play that killed them. Nova's game is predominately centered around guard play and their ability to hit the 3. Most average basketball fans now know the name Scottie Reynolds after the point guard's floater with less than a second left to knock off mighty Pitt. His scoring is good, but his percentage is down in the tournament (less than 35%) - that just won't do. And don't forget, Carolina has Ty Lawson at that position and if you haven't been paying attention - bad toe or not this cat is goooooood!
After getting man-handled by Griffin last weekend, I expect to see Hansbrough really turn it on. Nova has a very good and very steady Dante Cunningham to counter Psycho T, but I really don't expect TH to have two consecutive sub-par games. As heavily as Nova relies on guard play, Cunnigham seems to be the most consistent element of this Wildcat team in the tournament.
At the end of the day, Nova's success is predicated on their guards' ability to get separation and get their shots off - this means that Carolina will really have to clamp down on the perimeter. If Nova can get some good shooting percentages from their guards and hit their "threes", they've got a good chance fo the upset. If not, they have no chance for the upset. I'm taking Carolina by 8 in this one.
North Carolina - What else can you say - these guys just keep throwing all-star caliber players at you: Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green, etc., etc. That's how they kill you, they can bring in play maker after play maker. As mentioned above, I expect to see Hansbrough have a big game here - in the interest of seeing a good game, I hope Jay Wright had his crew watching a lot of game film of the OU/UNC game to see how Griffin was able to do what he did....of course it didn't hurt that he's the best player in the game today.
I'm not sure the status of Lawson's toe, but if the past few games have been any indication, I'd say he's feeling fine. I've said it before, tournament success is predominately predicated on guard play and although Nova centers their game around it, it doesn't mean Carolina can't hang just as well in this area. I assure Wellington and Green together will present some serious challenges to the defensive abilities of these Wildcats.
As I said, I'm taking Carolina here - just too many weapons.
UCONN - Remember when many (including me) were saying that the Huskies would have some issues without Dyson at the point? Rrrriiiiiiight. AJ Price has stepped in and all of a sudden we've forgotten all about Dyson. At 15 points and 5 assists a game in the tournament, I'd say he's fitting in just fine. What Price will need to a better job is getting his teammates involved - others scoring averages are down without Dyson in the lineup. Whereas Dyson was more of a floor general, Price is a quick, slashing scoring point guard which isn't a bad thing, it's just easy to rely more heavily on that type of player to carry the scoring load.
This game will come down to Thabeet and the Huskies' ability to get spacing so as to open up the the low post so Thabeet can go one-on-one against whomever Izzo throws at him. I'm not sure Michgan State has anyone on their team, much less in the state of Michigan, that can hang with Thabeet for 40 minutes. Good news for Huskie fan is UCONN forwards Adrien and Robinson are big bangers who love to play physical, but who are also quite proficient at creating space and opportunities for their big man.
UCONN's advantage is down low in the front court and their ability to exploit and capitalize on that will be the difference in the game. It won't be easy as Izzo is as good a motivator and defensive coach as there is in the game today. Which brings me, finally, to....
Michigan State - Of the final four teams still left, the Spartans are without any major stars. BUT, these guys have all bought into Izzo's system and you just can't help but to think that this could take them all the way to the title. If you've been watching Michigan State at all in this year's tournament, you know that defense is the name of their game - that's where they frustrate teams the most. We all saw how Louisville's studs got frustrated with the pressure and in turn made many mistakes. Shooting guard Travis Walton, although not a hugely consistent scorer, has played tremendous defense - especially on Kansas' Collins and Louisville's Terrence Williams. Look for Walton to shadow Price all over the court today.
One note that got almost no pub (and I didn't ever notice this until I read more closely), but point guard Kalin Lucas was turnover free against Louisville's infamous pressure defense and press - that's really amazing. Having a game general/ball handler who can control the pace of the game will be huge - and one thing that may decide this game.
At the end of the day, Thabeet may prove to be too much for the Spartans, but I just have too much faith in Izzo and there have been numerous examples of teams who have shut Thabeet down for Izzo to take advantage of. Also, this game is in Detroit which is less than 2 hours away from East Lansing....and evidently it's the 30th anniversary of Magic vs. Bird in the tournament - where Magic and team went on to win it all. I'm taking the Spartans in a very tight, hard fought victory. MSU by 4.
Cutler:
Whine and you shall receive. Don't you just love the growing sense of entitlement that seems to get more and more blatant and obnoxious with every generation?? I digress. So Cutler is now a Chicago Bear. My initial thought is good luck with all of that. I know I've been on Denver's side throughout all of this (and I'm still shocked that so many out there blame McDaniels in this instance), but I just think the Broncos got so much better of a deal in all of this. They had a TERRIBLE defense last year and now have 4 first round picks in the next two years to help shore that up. Additionally, they can trade those picks for veteran defensive star power should the opportunity present itself.
Kyle Orton is by no means the end all, be all solution at QB for Denver, but with he and Simms, McDaniels can try and work his magic that he's so known for. I do think Orton will be a serviceable QB for the next couple of years and who knows, maybe he can be the franchise QB, but I don't think he's a Jay Cutler in terms of talent. Either way, they've got good receivers, good offensive line and a decent running back - offensively, the Broncos look good. Defensively they don't, but again, 2 first rounders this year, 2 third rounders and then 2 more first rounders next year will help that.
Chicago on the other hand, and finally to Mr. Cutler....I don't know. I think Chicago felt like (rightfully so) that they have small window of opportunity to get back to the super bowl and that Cutler can be the difference maker to get them over the hump. The Bears are a defensive-focused team and their stars aren't getting any younger so there is a sense of urgency there. I just don't know if they have enough skill players around him - do they have a real receiver? Devin Hester is a great talent, but hasn't showed anything other than an incredible ability as a return man.
Look, Cutler is an upgrade at the position (and kudos to Chicago management for growing a pair and pulling the trigger), no doubt about that, but I'm just not so sure he'll be able to be as effective in Chicago as he was in Denver. We'll see, but I kind of hope he regresses and Orton turns in a head-turning season under McDaniels. Good news for Cutler is he's in a terrible division (just as he was in Denver) so a third of his season will be against the Packers, Lions and Vikings.
(Sidebar note on this story - I recently learned that University of Illinois football coach (coordinator I think) is now on Chicago's staff and when he was at Illinois, he offered a scholarship to Cutler out of high school, but then rescinded the offer which, some say, Cutler never got over. Yea, this should end well - if there's one thing we know about Cutler it's that he's a prima dona, thin skinned and surrounds himself with some terrible consultants including one Bus Cook. I predict another melodramatic moment in Chicago when things don't go so well.)
NBA Notes:
Aside from the very exciting Nova/Pitt game (and to a lesser, sloppier extent, the Duke/Texas game) I'd say this year's tournament has been somewhat uneventful. Of course you could point to the Siena upset of Wake Forest, but as good of a regular-season team as the Deacons are, who amongst us *really* had them making a lot of noise in the tournament? That's what I thought.
Let's take a look at our final four teams...
Villanova - Not many folks have these guys having much of a chance against mighty Carolina, and that logic is pretty safe as Carolina is playing very well right now. But, consider this, the teams that have given the Tar Heels the most trouble this year have been predominately guard-oriented teams - Wake Forest, Boston College, Florida State, etc. Granted, they haven't been given much trouble this year, but when they did it was the guard play that killed them. Nova's game is predominately centered around guard play and their ability to hit the 3. Most average basketball fans now know the name Scottie Reynolds after the point guard's floater with less than a second left to knock off mighty Pitt. His scoring is good, but his percentage is down in the tournament (less than 35%) - that just won't do. And don't forget, Carolina has Ty Lawson at that position and if you haven't been paying attention - bad toe or not this cat is goooooood!
After getting man-handled by Griffin last weekend, I expect to see Hansbrough really turn it on. Nova has a very good and very steady Dante Cunningham to counter Psycho T, but I really don't expect TH to have two consecutive sub-par games. As heavily as Nova relies on guard play, Cunnigham seems to be the most consistent element of this Wildcat team in the tournament.
At the end of the day, Nova's success is predicated on their guards' ability to get separation and get their shots off - this means that Carolina will really have to clamp down on the perimeter. If Nova can get some good shooting percentages from their guards and hit their "threes", they've got a good chance fo the upset. If not, they have no chance for the upset. I'm taking Carolina by 8 in this one.
North Carolina - What else can you say - these guys just keep throwing all-star caliber players at you: Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green, etc., etc. That's how they kill you, they can bring in play maker after play maker. As mentioned above, I expect to see Hansbrough have a big game here - in the interest of seeing a good game, I hope Jay Wright had his crew watching a lot of game film of the OU/UNC game to see how Griffin was able to do what he did....of course it didn't hurt that he's the best player in the game today.
I'm not sure the status of Lawson's toe, but if the past few games have been any indication, I'd say he's feeling fine. I've said it before, tournament success is predominately predicated on guard play and although Nova centers their game around it, it doesn't mean Carolina can't hang just as well in this area. I assure Wellington and Green together will present some serious challenges to the defensive abilities of these Wildcats.
As I said, I'm taking Carolina here - just too many weapons.
UCONN - Remember when many (including me) were saying that the Huskies would have some issues without Dyson at the point? Rrrriiiiiiight. AJ Price has stepped in and all of a sudden we've forgotten all about Dyson. At 15 points and 5 assists a game in the tournament, I'd say he's fitting in just fine. What Price will need to a better job is getting his teammates involved - others scoring averages are down without Dyson in the lineup. Whereas Dyson was more of a floor general, Price is a quick, slashing scoring point guard which isn't a bad thing, it's just easy to rely more heavily on that type of player to carry the scoring load.
This game will come down to Thabeet and the Huskies' ability to get spacing so as to open up the the low post so Thabeet can go one-on-one against whomever Izzo throws at him. I'm not sure Michgan State has anyone on their team, much less in the state of Michigan, that can hang with Thabeet for 40 minutes. Good news for Huskie fan is UCONN forwards Adrien and Robinson are big bangers who love to play physical, but who are also quite proficient at creating space and opportunities for their big man.
UCONN's advantage is down low in the front court and their ability to exploit and capitalize on that will be the difference in the game. It won't be easy as Izzo is as good a motivator and defensive coach as there is in the game today. Which brings me, finally, to....
Michigan State - Of the final four teams still left, the Spartans are without any major stars. BUT, these guys have all bought into Izzo's system and you just can't help but to think that this could take them all the way to the title. If you've been watching Michigan State at all in this year's tournament, you know that defense is the name of their game - that's where they frustrate teams the most. We all saw how Louisville's studs got frustrated with the pressure and in turn made many mistakes. Shooting guard Travis Walton, although not a hugely consistent scorer, has played tremendous defense - especially on Kansas' Collins and Louisville's Terrence Williams. Look for Walton to shadow Price all over the court today.
One note that got almost no pub (and I didn't ever notice this until I read more closely), but point guard Kalin Lucas was turnover free against Louisville's infamous pressure defense and press - that's really amazing. Having a game general/ball handler who can control the pace of the game will be huge - and one thing that may decide this game.
At the end of the day, Thabeet may prove to be too much for the Spartans, but I just have too much faith in Izzo and there have been numerous examples of teams who have shut Thabeet down for Izzo to take advantage of. Also, this game is in Detroit which is less than 2 hours away from East Lansing....and evidently it's the 30th anniversary of Magic vs. Bird in the tournament - where Magic and team went on to win it all. I'm taking the Spartans in a very tight, hard fought victory. MSU by 4.
Cutler:
Whine and you shall receive. Don't you just love the growing sense of entitlement that seems to get more and more blatant and obnoxious with every generation?? I digress. So Cutler is now a Chicago Bear. My initial thought is good luck with all of that. I know I've been on Denver's side throughout all of this (and I'm still shocked that so many out there blame McDaniels in this instance), but I just think the Broncos got so much better of a deal in all of this. They had a TERRIBLE defense last year and now have 4 first round picks in the next two years to help shore that up. Additionally, they can trade those picks for veteran defensive star power should the opportunity present itself.
Kyle Orton is by no means the end all, be all solution at QB for Denver, but with he and Simms, McDaniels can try and work his magic that he's so known for. I do think Orton will be a serviceable QB for the next couple of years and who knows, maybe he can be the franchise QB, but I don't think he's a Jay Cutler in terms of talent. Either way, they've got good receivers, good offensive line and a decent running back - offensively, the Broncos look good. Defensively they don't, but again, 2 first rounders this year, 2 third rounders and then 2 more first rounders next year will help that.
Chicago on the other hand, and finally to Mr. Cutler....I don't know. I think Chicago felt like (rightfully so) that they have small window of opportunity to get back to the super bowl and that Cutler can be the difference maker to get them over the hump. The Bears are a defensive-focused team and their stars aren't getting any younger so there is a sense of urgency there. I just don't know if they have enough skill players around him - do they have a real receiver? Devin Hester is a great talent, but hasn't showed anything other than an incredible ability as a return man.
Look, Cutler is an upgrade at the position (and kudos to Chicago management for growing a pair and pulling the trigger), no doubt about that, but I'm just not so sure he'll be able to be as effective in Chicago as he was in Denver. We'll see, but I kind of hope he regresses and Orton turns in a head-turning season under McDaniels. Good news for Cutler is he's in a terrible division (just as he was in Denver) so a third of his season will be against the Packers, Lions and Vikings.
(Sidebar note on this story - I recently learned that University of Illinois football coach (coordinator I think) is now on Chicago's staff and when he was at Illinois, he offered a scholarship to Cutler out of high school, but then rescinded the offer which, some say, Cutler never got over. Yea, this should end well - if there's one thing we know about Cutler it's that he's a prima dona, thin skinned and surrounds himself with some terrible consultants including one Bus Cook. I predict another melodramatic moment in Chicago when things don't go so well.)
NBA Notes:
- Cavs took a pounding of mass proportion on Friday night and that coupled with a Laker win over the Rockets, LA is now within a game of the best record and trust me, it matters. So much so that Phil Jackson is playing his starters some serious minutes considering they've already wrapped up the 1 seed in the west. He knows the importance of home court advantage.
- Speaking of Lakers - first time in many years that they've swept the Rockets this season. And my dream of Rockets and Spurs finishing 2 and 3 in the standings looks like it won't come true - Rockets dropped to fifth with last night's loss.
- And one more thing on Rockets - even without McGrady, they seem to be doing their unusual end of season swan song yet again. It's crazy how they go to sh*t in the last 10 games of every season.
- Spurs age will catch up to them in the playoffs - they're tough as well, but I just don't think they've got what it takes to win another title this year. Too old, too many miles on Ginobli, Duncan and Finley.
- If you read the Truth & Rumors bit about the Lakers being frustrated with Bynum, consider this - not one named or anonymous source was cited. i.e. it was made up.
- With that said, Bynum is at a crossroads of being a bust or fighting through the injuries. Personally, I just don't think his body was ready for the rigors of the NBA season - remember, he came right out of high school. Bottom line is this, for someone who gets so much pub, he hasn't played any real basketball passed the month of February. He's kind of like a lesser Greg Oden (I say lesser because he doesn't get the recognition/pub that Oden gets).
- Speaking of, I'm going to keep asking you all this, tell me when you're ready to officially call Greg Oden a bust of mass proportion. I'm already there - this guy will be another Darko.
- Other than last night, I'm not sure who is going to keep up with/challenge the Cavs in this year's playoffs. I do know this, somehow the refs will ensure that we see Kobe vs. Lebron in this year's finals. Mark it down.
- What I said about the Spurs above also applies to the Celtics - with our without Garnett, I don't think these guys can beat Orlando or Cleveland in a 7-game series. Especially without home court advantage.
- Word on the NBA street is that this year's draft is one of the weakest in recent memories. After Lawson, Griffin and perhaps Collins, it's kind of a crap shoot. Even Griffin will have to alter his game a bit as he can't play a center position at the next level.
- With the west being as tight as it is, Utah simply can't drop games like that to the Timberwolves. That was a bad loss.
- From the "Don't you just hate it when..." files - Don't you just hate it when you're waiting in line at someplace - Starbucks, burger joint, whatever - and the people in front of you get up to the counter and stare up at the menu going, "uuuuuuuhhhhhhh....". Hey duesche bag, you've been in line for 3 or 4 minutes, what the hell have you been doing this whole time?
- I'm thinking the Sun/IBM deal gets hashed out by next Wednesday. Will be interesting for yours truly and the 27,000 other employees worldwide. From a business perspective, this makes a ton of sense - Sun knows how to make really good products, but has no idea how to monetize those products. Whereas IBM is very good at monetizing just about anything.
- Have you noticed that the republican party continues to unravel? I've read some speculation, including from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, that the GOP risks a break up, so to speak, with the emergence of a new, third party. That can't be a good thing for GOP faithful. The question is will it be a good thing for politics in general? My take is anything (and I mean ANYTHING) is better than our current system.
- Isn't it ironic that we've spent the last 7-8 years (and countless dollars) in war within a country that is a lifetime away from the US, with no evidence that whatever was going on there had a direct impact on America's safety - but in our neighbors to the south, where drug cartel violence is exploding, brutal murders and other crimes creep into our country everyday and we continue to do nothing? Unreal.
- Go read Tom Clancy's Clear and Present Danger - I honestly believe we can help to cripple the drug cartels in a very covert way with minimal intrusion into the country. Call me crazy, but I think it can be done....if they would just let us/ask for our help.
- One more thing on this - for those who so vehemently oppose the legalization (or should I say decriminalization) of drugs because of the potential affect on society I ask you this: what affect has the criminalization of those drugs had on our society? If someone isn't interested in trying drugs now, today - they likely aren't going to be any more interested if they are legal. And finally, a third of our prisoners that are incarcerated today are locked up for non-violent, drug offenses. I'm not pro drugs - I'm just pro common sense. Anyone who tries to give you any evidence that this "war on drugs" has had an ounce of positive affect and has been worth the investment is simply lying, or is completely naive. Will legalizing drugs make all the problems go away? Not likely, but it will do a couple of things: 1) cut the legs out from under the drug cartels and their impact on this country, 2) create a new and extremely lucrative job market (this equals jobs, tax increases, etc.), 3) let law enforcement agencies focus more time on more heinous criminals, and 4) will greatly lessen the burden on the corrections system. Does any of that sound even halfway appealing? It's certainly intriguing to me and I would, at the very least, like to see lawmakers have some serious and intelligent discussions around it. Unfortunately more times than not, that's a lot to ask of our government.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 4:44 PM
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