Now What
Well Horns fans, we wanted a Sooner win, but sheesh - we didn't want a demoralizing assault quite like that. So what the hell happens now you ask? A LOT of campaigning, that's what - and it's already started. Rest assured, Bob Stoops will be touting the worthiness of his team over the next several days - as well he should. You would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that OU may be playing the best football right now. I will, however, caution Mr. Stoops on one thing - he's still got to go into Stillwater and take care of a business. And by take care of business I mean he needs a convincing win in a very hostile environment. If you're Texas, you're routing for a very ugly game where OU has to make a defensive play or block a field goal at the end of the game. Essentially, you want OU to play bad...but not bad enough to lose because I'll tell you this, Baylor probably ain't going to beat Tech (although I do wonder how Leach will be able to pick his team's pride up from the field after last weekend's debacle). I've got a lot to cover so let's jump in.
Big 12 South:
So here we are, the dreaded 3-way tie for the division title. The odds are currently in OU's favor here - although they trail Texas by the smallest fraction of a point, and their one remaining opponent is far superior to Texas' which should be enough to propel them past Texas in the BCS standings should they win in normal OU fashion. Additionally, OU has victories over TCU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference season - both solid teams. Hell, I know it doesn't mean much, but Cincy will likely win the Big East - yes, I know they suck, but when you see the words "victory against BCS conference champ" it carries some sort of weight. OU is definitely in a good spot, but I'll say it again - if I'm Stoops I'm putting more energy into putting on a show in Stillwater and less energy into the campaign trail...at least for now.
Texas Tech - These guys dropped like a stone and I was initially quite surprised at how far they fell. But, after thinking about it, I kind of think they got it right. Look, no one can question that Tech is a MUCH improved team this year all around. Harrell is playing better than any QB they've had there in the past; Crabtree is still a premier offensive player and their defense is head and shoulders better than past years. BUT, you can't lose like that, ever, and still be included in the upper echelon of teams. I'll be honest, I do honestly believe that had Tech beaten Texas by 20+ (like they should have), they wouldn't have fallen near as far. We've talked about this before - Tech outplayed Texas in just about every faucet of the game back in October - even being up by 19 at one point - and they had to win on the last play of the game. Tech was one dropped INT away from blowing that game after dominating Texas and again, I believe that crept into the minds of the human pollsters. Couple that with that loss against OU and there's your number 7 ranking and on the outside looking in. Of course, just as fast as they fell to 7, they can climb right back up to top 3 with an OU loss and a win in big 12 title game. We'll see.
Texas - Can you remember a team that has played so consistently well over the past decade and has had the conference championship allude them so consistently during that same time? Sheesh. Again, Texas could climb into the game this year, but it will take a Tech loss to Baylor coupled with an OU loss, or a very ugly OU win. I'm not banking on it. For now, I'll take my convincing win over the Aggies (more on this below) and my Fiesta Bowl against likely USC or Ohio State. It's hard to remember this, but the same question must be asked: who amongst us expected Texas to be in this position when the season started? I sure didn't and neither did you. I was picking at least 2 losses at this point in the season. What else is there to say here - gotta thump the aggies, but yet again Texas is bit by the bug of having to rely on other teams to pull an upset. Which brings me to...
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State:
I'll say it again - there are few (if any) teams who are playing as well as OU right now. And you just know they are brimming with confidence. Stoops has his big-game label back, Bradford is inching closer and closer to a heisman trophy, and they likely control their own destiny. With that said, they're going on the road in a huge rivalry game against a team who has consistently played them tough over the past several years. The difference in this game will be Okie State's ability to get something going offensively - something they weren't able to do in Lubbock. OU's defense still has some holes in it (regardless of what Tech's offensive line was trying to sell us) and Gundy's ability to exploit those holes will be key - he's got the talent to do it, but does he have the coaching to do so?
Defensively is another story - I'm not sure what Okie State's defense is going to be able to do against Bradford and company, but I know this - they did have some success in at least slowing down Mizzou's and Texas' offenses on the road and that's saying a lot. I also think that Okie State will take OU's premature campaigning a little personal and will use that as motivation to come out and prove that they belong in that discussion as well (even if just a little bit).
At the end of the day, as much as I want this or that to happen, I just think OU is on a roll. I'm taking the Sooners, but not in a blow out. Remember what we know about these Big 12 South "power teams": when they get away from home they are completely different teams.
Oklahoma - 38
Oklahoma State - 30
Texas A&M at Texas:
We all know how much of a nice guy that Mack is (hell, many of us have criticized him to no end for it...and rightfully so in some instances), but I think you're going to see something a little bit different this week. I have no evidence or insight to base this on, but here's my prediction: Mack and company will be looking for style points here....in a BIG kind of way. And frankly, I think they'll get it. There's plenty of motivation to go around here - the last two years' losses; hit on Colt two years ago; trash talking this year; big 12 championship possibly on the line; Colt heisman; etc., etc. Furthermore, I think you're going to see Muschamp take this opportunity to build on the defensive success of the Kansas game.
And to make matters worse (for aggie fan), A&M is T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E this year. I mean just horrible. If I'm the Texas coaching staff, and the Horns pull out a 10-point victory, I'm considering it a resounding failure. Look, I know it's a rivalry, but there's not one person out there who can honestly say that the Aggies belong on the same field as this Texas team this year. Aggies will improve, you know they will, but they are in transition limbo here and it's not pretty down in College Station. Furthermore (you heard me allude to this a few weeks ago) they are officially out of bowl eligibility - a lot of teams would use that as motivation to come out and play head and shoulders above themselves, but not this A&M team. I think these guys want nothing more than to end this nightmare season and go back to....whatever in the hell it is they do in Colllege Station. Texas cannot and will not come out flat. Not this time. Horns pitch a shut out.
Texas - 49
Texas A&M - 0
BCS:
Here we are, another college football season that's about to take any ounce of credibility that the BCS has, take it out back and literally beat it to death. There's a very fine line between any type of system/process that you have to continually tweak and optimize to improve for the better, and a system/process that is so consistently ineffective that you should scrap it. The BCS system is teetering on that line. If you're halfway a college football fan than chances are you've discussed, to some extent, all of the possible scenarios that could play out. A very real possibility is that we'll have a whole bunch of 1-loss teams - Texas, OU, Texas Tech, Florida and/or Alabama, USC, and Penn State - and a few undefeated Utah, Ball State, and Boise State teams. Two of those undefeateds are getting hosed...big time. And 4 of those 6 1-loss teams will get hosed. Tell me, of all of these teams, who DOESN'T deserve at least a shot at the title.
Whether they continue to "tweak" the sytem or just ultimately scrap it (not likely in my lifetime), there are, as always, a few "musts". First, it is beyond ridiculous that any team can compete for the national title if they don't even win their conference title. Please someone, I dare you, try and make an argument as to how that makes sense. Second, I'm not sure what goes into these Sagarin rankings, but they've got Tech ahead of...wait for it....OU!! Pat Forde of espn.com attempts to explain that the BCS uses a variation of this rating that attempts to minimize margin of victory. Whatever, I don't care what you use, there's absolutely no excuse for that. You can't use rankings, polls or whatever they are that eliminates that much of common sense and reality. Third, P-L-E-A-S-E stop using the Coach's poll as a legitamit (and pretty key) factor. You would hard-pressed to find anyone in this country who actually believes that these coach's actually take the time to watch these games to understand how good/bad the teams are. Why? BECAUSE THEY ARE COACHING THEIR OWN TEAM!!! Not only is a travesty that this poll carries so much weight in this system (one third), it's a joke that they even publish this as a legitamit poll. Furthermore, how much "I'm going to screw this team or that team" do you think goes into this? Maybe not a lot, but even if it's just a little, it's too much.
That's pretty much it - I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that this is going to solve the problem of the BCS. It won't. But, as long as we're stuck with it, we might as well continue our tweaking. And finally, I'll leave you guys with this one last note: if you really, I mean REALLY want the powers that be to scap this system for a playoff, there's a couple of very easy things you can do. Stop watching the games on television and stop going to the games. I will make you this iron-clad lock of a guarantee - if college football fans around the country do that, the fat cats at the top will not waste one second in coming up with a viable playoff. Think you can do that?
Other Random Thoughts Inside and Outdside the Football World:
Happy Thanksgiving!
Big 12 South:
So here we are, the dreaded 3-way tie for the division title. The odds are currently in OU's favor here - although they trail Texas by the smallest fraction of a point, and their one remaining opponent is far superior to Texas' which should be enough to propel them past Texas in the BCS standings should they win in normal OU fashion. Additionally, OU has victories over TCU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference season - both solid teams. Hell, I know it doesn't mean much, but Cincy will likely win the Big East - yes, I know they suck, but when you see the words "victory against BCS conference champ" it carries some sort of weight. OU is definitely in a good spot, but I'll say it again - if I'm Stoops I'm putting more energy into putting on a show in Stillwater and less energy into the campaign trail...at least for now.
Texas Tech - These guys dropped like a stone and I was initially quite surprised at how far they fell. But, after thinking about it, I kind of think they got it right. Look, no one can question that Tech is a MUCH improved team this year all around. Harrell is playing better than any QB they've had there in the past; Crabtree is still a premier offensive player and their defense is head and shoulders better than past years. BUT, you can't lose like that, ever, and still be included in the upper echelon of teams. I'll be honest, I do honestly believe that had Tech beaten Texas by 20+ (like they should have), they wouldn't have fallen near as far. We've talked about this before - Tech outplayed Texas in just about every faucet of the game back in October - even being up by 19 at one point - and they had to win on the last play of the game. Tech was one dropped INT away from blowing that game after dominating Texas and again, I believe that crept into the minds of the human pollsters. Couple that with that loss against OU and there's your number 7 ranking and on the outside looking in. Of course, just as fast as they fell to 7, they can climb right back up to top 3 with an OU loss and a win in big 12 title game. We'll see.
Texas - Can you remember a team that has played so consistently well over the past decade and has had the conference championship allude them so consistently during that same time? Sheesh. Again, Texas could climb into the game this year, but it will take a Tech loss to Baylor coupled with an OU loss, or a very ugly OU win. I'm not banking on it. For now, I'll take my convincing win over the Aggies (more on this below) and my Fiesta Bowl against likely USC or Ohio State. It's hard to remember this, but the same question must be asked: who amongst us expected Texas to be in this position when the season started? I sure didn't and neither did you. I was picking at least 2 losses at this point in the season. What else is there to say here - gotta thump the aggies, but yet again Texas is bit by the bug of having to rely on other teams to pull an upset. Which brings me to...
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State:
I'll say it again - there are few (if any) teams who are playing as well as OU right now. And you just know they are brimming with confidence. Stoops has his big-game label back, Bradford is inching closer and closer to a heisman trophy, and they likely control their own destiny. With that said, they're going on the road in a huge rivalry game against a team who has consistently played them tough over the past several years. The difference in this game will be Okie State's ability to get something going offensively - something they weren't able to do in Lubbock. OU's defense still has some holes in it (regardless of what Tech's offensive line was trying to sell us) and Gundy's ability to exploit those holes will be key - he's got the talent to do it, but does he have the coaching to do so?
Defensively is another story - I'm not sure what Okie State's defense is going to be able to do against Bradford and company, but I know this - they did have some success in at least slowing down Mizzou's and Texas' offenses on the road and that's saying a lot. I also think that Okie State will take OU's premature campaigning a little personal and will use that as motivation to come out and prove that they belong in that discussion as well (even if just a little bit).
At the end of the day, as much as I want this or that to happen, I just think OU is on a roll. I'm taking the Sooners, but not in a blow out. Remember what we know about these Big 12 South "power teams": when they get away from home they are completely different teams.
Oklahoma - 38
Oklahoma State - 30
Texas A&M at Texas:
We all know how much of a nice guy that Mack is (hell, many of us have criticized him to no end for it...and rightfully so in some instances), but I think you're going to see something a little bit different this week. I have no evidence or insight to base this on, but here's my prediction: Mack and company will be looking for style points here....in a BIG kind of way. And frankly, I think they'll get it. There's plenty of motivation to go around here - the last two years' losses; hit on Colt two years ago; trash talking this year; big 12 championship possibly on the line; Colt heisman; etc., etc. Furthermore, I think you're going to see Muschamp take this opportunity to build on the defensive success of the Kansas game.
And to make matters worse (for aggie fan), A&M is T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E this year. I mean just horrible. If I'm the Texas coaching staff, and the Horns pull out a 10-point victory, I'm considering it a resounding failure. Look, I know it's a rivalry, but there's not one person out there who can honestly say that the Aggies belong on the same field as this Texas team this year. Aggies will improve, you know they will, but they are in transition limbo here and it's not pretty down in College Station. Furthermore (you heard me allude to this a few weeks ago) they are officially out of bowl eligibility - a lot of teams would use that as motivation to come out and play head and shoulders above themselves, but not this A&M team. I think these guys want nothing more than to end this nightmare season and go back to....whatever in the hell it is they do in Colllege Station. Texas cannot and will not come out flat. Not this time. Horns pitch a shut out.
Texas - 49
Texas A&M - 0
BCS:
Here we are, another college football season that's about to take any ounce of credibility that the BCS has, take it out back and literally beat it to death. There's a very fine line between any type of system/process that you have to continually tweak and optimize to improve for the better, and a system/process that is so consistently ineffective that you should scrap it. The BCS system is teetering on that line. If you're halfway a college football fan than chances are you've discussed, to some extent, all of the possible scenarios that could play out. A very real possibility is that we'll have a whole bunch of 1-loss teams - Texas, OU, Texas Tech, Florida and/or Alabama, USC, and Penn State - and a few undefeated Utah, Ball State, and Boise State teams. Two of those undefeateds are getting hosed...big time. And 4 of those 6 1-loss teams will get hosed. Tell me, of all of these teams, who DOESN'T deserve at least a shot at the title.
Whether they continue to "tweak" the sytem or just ultimately scrap it (not likely in my lifetime), there are, as always, a few "musts". First, it is beyond ridiculous that any team can compete for the national title if they don't even win their conference title. Please someone, I dare you, try and make an argument as to how that makes sense. Second, I'm not sure what goes into these Sagarin rankings, but they've got Tech ahead of...wait for it....OU!! Pat Forde of espn.com attempts to explain that the BCS uses a variation of this rating that attempts to minimize margin of victory. Whatever, I don't care what you use, there's absolutely no excuse for that. You can't use rankings, polls or whatever they are that eliminates that much of common sense and reality. Third, P-L-E-A-S-E stop using the Coach's poll as a legitamit (and pretty key) factor. You would hard-pressed to find anyone in this country who actually believes that these coach's actually take the time to watch these games to understand how good/bad the teams are. Why? BECAUSE THEY ARE COACHING THEIR OWN TEAM!!! Not only is a travesty that this poll carries so much weight in this system (one third), it's a joke that they even publish this as a legitamit poll. Furthermore, how much "I'm going to screw this team or that team" do you think goes into this? Maybe not a lot, but even if it's just a little, it's too much.
That's pretty much it - I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that this is going to solve the problem of the BCS. It won't. But, as long as we're stuck with it, we might as well continue our tweaking. And finally, I'll leave you guys with this one last note: if you really, I mean REALLY want the powers that be to scap this system for a playoff, there's a couple of very easy things you can do. Stop watching the games on television and stop going to the games. I will make you this iron-clad lock of a guarantee - if college football fans around the country do that, the fat cats at the top will not waste one second in coming up with a viable playoff. Think you can do that?
Other Random Thoughts Inside and Outdside the Football World:
- I read a rumor that Washington was trying to lure Les Miles away from LSU. I just laughed and laughed.
- Assuming Notre Dame gets abused by USC this weekend, I don't think Mr. Weiss is keeping his job. How in the world do you lose to Syracuse? Consider this, in Robinson's tenure (what, like 4 years now?), he's one less than 10 games...you don't want to be a team on that list. But Notre Dame is. Here's ND's dilemma - do you go and get your 5th or 6th coach in 10 years, or do you stick with a guy who's talents clearly haven't translated over to the college game? I think you let him go and I'll tell you why...
- He's also lost his fans. Can you imagine being a ND player on the sideline and getting snowballs thrown at you by your own home crowd? Inexcusable for the fans with a lot of the long-term blame going to Weiss and his lack of ability to bring that team/school together. He's too cocky and has a hard time luring 18-year old kids to play for him. Hell, if you're a top prospect and considering Notre Dame and you A) watch them lose to Syracuse by blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead, and B) just watched the home fans pelt the team with snowballs - are you going to seriously consider that over Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll, Mack Brown or Les Miles? Doubtful. All of that aside, I love watching the "high and mighty" Catholic football machine take it on the chin - ND football sucks. It's not the 1980s anymore and it's definitely not the 1920s.
- And don't you just love the way Holtz continues to say, every year, how this team is going to turn it around "next year". How this guy still brings home a paycheck is beyond me.
- I know there are a couple more games left, but if you're looking at the heisman race right now I think it comes down to this: do you give it to the guy with the gaudy numbers, who's on a hot streak RIGHT NOW. Or, do you give it to the guy who week in and week out has carried his team on this back and made plays (throwing or running) when his team needed him. I think that's your heisman difference there - Bradford or McCoy? And could you argue with either choice?
- Memo to USC and Ohio State fans - there's no such thing as a conference co-champion. If Oregon State and USC win out then they "share the Pac 10 title with Oregon State getting the nod for the bigger bowl by way of head-to-head match up". I choose to look at it like this - "USC, you lost to Oregon State. Beavers are the Pac 10 champs". Same goes for Ohio State and Penn State. PSU won Buckeye guy, you don't "share" conference titles. These are the same conferences that refuse to work in some sort of conference championship game and want their precious little Rose Bowl to themselves. I mean, at this point, other than OSU and USC, are we really missing anyting if we let them go play in their own sandbox? At least not now we aren't. These are the same people who insist on giving trophies to kids who don't win soccer games.
- One last thing on the BCS Texas fans. I heard this on the radio from an "expert" the other day who painted the picture in the most simplest terms I've ever heard: Assuming OU and Tx win out, you need 28 of the human voters to sway their pick of having OU above Texas. OR, you need a Florida loss and then only a handful of voters to sway their picks. That's it. How that is done I have no idea.
- Speaking of Florida - as much as I would love to see FSU knock off the Gators I just ain't feeling it - and it's not for lack of trying.
- Great game by Terrell Owens the other day - he still drops way too many balls.
- I would be curious to know where experts like Jaworski, Jackson, Berman and others would put Joe Flacco on their Rookie of the year list - he may be having one of the quietest great rookie years in a long time. Chris Johnson and Matt Ryan are certainly dominating the media, but watch Flacco play next time you can (he's the QB for the Ravens for those who don't know) - he's a very efficient QB.
- Got to watch the Utah game last weekend against BYU -the Utes are a good football team, but they could not hang with OU, Florida, Penn State or Texas. Not even close.
- Good Stewart Mandel article on BCS (I swear, I just read this after writing everything above): http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/11/24/bcs.trouble/1.html
- You can put me in that category of folks who think that all of this talk about where Lebron is going to play......in 2010 is beyond ridiculous. It's disrespectful to Cleveland, to Cavs fans and moreover, to Knicks fans. If I'm a season ticket holder for the Knicks, first and foremost I'm an idiot for paying that much to watch the Knicks. But, I'm also inclined to go into the offices and ask how much $$ am I getting back because you're mailing it in these next two years in order to land a superstar. I'll gladly pay up if Lebron is a Knick, but until then, you owe me. This is so bad for the game I think. And shame on espn, SI, Sporting News, etc. for perpetuating it like they have.
- Is there a tougher team in the NFL to figure out than the Saints?
- Yes, the Chargers. and is it at all possible that Merriman is the sole reason that the Chargers are so bad this year? It can't be, can it?
- The next 3 weeks will determine if Jack Del Rio is going to be back coaching the Jags next season - write it down. If they can turn it around the next 3 weeks he's back. If not, he's the day after the last game of the year.
- I'm not going to begin to entertain the though of the Lakers (or anyone) winning 70 games this year, but man-o-man does that look like a dominant team early.
- Tough loss for the Runnin' Horns last night against Notre Dame - would have been nice to have that win (against a top 10 team) and to have a game against UNC in our resume. Oh well - at least we get Oregon(?) in the consolation game.
- And why do we have consolation games in these tournaments? How unmotivating is that?
- Who in the world is going to stop the New York Football Giants this year? Certainly not Dallas - and that leaves no one else in the NFC. What a team that is. The rushing yards they put up on Baltimore was stupid.
Happy Thanksgiving!
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 2:00 PM
1 comments
