Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Saturday AND Sunday Football Now

Welcome into the fold NFL, great to have you back. As mentioned in my posting earlier this week, I'm going to start doing a diary of my maiden voyage into the madness that is fantasy football and this week will mark my first entry. I imagine the subsequent ones will sound a lot like this, "Dear diary, let me tell you all the ways why I suck". Hopefully not, but my expectations are low.

Before I dive into my games of the week, let me hit on a few topics of interest.

Miami/FSU:
If you missed this game on Monday night, kick yourself. Hard. I'll go so far as to say that this may be one of the top 3-5 games of the year. Six lead changes. Three in the fourth quarter. Last-second play. Does it get any better than that?

In all seriousness, this was a great game and one that will go a long way to help both programs. Unfortunately someone had to lose this one (sorry 'Noles), but what a great win for Coach Shannon and this Miami team. Although both teams showed some glaring issues, those two teams have some speed on them. If you haven't already, circle October 3 on your calendar - that's when Oklahoma (hopefully for Sooner nation with Bradford back) will visit Miami. OU has plenty of time to right the ship in many areas themselves, but this is going to be a tough match for the Sooners.

Anyway, after an abysmal start to the season for the ACC (see my previous post), the league got some saving grace with this instant classic. Kudos FSU/Miami, welcome back to the CFB show.

Oklahoma:
Meanwhile, in other news, Bob Stoops reports that he's had a combined 7 hours of sleep in the last 6 nights. What a kick in the groin for these guys. In my view, the three largest issues facing this team this year (in this order) are: 1) Loss of Jermaine Gresham for the year, 2) offensive line, and 3) Bradford. Why, you ask, would I have Bradford loss/uncertainty third on that list? Because without Gresham and a competent offensive line, it won't matter if Elway is back there.

I said this to folks after the OU game and I found no one who agreed with me - even if Bradford had stayed in the game, I still think BYU wins that game. Go back and watch the first half (with Bradford) and tell me what it is you see that makes you think OU was going to win that game. And if you're going to give the "Bradford being out was the only reason they lost" well consider that BYU was without their VERY good starting RB. Nonetheless, the Cougars were absolutely dominating both lines. Without all the time Bradford had last year to throw and without his reliable security blanket Gresham, it doesn't matter what receivers they have. I guarantee you this - you're going to see an OU team that focuses a hell of a lot more on its running backs and short, slant or out patterns. No more of this having 20 seconds to throw a 40-yard bomb down field. OU will get their wins the next two weekends and the bye week before the trip to Miami is simply a God send at this point. I say OU finishes 9-3 this year with a trip to the Holiday or Cotton bowl. I'll even take it one further - relatively speaking, this year and next year will be "down" years for the Sooners - next year they lose their RBs, QB and their entire defense. When I say down year, I literally mean 9 wins (8 at worst).

Either way, if I'm Bradford, I'm thinking more and more about the next level. If he's not talking to at least one person about this and how it could affect his status, I'd be surprised. And one more note - let me remind you Horns fans who are happy with this whole predicament: 1) you WANT the Sooners to be good this year when you beat them. 2) Five years ago, Oklahoma lost their first game of the year to TCU. They then lost to Texas. They THEN won the Big 12. Soo, let's not jump to any conclusions just yet.

Now, on to the games - just touching on a few (as they aren't more than a few worth touching on)....

Texas at Wyoming:
Believe it or not, there is some reason for concern as a whole for the Longhorns. Injuries and Academic eligibility. Starting offensive guard Michael Huey and starting linebacker Jared Norton will stay home this weekend, both nursing injuries sustained this past Saturday. It's unclear how long they'll be out, but never a good sign this early, especially when you're talking about offensive lineman and ankle injuries.

Meanwhile, our highly touted and deep secondary will be without 2 starters due to academic eligibility (along with receiver Brandon Collins) - and these guys may be out all year. That is really not good.

What is good is that Texas gets Wyoming this week, Tech at home next week (payback game AND the Red Raiders are rebuilding so to speak) and UTEP the following week, followed by a bye week and then Colorado at home. Texas doesn't NEED all of it's starters to play 75% of the snaps in those games. And a bye week before jumping into the teeth of conference play will go a long way. After that, the run gets a bit tougher.

Now about the game - I'll tell you this. I don't know much about Wyoming, but they are bringing a first-year coach who actually came from the Big 12 (Mizzou O-coordinator if I'm not mistaken) and he's brought the spread offense with him. This will give Texas a really good opportunity to build some depth and experience in that secondary (and everywhere really). And besides, even if Texas started 60% of their backups, they should still roll these guys.

I'm not expecting much from this game - this isn't to say I think Texas is going to lay an egg or anything because they're not, but I suspect we'll see a lot of the same game plan we saw in the UL-Monroe game, with emphasis on tightening things up. I don't want them opening up the playbook too much more this early, but I would like to see a few new wrinkles. I'd also like to see our defense step it up just a bit too - gotta keep 'em below 20. Have to.

Texas - 55
Wyoming - 16

Notre Dame at Michigan:
Unfortunately this game is on at the same time as the Texas game and I never thought I'd be saying this in the second week, but I'll be going back and forth quite regularly. Don't worry, I'm not jumping on Lou Holtz's idiot wagon proclaiming the Irish as "back", but given what both teams showed us in week 1, it's worth keeping an eye on. I still say both will end up right around 7-5 (maybe 9-3 for Irish with such weak schedule), but what ever.

What I'm anxious to see is how both defenses respond. Both defensive performances last weekend were certainly positive signs, but let's be honest, those opponents didn't present any real challenge. Both offenses should present a far greater challenge.

I think the most intriguing aspect of this game is what the losing coach will face in his respective schools. With that, I think I'm rooting for Rich Rod to turn up the heat on that enormous hot seat underneath Charlie Weiss' ass. And I'll be honest, I think the home team Wolverines are going to pull this out and thereby creating the largest 180 in the fan base in the history of sports. I can see it now - the students storming the field, putting Rich Rod on their shoulders and carrying him around the stadium. Rrrrriiiiiiight. Either way - home team takes it in a shocker.

Michigan - 31
Notre Dame - 27

UCLA at Tennessee:
Not unlike the above UM/ND game, these two teams are coming off games that caused some to turn their heads and raise an eyebrow. Not so fast my friends though, much like Florida spanking College of Charleston, they didn't tell us a ton. I worry that UCLA's Pac 10 defense will struggle greatly against a pretty good Tenn offense. I have a pretty good idea about Tennessee this year - they'll put up some yards, but I see a lot of brain farts and turnovers, costing them a ton of points over the season. I think they're defense will be pretty good because it usually is pretty good and Monte Kiffin knows what he's doing.

It's UCLA who I have no idea about. I said this last year, I like the coaches they've got, but I just don' think they have the experience/talent just yet. They're starting a freshman QB who threw (wait for it) 2 picks against San Diego State. Sooo, there's that. But don't forget, Norm Chow is their offensive coordinator.

I'm going to go with the home team in this one - say what you will about Lane Kiffin and his shenanigans, but I do think they've got a better team and they should have over 100,000 fans making some noise. Remember the last time a Pac 10 team (Cal) came into Knoxville? It was a royal ass whoopin' and knocked the Bears out of the "these guys may just make some noise this year" category.

Tennessee - 39
UCLA - 27

USC at Ohio State:
Obviously the game of the weekend. The consensus is that this is OSU's year to make a statement, knock off the mighty Trojans and gain some of that lost respect. As I said earlier this week, if the Ohio State game against Navy was a true indication of this team than you're going to see something very similar to last year's 35-3 shellacking. I also said that I think we'll see a much tighter, better Buckeye team, but I still don't know if it's going to be good enough to knock of Southern Cal.

I will say this though, USC is bringing in a freshman QB to start/play in his second game and oh yeah, it just happens to be at the horseshoe.....at night.....on national television. We will most certainly learn a lot about Mr. Barkley on Saturday night. The good news is he's got a pretty good running back in Joe McKnight who put up some big rushing yards last weekend. And from the looks of the Buckeye rush defense against Navy, that's got the defensive coaches a bit nervous.

I've thought about this a lot this week and have honestly wavered on this - too much knew-ness to USC's bunch to stroll into Columbus for a night game and just waltz through them. On the flip side, you've got an OSU team who hasn't beaten a relevant opponent since strolling into Austin and beating up on the defending champ Longhorns. Little history/irony note - that game was also the "Welcome to Big-Time College Football" moment for one Colt McCoy. But I digress...

If you read Mandel's column on cnnsi.com this week you'll see that he's starting the media love fest over USC a bit early...and a bit hard this year. (Side note: I sent him an email asking to please calm down...it was San Jose State for crying out loud). BUT, as tough as a challenge as this may be, my faith in Ohio State has reached the same level as my faith in our Government actually doing something worth a sh*t - none. If there is a more perennially overrated team in college football, I don't know who it is. With that, I'll take the safe bet here.

USC - 33
Ohio State - 20

Fantasy Football Diary Week 1:
Well, here we go. Season kicks off tonight (Thursday). I've got the Steelers defense so I'll be glued to the tube tonight. QB, Defense, kicker and tight end are set. I'm debating the "real" scoring positions. Here's what I had for my core scoring guys.

WR: Steve Smith (vs. Philly), Percy Harvin (at Cleveland), and Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Niners).

RB: Steve Slaton (vs. Jets), and Pierre Thomas (vs. Lions)

QB: Donovan McNabb (vs. Carolina).

Looks like Pierre Thomas is hurt and I can't imagine the Saints taking a chance when they are playing the Lions. I had Marshawn Lynch as one of my backups and who knows when he'll be back. Sooo, I went and picked up Ray Rice (Ravens playing Chiefs) with hopes that he can come big. I think by mid October he's getting the bulk of the carries over McGahee, but I digress.

I'm also looking at swapping Steve Smith (the Carolina one by the way) with Anthony Gonzalez as the Colts are playing Jacksonville who may be more suspect than Michael Jackson's doctor. I do like Steve Smith...a lot, but I just don't know what I'm going to get with Delhomme. Someone's gotta throw it to him, right? On the flip side, I think Peyton Manning may be able to get the ball to Gonzalez a time or two. Plus, Gonzalez has upped his catches steadily since he's been in the league and with Marvin "I'm a nice guy, but run a shady night club in Philly" Harrison gone, he should get ample opportunities. To hell with it, I'm doing it. Week 1 starters include:

QB: McNabb
RB: Steve Slaton and Ray Rice
WR: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald and Anthony Gonzalez
TE: Kevin Boss
Kicker: Ryan Longwell (with a first name like that, he's got to be good...right?)
Defense: Steelers

Already halftime of the game and I already love this whole fantasy football thing. I may change my tune after 6 weeks or so, but I'm loving it.

NFL Notes:
  • I'd say Kerry Collins is doing his best to prove those who are saying no chance he repeats last year's success are wrong. Hafltime against the Steelers (in Pittsburgh) and he's 13-21 for 150+ yards with a TD and a pick. It's early, but that's a hell of a start against this defense.
  • Pretty good opening night game here in Pittsburgh - tied game with just over 2 mins to play. My first thought was Pittsburgh is making some good plays, but they look a tad rusty (as I expect all teams will look rusty). My second thought is Tennessee's defense looks REAL good. Albert who?
  • Let's get this out of the way now - my super bowl pick (why the hell not?) is Green Bay over New England. Write it down.
  • Bill Simmons noted this interesting (disturbing?) little fact in this week's column: Plaxico Burress accidentally shot himself in the leg while illegally carrying a handgun in a nightclub and got a jail sentence that was 30 TIMES LONGER than Donte Stallworth who accidentally killed a pedestrian while driving drunk (and allegedly high). Another stellar endorsement for our wonderful justice system.
  • Classic stat graphic NBC just put up on the screen. First play of the drive for the Steelers with a 1:30 to play and Big Ben completes his first past. Stat at bottom reads: Roethlisberger 1/1 for 12 yards this drive. Guys, let's give it a few plays before we start putting up "this drive" stats on the screen. Just an ounce of credit for us viewers would be nice.
  • While you're writing down my predictions - write this one down. The Steelers will not be returning to the super bowl.
  • Put me down as one who believes that given our current economic environment, the NFL should back off on it's blackout rules - especially in Detroit where I think they're looking at an unemployment rate of just under 118%. You can't expect blue-collar, unemployed folks to pay white-collar prices for tickets, parking, concessions, etc.
  • How in the world are the Bengals favored by more than 4 points against the Broncos. I know Denver's off season has seemed like a bad episode of the Oakland Raiders' show, but really? The Bengals? Put me down for next month's mortgage payment on the Broncos covering.
  • This is not an NFL note, but did anyone see the Georgia Tech/Clemson game? From the sounds of it, it may rival the above-mentioned Miami/FSU game. Great start to the year for CFB.
  • Just because I'm watching this game live as I type this, another observation on the Steelers - Big Ben looks a little jumpy and ancy in the pocket. He's getting all sorts of time from his O-line, but he's got happy feet. I don't know, he looks kind of like some chick came out of nowhere and accused him of rape like 3 years ago. You know the look I'm talking about, right?
  • This the only time you'll ever hear me side with a player in this situation - I'm with you Seymour, I wouldn't show up in Oakland either.
  • Speaking of Oakland, who's still buying season tickets there?

Non-Sports Thoughts:
  • It's 2009, how have we not found a better vending machine where chips don't get caught in those little twirling spirals? I wonder if anyone has gone completely postal (I mean, like throwing sh*t around the room) when this has happened. Can you blame them? What's most amazing is like 86% of the time, shaking the machine wildly won't get them to fall. I had a run in with some cheddar Sun chips that got a little wild. I'm in our lobby shaking this machine side-to-side doing all I could to will those chips to drop and by God they wouldn't fall. I finally uttered, "damnit, to hell with it". Little did I know the Asian lunch bunch was silently watching me with the same blank stare on all of their faces. If you weren't me, I bet it was classic.
  • I'll give it to Brett Favre - the Sears commercials with him waffling on buying a TV is pretty damn funny. Give the guy credit, he can make fun of himself pretty good - gotta respect that.
  • Memo to current and future congressmen/women - when the President (whomever it is) is addressing Congress, you really can't shout out "You're a Liar!" at any point during his speech...or ever really. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mr. Wilson may not be continuing his tenure as a congressman after this session. Who knows, I'm just guessing. You take one on the chin from your own party like that and it can't bode well.
  • My good buddy Vassberg sent me this YouTube clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsAa9VmwOaI) from a parliamentary debate across the pond. I'll tell you what I told him - within the first 20 seconds I had at least 15 jokes swirling around in my head, but couldn't put any of them together because my head literally exploded. Is this real? Is this how these folks govern? I love it - I may move over there and live for like 2 years just to get a closer look. I love how polite they sound even when they're being sh*tty. I will watch this at least 13 more times before the weekend.
  • I can't wait until hunting season. I'm starting to get that itch.
  • One more CFB note here - check out the comment from my last post to see what a hard-core aggie thinks about Texas A&M's chances this year. Keep in mind my old buddy and colleague Bud is a little...passionate about his aggies. Good news Bud, I've added another aggie to the list - welcome Creed Ford. My message to the two of you is this - the Aggies will replace the Baylor Bears as the cellar dweller of the Big 12 South this year. I'm not saying it sticks, but I think it happens.
  • Dear God, please stop sending me your stupid updates on Mafia Wars on facebook - it is sooooo stupid.
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend.

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