football, Football, FOOTBALL

Let me just get this out on the table right now. This isn't your run of the mill college or pro football preview. This is an ALL THINGS FOOTBALL edition. So if you haven't got the stones for this, if you don't have what it takes to dig in and get through this in one sitting, I suggest you stop now, set it aside and come back when you're man enough. Otherwise, grab that cup of coffee or crack open that beer - whatever it's going to take because this is no walk in the park post. This is THE post. The only blog posting you should care about....until my next one comes out. Let's get it on....

College Football
As you may have noticed over the last few years, my passion for college football has waned slightly (aaaand cue my wife rolling her eyes.). Settle down though, I still love the games and am looking forward to what should be a pretty good slate of games - especially early. My growing lackadaisical attitude towards the game has nothing to do with the match ups themselves, rather the system as a whole. Meaningless pre-season polls (and I still say we'd all be talking just as much college football in August without them), beauty pageant heisman races, stat padding, etc., etc. Not one program is immune from it. But nonetheless, it's still college football so it's a hell of a lot of fun to watch. So with that, here are my thoughts, wishes, assumptions and flat-out guesses about the upcoming college football season:

Texas Longhorns:
Did you expect me to start anywhere else? I'll be honest - it *seems* to be setting up as an eerily similar scenario as we had in '05. You've got the flashy, high-octane team in Florida with their perfect, pretty-boy QB and an NFL-type roster. You've got a Texas team with a VERY good QB who has been and will continue to be second fiddle with the big-time, national media. He's leading a team full of very good players, but none of them will really be talked about in that aforementioned national media machine. Most folks have already made up their minds that a certain team from a certain sunshine and beach state will win it all (and even more are pretty sure they'll face that rugged, but not-as-good team from that Lone Star state). And to top it all off, this game is in the Rose Bowl - and as storied of a history as the Rose Bowl has, what's one of the first things you think of? VY tip-toeing into the corner of that end zone. I'm just saying, tell me it doesn't feel very similar...

All that aside, it really is looking to be a strong year for these longhorns. Offensively - forget about it. Loaded at receiver, loaded at running back, loaded at offensive line and an all-world QB returning who's on pace to utterly own the Texas record books. There are, however, two concerns that I've got that won't necessarily cost us a game or two, but could prove to be tough to overcome as the season progresses. First, depth at defensive line. Muschamp recently moved an offensive lineman to the defensive line to help shore up that department. Evidently he's a hugely athletic kid who has lost a ton of weight so it sounds promising, but that's still a pretty big mind shift. We'll see, but I'm just concerned because there's one thing you can count on with every Texas team - at least one defensive lineman will miss time with an injury. Usually not serious injuries, but look it up - it's a given.

Second, if I'm not mistaken, I don't think we have one bona-fide, healthy tight end on the team. One of our younger TEs who was looking very good in summer workouts was lost for the season with reoccurring stingers in his neck. (Sidebar: I think Finley would be a junior or senior right now - if he were here I'd put Texas in the championship game and I'd write it in permanent pen) I do love me some tight end, but this is less of a concern given the stable of receivers.

All in all, I see a pretty darn good year for the Horns. As always, the match up with OU in early October will be a test (although I do think that Texas wins this game in easier fashion than last year's slug fest) and the trip to Stillwater will be a battle (sort of), but other than that, the schedule sets up nicely for a championship run. I'll be frank, anything short of an undefeated season and a Big 12 title will be a huge disappointment.

More Random CFB Thoughts:

• Teams that finish the season lower than pre-season ranking (in the SI poll at least): OU, USC, Okie State, Alabama, and Oregon
• Teams that finish the season higher than pre-season ranking: LSU, North Carolina, Florida State
• Teams that finish about where they are: Florida, Texas, Ole Miss, Ohio State and Utah
• How is it possible that Jordan Shipley wasn't on Sporting News' top 25 receivers in the country list? I don't mind him "flying under the radar" so to speak, but this is just plain negligent.
• I just don't see OU doing what they did last year with a predominately new offensive line. Bradford still has lots of offensive weapons (especially at running back and tight end), but he won't touch his numbers from last year without having all day to throw - and that just doesn't happen when you replace a unit like that.
• And OU does have a bit of a tougher schedule this year - they play BYU to start the season. This is a good game to schedule - you get points for a good team, but you get that team early so they likely haven't come together quite yet. They also have games at Miami, Texas in Dallas, at Kansas, at Nebraska and at Tech. I don't see how they come through that slate unscathed.
  
• I think Sergio Kindle is on a mission to prove a point....to NFL scouts. Whatever, as long as he continues to improve on his sacks, I'm down with it.
• I know USC always reloads, but I just don't see how they are able to replace 8 or 9 defensive starters without some growing pains throughout the year - I'm not calling this quite yet, but I don't think they get out of Columbus with a win.
  
• Yet again Beamer proves to have the largest stones in the big-time college game. VaTech's non-conference opponents: Alabama on neutral site, Marshall and Nebraska at home, and East Carolina on the road. That coupled with an increasingly competitive ACC and the Hokies just might find themselves in the hunt come December. Unfortunately they lost their starting RB from last year, but they are returning 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense. They'll be good and I say they beat a hole in Bama that first game.
  
• I don't think Okie State lives up to expectations this year. I don't believe in Mike Gundy at all. They do have their starting skill players back and they've got a schedule that's gotta be rated one of the easiest in the country, but I'm going on instinct. They have no road games in September, 2 in October at A&M and Baylor, and 2 in November at Iowa State and at OU. That's a pretty sweet road schedule - other than OU, Baylor will be the tough one there. Here's the deal on these guys - they lost half their defense...and their defense wasn't really that good. Even at home, they're going to have to contend with Texas' offense, Tech's offense and Missouri's offense. It won't be easy - I say they lose 4 games this year and are out of the top 15 when all is said and done. They get Georgia to start the year. Good luck with that.
  
• How in the world is Alabama going to score points this year? I had mentioned (2 years ago) that when Saban got to Bama, give him 2 years and he'll have them competing for a title. Let's make that 3. Losing that much of your offensive starters is tough on anyone, much less someone playing in the SEC against those stout defenses.
  
• I know the Buckeyes have Pryor back, but after that, they only have 3 other starters from last year's offense. I have no doubt this kid will be better, but the others around him are question marks. But hey, it's Tressell and it's Ohio State - they've played 3 straight BCS bowl games (pulling an OU though, have lost all 3), they'll be fine. If they get by USC on Sept. 12, they'll be in the driver's seat to (moan) head back to the title game. However, OSU has to know that if it comes down to them and 2 other undefeated teams, they'll be getting the non-title Rose Bowl birth. But hey, that's OK, I thought all those Big 10 assholes and their Pac 10 buddies cared more about that anyway.
  
• Keep your eyes on Georgia Tech this year - I know that's hard in this part of the country, but pay attention to them. Just trust me...
• Can you call LSU a dark horse? I don't think so, but considering their conference, I'm calling them my dark horse. I think LSU crushes Ole Miss and just may be able to challenge Florida in the Swamp. Don't be surprised to see a rematch of those two in the title game.
  
• One more thing on Florida - on paper, these guys look utterly unbeatable. They return everyone who ever played a single snap on defense last year and of course, Jesus' second cousin, Tebow. No Percy Harvin though - not a giant deal, but don't forget just how important he was to that offense.
• I don't see how Bradford comes close to repeating as heisman and I'll tell you why. First, as I mentioned above, there's no chance he's going to repeat last year's yards with a brand new line. Second, he won it last year, but the irony is that the two best teams he played against (Texas and Florida), he lost and he was outplayed by both QBs. And if Texas beats OU again this year, he'll be out of it altogether. He may still show up on boards, but he won't win it. At the same time, I can't imagine Colt repeats his percentage completion phenomenon next year either - but, if he still breaks the old record (i.e., if he ends the season being 1 and 2 for completion %), you absolutely have to give it to him. We won't see that record touched for a long, long time.
  
• I don't see how Penn State continues it's run from last year - they lose 7 starters on both offense and defense. They do get the Buckeyes at home this year, but I don't think that will matter much.
  
• Pay attention to this final one here - I'm saying "surprise", not "shock". The Michigan Wolverines will surprise a lot of folks this year, including me.
  

NFL
Now THIS is what I'm excited about. Every year I love the NFL more and more and I'm super pumped for this year as there are so many great (sort of) story lines and it would appear that parity may continue to thrive in the league. Can't wait. Here are the most intriguing things I'll be looking at heading into the season.

Favre:
Jesus, can we officially call this guy a flat-out liar? I don't think that's a stretch at this point. Look, it's clear Minnesota has zero confidence in Jackson and it's also clear they're relegating Sage to backup without any real discussion or competition. They've also got John David Booty whom they drafted out of USC so that gives them 4 QBs including Favre. It's also clear that Favre came in to start and run this offense. Period. So what does it mean? A couple things: 1) Jackson will not be a Viking when opening weekend comes around. Write it down. He'll be traded. 2) Brad Childress' career is riding on this QB, this year. If they don't win the division and make the conference championship game, he's gone. No ifs, ands or buts. And 3) In one more year or two, Minnesota will be looking for it's QB of the future with absolutely nothing in the cupboard.

I obviously have no idea what Viking players think about this, but I'd be a tad miffed if I was busting my ass in camp after this whole thing blew over (and after my coach told me it was over), and then told Favre's coming on the last day of training camp. That sucks.

Finally, Favre has a small tear in his rotator cuff of his throwing shoulder that was discovered in his surgery. I'm not a doctor and not saying this will bother him, but......he's 40, this will bother him. Good luck Minnesota - pretty big gamble.

Vick:
So I'll just come right out with it - I love this move on a number of levels. First off, it's a low-risk move for the Eagles. Of course it is a huge PR gamble/juggernaut to contend with, but a low-risk move in terms of affect on the team and the business. Second, it allows the Eagles to establish (or strengthen perhaps, don't know the history) their ties with some good animal organizations in Philadelphia. Third, it immediately brings exponentially more attention to the topic of animal cruelty and how folks can help stop it. And what if you now had Michael Vick there as the spokesperson - take that increased attention and watch it turn into action. Everyone can preach about how animal abuse and neglect is wrong and horrible (who wouldn't?), but imagine if the spokesperson for this was someone who was entrenched in it for most of his life and turned himself around. You telling me, PETA and Humane Society folks, that you wouldn't want to grab hold of that and use it to drive your cause? If not, you're stupid because you will miss an enormous opportunity. And just in case you fancy yourself a strong Christian - what do you think old Jesus would say about it if you could ask for his thoughts? I've got a good idea. But I digress - point is this, great move by the Eagles - kudos to them and I hope to God it works out for both parties.

NOW, on the to the other main reason I think this was a good idea. Imagine it's November - Vick has played some in about 6 games and knows his role and has grown his confidence. Eagles are playing in Dallas. It's the fourth quarter and Eagles are down by 2 on the Cowboys 40 yard line. McNabb comes to the line with Desean Jackson wide right, Jeremy Macklin wide left, Bryant Westbrook as the back and Mike Vick in the slot. How the hell do you defend that? If that scenario ever happens - write it down, one of those guys I mentioned is scoring a touchdown. More importantly, the addition of Vick to that scenario gives Philly substantially more options. Trust me, this will whole thing will work out well.

Fantasy Football:
I know many of you are big-time fantasy players, but believe it or not, I've never once gotten involved in a league. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, I can't imagine spending that much time on fantasy freaking football. Second, I love the more traditional pick 'em games (I have nothing to substantiate this, but the Nemetz pool is my favorite....although I never win at it...damnit). I also worry that if I start playing and getting into fantasy football it will change the way I watch games. I love just about any NFL game (sans any team from Ohio and the NFC West) you can find on TV. I don't have satellite or NFL package, I'm fine with whatever games is on. Fantasy is more about players and individual stats - I don't want to watch games like that!

Yet the teeth of fantasy have sunk into me and this year I begin my maiden voyage into this so-called fantasy world. The good news is I'm in a league with other beginners (mostly) and good buddies so it should work out. And in honor of this, Hoos (who instigated this whole thing by the way) sent a "Fantasy Football 2009 Guide" (another first me - a fantasy preview issue)...and it's over 250 f'ng pages!! Are you kidding me? When I first looked at it I said to myself no way I'm going through this. But guess what happened....I started going through it and folks, I'm here to say, it's like crack. I've spent 2 hours each the last two nights going through this, trying to understand draft strategies, looking at schedules, looking at stats from past years, who's in contract years, etc., etc. It's both ridiculous and fascinating at the same time. My strategy is to put my work in up front so I can limit my thinking each week to less than 20 minutes when I'm naming starters.

So my draft is tomorrow night (Friday) and I've got what I think is a sound strategy along with a mock draft and my top players by position. I'm still finishing it all out, but I think I'm in good shape. Or not. Hell, I don't know, but it's more fun than I want to admit.... You can be sure I'll keep you all posted as I stumble through this virgin season.
Other Random NFL Thoughts:

• So far, I think I'm the only one who thinks that Roy Williams is going to have a good year in Dallas (and I think Romo is going to be thankful to have him). First off, Williams made a pro bowl playing in Detroit. That's something these days. Second, he's been in Detroit for crying out loud - let's hold off on the work ethic comments until we've given him a full off season (which he's had) and a full year without TO (which he will have).
  
• If healthy, I think Felix Jones could have 1800 all-purpose yards this year. At least.
• Another big topic I didn't get to above is Tomlinson. I think any chance the Chargers have at making the super bowl rest on this guy's production. I love Sproles, but it's unrealistic to expect him to pick up LT's carriest and maintain his production. I hate the Chargers, but I'm rooting for LT to have a great year.
  
• Denver might go 4-8 this year. Good thing they play in such a weak division.
  
• I think Michael Griffin makes a pro bowl this year, playing corner for the Titans.
  
• I think Brett Favre is going to absolutely LOVE Percy Harvin - especially when he's dumping it to him out of the backfield and he adds 60 yards a game to Favre's stats.
  
• I think it's feast or famine for Tom Brady this year - he either tosses 4,000+ yards and 30+ TDs, or he goes way below what we've come to expect from him of late. It won't be in between....and I think I'm leaning more towards the first one.
  
• Breakout Players This Year: Anthony Gonzalez (Colts), Lee Evans (Bills), Jeremy Macklin (Eagles), Pierre Thomas (Saints)
• I wanted to put Aaron Rogers on that list, but not sure it would constitute a breakout year per se. I do see him having a huge year though.
  
• Looks like Plaxico Burress is going to get 2 years in the hole. I'll be honest, it seems like kind of a harsh penalty for a victimless crime (I don't count him as the victim). You can't lock someone away for something that *might* have happened. BUT, with that said, when I consider the idiot factor here, I can live with it. If you're to stupid to know how to carry a gun without shooting yourself, you probably deserve to be removed from society for a bit. Either way, hope you enjoyed that NFL career.
  
• Brandon Marshall is a piece of crap. Answer me this - what coach out there is banging on the GM door saying, "get me this guy quick". This would only be half-way acceptable if you're the Rams, Chiefs or Niners. Hell, Niners could trade Crabtree's rights and another player/future draft pick to Denver for Marshall and get the lesser headache before all is said and done. His main problem (other than his childish attitude) is he's a suspension threat. He clearly seems to hold that mindset that so many young, stupid millionaires have which is "I can do what I want". Warning Marshall - today's NFL is not a democracy - it's a dictatorship and the axe is falling. A lot.
  
• NFC North final standings: Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions
• NFC East final standings: Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Skins
• NFC West final standings: Seahawks, Cardinals, Niners, Rams
• NFC South final standings: Falcons, Saints, Panthers Bucs
• AFC North final standings: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns
• AFC East final standings: Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
• AFC West final standings: Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos
• AFC South final standings: Colts, Texans, Titans, Jags
• Two teams that I see taking a turns in opposite directions because of one man are the Ravens and Jets. I think Rex Ryan's departure, coupled with the loss of a couple of key players and aging, will definitely affect the Ravens' defensive success this year. I don't think we'll see a drop to the bottom 10 or anything, but I certainly do see a top 5 defense. On the flip side, I think you see a big upswing for the Jets, especially at defense this year. They need it badly and I think Ryan will most certainly deliver.
  
• Look for the AFC East to be extremely competitive this year. TO will open things up for the other players in Buffalo (Lynch and Evans) and keep an eye out for Pat White running some wildcat formations in Miami - that could be fun. Ronnie Brown is healthy, Ricky Williams looks like Ricky of old and this team looks like they could pick up where they left off last year.
• Interesting thing about Ricky - he looks pretty damn good, especially towards the tail end of last year and this pre-season as well. Do you think 2 years off of football had any affect? I think so. At his age, most backs would be at the tail end of their careers and certainly on the decline. This doesn't appear to be the case with Ricky. This could be seen as optimistic for Eagles fans re: Vick.
  

Non-Football Thoughts and Observations

• So after Tiger putted his way to second at the PGA last weekend, I quickly put my head under the couch cushions and screemed for about 10 minutes. I then realized, "huh, the sky actually didn't fall. how about that." I thought for sure either that was going to happen, or Dave Fehrety's head was going to explode. Much to my surprise neither did. What do you know.
  
• As amazing as Yang's shot was on 18 of that tournament (ballsy and perfectly played - love it), Tiger blew this tournament with his putting. If he makes just 3 of the 64 putts he missed inside of ten feet, he wins. Easily.
  
• I've meant to send this out for so long now, but I've got to share it - good friend, former longhorn and avid Rant reader Charlie Brown has spent the summer (more or less) touring America in an RV. Admit it, most of you would love to do something like that. I've included the link to his site - whether you know Charlie or not, it's a great read. Click on his blog posting and read along - some great pics in there too. It's a lot of fun. Enjoy. http://www.mylifeinanrv.com/
  
• Here's what I've determined about the healthcare debate. For the most part, this debate is made up of 2 sides: One side wants to push something through as fast as they possibly can, regardless of how sound the plan is, so they can have political clout. They're like kids at a party swinging blindly at a pinata. I can't see at all, but I know if I keep swinging, something may happen it will probably be great for everyone. The second group of folks are those that want absolutely nothing to do with having the conversation to begin with. In between is Joe Q. Public who doesn't know sh*t about sh*t, but he/she will regurgitate anything that spurns their fears (regardless of how much, if any fact, it's based on). Bottom line - we're all screwed because nothing will get done and Insurance companies and doctors will continue to work out the charges and pass on the cost increases to employers and employees. Good luck affording healthcare in the next 10 years middle class.
  
• Nancy Pelosi is to Obama what Karl Rove and Dick Cheney were to Bush - giant weights around their necks that do little but to make their lives more difficult.
  
• I always said this right here in this blog during the election - the democrats will find a way to screw this whole thing up - they always do. Think about the train wreck that was the Bush administration, and accompanying Congress. That took 8 years to screw things up as bad as those guys did. I think the Dems are trying to break that record and do it in just under 2 years. In short, the Democrats have been an absolute disaster in their first eight months of leadership. If there isn't pressure behind the scenes to remove Pelosi, I would be shocked. It's not all her fault, but she seems intent on doing nothing more than shoving it in the GOP face that they've got the majority and now we'll do what we want. Nice.
  
• New season of Mad Men is now underway - haven't seen the first episode left, but it's snuggled tightly into my DVR for the weekend. Super pumped.
• I love Austin and even love our summers here as there's plenty to do outside. But Lord, this heat is getting ridiculous. They say the winter will be warm (I can't imagine winter warmer than it was last year - I was at Barton Springs more than once between Dec and Jan) and very wet. I hope so - it's going to take something biblical to bring us out of this drought anytime soon.
  
• Usain Bolt is unreal. I don't know what else to say about it.
  
• Waiting for your company to formally be acquired may be one of the more brutal experiences I've dealt with in a long, long time. If ever.
  
• I simply do not get Twitter. I can't imagine caring enough about something (or someone I should say) to where I would follow their random, one-line thoughts. What an extraordinary waste of time. Some argue that you get news faster on Twitter. Great, how much faster? And does it matter? Does it really matter that someone learned that Michael Jackson died 5 or 10 minutes before you heard it on the radio, saw it on TV or read it on the web? You aren't going to get news you otherwise wouldn't get, you're just going to get it faster....and you'll actually get the story, and not just a sound bite. Take a look at the healthcare debacle going on, do you think the "soundbite" or slogan communications are helping or hurting this? Mark my words - within 3 years, Twitter will be a dead fad. Facebook, LinkedIn, eHarmony, Indaba Music - these are all good social vehicles. You can keep up with friends/family around the globe with pics, music, videos, news, etc., help connect with professionals and look for job opportunities, you can share and make music, etc., etc. These all have value (and business models for making money). Twitter does not. Give it 3 years tops - Joe Q. Public has the attention span of a nat and there's simply not enough there with Twitter to keep that attention.

That's what I got gang - I'm exhausted. I'll be back around when the CFB season kickss off on Memorial Day weekend. Until then, keep it real.