Tuesday, October 06, 2009

One Last Tune Up

One last tune up for the Horns this weekend before they really get into the meat of the schedule. After Saturday, their road becomes a bit tougher. Say what you will (and I have) about OU's two losses, Okie State's home loss, etc., etc. - there will be few, if any, opponents that are "lighter" than what they have faced thus far. I for one am quite ready to see what they can do against the above mentioned teams. Let's jump into the games - but before I do, I have to hit on Thursday night's big game in Columbia, MO.

What a crazy, weird game. First off, the entire game was played in some sort of monsoon, which always sucks because I don't think you truly get a good look of either team. At the end of the day, these two teams are pretty closely matched, and both are pretty darn good too. Gabbert certainly struggled at times and should have been picked off probably 2 or 3 more times than he was, but what do you expect trying to throw the ball in those conditions? It's not like Nebraska was able to do anything...until they got to the fourth quarter.

You have to give it to Nebraska's defense - they were really put in a tough spot by their offense and special teams most of the night, but they kept clawing and fighting, ultimately coming away with some hugely crucial turnovers. Offensively for the Huskers...save for a handful of plays, they were pitiful. Luckily for them those plays came in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Hell, they didn't eclipse the century mark in total yards until the last play of the third quarter. And after that, they reeled off 27 straight points.

I was very disappointed in some of the Mizzou play calling late in the fourth quarter. Obviously Gabbert was hurt - he was limping all over the field - yet he continued to stay in there. I don't get that. I guess a gimpy Gabbert is better than a healthy backup. I just kept feeling like Mizzou was running the same run play on every 4 out of 5 plays. That's playing not to lose.

Tough loss for Mizzou. In the first half they took advantage of the opportunities they were given, but they just couldn't hold on. Give Nebraska credit, they just seemed to flip a switch to start the fourth quarter and never looked back. Great, tough, strong win for Nebraska - these guys will be a force in the Big 12. And Missouri ain't going anywhere either. They'll get better from this.

Very intriguing Big 12 game happening in College Station as the Okie State Cowboys visit Aggie land. I have to say, I really have no idea what to think about this one, however I do think when the dust settles, we'll really know what we've got on our hands with both teams. This is definitely a must win for the Cowboys if they want to continue to cling to the national picture - a loss here and they are an afterthought. And pay attention Texas fans - you MUST root hard for the Cowboys. We want them with only that one loss coming into the Texas match up.

Meanwhile, the Aggies are coming off of a pretty ugly loss and heading back home for arguably an even tougher opponent. If they Aggies can't play defense any better, they'll get shredded by the Cowboy offense - that's no secret. What I'm most anxious to see is how Okie State handles the Aggie offense. I imagine Gundy and company are going to spend quite a lot of time with the Arkansas tape to see what the Razorbacks did to shut down that offense. The short version seems to be get pressure on Johnson and let the rest take care of itself.

Will be interesting to see how the Aggies come back after the loss - I'm taking Okie State though, I think they'll be more focused and I think they have more talent. It will be a very tough game for the Cowboys, but they'll pull it out.

Oklahoma State - 36
Texas A&M - 31

BREAKING NEWS: OK, so I admit, I had written this before hearing the news that Dez Bryant went "stupid athlete" on us and got himself suspended for the game (and likely more) - and I was too lazy to go back and re-write this soooo, here's the caveat. This certainly makes a difference. He's the reason they won against Georgia and he's the only reason they made the comeback against Houston when they got down big - trust me, it matters. On paper, Oklahoma State should still be able to win this game as I think they STILL have a better team, but this team has faced a lot of adversity with injuries and now this. I can't say I have a ton of confidence in Mike Gundy to pull this team together, but he may....but I'm changing my pick in the sheer hopes that the Aggies don't find a way to screw it up (which is a big possibility).

Texas A&M - 31
Oklahoma State - 27

Not-so intriguing game in the Big 12 has to be Colorado at Texas. It's a conference game and you can't pick your opponents, but I've seen Colorado play a few times and they are really bad. This could be Texas' worst opponent of the year. Dan Hawkins has his hands full and I'm not sure how long he's going to be able to hang on because they have no chance to win this game on Saturday and very little chance of keeping within 25 or 30 points. This could (and frankly should) be similar to the 2005 70-7 game - that's the difference in talent level right now.

I don't know what to say - just that I hope to see a different level of focus for this game because as we know, after this, things will get kicked up a notch. ALL of the opponents will be gunning for YOU and those opponents are good and getting better. I know they've played a conference game already, but this is really the beginning of the next level. This won't be close.

Quick note on this Texas fans - don't be surprised to wake up on Sunday and see Texas at #3. If Bama wins at Ole Miss and Florida wins at LSU, Bama will most certainly jump them in the polls due to more quality wins. Don't sweat it - if they continue to win their games and not stumble, they're in. Period.

Texas - 56
Colorado - 6

Big games in the SEC this weekend with the Crimson Tide and Gators going on the road. Certainly big tests for both teams, but if we take off our "we want a great game" glasses we're reminded that both LSU and Ole Miss have underachieved this year based on expectations. I know, I know, LSU is undefeated and just beat Georgia in Athens, but they have some real issues on the offensive side of the ball. I do think they'll give Florida some fits defensively, especially if Tebow is sidelined.

The issue with Florida is this - they're still a great team, but when Tebow *needs* to rush 20-25 times for them to win, they're not as good as when he doesn't have to do that. This alleged "sluggishness" has more to do with Percy Harvin being gone than anything else. That guy was a huge part of this offense and required a lot of attention from defenses. I hope Tebow plays (if he's ok to play of course) because if he doesn't and they lose, I can see pollsters giving them special treatment. Like I said, I think LSU can have some success against that Florida offense, but that Tiger offense is in some real trouble. I don't know what they're going to do to score. I can't take LSU because I have no faith in their ability to score.

One quick note on Tebow. Obviously I'm no doctor and have no idea how to judge these things, but he had to have sustained a pretty bad concussion to get knocked out like that. As I write this, the last I've heard is that it will be a game time decision. I gotta be honest, I don't like hearing that. If your making a determination of if it's safe or not for him to play and take hits hours or even minutes before game time, I personally think it's too soon. I know he's a competitor and he's going to tell docs what they want to hear, but Meyer or someone has to be smart about this. I know we're all tired of the media treating him like Obama in the more absurd moments of the campaign, but he's really a good kid and will likely do far more good off the field than on it in his future. It's also easier to sustain a second concussion if you come back too soon from the first one. For a guy who's been running the ball at least 10-15 times a game, that's not promising - especially in LSU at night with that defense. Memo to Florida - guess what, you can beat LSU with your backup QB, especially when he's been the one preparing for this game all week. Here's hoping this is just Meyer throwing up smoke screens so as to force LSU to prepare for both possibilities.

Florida - 27
LSU - 23

Meanwhile, Ole Miss has been equally as disappointing, the main difference being is they actually suffered a loss while LSU has narrowly avoided them. There's no question that Ole Miss is capable of delivering an upset here, they have the talent, but they haven't really put a complete game together. They've looked sloppy even in victory. At the same time, Alabama seems to quiet doubters more and more each week. This is one of those holding out hopes games, but if I'm going to be honest with myself, I think the Crimson Tide run away with it. Hope I'm wrong.

Alabama - 37
Ole Miss - 20

Under the radar big games in the Big 10 this weekend. Michigan visits Iowa and Wisconsin visits Ohio State. There's 4 of your top teams in the conference right there sans Penn State. Will be interesting to see how Michigan rebounds from that tough road loss. Iowa has been playing the LSU game by barely beating bad teams with a signature road win against a pretty strong team....and yet you still don't know if they're any good. I'm taking Michigan here in a tough road win - they know how to win the close games and I believe in their offense. And, I just don't trust Iowa.

Michigan - 27
Iowa - 21

Unfortunately I can't say the same for the visiting Badgers as they enter Columbus. Wisconsin is playing some tough ball right now and they'll certainly give Ohio State another much-needed test, but I have a hard time seeing the Badgers getting it done in "the Shoe". The Buckeyes have looked impressive over some patsies the past couple of weeks, and they've tasted the big challenge in USC which should make them well prepared. I'm taking Ohio State, but not in a blowout.

Ohio State - 27
Wisconsin - 22

UPSET SPECIAL: So I guess the Michigan over Iowa in Iowa would constitute an upset, but in a more official one I'm taking UCLA at home over Oregon. Mainly because I have zero faith in the Pac 10 as a conference of consistency. Sounds like Prince may be back this week and when he's in there, it allows the Bruins to open up the field. Look for the Bruins to be the next team to enter the top 25 next week with a surprising victory.

UCLA - 30
Oregon - 26

Homecoming in Lubbock. Read all about it here....
http://fannation.com/blogs/post/460299

NFL Predictions, Observations and Other Absurdities....
  • I'm not sure I've seen Brett Favre play a better game than he did on Monday night against his old team. Look, no one hated the Favre wooing bullsh*t more than I did, but at the end of the day, in the right situation, he can clearly still play....even at 40. The protection he got from his offensive line on Monday night was beyond impressive. If he's standing upright like that in most of his games, it will go a long way to keeping in in the game in the long haul. Green Bay forced Favre to beat them by stopping Peterson (no easy task, but they did it) and boy did he. Seriously, that was about as perfect a game as any QB can play in this league. With those offensive weapons and with that defense, Minnesota is for real. Jared Allen was ridiculous. He's on pace for like 90 sacks this year.
  • Don't get too down on the Packers. They just ran into a highly motivated Vikings team who collectively played almost a perfect game. Minnesota had 2 penalties for like 10 yard while the Packers had almost 80 yards in penalties. That's huge. Rogers turnovers were tough, but he's a good QB and you can't be upset with him if you're Green Bay - he'll play at a high level for a number of years in this league.
  • Manning is like 33 years old and he is hands down the best QB in the league today. Not even close. And he's got new receivers....and he's got a new head coach and offensive coordinator....yeah, he's that good.
  • Soooo, Braylon Edwards to the Jets, huh. Anyone find it a tad suspicious that this deal goes down shortly after Edwards is called out by Lebron for punching his friend in the face? Here's the short version: Cleveland is Lebron's town. Period. If you're an underachieving, overpaid receiver like Edwards, you better mind your sh*t in that town. I think Lebron had his posse send a message to Edwards and the Browns....like a horse head in the bed kind of message. I can see it now, Edwards in Lebron's office begging for one last chance - "I swear Don James, you won't never see me in a Cleveland nightclub again - just give me one more chance.". Meanwhile, Mangini is like Luca Brasi sitting outside, practicing what he's going to say, "I am honored that you invited me on the day of your daughter's wedding, to......your daughter's wedding."
  • By the way Edwards, good luck with the fans in New York if you keep dropping passes. He's got a second lease on life with a playoff team - he is one lucky SOB. He's got a solid QB, and some other weapons to help take attention off of him (not like he's going to get a ton until he proves something).
  • Well, well, well - looks like Crabtree may all of a sudden be cool with the generous offer the Niners made. Funny how a 4-1 "doing just fine thank you" record will do that. Good luck earning the respect of your teammates in the Bay Area. Not to mention, your coach. Look, Singeltary will be tough (which Crabtree needs BADLY), but he'll be fair too. And seeing as how the team has bought into what he's bringing to the table, I think the team will watch Coach Singeltary to see when they can/should welcome this punk into the fold. If Crabtree knows what's good for him, he'll keep his mouth shut and work his ass off - it will no doubt be a tremendous culture shock going from cushy Leach and Tech to Michael F'ng Singeltary and a team on a mission for the playoffs. Can't wait to see how it unfolds - I have seen absolutely nothing that would suggest that Crabtree is going to do the right thing and make the right decisions. Nothing at all. We'll see.
  • I love how the media headlines are "Niners and Crabtree reach deal" - oh, so by "reach deal" you mean one of them caved? Am was I severely wasted, or did I hear correctly that MC Hammer was involved in the negotiations? How in the world do you get to a situation where MC Hammer takes a break from being Whitney Houston's ex-husband to help close the Crabtree deal? Oh yeah, I like where this is going. I will certainly stay tuned.
  • Might be a long, painful year for Eli Manning. Again, not a doctor, but I hear that foot injury he's got is not serious, but can be very painful and it's just a matter of playing through it. They get the Raiders at home this weekend - I'm positive David Carr can't screw that up, not with that team around him. Rest Manning - you'll be glad you did over the next few weeks.
  • FANTASY UPDATE: Another week, more roster tampering. I'm still holding 3 QBs (which I really hate), but 2 of them are dealing with/coming off of injuries. I hear McNabb is going to play this weekend against Tampa so I may need to get him back into the rotation. I'm hoping he watched Kolb and has another awakening moments like he did last year after being benched and light things up. I've picked up both RBs from Baltimore and will play both of them this weekend - I had Rice, but realized that these guys together put up a lot of yards/numbers, but if you just have one of them it's a big crap shoot. I feel good about this. I think they play Cleveland. Oh, and I did propose my first trade this week - so we'll see how that goes.
  • Intriguing game of the weekend: gotta be Patriots at Broncos. Denver has a brutal 4 game stretch coming up with Pats at home and then on the road in consecutive weeks at Chargers, and at Ravens, followed by Pittsburgh at home. And that Pittsburgh game is sure to include Troy Polamalu back in the lineup. I don't know, but I love rooting for this team given all of the crap they took because one cry baby prima dona got his wittle feewings hurt. I say they go 2-2 beating the Chargers on the road and New England at home. 6-2 after eight weeks is mile beyond what anyone expected from this team at the halfway point.
  • Be careful Dallas, don't lose this game in Kansas City....Romo has to stop the "bleeding" so to speak in this game.
  • Look at the remaining 4-0 teams left and tell me which one you think is best - I can't do it. I can't wait for the NFC playoffs, I think that's going to be a battle on all accounts. It's early and Super Bowl teams aren't developed in October, but I have a hard time seeing anyone seriously competing with Baltimore and Indy in the AFC. I'm expecting a post-championship letdown by the Steelers; we've always known what we've had with the Chargers (a Norv Turner coached team); and I just don't think the Patriots have all the pieces to put a run together this year. I had picked Green Bay as my Super Bowl champs, but a quarter of the way through the season I'm revising my pick: Indy over New Orleans. Barring a fractured femur or something, I don't know how anyone is going to stop Manning (the older one).
  • Sigh - I'm going to admit it, Roy Williams is not now, nor will he ever be a number one receiver. He's got so much promise - just look at him!! Interesting note - look at Roy Williams and Limas Sweed (both Texas exes) and tell me they aren't the same person. Both hugely athletic/talented in college. Both have been big disappointments in the league thus far. Limas still has time to turn it around and Roy did make a pro bowl, but to say they've lived up to expectations respectively would be a false statement.
  • At some point, do doctors in Seattle start to wonder if there *really* is an "injury bug"? I mean, look at what has and what continues to happen to the Seahawks every year. I'm just saying...
  • Mark my words, Miami will upset the Jets on Monday night, silencing the the talk for just a little bit.
Non-Football Thoughts for the Week...
  • I don't know about playoff day games in baseball. Seems like it takes the edge out of home field advantage a bit. People seem to like it, but I don't get it. Doesn't that hurt TV revenue?
  • I'm actually somewhat eager to see Dodgers/Cardinals series. I have no idea when it's on so I'll just look for it each night and hope I get lucky.
  • Because baseball is a sport and I like sports, I guess I'll give it a shot: Yankees over Phillies in world series.
  • What ever happened to those 3.5 million jobs?
  • Tragedy - my DVR "ate" the final King of the Hill episode. Someone, please help, how can I see this? I know I have the world wide web at my fingertips, but rather than searching high and low, I know someone out there knows where to look first.
  • Am I the only one who looks at David Letterman in a more "creepy" light? I somehow doubt it.
  • Who amongst us really needs a play-by-play of the H1N1 flu vaccine being rolled out? A few days ago it was, "Swine Flu Vaccines set to ship". Now it's commentary on how the shot actually feels. Really? Come on now. It's a f'ng shot, right? Sooo, it feels like getting a shot I would imagine. Put me down on the list of folks who'll hold off on this new vaccine for now - it's like buying the first year model of a new car, you don't want the FIRST model, you want to let them work out the kinks.
  • I'm not a paranoid freak or anything, but home invasion scares the sh*t out of me.
  • So these commercials with the testimonials of the "tax relief services" are kind of disturbing to me. I'll admit I don't know the whole story, but when I see people say, "we owed over $86,000 in back taxes and Associated Tax Relief was able to negotiate it down to just over $4,000." Wait, what? You mean you owed the government over eighty-six grand and got it down to 4 grand? So first off, how did you get into that situation to begin with? And secondly, how does this affect this tax revenue? I don't think I'm so much happy for these folks as I am a little pissed. I don't know, but I kind of think you're somehow kind of screwing the rest of us who don't owe back taxes.
  • I've got some big, BIG news - I had some sort of awakening at the driving range this week. As you may recall, I've struggled quite a bit with my golf game of late - losing well over 20 balls in my last 3 outings. It's been ugly. I realized that I had tweaked my swing to compensate for short comings so many times that eventually, my entire swing was a compensation - taking half swings to keep the ball straight, not using my wrists at all, moving the ball around in my stance, etc., etc.. So I got a giant bucket of balls and just went back to taking a full swing and "just hitting the ball" and it was like....I don't know what. I hit balls for an hour and a half and my slice was gone. Period. Gone. I was crushing balls with my driver and 3 wood like I can't remember hitting in a long, LONG time. I don't want to get too excited, I'll be hitting the range at least a few more times before I play again, but I definitely plan to get on the links next week. I'll keep you posted and let's not get too excited, but I think I'm on to something here...
  • The greatest threat to American Democracy is not so much Democrats, Republicans, or big corporations as it is a bunch of idiots with access to the internet. You can't pick up a paper without seeing at least something on Muslim extremists. Check out the "American" extremists while you're at it. There are some crazy, CRAZY people out there who are allowed to put up web sites, convene as a group, and spread whatever message they want. Be smarter than the internet people. The bad thing is it's seeping into the "real" politicians. I know, I know, much of this has been going on for a long, long time, but the tone of it is getting a tad out of hand.
  • So I heard that San Francisco has banned smoking of any kind on public golf courses? This means cigars, cigarettes, anything. Look, San Fran, we all know that you think you're going to save the world and all that, but have you lost your minds? Public golf courses? Isn't that like 150 acres of wide open outside air? I'm sure we all appreciate you spear-heading that legalized weed thing, but I think we've just about had enough.
  • Watched some of the UFL on Thursday night - on it's inagural night as a football....something. When I tuned it on the sideline reporter (real quick, just think how much we hate sideline reporters in the college or pro game....ok back to it) was talking to the QB on the Las Vegas team (yeah, during the game) and she was asking him about living in Las Vegas and if he's seen any scorpions - then we had to listen to him tell a story about seeing an effing scorpion. Jesus, really? We'll see how this 4 team, 6 game league goes, but I'm not overly optimistic.
  • And finally, I'm going to drop some knowledge on you that I guarantee less than 10% of you were aware of - the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever are headed into a heated game 5 of the WNBA finals this Friday. In case you're wondering, the women's game is always a best-of-five series. So tune in....not sure where, but you can probably find it.
That's what I got gang - enjoy the great weather this weekend.

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