Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Statement Games on Tap

Big weekend for both leagues this weekend. The theme on a few campuses on Saturday will be revenge. Meanwhile, the NFL enters it's second week where we REALLY learn what kinds of teams we've got in store for the year. There's a lot to cover so let's get to it. Speaking of revenge games...

Texas Tech at Texas:
Look, I think we're all over last year's loss in Lubbock, but if I have to see that Crabtree catch replay one more time I'm going to go mental. We get it, it was a play for the ages and the biggest win in Tech history. Back in the real world though, Tech doesn't have Crabtree or Harrell anymore and Crabtree is neck in neck with Kanye West down the stretch in the race to be the world's dumbest sonuvabitch.

Look, I don't doubt for one second that Taylor Potts can run the Tech system pretty well. And throwing 7 TDs in a game is pretty damn impressive, I guess, but he thew like 57 times. And it was against Rice. Not knocking him, he needs those games (all teams do) to get comfortable with his offense, but he is going to get absolutely buried on Saturday night in front of 100+K fans. I think Texas has had 2 games primarily circled on their calendars as statement games (although no athlete will ever admit this) and this is one of them.

On paper, you can look at Tech's defense and be a bit concerned as they return the guys who did the most damage to Texas in last year's game. But again, this ain't last year's game, this ain't 2 months into the season, and this ain't Lubbock at night. Yes, the players are there, but as we all know too well, what happens one year can change wildly the next year.

I think Colt is going to have a field day kind of game here. He historically makes some huge plays with his legs against Tech and given the fact that he's been quiet in the run department the last two games means he's priming for that surprise 45 yard run. Tech has good linebackers, you can't deny that, but it's the long ball (25+ yards) that I think is going to do Tech in early and often. If Texas can manage to NOT turn the ball over once in this game, it will be a slaughter.

Couple of areas for Texas - I'm not at all worried about the defense. Our secondary knows these guys....very well. A missed INT and (potentially) a missed tackle by the corner were the differences in this game last year - don't think the secondary hasn't had that in their minds. They'll be ready. BUT, the offensive line must protect better than they did last week in Wyoming. I'll be watching closely to see if Colt is running for his life like he was at times last week. If they give him time, he'll shred that Tech secondary.

Quick side bar here - some jackass at cnnsi.com (Bill Trocchi) is still so giddy about last year's game that he's saying f'k it, another close one - he's predicting Texas 38 and Tech 31. Really? So they're going to play the closest game they've played in Austin in about 15 years with a QB playing in his first road game....in Austin? Hooser, go find where this guy sits and slap his ass.

I'm giving 2 scores here because there's one I really want and there's one that I think Mack will allow, to an extent (I really think it will be 45-21). But what I want is...

Texas - 57
Tech - 17

Now put on your black cowboy hat, grab you some tortillas and check out the view from the plains - A Red Raider take on the game: http://fannation.com/blogs/post/446179

Michigan State at Notre Dame:
The Spartans own that stadium in South Bend like Texas owns Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. They pretty much never lose on the Domer's field. I think this could be the week that streak breaks though. This is an interesting game here - and mainly because of the intangible sub plots here.

- Both teams are coming off of "big" losses: ND we know intimately about, but MSU is coming off of a semi-embarrassing loss to Central Michigan. Granted, these guys have a very exciting player in LeFevour, but you just can't lose that game if you're the Spartans. Call it a looking ahead game if you want to, but that wasn't good. You can't say the same for ND though. The Irish don't "look ahead" beyond Michigan. They just don't...or they shouldn't.

- Both teams are trying desperately to convince folks that they are going to defy expectations and be a "sleeper" or "dark horse" this year. I'll be damned if every media outlet east of the Mississippi isn't trying to will the Domers into a BCS game, or worse, national title game. Meanwhile, the Spartans are the sexy pick as the Big 11 dark horse. Which ever team loses this game is officially out of either conversation. Although I guess conceivably MSU could still win the conference, but not likely.

- Ironically, this won't be a "big win" for either team. It will be a much-needed win, but not a big win, at least not yet. The end of year standings will give us a truer sense of any of these teams, but on Sunday morning, the winner can't say they just won a big game.

At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame breaks the Spartan curse and Clausen throws for three and a half bills (MSU gave up 300 yards passing to C. Michigan). Michigan State's main focus on defense has to be getting pressure on Clausen - I don't think he's been sacked this year.

I'd love an MSU victory here, thereby likely sealing Weiss' fate, but I just don't see it.

Notre Dame - 38
Michigan State - 28

West Virginia at Auburn:
Circle this one on your TV schedules folks, this is going to be a good one. I'll even go so far as to say this may be the game of the day. If I'm not mistaken, the Mountaineers gave the Tigers a pretty good ass whoopin' last year in what ended up being a horrible year for Auburn. I find this game interesting because we've seen some good things from both of these teams this year and both teams were (and still are to an extent) HUGE question marks - what kinds of teams are they really going to be.

A big surprise for many, West Virginia seems to be coping just fine without Pat White behind center, but heading into Auburn will be a unique scenario to say the least. A solid win here and I think Auburn fans will begin to get little kick in their step and get some confidence. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that West Virginia is bad (Devine is a very good back and very dangerous), I'm just saying I think the home team, the atmosphere and Chizick's motivational skills will add up to a hungry Auburn team. I do think you'll see the offensive output of Auburn come down to earth a bit, they'll still move the ball.

Auburn - 28
West Virginia - 20

Other games of note this weekend...

Nebraska at Virginia Tech:
This is a big game on a number of levels. If you're a fan of any Big 12 team you R-E-A-L-L-Y want the Huskers to have a big showing here and pull out a win. Hell, even if you lose on a last- second field goal or something, whatever, just make a good showing. This is also big for Nebraska as a program - they've been on the ropes for the last several years (thank you Bill Callahan) and I think most would agree that Pelini has a great chance of turning it around, it just won't happen overnight.

Personally, I think this was the game that Pelini and company had circled on their calendars as THE game to let the country know that Nebraska is on it's way back. I think you're going to see a Nebraska team that is very hungry and they will play with a tremendous amount of confidence. They have nothing to lose and Virginia Tech has A LOT to lose.

A loss here and Virginia Tech is officially off the radar and the ACC will take one on the chin (right or wrong, it will happen). For this reason I'm going with the team with nothing to lose over the team likely to come out tight and conservative.

Nebraska - 27
Virginia Tech - 22

Tennessee at Florida:
Look, I really want to say something that's going to give the impression that the Vols just may surprise the Gators and make this a semi-close game...but I can't. If the Vols kept the deficit under 14 (i.e. at a 2 score game) all day, I'd be impressed. I don't see it happening. I've got nothing else to say really.

Florida - 55
Tennessee - 13

Upset Special...

USC at Washington:
Look, don't ask questions and just work with me for a second here. For starters, I'm not drinking the Barkley Kool-Aid just yet. I don't doubt he's a talented quarterback - you don't get selected to start as a true freshman under Carroll without being damn good. Carroll knows what he's doing. But, this team, and Barkley in general, is nothing like the past teams we've seen fielded in Southern Cal. Maybe they will get that way as the season goes on, but they're not there yet.

There is one key to USC's offense and that's Joe McKnight. You can gush over the QB play all you want to during that last drive in Columbus last week, but McKnight won that game for them. Period. Barkley completed 3 passes on that last drive, 2 of them were 7 yard throws or less. I'm really not trying to hammer this kid, but I am being realistic - he still hasn't shown me anything that makes me think he's any better than any other QB in the country right now. And he's certainly no Carson Palmer or Matt Lineart.

And let's be honest, how many times over the last 3-5 years has USC gone into a game like this early in the year and been "shocked"? It just feels like that kind of game. Washington could lose every game this year and win this one and feel good.

Washington - 26
USC - 22

Other College Football Thoughts Going into the Weekend:
  • Alright aggie fans - I'll give you more meat on the recap of this barn burner with Utah State after the game. In terms of lead up, I don't know. You've played one game and had an off week. Sounds like the New Mexico game was very promising which is good for this team with no identity. I will say this, when you look at this Aggie schedule, it's set up as an absolutely perfect schedule for a team trying to "rebuild" itself so to speak. Unless this is listed wrong, they play 4 away games, 1 neutral game (in Dallas) and 7 home games. Outside of Arkansas (more on them below), their non-conference games are against New Mexico, Utah State and UAB. They don't play their first away game until October 17 (not counting the Arkansas game in Dallas). I still say this team is 6-6 this year, 7-5 at best. I'd be very surprised if it was any better than that, but that's OK aggie fan, you can't expect a huge season this year. I still don't know if Sherman is the guy, but I also don't know he's not the guy. We'll see. I imagine we'll see another 40-something to something-teen. At least you had better hope so.
  • My take on Arkansas is they may just be the most dangerous team in the country. Petrino is in his second year and good coaches typically make a big splash after year two. Say what you will about his time with the Falcons, he's a hell of a college coach. And he's got Ryan Mallet starting this year at QB. I mentioned last week I think Florida will definitely lose a game and one of them could be the Razorbacks. I'm not saying they're winning the conference at all, I'm just saying they may end the year as the best 8-4 team in the country that NO ONE wants to play. By the way, they get Bama, LSU, Florida and Ole Miss on the road this year....and I say they'll steal one of those games. My eye is on the Florida game.
  • I've heard a lot about this the past couple of days and I'm buying it - I say Sam Bradford's season is done in Oklahoma. I kind of, sort of feel sorry for him (not that sorry, he'll still make a boat-load of money) for deciding to come back and then this happens. But oh well, he made his bed. Either way, I'd sit out if I were him. Oklahoma ain't winning a national title this year and I think everyone knows that - not with that offensive line. He should hang it up, heal/get surgery/whatever he needs to do, and get ready for the draft. If he rests/heals his shoulder and just continues to work, he'll get drafted VERY high. I think he's a better pro prospect than Colt, Tebow or any of the upper class players. Could be a very long year for the Sooners this year, but we'll see - stranger things have happened.
  • Doesn't your gut tell you that the fact that EVERYONE on earth is picking Florida to win by 50, mean we could be in for a shocker of mass proportion? I can't help but to think it. I don't truly believe it's going to happen, I just can't help thinking it.
  • Leach: "Taylor Potts may be the best quarterback we've had in our system." Is it me or have we heard this before? I still say Harrell and Kingsbury were the top 2 in Leach's time there.
  • Florida State/BYU could be a very fun game to watch.
  • One more note per my USC/Washington take - the head coach and D-coordinator at Washington are former USC assistants. Not saying that's the difference, but I think it matters - these guys can prepare this team better than coaches who weren't former assistants there.
  • Colorado gets Wyoming this weekend - how much worse can it get for Brad Hawkins? Surely we're at rock bottom, right? We'll see this weekend.
  • One thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the OU/Tulsa game is the Golden Hurricane offense. I'm not suggesting Tulsa will win this, but Tulsa has been a top offensive team in the country the past few years and they can score some points. If they can force the Sooners into having to score a bunch of points to win, it could get interesting in Norman.
  • Boring game of the week: Kansas State at UCLA. KSU really sucks this year. I mean bad. And the Bruins will be playing with a backup QB. Whoever gets into the 20s in points wins.
  • I think we may look up in about 6-7 weeks and Joe McKnight may be running away with the heisman.
  • Sooo, the chatter I'm hearing about Tressell being on the hot seat is a bit....ABSURD! Let's review: this guy wins the Big 11 EVERY YEAR. He beats Michigan EVERY YEAR. He's played in 3 national title games since he's been there, and won one of them. Who, Buckeye fan, are you going to go and get? Yes, I know, Tressell's teams have laid eggs against top 5 opponent over the last few years (0-6 if I'm not mistaken), but he's in the mix. Yes, he plays an ultra-conservative offense which you absolutely cannot do with a QB like that. However, as physically talented as Pryor is, you can't tell me he hasn't been overrated by every talking head out there over the last 12 months. "He can run a sub 4.4 40 time." Unfortunately he struggles to hit earth when he's passing. It's too bad football games aren't played on tracks with no pads on and no one trying to pummel you. Seriously, calm down Buckeye fans. If he continues to sputter out offensively, than yes you need to make some changes there, but replacing Tressell is a big mistake right now and there's no way the AD is even considering this as an option at this point. Remember OSU fan, you can STILL go 11-1 this year. Focus on that. (although we both know you won't).
  • Miami Hurricanes look pretty darn good.
NFL News, Notes, Observations and Things I Generally Believe:
  • Fantasy Update: Joe Theisman's Leg (that's my team name by the way) had a good overall outing, winning my first match up. After the games I went in and tweaked my roster quite a bit. I believe I remember writing this last week, "f'k it, I'm going with Anthony Gonzalez". He promptly went out and seems to have shredded several somethings in his leg. Needless to say he's no longer on the team. Here's what I'm banking on: The Bills skill players continuing their surprising success against a defense-less Tampa Bay team; The Jets backs further exposing the porous Pats defense; The Cardinals finding someone, anyone to throw the damn ball to Larry Fitzgerald; and Percy Harvin to break a couple of big ones against the hapless Lions.
  • Teams that really need a win badly. And I mean, very badly: Chicago (playing Steelers), Washington (playing St. Louis), Arizona (playing Jacksonville) and Miami (playing Colts). A loss by any of these teams will not be good - especially for the Bears.
  • Memo to Pats' Fan: How did it feel to literally have a game gift-wrapped and handed to you in the final minute? Look, Brady is Brady, we all know he's great, but don't tell me that had the Bills retained the ball, the Pats would have definitely won. Just downing the ball in the end zone on the kickoff would have cut their chances of winning in half. At least. It's the NFL and a win is a win, but the Pats have some enormous defensive issues. Which brings me to...
  • Game of the week: Pats at Jets. I'm going Jets here and the main reason being is I totally buy into the Rex Ryan gig there. If New England's defense was anything like it was last week, Sanchez won't have to make any big throws here - much like Edwards did, he can dump off to his play makers (guess who has Leon Washington on their fantasy team and guess who's playing him?) and let them do their thing. Washington and Jones alone can make some big plays. I'm taking the Jets in this one, thereby showering Jets faithful with confidence, high hopes and ridiculous expectations.
  • How have the Bears NOT signed Derrick Brooks yet? With the loss of Urlacher, the leader and heart and soul of that team is done for the year. Brooks may not be able to still make the plays Urlacher could make, but he's damn good and he's a very vocal and passionate leader. If someone can make these guys believe again, it's DB.
  • Could we be seeing the end of the Urlacher era in Chicago altogether? Me thinks we might.
  • Much like New England, I think San Diego is damn lucky to get out of Oakland with a win. Let's not forget that the Chargers started off VERY slow last year and ended up making the playoffs at 8-8 - thanks in large part to their division (Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs).
  • I still say Denver shocks the league and sneaks in the playoffs as a wild card.
  • I know it's only one game, but anyone else get the feeling McDaniels knew what he was doing when he inquired about trading Cutler for Cassell? Abysmal game by the brat on Sunday night - good news is he's got a home game coming up. Bad news is it's against the Steelers.
  • You guys know how much I love Peter King, but he's got the Cowboys beating the Giants this Monday night? Wha-wha-wha-what? I'm curious, who are the Cowboys going to get to block against the Giants' pass rush? And who on Dallas is going to make a big play when they need it? Remember, this ain't the Bucs - you likely won't give up 1, much less 3 plays of 45 or more yards. I can see the Cowboys slowing down the Giants offense a bit, but not entirely - between the receivers stepping up in droves and Bradshaw and Jacobs picking up where they left off last week, I don't see it. Not at all. Giants by 2 scores.
Non-Sports Thoughts for the Week:
I've got just 2 quick things I want to cover here.

1) Check out this article provided by Black Dog - it's long so dig in. When you're finished, try and decide who you hate more - the Government or Goldman Sachs. Quick disclaimer here, as you can see it's a Rolling Stone article. I'm not going to pretend that the Rolling Stone is the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, but it's also not Mad magazine - this stuff wasn't just made up.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/29127316/the_great_american_bubble_machine/1

2) Patrick Swayze: In Memoriam

Johnny: "Nobody puts Baby in a corner."

Dalton: "I want you to be nice....until it's time to not be nice."

Darry Curtis: "You smoke more than a pack a day and I'll skin you. Understood?"

Bodhi: "If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love."

Jed Eckert: "My family would want me to stay alive. Your family would want you to stay alive. You think you're so smart, man, but you're just a bunch of scared kids."

Steve: "What if someone calls my momma a whore?"
Dalton: "Is she?"

That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend of games. I'll have a recap early next week.

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