Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tape-Delay Weekend

ACL, Octoberfest, and just general Texas bye week means late night Saturday night for yours truly watching the better games on DVR. That's the commitment I give to you, my faithful readers (see info below for donations).

Although it's a much-needed bye week for the Horns (I actually wish it was late October/early November as I think they'll need it) I do realize some of you, my raving fans, follow other teams at times so you're in luck - there are a whole lot of hum-dingers this weekend. Before we get to the games, want to sound off on a topic that never fails to pop up at some point each year and now is as good of a time as any....

The problem with Style Points. This popped into my head late Saturday evening as I listened to some talking heads ask the question, "should Tebow have even been in the game?". Of course hind sight is 20-20, but a fair question nonetheless. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Florida was up 31-7 at the time of Timmy's injury (By the way, little side note here, what a horrible looking injury that was. The hit was great; clean, below the head and textbook-like, but that sight of his head hitting that dude's knee was awful. Obviously we all hope he's going to be fine and it sounds like he will). So couple of things on the injury and whether or not he should have been in the game.

First and foremost, when have you ever known Urban Meyer to NOT put up a lot of points when he can. He's like Spurrier in that sense - the guy who invented that style in Gainsville. Second, that injury could have happened anytime in the game - it didn't happen to Tebow because he was in during the late part of the 3rd quarter. And finally, wasn't Colt McCoy in the game at the beginning of the 3rd quarter....when they were up by 40, about to go up by 47? Just because Tebow got hurt and Colt didn't doesn't mean he should or should not have been in - sh*t happens sometimes and that's that. If it were 51-7, that would be another story, but they were up by 24 points - not really a "run up the score" kind of score we've become accustomed to with Meyer and company.

Here's the issue with style points - is the fact that you beat someone 70-7 any more impressive than if you beat them 30-7? I mean, at the end of the day you've held your opponent to one score (which is a HUGE feat in college football more times than not) and you've thoroughly wupped 'em. I just don't understand how if you have 2 teams playing equal opponents and one of them wins by 25 and the other wins by 45, the team with the larger margin of victory will get a "leg up". But nevertheless, here we are yet again discussing a mindless aspect of CFB that will never change. The fact remains that the media and pollsters reward running up the score (especially with such darlings as Tebow and Florida), so teams will continue to do it. Do you praise Mack for standing by his principals so to speak? Sure, but it just may cost him a shot at the big one (and it just may have last year).

Now on to the games - where oh where to begin....

Would you rather be rested or tested when facing a week 5 big game? That question will be answered when the rested Sooners visit the much tested Hurricanes. I imagine Stoops and company aren't thrilled with the fact that Miami is coming off such a bad loss. Everyone has certainly stopped gushing over the resurgence of The U, and that may be the best thing that ever happened to them. When teams get too comfortable with themselves, they can get both cocky and complacent. However, when you go into a BIG game and get your ass handed to, it gives you motivation. This is where Miami's schedule can work to their advantage. When you play a four-game stretch like Miami will have played to start the year, you can afford to lose one of those games because you'll have an opportunity to erase that loss so to speak. Just look at what Oregon did over the weekend - after that Boise State loss, people wrote them off. Then, they quietly went in and beat Purdue and Utah, and then dropped the hammer with a dominant win over Cal. Now look at them - they control their own destiny in the Pac 10. Don't sleep on Miami just because of what you saw in Blacksburg - Virginia Tech is a damn good team and they are one of the best at home...and it was a monsoon. Not making excuses, but Miami's level of competition has been head and shoulders above that of OU. And OU has not seen speed like this since....well, since they played Florida last January and we all know how well that worked out....and they had a month to prepare.

With that said, it's still OU and I don't want to discount what Stoops and coaching staff are capable of doing with a week off. They'll have their work cut out for them, but they've pulled off wins like this before. I honestly don't know if we know anymore about OU after their games against Idaho State and Tulsa, but what really came out of those games is time. Time for Landry Jones to get comfortable with the offense in real-game situations. When you're breaking in a new signal caller, those opponents are good to have. But the jump may just be too much for the kid - like I said, Miami's speed on defense will be like nothing he's seen...ever. The Canes secondary is vulnerable as we've seen, but Stoops HAS to establish the run to have any chance of winning this game. And from the looks of the Hokie game, that won't be too much of a stretch.

At the end of the day, the offensive line still concerns me and honestly, I feel like if Stoops was really confident in Jones to handle this schedule, there wouldn't be this level of interest and focus on Bradford's situation. They have a brutal schedule remaining, including this weekend, and I would hate for Bradford to further jeopardize his chances at the next level. I say Bradford sits for one more week (just smoke screens by Stoops) and that Miami takes this one in a redemption game. Even if Bradford were playing, I still would probably take Miami.

Miami - 33
Oklahoma - 24

Meanwhile, out on the left coast, we get a match up of two teams who fall into the "I THINK they're pretty good" category: USC visits Cal. After seeing how Cal laid an egg last weekend, I really just don't know about this one. I mentioned this earlier this week, but I have to think that Cal was looking ahead just a bit. Nevertheless, we've seen this from Cal before - start the season on a very high note and go on to lose 4 of your next 6 games. This team could wind up 11-1 or 7-5 and I wouldn't at all be surprised one way or another.

The good news for Cal is I'm pretty sure USC is a shell of what we've become accustomed to. With their starting QB nursing a sore shoulder and their backup RB (who has been very productive thus far) recovering from some pretty serious surgery, this team is more than vulnerable. For the first time in what seems like a loooong time, Pete Carroll is being challenged in his ability to simply reload. Make no mistake about it - this is a Trojan team more than capable of losing 2-3 more games this year. After this game they get Notre Dame on the road and then they visit Eugene, OR on Halloween night. That's a fairly tough slate right there.

I'm giving the advantage to the Golden Bears here as I think last week's loss will be motivation enough for them - here's hoping Jeff Tedford has figured out how to motivate after a loss.

Cal - 31
USC - 21

Big game for the Big 12 North this weekend as Nebraska visits Missouri. You've heard me reference Missouri quite a bit this week, but I wholeheartedly feel they are for real. I'm not suggesting they're going to run the table or anything, but they are a very dangerous football team offensively. This will be a good match up of the Missouri offense (ranked 16th nationally in total offense) against an increasingly tough Nebraska defense ranked 22nd nationally (3rd in points allowed including a trip to Blacksburg).

Nebraska has a pretty darn good offense too, and will likely be the toughest test for this Missouri defense yet. All in all, these teams are evenly matched and I expect to see a tough game. Unfortunately this is a "bigger" game for Missouri as a win over a ranked Nebraska team and they'll be back on the national radar. Meanwhile, a win by Nebraska will allow them to stand pat in the rankings. I will again go back to who's been tested. Nebraska is coming off of a very impressive home win over a very mediocre Louisiana-Lafayette team while Mizzou is coming off of that road win at Nevada. But, let's not forget Nebraska out played (they just lost the game) Virginia Tech and they believe they can play with anyone. I'm taking Missouri here by a hair, but if I were setting the lines it would almost be a pick 'em.

Missouri - 31
Nebraska - 30

Anyone else remember the good old Southwest Conference Days? Good, well get ready to jump in the delorian and juice up the 1.21 gigawatts of electricity because we're going old school. Former conference foes Texas A&M and Arkansas kick it off in Jerry Land on Saturday evening for what I believe to be a very intriguing game. Let's start with the aggies - like many, many teams thus far, they've played next to nobody. However, they are averaging over 570 yards per game which is really something else. Needless to say they are ranked at the top of the conference AND the nation in that stat, but trust me friends, that will change very quickly as the season progresses. On the flip side, they are giving up over 350 yards per game and that really doesn't make me feel good considering the competition.

Arkansas on the other hand is a bit of an enigma. They're 1-2 right now with their lone win coming against Missouri State. But, they're two losses are a close one to Georgia and this past week to Alabama - two very tough, early games for an "up-in-coming" team. I'll be interested to see how the Razorback defense handles the now seemingly formidable Aggie offense. This will most certainly be the best team that the Aggies have faced all year, but likely the third best team Arkansas has faced and not to sound like a broken record, but I'm a believer in good, tough test games early. Ryan Mallet and company are more than capable of putting up some gaudy numbers and given the struggles of the "Wrecking Crew" (are we going on 20 years now since that's been a relevant term for the Aggie defense?), I can see them picking the Aggie defense apart.

At the end of the day I think this Arkansas team battle tested and oh-so hungry for a relevant win. Meanwhile the Aggies have seemingly been on cruise control through the likes of Utah State, UAB and New Mexico. I'm taking Razorbacks here, but I'm VERY interested to see the Aggies up close and personal - and especially this Jerrod Johnson kid. It doesn't look like he's faced much adversity thus far this year, so we'll see what happens if he throws a pick or takes a sack or two. He'll certainly be challenged.

Arkansas - 34
Texas A&M - 28

A tale of two teams - one is ranked well beyond it's resume while the other is probably a little better than it's ranking. You tell me which is which...

In it's first four games, Georgia has played at Okie State, at South Carolina, at Arkansas and at home against Arizona State. They lost to Okie State as we know, but that's it. Meanwhile, LSU has gone to Washington (not bad), to Mississippi State, and had Vandy and Louisiana-Lafayette at home. Tell me LSU's 4-0 record is better than Georgia's 3-1 - you can't do it.

Because it's LSU, you never know when a big, impressive win is just around the corner....and because it's Les Miles, you never know when a bonehead loss is just around the corner. They *should* have lost to MSU last week, but that's another story.

This brings me to my main point on Les Miles. When he came to LSU I remember railing on the program for bringing this guy in as I got to see him up close and personal at Oklahoma State and frankly I'm not positive he's not just an older, more polished Mike Gundy. Then he goes out and wins a national title so I ease up and give him the benefit of the doubt. But now, in hind sight, I can't help but to wonder: are we seeing the REAL Les Miles as we move farther and farther away from the Nick Saban years? I mean, he won 2 years after Saban, right? So in essence, he was playing with Saban's money. I think the next two years will be very telling as to what LSU fans really have with Mr. Miles.

I also think LSU will be so enamored with taking down Big, Bad Florida the following week that they'll take their eye off the ball and subsequently get spanked. Again, going with the more tested team here.

Georgia - 26
LSU - 20

And if you're really hard up this weekend - here's a look at the monster Texas Tech/New Mexico match up. Yours truly is taking Tech, coming off of a rare 2-game losing streak, to win by, ohhh, about 60. But that's me - let's leave it to the expert: http://wisdomofthecrowd.blogspot.com/

NFL Notes and Preview:
  • The Lions ride a winning streak into Chicago....I hope they enjoyed it. But seriously, how awesome would it be if the Lions went into Chicago and knocked of the Bears? I'll never not root for the Lions.
  • Dallas may have gotten a must win against Carolina last Monday night, but they didn't get a pretty win. Very interesting game coming up at Denver this weekend. Both teams really need a statement win. I know Denver has played a relatively easy schedule thus far, but winning 3 straight games in the NFL is very difficult, at any time. Look at the other 3-0 teams - they are all the more "elite" teams. Of course you could argue that the Jets aren't an elite team just yet, but they are very good. Denver isn't in a league with those other teams - I think this illustrates how difficult it is for a young, rebuilding team to do it. A win against the Cowboys this weekend and they will certainly be "on the radar" to say the least. I think Denver pulls out a tough, scratching win. I have no faith whatsoever in Jason Garrett and Wade Phillips. Should be a good game.
  • Speaking of Jason Garrett - remember when that completely fabricated perception was out there that he was some genius head coach in the making? What was that? I think he had like one interview (Rams maybe?) and then he fell off the radar. They have so many crazy talented weapons on offense and they just look like a general mess, but happen to fall ass backwards into big plays ever 9-13 snaps.
  • Pretty exciting Monday Night game - Packers at Vikings. Believe it or not I think Green Bay wins this game close. It will be a bigger deal for the Pack than the Vikings in the "drama" sense and I think Favre is due a struggle game. I just want Percy Harvin to score like 4 TDs.....which is hard when you're listed as questionable. Damnit.
  • FANTASY UPDATE: I don't know, the wheels may have fallen off in a sense I'm never happy with my roster. I'm resigning to the fact that I'm a juggler. Maybe that's normal, I don't know, but it's more stressful than it should be. I've got two starters that have question marks on playing and only one other player to replace either and he's on a bye week. Ugh - looks like more shuffling. I'm happy with QB - Eli at KC. I'll take that. I'm also taking a look at one Pierre Garcon for Indy. The way Peyton is throwing the ball, I could probably grab 6 catches for 80 yards. Either way, I get the sneaking suspicion that I have no idea what I'm doing.
  • Game of the week - gotta be Jets at Saints. Two undefeated teams square off - will be interesting to see if Ryan can slow down the Drew Brees variety show. I'm betting yes, but not enough. Saints at home. Sanchez is clearly a very good football player, but he ain't Drew Brees. Shockey may murder someone, I don't know. I'm just saying.
  • Yeah, that's it Mangini, Anderson will make the difference.....still going with 0-16 season for Browns. Write it down.
  • I have to think the Steelers go into this game against the Chargers thinking "must win".

Non-Sports Thoughts...
  • I just read that the latest numbers showed that 47% of folks didn't pay taxes this past year. Someone explain that to me. I mean, anyone who thinks this is not crazy, explain that to me.
  • Gotta say, The Cleveland Show was pretty good - lots of promise there. The combo of the "3 buddies" is pretty weird, but real funny. I've got the DVR set so we'll give it a few weeks. The new stepson is pretty damn funny too.
  • I think I'm about ready to give up on Parks and Recreation though. Looks like it should be funny and some of the characters are good, buut...nah.
  • Nothing beats Mad Men.
  • Just so I have this right - Roman Polanski was arrested for and pleaded guilty to having sex with a 13-year old (when he was like 45)? And before being sentence, he flees to France to avoid arrest, right? And now he's been arrested on an international warrant for this crime. Sooo....what's the f'ng problem? He still had sex with a 13-year old when he was 45, right? I mean, what the hell is going on - am I missing something? Why are people so up in arms about him actually being punished for the crime he admitted to? This is nuts. HE RAN AWAY. It's not like he was exiled to some rock in the middle of the ocean, or Siberia or Fort Lauderdale, he was in f'ng France. My gosh, what in the world is going on here?
  • I think this up-and-down market fluctuation is going to be the norm for like 6-9 months, before any real momentum is sustained. No facts or insights to back this up - just my gut feeling. Yeah, I'm that guy.
It's late - my brain is empty and got nothing left. Enjoy the weekend - maybe I'll see you at ACL on Saturday....or Octoberfest on Sunday in Fredericksburg. Just because it's ACL, don't neglect the great, great football that is being provided to you, cable and dish subscribers.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Bud said...

Just to get it in beforehand, I'm picking the Ags; but both teams are going to go 35+ in the game.

Arkansas's defense is miserably bad. Battle tested or not, this game ends with both teams having 400-500 yards and probably 40 points.

It's going to be a track meet and the first team to 50 will win.

10:33 AM  

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