Thursday, October 22, 2009

On the Road Again

Lot of top teams in action and many making some big road trips. This is the time of year - late October and into the first couple of weeks of November - when fatigue starts to set in. A lot of teams are just starting, or at the end of the two-week road trip and that can take it's tole.

Meanwhile, this weekend is the weekend when we'll one (maybe 2) undefeated team fall in the NFL. Want to know more....I guess you'll have to read on (or scroll down).

My "Big game even though it's not a big game" occurs in Baton Rouge this weekend when Auburn visits LSU. Auburn stepped on their you-know-whats the last two weekends; digging themselves too big a hole in Fayatville and then just didn't show up (at home) against Kentucky. At this point, their chances of stealing the south are looking grim as they still get LSU this weekend, Ole Miss, Iron Bowl and Georgia on the road. Sooo, they're playing for pride.

Meanwhile, LSU still has a chance, although I don't see any way they make it through Bama or Arkansas. So my point is this - it's a game where there's a mix of two teams, one who may have some illusions of "we can still do it", while the other is playing for pride. I think it should be a good game. I'm taking Auburn, coming off of two straight losses. It's a tough (and maybe stupid) call, but I've got a feeling.

Auburn - 26
LSU - 20

Danger zone in Columbia, MO for Texas. I'm trying to decide if I'm living on wishful thinking or a true gut feeling on this one. Here's what I know: Texas' offense has been inconsistent at best this year. Texas' defense has saved it's ass on multiple occasions. Colt is sniffing .500 in turnover/TD ratio. Texas' offensive line could be the dark horse for the "most disappointing story of the season" award - they have grossly underachieved. We've seen a couple of Texas players, DJ Monroe and Marquis Goodwin, with one of them disappearing and the other....I'll get back to you after Saturday. Other than the dominating defense, there are question marks.

Meanwhile, my gut is telling me that now that Texas has slugged through the pre-conference (and honestly, were you really that surprised at that?), and gotten the "OU monkey" off it's back, they will be more relaxed. Colt has looked tight and that's been reflected in the entire offense. I'll say it again, someone not named Jordan Shipley needs to step up and make a play offensively. If the team is more relaxed, they'll play better. We haven't seen them look relaxed all year, save for maybe the UTEP game....and that doesn't really count.

Missouri is coming off of 2 losses and look to have peaked early in my humble opinion. I admit, I was high on them early in the season and truly thought they were going to stop Nebraska (which they would have had the game ended after the 3rd quarter), but I think the fact that Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin aren't there anymore is catching up with them. Make no mistake Texas fans, this is a H-U-G-E game for Missouri and will be gunning for Texas like it's their entire season. It won't be enough - I'm looking for a relaxed Texas offense to score quick in this game while the defense does what it does. Don't be too surprised to see the Tigers run a couple of trick plays early - and maybe even convert one - to get some momentum. Fear not, it won't last.

Texas - 47
Missouri - 24

Bringing the magic back in Ann Arbor? Maybe? Penn State travels to Michigan this Saturday afternoon in what will be a match up of stout defense against quick strike, fast-paced offense. I have no idea if Forcier will suit up or not, but I'm assuming he will. Aside from the PSU defense against the Wolverine offense, what will be interesting is to see the flip side. Penn State's offense is clearly down this year, but this isn't a crushing Wolverine defense, not by any stretch of the imagination.

I'm betting on another exciting game for Michigan and they may not eek it out, but I think they will and it will be tight.

Michigan - 27
Penn State - 24

Other College Football Notes:
  • Check out Kansas' remaining schedule: OU, at Tech, at K-State, Nebraska, at Texas, and Mizzou at home. That's brutal.
  • So Tech is down to it's third-string QB this weekend against the Aggies. I'm taking the Red Raiders by 25 and whoever this kid is playing quarterback will throw for about 500 yards.
  • Or...http://fannation.com/blogs/post/470419
  • I've read way too much "Tebow by default in a down year" for the Heisman. They just keep confirming my theory of the Heisman being the biggest joke of an award in any sport on any level.
  • I can't imagine how TCU could not jump Boise State if both teams keep wining.
  • For those of you who really want a playoff in college football (which is all of you) - just pretend like the playoffs start now. If you're talking playoffs for conference races, I can buy that, but that's it.
  • Another big road game in the Big 10 is Iowa at Michigan State. Again, a high-powered offense against a suffocating defense. I would never bet against Iowa...but I wouldn't bet on them either.
  • From the files of "don't be shocked".....don't be shocked to see Washington pull another "upset" against the top of the Pac 10 with Oregon visiting.
  • You want an idea of how bad the Big 12 is this year - Kansas State is in a 3-way tie for first place in the north division. And Colorado trails those 3 teams by a half game (heavy sigh).
  • Two other games of note this weekend: Tennessee visits Bama and TCU visits BYU. Yep, playoffs.
NFL Notes:
  • FANTASY UPDATE: Poor planning on my part, but had a few guys with a bye and had to scramble late. Every one of my offensive starters is playing on the road. That can't be good. BUT, at least there's some Cleveland, Oakland, KC - teams like that in there.
  • Undefeated going down? I'm betting on Pittsburgh taking down the Vikings. Minnesota has had some close calls (and crazy plays) in a couple of their wins and I just think this one maybe too much for them. Big Troy P is back and Roethlisberger is doing his best Joe Montana impression. I like Pittsburgh by 6 in this one.
  • Another "maybe?" upset is New Orleans visiting Miami. Of course, this is just banking on the fact that Brees can't play that good ALL year long, right?
  • Intriguing game of the weekend? Has to be Atlanta at Dallas.
  • Yeah, I'm all sorts of in love with Denver now. They just mauled San Diego from beginning to end - and yet again, the defense ratchets up in the second half. This team is full of talent and at some point, we're going to have to start moving them from the "wow, they won again?" category and start talking seriously about a deep playoff run.
  • And on the other end of the spectrum, how many more years are we going to cross our fingers and hope really hard that the Chargers get their you-know-what together? I mean, they should be better than this, right? They were at home last week for crying out loud.
Unfortunately that's all I got this week - getting settled into the new job (started this week) is going to keep me busy. Ahh, how spoiled I was these last couple of months. Anyway, enjoy yet another great weekend sandwiched between rainy weeks - does it get much better?

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