Thanksgiving Special
My apologies for being a bit off of schedule this week – I’ll chalk it up to it being a holiday week. I’ll include another update sometime this weekend so be sure to check back.
Oh where do I begin; it seems that the sports world has gone and turned itself upside down the last few days. And more importantly, I’ve clearly lost my mojo on picking games – I think I pulled an 0’fer for Saturday’s big match-ups.
First, let’s look at the “game of the century” or whatever the hell you want to call it.
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Let me start by saying that although this was a very good game, I really don’t think it was as close as the “experts” would like to think. Let’s be honest, there was never a point when Michigan’s defense was going to stop Ohio State’s offense – not unless Troy Smith or his center turned the ball over. Without those turnovers (3 in all) how many points did that keep OSU from scoring? Furthermore, Michigan scored off of only 1 of those turnovers. The INT aside, the fumbles were simply miscues (brainfart if you will) by the center – Michigan did not cause those turnovers, rather OSU stopped themselves.
Then you’ve got the “gimme TD” that Michigan got late in the fourth quarter – you knew they were going to score, even OSU knew they were going to score, but all they cared about was getting the ball back because again. Why? Everyone in the whole world knew that Michigan wasn’t going to stop them from running out the clock.
In my opinion, OSU was 2 touchdowns better than Michigan on that Saturday, UM just got a few breaks go their way that helped to keep it close. Don’t get me wrong, they’re a terrific football team – this is more about Ohio State than it is Michigan – the Wolverines are no doubt a top 3-4 team. Easy. I just don’t think anyone is in the same league as Ohio State this year.
Of course this brings me to he larger topic at hand, which is that of a rematch.
Rematch
“These are clearly the two best teams in the country and after seeing this game, a rematch for the national title wouldn’t be so crazy.”
I don’t remember which one of the talking heads I heard say this (oh yea, it was all of them), but I am a bit shocked after hearing this so much. I’m torn here; on one hand, I think a rematch of these two teams for the national title, regardless of what happens with the other teams, is bad for the game and bad for the system of college football. On the other hand, I’m always in favor of anything that further deteriorates the legitimacy of the BCS – like we need anymore of that! Here are my five reasons for being against this rematch:
1. No one can accurately say, right now, that these are the two best teams
I can’t believe that so many people would attempt to make this assertion. This particular debate is so completely subjective, there is no right or wrong. The closest these guys have come to proving any such theory is the fact that each of them has a fairly impressive road win against an upper echelon team – Michigan winning at Notre Dame and OSU winning at Texas. Then, both teams navigated through an extremely mediocre Big 10 – with OSU avoiding a very good 11-1 Wisconsin team this year (yet another reason why the Big 10 sucks – have the best teams play each other!). Neither team has ventured into the very tough SEC or ACC this year – two conferences that, from top to bottom, have some very good talent. Michigan had their chance and came up short. It was a good game, but they lost. Next.
Furthermore, how can Michigan go and lose a game while USC goes and beats a top 12 opponent and neither of them moves in the polls? Which brings me to my next point.
2. A rematch would diminish the importance of winning over losing
Just as I said above – how can a team lose while the team below them beats a ranked team and they NOT switch places - because of a few 100ths of a computer’s point? We’ve seen this a couple of times before: 2 years ago when Oklahoma went into the Big 12 championship game against Kansas State, lost and then still played for the national title. The bad thing in that instance was that OU knew that regardless of the outcome, they would still go to the title game. The other instance came 5 years ago when Nebraska got destroyed by Colorado in their last game of the year and missed the conference championship game altogether, but played for the national title (more on this one below). Where’s the motivation? Where’s the respect for competition? And more importantly, where’s the importance of winning your games?
In this day and age, we place so much importance on winning your games. Moreover, in era of the BCS, winning is everything – you win your games, you stay alive for a shot at a title (unless you’re in a non-BCS conference of course). Looking at all the warts of the BCS, and there are a lot, I think this is one of the biggest and ugliest – you don’t reward a team for losing a game, much less a team from a conference that doesn’t play a conference championship. Which brings me to my third point.
3. A rematch would diminish the importance of winning your conference
All things being equal in our current system, I can’t imagine that anyone would consider sending a team to the national title game who didn’t win their own conference. How can a team deserve a shot at a national title when they can’t even win their own “regional” title? If we’re going to have that system, why even have conferences to begin with? And furthermore, why have conference championship games? OK, I know, that’s another discussion for another day.
Although they don’t have a conference championship game, OSU is the undisputed Big 10 champ (that didn’t have to play the other of the top 3 teams in the conference) this year. End of discussion. Same with USC in the Pac 10 – they’re the conference champs right now, regardless of what happens the rest of the way. So you have to consider these guys before you consider Michigan, right? It’s common sense, right? In the two examples above of Oklahoma and Nebraska – both ended up going to the title game and getting shellacked – Nebraska was utterly destroyed by Miami and LSU beat up on OU.
SO WHY IS THERE A PART OF ME THAT WANTS THIS REMATCH????
Because as I said, anything that moves the BCS closer to its death is OK with me. Should this rematch happen, I predict that you’ll start to see the powers that be a little more vocal, and even critical, about the system.
At the end of the day, I don’t think it’s going to happen. But it makes for good ranting.
Another big weekend ahead – some pretty important games being played. Let’s look..
TEXAS A&M (8-3) at TEXAS (9-2)
When you look at these teams and the season they’ve had, it would certainly appear that Texas has quite an edge – and they probably do.
But this is a rivalry game and one that usually goes in cycles. Texas has won 6 straight and in looking at the short-term outlook for these programs, you don’t see a whole lot of opportunity to reverse that trend.
Which team needs this win more? I think you have to go with Texas. If they lose this game and miss out on the conference title game, that would be considered a very poor season in these parts. To go from “being in the hunt for the title game” to playing in the Cotton Bowl in 3 weeks would not bode well going into next season.
Here are 5 names:
Rashad Babino
Brian Robison
Michael Griffin
Jamaal Charles
Jordan Shipley
If we can get big (almost career) games – making big plays, no penalties, no turnovers – out of these guys, Texas wins by 2 and a half touchdowns or more. Specifically, Jordan Shipley, this kid is a playmaker. I think we need to try and put the ball in his hands more often.
On the flip side, if the aggies are able to: a) force 2+ turnovers, b) get to the QB often, and c) complete 4+ big plays (25+ yards) – they will either win the game or certainly be in a position to do so. The aggies will try and keep this close down to the wire.
Texas will also need a big day out of their special teams – which has been less than stellar this year. They simply can’t give up points on punt/kickoffs. And look for Greg Davis and Mack Brown to open it up a bit – at the end of the day Fran simply should not be able to out coach Mack and Davis…right?
Bottom line I think Texas wins this game easy. When you look back at their body of work in the Mack Brown era, they usually play some of their best ball following a loss. That coupled with them playing at home – I think we’ll see an inspired Texas defense looking for redemption – they seem to be comfortable with that role.
Texas – 38
Aggettes – 17
LSU (9-2) at ARKANSAS (10-1)
I’m not putting a whole lot into the Ole Miss close call last week for the Tigers. This team is talented as hell; they just can’t seem to consistently put it together. Les Miles’ record in road big games is not great and Arkansas is playing some very good ball right now. BUT, it will be interesting to see how McFadden does against that wicked LSU defensive line. Consistent or not, these guys are big and fast and they hit hard!
The one concern is LSU’s motivation. Does the idea of playing spoiler motivate these guys? I think in some of their more lackluster game they (at least Russell) seem nonchalant. That coupled with the Les Miles history doesn’t look good. LSU is capable of winning this game – without a doubt. But, I think Arkansas is got its sights set on blowing through the last 2 games.
Arkansas – 27
LSU – 21
NOTRE DAME (10-1) at USC (9-1)
Notre Dame is giving up 326 yards and 21 points per game this season. To give you an idea of the best offense they’ve faced this year – it was Purdue. The point is, USC’s offense just may have a field day…literally.
Now, to be fair, I’m sure there has been an actual improvement as the year has gone on, but the numbers are the numbers.
I think Notre Dame will come in and play very inspired football early, but one play will open it up. Look for a punt/kickoff return for a TD, or a 50-yard TD bomb to Steve Smith somewhere in the 2nd quarter. From there, the floodgates will open. USC in a route:
USC – 42
Notre Dame – 21
OTHER GAMES TO WATCH
• Georgia Tech over Miami by 17+
• FSU in an almost upset – Florida by a TD or less
• Virginia Tech by 30 over Miami
NFL NOTES
• Nice win by the Cowboys. I’m not a fan of the team, but that was certainly impressive. Heard a term I’ve got to share – I might be becoming a “Romo-Sexual”. YES, it’s funny. Seriously, this guy is pretty damn good and he’s fun to watch. Don’t be surprised to see him take one on the chin (figuratively speaking, of course) in one of their remaining games and how he may respond. But for now, he’s playing very well.
• Damn shame about Donovan McNabb – that’s bad luck.
• It will be interesting to see when the Giants will hit rock bottom – they are on a serious free fall. I predict Caughlin is gone after this year. I’m not sure, but it seems like he’s pissed off a lot of folks.
• You have to wonder when the Michael Vick show is going to take the next step. The team’s lack of success isn’t squarely on his shoulders, but he’s definitely not playing well. He’s in year 6. Tick, tick. I hope he’s able to take the next step before it all ends for him, I just don’t see it happening.
• The NFC sucks.
• Is this the year Marty gets over the hump? Chargers look scary good with Rivers and Tomlinson
• And speaking of Tomlinson - this guy has already broken a handfull of records, but he may be on track to shatter some others. He's pretty spectacular to watch.
• Manning and Brees are the top 2 quarterbacks right now – give it one more week and another game like last week and Phillip Rivers will be right there with them.
• Do you think the Chargers, and more specifically Rivers, kind of get a kick out of Eli’s struggles? I think so.
• Bears at Pats on Sunday – game of the weekend. Will tell a lot.
QUICK NBA HITS
• I know it’s early, but it’s almost guarantee time – there’s just about zero chance that the Heat will repeat as NBA champs. Shaq’s out with an injury and I’m betting it won’t be his last. Wade is fantastic, but I just don’t think he can carry this team like he did last year – not two consecutive years and coming off international play in the summer. They look tired and it’s only been a dozen games.
• San Antonio is looking quite good and quite healthy. They’ve got a skip in their step – I don’t remember that of late.
• WARNING, BIASED COMMENT: I’m not declaring anyone champs right now, but the Lakers have looked like a different Laker team of late. Communication, passing, Odom playing with more consistency – it’s all good. It’s a long season and we’ll see how it goes, but Kobe looks like he’s feeling no pain and you just have to hope that Bynum continues to develop. Lakers will be a 6 seed or better in the playoffs this year. Write it down.
• Yao, please dunk that!
• Up-in-coming team to pay attention to – Orlando Magic. Dwight Howard is a beast. It’s early, and they’re looking pretty good, but they’ve got Washington and Miami in their division.
Have a great Turkey Day – check back before the end of the weekend for an update.
Oh where do I begin; it seems that the sports world has gone and turned itself upside down the last few days. And more importantly, I’ve clearly lost my mojo on picking games – I think I pulled an 0’fer for Saturday’s big match-ups.
First, let’s look at the “game of the century” or whatever the hell you want to call it.
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Let me start by saying that although this was a very good game, I really don’t think it was as close as the “experts” would like to think. Let’s be honest, there was never a point when Michigan’s defense was going to stop Ohio State’s offense – not unless Troy Smith or his center turned the ball over. Without those turnovers (3 in all) how many points did that keep OSU from scoring? Furthermore, Michigan scored off of only 1 of those turnovers. The INT aside, the fumbles were simply miscues (brainfart if you will) by the center – Michigan did not cause those turnovers, rather OSU stopped themselves.
Then you’ve got the “gimme TD” that Michigan got late in the fourth quarter – you knew they were going to score, even OSU knew they were going to score, but all they cared about was getting the ball back because again. Why? Everyone in the whole world knew that Michigan wasn’t going to stop them from running out the clock.
In my opinion, OSU was 2 touchdowns better than Michigan on that Saturday, UM just got a few breaks go their way that helped to keep it close. Don’t get me wrong, they’re a terrific football team – this is more about Ohio State than it is Michigan – the Wolverines are no doubt a top 3-4 team. Easy. I just don’t think anyone is in the same league as Ohio State this year.
Of course this brings me to he larger topic at hand, which is that of a rematch.
Rematch
“These are clearly the two best teams in the country and after seeing this game, a rematch for the national title wouldn’t be so crazy.”
I don’t remember which one of the talking heads I heard say this (oh yea, it was all of them), but I am a bit shocked after hearing this so much. I’m torn here; on one hand, I think a rematch of these two teams for the national title, regardless of what happens with the other teams, is bad for the game and bad for the system of college football. On the other hand, I’m always in favor of anything that further deteriorates the legitimacy of the BCS – like we need anymore of that! Here are my five reasons for being against this rematch:
1. No one can accurately say, right now, that these are the two best teams
I can’t believe that so many people would attempt to make this assertion. This particular debate is so completely subjective, there is no right or wrong. The closest these guys have come to proving any such theory is the fact that each of them has a fairly impressive road win against an upper echelon team – Michigan winning at Notre Dame and OSU winning at Texas. Then, both teams navigated through an extremely mediocre Big 10 – with OSU avoiding a very good 11-1 Wisconsin team this year (yet another reason why the Big 10 sucks – have the best teams play each other!). Neither team has ventured into the very tough SEC or ACC this year – two conferences that, from top to bottom, have some very good talent. Michigan had their chance and came up short. It was a good game, but they lost. Next.
Furthermore, how can Michigan go and lose a game while USC goes and beats a top 12 opponent and neither of them moves in the polls? Which brings me to my next point.
2. A rematch would diminish the importance of winning over losing
Just as I said above – how can a team lose while the team below them beats a ranked team and they NOT switch places - because of a few 100ths of a computer’s point? We’ve seen this a couple of times before: 2 years ago when Oklahoma went into the Big 12 championship game against Kansas State, lost and then still played for the national title. The bad thing in that instance was that OU knew that regardless of the outcome, they would still go to the title game. The other instance came 5 years ago when Nebraska got destroyed by Colorado in their last game of the year and missed the conference championship game altogether, but played for the national title (more on this one below). Where’s the motivation? Where’s the respect for competition? And more importantly, where’s the importance of winning your games?
In this day and age, we place so much importance on winning your games. Moreover, in era of the BCS, winning is everything – you win your games, you stay alive for a shot at a title (unless you’re in a non-BCS conference of course). Looking at all the warts of the BCS, and there are a lot, I think this is one of the biggest and ugliest – you don’t reward a team for losing a game, much less a team from a conference that doesn’t play a conference championship. Which brings me to my third point.
3. A rematch would diminish the importance of winning your conference
All things being equal in our current system, I can’t imagine that anyone would consider sending a team to the national title game who didn’t win their own conference. How can a team deserve a shot at a national title when they can’t even win their own “regional” title? If we’re going to have that system, why even have conferences to begin with? And furthermore, why have conference championship games? OK, I know, that’s another discussion for another day.
Although they don’t have a conference championship game, OSU is the undisputed Big 10 champ (that didn’t have to play the other of the top 3 teams in the conference) this year. End of discussion. Same with USC in the Pac 10 – they’re the conference champs right now, regardless of what happens the rest of the way. So you have to consider these guys before you consider Michigan, right? It’s common sense, right? In the two examples above of Oklahoma and Nebraska – both ended up going to the title game and getting shellacked – Nebraska was utterly destroyed by Miami and LSU beat up on OU.
SO WHY IS THERE A PART OF ME THAT WANTS THIS REMATCH????
Because as I said, anything that moves the BCS closer to its death is OK with me. Should this rematch happen, I predict that you’ll start to see the powers that be a little more vocal, and even critical, about the system.
At the end of the day, I don’t think it’s going to happen. But it makes for good ranting.
Another big weekend ahead – some pretty important games being played. Let’s look..
TEXAS A&M (8-3) at TEXAS (9-2)
When you look at these teams and the season they’ve had, it would certainly appear that Texas has quite an edge – and they probably do.
But this is a rivalry game and one that usually goes in cycles. Texas has won 6 straight and in looking at the short-term outlook for these programs, you don’t see a whole lot of opportunity to reverse that trend.
Which team needs this win more? I think you have to go with Texas. If they lose this game and miss out on the conference title game, that would be considered a very poor season in these parts. To go from “being in the hunt for the title game” to playing in the Cotton Bowl in 3 weeks would not bode well going into next season.
Here are 5 names:
Rashad Babino
Brian Robison
Michael Griffin
Jamaal Charles
Jordan Shipley
If we can get big (almost career) games – making big plays, no penalties, no turnovers – out of these guys, Texas wins by 2 and a half touchdowns or more. Specifically, Jordan Shipley, this kid is a playmaker. I think we need to try and put the ball in his hands more often.
On the flip side, if the aggies are able to: a) force 2+ turnovers, b) get to the QB often, and c) complete 4+ big plays (25+ yards) – they will either win the game or certainly be in a position to do so. The aggies will try and keep this close down to the wire.
Texas will also need a big day out of their special teams – which has been less than stellar this year. They simply can’t give up points on punt/kickoffs. And look for Greg Davis and Mack Brown to open it up a bit – at the end of the day Fran simply should not be able to out coach Mack and Davis…right?
Bottom line I think Texas wins this game easy. When you look back at their body of work in the Mack Brown era, they usually play some of their best ball following a loss. That coupled with them playing at home – I think we’ll see an inspired Texas defense looking for redemption – they seem to be comfortable with that role.
Texas – 38
Aggettes – 17
LSU (9-2) at ARKANSAS (10-1)
I’m not putting a whole lot into the Ole Miss close call last week for the Tigers. This team is talented as hell; they just can’t seem to consistently put it together. Les Miles’ record in road big games is not great and Arkansas is playing some very good ball right now. BUT, it will be interesting to see how McFadden does against that wicked LSU defensive line. Consistent or not, these guys are big and fast and they hit hard!
The one concern is LSU’s motivation. Does the idea of playing spoiler motivate these guys? I think in some of their more lackluster game they (at least Russell) seem nonchalant. That coupled with the Les Miles history doesn’t look good. LSU is capable of winning this game – without a doubt. But, I think Arkansas is got its sights set on blowing through the last 2 games.
Arkansas – 27
LSU – 21
NOTRE DAME (10-1) at USC (9-1)
Notre Dame is giving up 326 yards and 21 points per game this season. To give you an idea of the best offense they’ve faced this year – it was Purdue. The point is, USC’s offense just may have a field day…literally.
Now, to be fair, I’m sure there has been an actual improvement as the year has gone on, but the numbers are the numbers.
I think Notre Dame will come in and play very inspired football early, but one play will open it up. Look for a punt/kickoff return for a TD, or a 50-yard TD bomb to Steve Smith somewhere in the 2nd quarter. From there, the floodgates will open. USC in a route:
USC – 42
Notre Dame – 21
OTHER GAMES TO WATCH
• Georgia Tech over Miami by 17+
• FSU in an almost upset – Florida by a TD or less
• Virginia Tech by 30 over Miami
NFL NOTES
• Nice win by the Cowboys. I’m not a fan of the team, but that was certainly impressive. Heard a term I’ve got to share – I might be becoming a “Romo-Sexual”. YES, it’s funny. Seriously, this guy is pretty damn good and he’s fun to watch. Don’t be surprised to see him take one on the chin (figuratively speaking, of course) in one of their remaining games and how he may respond. But for now, he’s playing very well.
• Damn shame about Donovan McNabb – that’s bad luck.
• It will be interesting to see when the Giants will hit rock bottom – they are on a serious free fall. I predict Caughlin is gone after this year. I’m not sure, but it seems like he’s pissed off a lot of folks.
• You have to wonder when the Michael Vick show is going to take the next step. The team’s lack of success isn’t squarely on his shoulders, but he’s definitely not playing well. He’s in year 6. Tick, tick. I hope he’s able to take the next step before it all ends for him, I just don’t see it happening.
• The NFC sucks.
• Is this the year Marty gets over the hump? Chargers look scary good with Rivers and Tomlinson
• And speaking of Tomlinson - this guy has already broken a handfull of records, but he may be on track to shatter some others. He's pretty spectacular to watch.
• Manning and Brees are the top 2 quarterbacks right now – give it one more week and another game like last week and Phillip Rivers will be right there with them.
• Do you think the Chargers, and more specifically Rivers, kind of get a kick out of Eli’s struggles? I think so.
• Bears at Pats on Sunday – game of the weekend. Will tell a lot.
QUICK NBA HITS
• I know it’s early, but it’s almost guarantee time – there’s just about zero chance that the Heat will repeat as NBA champs. Shaq’s out with an injury and I’m betting it won’t be his last. Wade is fantastic, but I just don’t think he can carry this team like he did last year – not two consecutive years and coming off international play in the summer. They look tired and it’s only been a dozen games.
• San Antonio is looking quite good and quite healthy. They’ve got a skip in their step – I don’t remember that of late.
• WARNING, BIASED COMMENT: I’m not declaring anyone champs right now, but the Lakers have looked like a different Laker team of late. Communication, passing, Odom playing with more consistency – it’s all good. It’s a long season and we’ll see how it goes, but Kobe looks like he’s feeling no pain and you just have to hope that Bynum continues to develop. Lakers will be a 6 seed or better in the playoffs this year. Write it down.
• Yao, please dunk that!
• Up-in-coming team to pay attention to – Orlando Magic. Dwight Howard is a beast. It’s early, and they’re looking pretty good, but they’ve got Washington and Miami in their division.
Have a great Turkey Day – check back before the end of the weekend for an update.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 6:17 PM
2 Comments:
Great post Ryan...
I agree with you on the Conference championships and the BCS. All the conferences should have them or we should not have them at all, there should be no in between. That's such an obvious thing to me and I can't believe they don't change it. The BCS should start requiring a victory in a conference championship game before you're even considered for a BCS bowl or at least the National Championship game.
Chad (Out of the closet "Romosexual")
To Chad's point on the BCS and conference championships: There was discussion a few years back (after the Nebraska debacle) where the powers that be would consider implementing a rule that says you must win your conference before being considered for the title game. They did not pass it and they probably won't. Why? Because the powers that be, who happen to be conference/school presidents, realized that the rule would potentially diminish one of their team's chances of getting to the title game. Yet again another decission made that's bad for the game, but good for their pocket books.
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