Thursday, October 26, 2006

What to Watch This Weekend

Lots of good games this weekend and most with some pretty significant implications across the country.

First off, a fond farewell to Clemson who was absolutely smashed by Virginia Tech tonight 24-7. Makes you think the Georgia Tech win may have taken it all out of them - especially on a short week. They've got 2 conference losses now so they'll need help and obviously to win out.

Let's look at a few of the key matchups this weekend.

TENNESSEE (6-1) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (5-2)
After an apparent let down last weekend against Alabama, look for the passing attack to have a bounce-back game this weekend. South Carolina's ability to keep this close will depend on how well they contain the Vols offense. After last week I imagine they might have some things to prove. I'm Tennessee here in an impressive road win.
Tenn - 28
S. Carolina - 17

FLORIDA (6-1) AT GEORGIA (6-2)
It's time yet again for the "rivalry-formerly-known-as-the-largest-outdoor-cocktail-party" in Jacksonville, Florida. On paper, this doesn't look good at all for the Bulldogs. They're struggling on offense and Florida just happens to have a very gifted, very fast and VERY rested defense. I guess you have to say that with rivalries like this you can throw the records out the window - it's true, Georgia isn't near as good as it's 6-2 record. Florida should roll here - great matchup for them coming off of a bye week. And look for Chris Leak to bounce back and have a solid game this week.
Florida - 34
Georgia - 13

OKLAHOMA (5-2) AT MISSOURI (6-1)*
I'm starring this one because I think it's one of those games that although you may not have anything at stake here, it should prove to be a great one. Both of these schools are really looking to this game to help them bounce back on track for the remainder of the season. And Missouri really needs this win to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 North. Oklahoma's defense has looked much better the last couple of days (at least statistically), albeit against a couple of doormat teams of the conference (Iowa State and Colorado). Nonetheless, confidence is what they need now and a win here would certainly be a boost.

Missouri on the other hand simply has a better team right now - they certainly have the better QB and they're playing at home. I think Mizzou will squeak out the win here - they've got the bulk of the pressure here not only from a player perspective, but with the coaches as well. They had a big part to play in that disappointing loss in College Station. I'll look for Mizzou to come out firing, but OU will keep it close up until the end.
Missouri - 27
Oklahoma - 21

TEXAS A&M (7-1) AT BAYLOR (4-4)
Don't let Baylor's record fool you - they are 3-1 in conference, just like the aggies. This game is interesting on a couple of levels. First off, for whatever reason, Baylor has had the aggies number the last couple of years. The last two games went into OT where the teams split the victories. One could even argue that personnel wise, Baylor has a better team now than in the past and the Aggies have a less talented team - specifically the loss of Reggie McNeal. Furthermore, this game actually has Big 12 South implications (when was the last time you could say that). If the aggies are able to win this game and win the remainder of their games heading into Austin, they would have a shot at playing for the conference title (if they can beat Texas). But that's getting a little over zealous.

I expect this game to be a shootout and yet another tight game. Baylor's offense is really clicking and starting to hit it's stride which isn't good news for the Aggie defense. Although improving slightly, they do have a ways to go. Look for Shawn Bell to pick the aggie secondary apart with 5-8 yard plays on long, sustained drives. Where the Bears will have their problems is stopping the plethora of Aggie running backs - especially Javorski Lane. Baylor needs to stop the run first and force the game into McGee's hands. On the other hand, although not glowing with killer stats, I think McGee only has 1 interception on the year. He may not beat you on big plays, but he doesn't make mistakes. I look for this to be a tightly fought game - the Aggies simply have too much experience in winning tight games these days. Aggies win this one by a field goal in the final minute.
Texas A&M - 31
Baylor - 30

TEXAS (7-1) AT TEXAS TECH (5-2)
Can you say trap game here? Yes, I know Tech is having a pretty mediocre season at best. Yes, I know Texas' offense is getting better each day. Yes, I know this team proved it can win tight games on the road last week.

BUT, we've got a pretty banged up defense (Lockey out for year, Griffin and T. Brown still nursing lingering injuries, Robinson and Crowder were banged up again last week). Yes, this Texas team is deep and I'm always for giving our younger guys experience in big games like this. We commit stupid penalties. This, for whatever reason (coaching) continues to rear it's ugly head from time to time - but it's every single year. The two personal foul penalties in the Nebraska game were just mindless. Penalties like is exactly the sliver of opportunity that Tech needs to change a game.

I know they've struggled quite a bit this year, but I promise you this. Those players, coaches and fans will have instant amnesia the moment this game kicks off. In their minds, they win this game, season is over and it's a success. Beating the Aggs and beating the Longhorns would cap their, in other respects, very mediocre season.

With that said, I am not saying that Texas will lose this game. Not at all, but I am offering the possibility that it's not entirely out of the question. It could happen. In fact, Lubbock is the only place where Texas has lost more than once since the Big 12 was formed. And, Texas has won the previous 3 games in this series - that hasn't happened in 20 years and they've NEVER won 4 straight.

But in the end, Tech has an extremely shaky QB and that's where it all starts with them. Texas' fast and athletic defense should be able to get pressure on Harrell and when that happens it will be on like Donkey Kong. When Texas forces turnovers, they absolutely route the Red Raiders. On the flip side, and along the same lines as the penalties, we cannot give them freebie opportunities. I think Texas continues to show strong improvement and reminds the country that they are a top team in this race.
Texas - 49
Texas Tech - 24

KEEP AN EYE ON...
Nebraska visiting Okie State. That game against the Longhorns may have taken it out of them. They had a victory in their hands and let it go. How one responds to games like that often defines the team down the stretch. Nebraska should win, but don't be surprised if Okie State smells blood and pounces.

QUARTERBACK CAROUSSEL
I've been meaning to talk about this for a few weeks and just keep forgetting. Thanks for the post on this from last week. I'm talking of course of the interesting situation brewing at the QB position here at Texas - more specifically, what will transpire following this season.

Here's the situation - we currently have one Colt McCoy who, barring some horrible injury, has pretty much sewed up the starting job at QB for the next year at least. That leaves one Jeavan Sneed, a fine young prospect (one of nation's best high schoolers last year) and a true freshman. Essentially, the two have equal amount of eligibility remaining. Then you throw in John Brantley - a highly touted recruit out of Florida who continues (along with his father) that Texas is where he'll be coming. Now, before we go crazy, let's remember that Texas has had a couple of high-profile QBs jump ship at the last second recently - Ryan "No Clue on the Last Name" Perriloux (to LSU) and Mitch Mustain to Arkansas. But, as of now, Brantley says he's coming.

Here's how I see it playing out - if Brantley does in fact keep his word and come to Texas, Sneed will be gone so fast we'll barely remember he was here in two years. The thing is, he's a very good QB and the way it's looking, he may never get to start a game, again barring any injury. He could be a starter, or have a better shot, at MANY other schools. I see him going pretty much regardless. But where to? Well, there are a couple of schools off the top of my head that would be interesting fits - Aggies, Tech and OU - but he would never do that as you lose 2 years of eligibility when transferring in conference. Plus, Brantley knows he can come in and redshirt and have two years to himself. And given the way Texas reloads these days, there shouldn't be any reason why he couldn't have a good shot at a title season, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

I'm sure Sneed will get plenty of good looks - he's too good not to. I can see Joe Paterno having an interest in Sneed's qualities. Somewhere in the midwest or southeast - where strong running games and efficient passing games rule.

BY THE WAY...
I know we all bash on the Big East, but did you know that they have 3 teams in the top 15 of the BCS? 2 of those in the top 10. Not too bad.

SHAFT SIGHTING
So I got a call from a friend this evening asking me to check out ESPN 2 as North Carolina A&T was visiting Bethune-Cookman College. "Why?" is the obvious question, right? It's because it was evident that BCC had invented a time machine, gone back into the 70s and got Shaft come coach their game. This guy was wearing a tan/khaki outfit - matching pants, belt and shirt. BUT, the shirt was unbuttoned down to the naval; he was wearing sunglasses (night game); and he was wearing, that's right, a gold chain. It was unreal. If you can go find a recap of the game maybe you can catch a shot of the coach - it was great.

On top of that, it was an ESPN-U preview being showed on ESPN 2. So what the network is telling me is that if I subscribe to ESPN-U I may be able to catch all of North Carolina's A&T games?? Sign me up.

By the way, NCA&T lost 70-7.

Have a good weekend, keep the comments coming (any of them) and we'll do it again next week.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe any one of the Big 12 south teams could lose to another Big 12 south team, including Texas. I would not be surprised if Texas loses one more game to another Big 12 south team; either Oklahoma State or Texas A&M could beat them.

5:49 PM  

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