Monday, October 16, 2006

Expect the Unexpected

That was the motto for this weekend. What a wild Saturday, chalk full of some mind-boggling upsets. You just knew it was bound to happen; the upset bug has been lurking and finally reared it's ugly head on Saturday (and Thursday).

Before we jump in and recap some of the big stories of the weekend, let me welcome you to my first ever blog. After much recommendation and consideration, I've decided to take it to another level. The primary reason is to give everyone a chance to jump in on the action and post some of your comments. Secondly, if I'm ever going to have any chance to have someone pay me for these tirades, this is the best place to start.

OK, with that, let's jump and recap a wild weekend of upsets.

AUBURN - 27 and FLORIDA - 17:
Yet again, two SEC powerhouses slugged it out on Saturday night for quite a show. Auburn proved, as I predicted, that when playing against top competition at home, they are a force to be reckoned with. Well that and key mistakes by Chris Leak in the second half. As predicted, Florida's defense was up for the challenge - don't be fooled by the final score, it was within reach at the end of the game, but a last-second INT returned for a meaningless touchdown gave the feel of a more lop-sided game than it was.

Auburn's kicker hit 4 of 5 field goals, but the fourth was an important one as it put the Tigers up by 4 (instead of 1) - leaving Florida no choice, but to score a TD in the last couple of minutes. And, it came after he missed an earlier field goal of similar distance. It ended up being unnecessary because of costly Florida turnovers, but who knew it at the time? Kudos to the kicker for coming back in and redeeming himself.

Tommy Tuberville was right - it's almost impossible for an SEC team to make it to the national championship game without a playoff because of the SEC's grueling schedules. Well Tommy, I'd like to think that you could get your wish someday, but I gave up on the idea that the powers that be will do everything possible to make college football as good as it can be long ago. Enjoy the Gator bowl.

OHIO STATE - 38 and MICHIGAN STATE - 7:
And so much for Michigan State looking to save some face this year. Ohio State is a tremendous team and the clear #1 team right now, but you would have hoped that MSU, in their last chance at a HUGE upset, would have played with more passion - at home no doubt. This team is D.O.N.E. this year and I'll be honest, they may struggle to win 2 of their remaining 5 games. There's really not much more to say here - OSU is rolling past teams, and will continue to probably do so until November 18th when the Wolverines come calling. Let's hope both teams can make it undefeated and set up a great game with MAJOR national championship implications - certainly major bowl implications.

TEXAS A&M - 25 and MISSOURI 19:
I don't know why, but this game really had me going (doing more talking than normal to the TV). This was a very weird game - especially in the first half. To all you aggie fans out there, let me just remind you of this - Missouri's errors kept you in this game in the first half. Takeaway the three turnovers in the first half and this game was over. With that said, I will say that the aggies both outplayed and (can't believe I'm saying this) outcoached the Tigers in the second half, I will give them credit for that. This was an absolutely enormous win for the aggies, especially being on their home turf. On the flip side, the aggies are not a pretty bad football team right now - these two teams play again 5 times and Missouri would win 3 out of 5 easily.

After handing the aggies 3 turnovers (all of the A&M points coming off of turnovers), the Tigers were fortunate to go into halftime tied at 17. Then, on the second play of the second half, the aggie center snaps the ball over McGee's head for a safety - Tigers lead 19-17. After that, it's as if the Tiger coaching staff froze up. The play calling and decision making from there on out was terrible. Case in point was the fake field goal attempt that led to zero points. I'm sorry, but by this time in the game, the aggie running game was being to wear down the front seven of Mizzou - you're on the road, you have to take the points. After that, the Tigers game plan became predictable and conservative and the aggies took advantage.

It's too bad that Mizzou loss THIS game in this fashion, but give the aggies credit for sticking with it and playing tough to finish out - if I'm a Missouri coach, this loss is haunting me the rest of this year.

Memo to the Aggies - I know you've got quite a stable of running backs to work with and the goal is to get equal experience for all of them. BUT, if I were you I would be doing 2 things: 1) J. Lane has to improve on his conditioning. That guy can't run more than about 3 plays in a row without having to come out of the game. He needs to focus his offseason training on this - he's already got plenty of power (watch how defenders literally bounce off of him). And 2) Lane has to start getting the bulk of the carries. You've got a guy who, barring #1 above, can literally carry your team which will make McGee's life much easier. I would agree that Lane is not the guy to run the option with McGee, but in pure handoff situations, he has to get the bulk of carries.

MICHIGAN - 17 and PENN STATE - 10:
A lot of people would think that Michigan may have had a down game here given the score. Quite the contrary. This was a good, tough game of two pretty damn good Big 10 schools. And we all know how Big 10 football is played - in the trenches with tough, physical defenses and field position. Unlike the Pac 10, they focus on defense up in the midwest.

The key to this game was turnovers - Michigan had none and that's what it came down to. Without Super Mario at receiver, Michigan gave a healthy dose of Mike Hart (112 yards and a TD) and efficient throwing by Henne (50% passing with 196 yards and and a TD). It's really that simple. PSU isn't a bad team this year, they're just playing against some pretty hefty competition. Meanwhile, Michigan is damn good and the fact that they're NOT #2 in the BCS right now is criminal - more on this below...

TEXAS - 63 and BAYLOR - 31:
Alright Longhorn fans, after all the upsets on Saturday, who was nervous going into the second quarter of this game with Texas down 10-0 (I'm raising my hand and you should be raising yours). Next thing I knew, I blinked and it was 28-10.

You just knew, and I think Texas did too, that Baylor was going to come out with a huge energy surge - and that they did. At one point in the first quarter, if remember correctly, I think Baylor had just over 100 yards of total offense and Texas had like 6. I thought I was watching David McWilliams in the old Southwest Conference days. Then, the real Texas showed up.

It was funny, I remember thinking as I was watching the game (and after the game) how Colt McCoy didn't look entirely sharp. Oh sure, he broke a school record for TD passes in a game (6), but I felt like it was more of his receivers making great catches off of mediocre throws. There were a number of times when the receivers had to adjust to make the catch or slow down/change their route to get the ball. Then, I looked at his passing stats the next morning and my eyes almost popped out - 21 of 32 for 275 yards and 6 TDs (1 INT and it should have been more). I think that's a QB rating of over 195 - HOLY COW! I would have never thought that as I watched, but yet here we are.

What I like most about McCoy was that after the game, he hit on this topic precisely. He knows he wasn't sharp and he knows he made some bad throws and bad decisions that his receivers bailed him out on - did you see the catch in the end zone by Jermichael Finley? The ball was underthrown (yet again) and heading straight for the numbers of the defender until the big tight end literally reached down and snatched the ball out of his arms - it was great and the second such play for Finley this year. BUT, the point is, it was a terrible decision to throw that ball - and again, Colt knew it and said as much after the game. And I hate to say it, but his arm strength is not quite what we had hoped. Don't get me wrong, he's getting better each week and growing up a lot, but he needs to work on making sharper throws and improving his arm strength. The good news is he's got a ton of experienced and talented receivers around him.

And finally, kudos to Guy Morris and Baylor - this is not the same Baylor team we know and love from years past. This team is on the right track for improvement. And if you look at their remaining games, they've got a shot to come out and make some noise this year - potential wins include Kansas, aggies, Okie state and Tech.

OTHER NOTABLE UPSETS FROM THE WEEKEND
Vandy24/Georgia 22:
OK, I think we're just about done with Georgia this year. Yes, they're having a down year after losing quite a few players, but a Cutler-less Vandy??? C'mon, that's terrible.

Colorado 30/TxTech 6:
This game wasn't on television so I don't even know where to begin here - and by the way, Tech got their lone touchdown in the fourth quarter. I couldn't even find this game on some scoreboard pages online. I suspect Tech will be re-evaluating the QB situation here. Congrats to the Buffs for getting that first win of the year. Thanks a lot Tech, you just killed everyone's SOS.

Indiana 31/Iowa 28:
Something to note here - Iowa visits Michigan next weekend. You think they'll be just a little bit pissed? Michigan had better prepare for this game like it's their last. After this game, they get a cream-puff schedule until they visit Columbus.

Boston College 22/VaTech 3:
You know it's a weird year when Georgia Tech, BC and Clemson are the top dogs in the ACC. Clemson should win this conference outright (and the conference championship game).

HEARTBREAKER IN NORMAN:
No, the Sooners did not get upset by Iowa State, not even close. Rather, on a day when Adrian Peterson's father was in the stands watching him play in person for the first time since Pee-Wee football, and on a day when he was having a very Peterson-esque game of 186 yards and a couple of TDs, the all-everything running back broke his collarbone and will likely miss the rest of the season. Look, I'm a longhorn fan and by default, I really don't like anything having to do with OU. BUT, I'm a very big college football fan and as much as I hate to say it, players like Peterson are good for the game. Coaches like Stoops are good for the game. And after an all-world (and heisman-deserving performance) freshman year, AP spent his sophomore year seeing very limited action with a nagging and serious ankle injury. He was clearly back in AP form this year until now. It's a shame and you feel for him. BUT, it's a collarbone injury and one that simply does not keep RBs down. I still say he goes pro and I can't imagine there are any doubts by the NFL scouts/coaches that he'll be a tremendous pro player. But who knows, this may motivate him to stay one more year, but I doubt it. If anything, this will make him bolt even faster - sign that contract while you can. Let's hope for Texas' strength of schedule sake, OU can continue to win out.

THE BS OF THE BCS:
Well here we are again - mid October which means the BCS rears its ugly head from a year-long hibernation - where we all wish it would remain for good. Yet again this year's polls prove that the system is broken and, if anything, has taken us two steps backwards from the old system, even as imperfect as that was. Let's take a look at the initial rankings.

OK, the #1 spot is not really debatable at this point. I mean, you could make an argument for Michigan if you really wanted to, but these guys are eventually going up against each other so let's not go overboard. But it doesn't take long after that to find the errors. USC is NOT the #2 team in the country. Consider this - if you were to take this entire USC season (games, outcomes, players - everything) and give it to a team with a different uniform and team name, no way are they considered to be in the top 2. Bottom line is they are getting more credit for their history than they are for their body of work this year. And they are getting WAAAY too much credit for beating Arkansas and Nebraska. I mean, is Arkansas really as good as everyone thinks because they snuck up on an unexpecting Auburn team? I guess so, but we'll see at season's end - they've got remaining games at S. Carolina, against Tennessee and LSU. And the AP (not included in the BCS) has Michigan at 2, but the coaches poll has USC at 2. The point here is that the coaches poll is admittedly the biggest joke of all of them - the coaches don't even fill them out for crying out loud.

Now let's look at the slew of one-loss teams. There are definitely some head scratchers here. First off, I do agree that both Auburn and Florida are the better of the 1-loss teams right now - I mean look at their schedule and their wins. BUT, to say that ND is both the third-best 1-loss team AND better than Texas right now is just ridiculous. Tell me out there who would pick ND over Texas on a neutral site. I can't see it.

And here's where it gets really weird - Cal is ahead of Tennessee? Cal, who got absolutely destroyed by Tennessee, and who plays in the Pac 10 versus the SEC, is a better team than Tenn? This is beyond ridiculous. Even more surprising the margin by which they are ahead of them. I think you could almost put Tenn, Florida and Auburn next to each other here.

Look, I could go on and on here, but I won't because I'm preaching to the choir. At some point this year, in a down week, I'll give you a glimpse into what I believe to be a very viable solution (yea, there's something new that no one has ever done!!).

And finally, as a Longhorn fan I must say that the computer polls have absolutely killed us here - that's what you get for scheduling Sam Houston State and North Texas. Texas is like the opposite of USC - they rarely ever get the benefit of the doubt where as USC will always get the benefit of the doubt. I don't get it, but it's blatant and hurts the game.

With that, for all of you bleeding-orange Horns fans sulking because you don't see any chance of getting into the National Championship game, here's a scenario for you that just may work:

* Oklahoma wins out
* Oregon beats USC BIG
* USC beats Notre Dame
* Georgia beats Florida
* Auburn beats Tennessee
* Florida/Tennessee beats Auburn in SEC championship game
* Pitt beats West Virginia
* West Virginia beats Louisville
* Nebraska beats Missouri
* Texas wins out (and wins big)
* Texas beats Nebraska twice BIG
* Then, it won't matter who wins Michigan/OSU - Texas would (probably)
play one of those

ERRORS and RETRACTIONS:
Well gang, there's a first time for everything and we've got one now - I've actually made a mistake. I know, I can't believe it either. Last week I talked about Tennessee Offensive Cooridnator David Cutcliffe and how he was at Tenn a few years back, was fired by Fulmer and then brought back - that's not how it worked out. Cutcliffe left Tennessee about 8 years ago (after Tenn won the national title) to take the head coaching job at Ole Miss. He was then fired by the Rebels when Tenn brought him back this year. He and Fulmer have been close friends for 20+ years.

Thank you Brandon Whichard for clarifying the situation.

Thanks a lot everyone, enjoy the week - we'll do it again on Friday. And don't forget to post your comments here.

1 Comments:

Blogger Brandon said...

Awesome job. Welcome to the blogsphere.

10:55 AM  

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