Crunch Time of the Season
Room for error is down to zero for the top teams. This is the time of the year when you'll see most of the shaking out occur. If you haven't watched too closely all year now's the time to perk up. Some great games over the next few weeks that should affect a whole slew of teams.
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THUSDAY’S GAME
Finally, the much-anticipated Big East showdown came in a flurry. Regardless of what you think about Louisville and/or West Virginia, they are both offensive powerhouses – no doubting that. I will tell you this – my overall impression of the teams was drastically different after the game versus at halftime.
Going into halftime I thought that West Virginia looked about what I expected – very fast and explosive offense and suspect defense. However, I did feel that Louisville seemed a bit overrated. 3 chances in the red zone (2 with first and goal) and they come away with 3 field goals. For some reason, Louisville forgets how to pass the ball when they get in close.
Man, what a different half. Louisville came out and showed that they know how to make adjustments. West Virginia on the other hand stayed with the game plan of over athletic them. West Virginia didn’t do themselves any favors either with the turnovers (2 by Slaton) and penalties.
In the end I will say this – neither one of those teams has any real defense to speak of. I can see either one of these teams having a sub-par offensive night and getting upset because they can’t stop the other team’s offense. It was certainly a fun game to watch though – I would say that it lived up to the hype. But, we’ll see if Louisville can avoid the big-win hangover when they travel to Rutgers (undefeated and all) next Thursday night.
What’s with the Big East and Thursday night games anyway?
BIG MATCHUPS IN THE BIG 12
I know, the Big 12 is not necessarily at the top of the heap of power conferences this year, but nonetheless there are a few high-impact games on this weekend that should prove to be some good football watching.
Oklahoma (6-2) at Texas A&M (8-1):
It’s really too bad that this game and the Horns game are on at the same time – would be a nice back-to-back combo.
I think this will be, hands down, the best game of the weekend. This is a big game for both programs – OU looking to continue its defiance over bad luck and close out the year strong while the Aggies are looking for some much-needed R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Well if they can win this game they will definitely raise some eyebrows.
These are pretty evenly matched teams here. OU will have to really focus on stopping the run first and foremost. If they can hold the Aggie running game to under 150 total yards I think they will be in very good position. McGee, however, is quietly finding himself amongst the most efficient QBs in the country. He may not have a 350 yard/4 TD game, but he sure as hell won’t turn the ball over either.
The Aggie defense may prove to be the demise here. This will probably be the biggest test of the season – followed by Nebraska’s spread attack and finally, Texas. If A&M can come up with a big defensive game and force Paul Thompson into mistakes, it may just be the performance that pushes this team to the next level.
It’s a tough one, but I think what it comes down to is that the biggest weakness, and potential for an absolute terrible game, lies with the Aggie defense. They can prove me (and a lot of others) wrong this Saturday though. In the end I think OU is gelling a bit too well for the Aggies to overcome. I’m picking OU in a tight one.
Oklahoma – 26
Texas A&M – 24
Missouri (7-2) at Nebraska (6-3):
It’s really unfortunate that both of these teams are coming off some pretty disappointing losses. It still doesn’t diminish the fact that this game, in all likelihood, will determine the Big 12 North champs.
You really have to root for Chase Daniel here – he’s been great and exceeded so many expectations, but that offense has single-handedly given games away this year. They’re young and not used to being in the positions they’ve been in (and are in) and it’s clear they can’t finish games nor can they overcome themselves.
This game is at Nebraska and I think Nebraska is probably the better team here regardless. Nebraska clearly had a Texas hangover when they went into Oklahoma State last weekend. I think they’ve regrouped and they’ll look for payback on their home turf. I think Nebraska ends up winning quite big, but I hope Mizzou can keep it close.
Nebraska – 34
Missouri – 21
Oklahoma State (5-3) at Texas (8-1):
I’ve gone from nervous to confident back to nervous again on this game. This damn team (Texas) is so hard to figure out sometimes. This could be a high-flying circus act of zero defense and quick-scoring offense – Pac 10 style. But, it shouldn’t be.
Okie State has done a great job this year and they have a great QB and an all-world type receiver in Adarius Bowman (he had 300 yards and 4 TDs against Kansas). Uhhh, that doesn’t sound good after the “How not to play pass defense” clinic we just saw in Lubbock last weekend. If he put 300 yards on Kansas, he may put up 500 against UT. Oh yea, and they’re averaging over 440 total yards a game.
I really don’t have any doubts that Colt will play great – I’ve seen nothing that would suggest otherwise. And the running backs should have a field day against the OSU defense, but I won’t be watching the offense.
I’ll be very interested to see what sort of pride factor may be at play with the Texas defense – especially the secondary. This is a great test for them going against a very athletic offensive team. No, the OSU front lines on both sides of the ball aren’t very good, but they have play makers – the type that have torched this Texas secondary all year. Let’s just say that I hope that they are looking to make a statement – they really need it. And if they are able to really shut this offense down (I’m talking 200 total yards or less for the game), the Tech game (which they won) will be a distant memory.
This could really end 1 of 2 ways – 1) Texas wins it in a land slide 44-16 or, 2) Okie State is able to edge out a close one 38-37.
I’m going to say that the pride factor does come into play here - believe it or not this is a new team. Old Mack teams would not have won either of those last 2 games.
Texas – 44
Okie State – 20 (I’ll give them a little bit more credit)
OH YEA, THE OTHER BIG GAMES
Let’s not forget our good friends to our immediate east – the SEC. We’ve got a nice little brawl between Tennessee (7-1) and LSU (6-2) this Saturday. Unfortunately for the Tigers it’s in Knoxville.
Here’s the deal on this one – Les Miles and this LSU team need a big win in a very big kind of way. They’re record may impress you until you see who they’ve beaten and whose beaten them. The amazing thing is they are chalk full of athletes from top to bottom. They should be playing better. You just hope Les Miles can stay relaxed and focus – this is a big game for him. In fact, you could argue this is almost a must-win for them. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, but another loss to a ranked team may get some folks down on the bayou a little hot.
The good news is he’s playing against a banged-up Eric Ainge. Bad news is the Tennessee front line is one of the best in the country (only given up 6 sacks all year). LSU is a very physical team and I’ll be interested to see how things go in the trenches. Ultimately, I don’t have any reason to believe that Jamarcus Russell will make any big plays – he’s capable of it, he just hasn’t shown it in games like this. And the Vols defense is very tough to move the ball on.
Tennessee – 28
LSU – 18
ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON…
Arkansas at S. Carolina - potentially a trap game for the Hogs here. S. Carolina isn’t a bad team, they just don’t have a whole ton of talent and are still learning how to win games. You just know that Spurrier is going to pull something off this year and this just may be it. Not predicting a score here, just saying keep an eye on the highlights; could be the surprise that Auburn is looking for.
And don’t forget Boston College at Wake Forest. Again, when was the last time anyone talked about Wake Forest and a big game in the same sentence? If BC can win this one they should lock up the Atlantic division and guarantee themselves a spot in the ACC championship game. But don’t count out Wake just yet – they’re having a nice little year this year and if they win they should lock up the division. Both teams are coming at 7-1 and 3-1 in conference. These guys have historically (last 3 years) played very close games – expect nothing different here. I’m going with Wake in the upset here – BC is so very physical, but the Eagles are on the road in this one.
CONSIDER THIS…
So remember back in September when the OSU/Texas game was going to be the game of the decade? Well, turns out we’ve got another one of those. If you’ve even watched 2 seconds of sportscenter in the last week you’ll know that the Michigan/OSU game is being dubbed as the “Game of the Decade” as well. Hmm, so even though we just had a “best game in a decade” is it possible that it’s already been bumped? I mean, if the Michigan/OSU game is the game of the decade then that UT game sure did sink like a stone in terms of “best games in 10 years”.
Look, obviously I’m being a smartass here (shocker I know), but seriously, can we chill out just a bit with the over-dramatic labeling of some of these games. I know both Michigan and OSU will (probably) be undefeated when they meet AND as such, will be #1 versus #2 (again). But, if you’re going to throw out some over-the-top descriptor how about “game of the year”? Calling a game that hasn’t yet been played the “game of the decade” would tell me that you’ve had a little too much caffeine and it also says you probably haven’t watched a lot of football in the last 10 years.
I know you sportswriters and talking heads can do better than that, can’t you??
QUICK HITS
• Celebration in Big D! Mover over Mavs, the SMU Mustangs are 1 win away from bowl eligibility. With 2 of their 3 games remaining against the top teams in Conference USA (Tulsa and Houston) look for the Mustangs to lock up a bowl birth with a win over Rice in their final game of the year. I can’t even begin to fathom when the last time these guys went to a bowl game.
• Gene Chizik has been given permission to talk to Michigan State about their soon-to-be coaching vacancy. Would be an interesting fit – not a bad one at all. If he does happen to get it, we’ll see how good he can recruit.
• For those Longhorn fans out there who are tired of despairing over the weak schedule each year consider this: Next year (2007) the Horns start the season off with TCU and then they travel to Central Florida. Not the toughest in the world, but still beats N. Texas and Sam Houston State. There is still Rice and TBD so let’s not get too excited. BUT, in 2008, they will get Arkansas and UTEP, which will start a home and home with both teams. Either way, scheduling is looking a little better for the coming years (UCLA in 2010 as well). Now we just pray for TCU and Central Florida to start picking it up a bit.
• W. Virginia’s Steve Slaton might be the fastest running back I’ve ever seen.
• Yet again there is an NFL game that is teasing my appetite this weekend – Colts at Pats. I think the winner of this game solidifies the position at the top of the AFC. Should be a good one – I’m going with Pats in this one because it’s November in Massachusetts.
NBA PREVIEW
The biggest question going into the season is will I once again become interested in the NBA? I must say I’ve been pretty down on the league these last few years – I feel the product has gotten stagnant and boring. Hopefully I can find something of interest.
In the Western Conference, it really comes down to 3 teams – the Suns, Spurs and Mavs. Rather than go into each one and start with “if they can stay healthy”, I’ll just hit that off the bat. Assuming everyone stays healthy I’ll give the Suns a light edge of the Spurs. First off, the Spurs were very banged up in the playoffs last year and it showed – and they were 1 play away from playing in the finals (probably would have had the same result anyway). They’ve got solid veterans, but they are starting to wear down a bit – it’s getting harder for Duncan to remain healthy throughout the year – and we’ll see how Ginobli comes in after a much-needed rest.
I know the Mavs are the defending champs of the West here, but as I said, if both of those teams are healthy, I think the Mavs will have a tough road. If Stoudamire can come back and stay back – even if he’s gimping in the first half of the season – for a half a season, they will be tough to beat. I’ll take an 85% Amare Stoudamire over most 100% players. And the role players on that team are among the best – Barbosa, Diaw, Raja Bell and Kurt Thomas are invaluable assets to that team and proved they can make a difference when need be.
I will say this – the Mavs did well by locking up some key outstanding contract issues. That will go a long way in maintaining focus and continuity this year, but in the end, if those other guys are healthy, I just don’t think they’ve got the firepower. With that said, I think Dwight Howard is still a year or so away from his best form – and when he hits that I think he’ll be one of the league’s best. Dirk ain’t half bad either.
And because I’m a life-long Laker fan I have to touch on them just a bit. I do think this is a playoff team this year – they’ve got everyone back with another year of experience with each other under their belts. They could break out and surprise some folks. But, let’s not get hasty – the best they’re looking at is a 6 seed in the playoffs. Keep an ear to the ground about Andrew Bynum – as he goes, I think this team will go. He’s VERY young (youngest in the league I believe), but very promising. I know that doesn’t buy much, but a solid big man who is athletic and can rebound may be the missing link to getting this team back up into the top 3 or 4 in the conference. Although, again, this is very optimistic thinking and we are at least a year this real possibility.
Now on to the Eastern Conference where it’s a little bit murkier. First off Bulls fans, settle down. Game 1 in an 82 game season means very little. Hell, game 1 of an NFL season rarely means much and they only play 16 games. With that said, the Bulls obviously upgraded their team a bit brining in some immediate impact players as well as drafting well for the future. Getting Heinrich signed was a nice step; he should be a good offensive weapon for them. I’m not crowning these guys cream of the crop just yet, but give them a year together and they may make a lot of noise next year. I’m going with New Jersey, Detroit and Cleveland as the top 3 this year. I know it’s sacrilegious to not go with the defending champs, but I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the Heat. Shaq’s aging seems to have a compounding affect these days and let’s be honest, they aren’t the youngest team in the league right now. You have to wonder how motivated some of those role players will be now that they have the coveted ring – I’m talking Gary Payton, Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and Gonzo. The difference will be how long can Dwayne Wade carry this team on his back throughout a year – that and how long will Shaq miss due to injuries and wear and tear.
I like one more good year from Kidd, more involvement from Jefferson and it’s a contract year for Mr. Vince Carter so we should expect some big things from him this year – he’ll look to lock up big bucks as early as he can. This is Jersey’s final window – after this year I think it’s closed for good and Kidd is surely pondering his retirement.
Cleveland may be a bit over-zealous, but I do think it’s only a matter of time. I was firmly sold last year and eager for more of King James. No doubt he’ll have multiple rings and MVPs before he’s all through.
Also keep an eye on Washington and Boston. Long shots, but they can make a run.
Pencil Brandon Roy of the Portland Trailblazers in as the rookie of the year.
MVP should be a toss up between Lebron, Kobe and Dirk. NOTE: Last year’s MVP was a joke – Steve Nash may have been the most undeserving winner in recent memory. I like Nash, but there was absolutely no question that last year’s award should have gone to either Dirk or Kobe – I would have been fine with either.
Question of the year (2nd one) – will the Portland Jailblazers be able to break out of their mold as the most dysfunctional team in the league. They’ve dumped most of their bad luggage (they still have Zach Randolph and Darius Miles though) and have a nice young nucleus to work with. I give them a couple of years until they start to turn things around.
Finally, something else to watch this year that could be HUGELY impactful for some teams. I’m talking about 3 big names that could very easily be put on the trading block before the deadline – Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson and Kevin Garnett. Marbury seems to be the least likely, but only because Isiah is a bona fide idiot and that would admit he’s wrong – which he is. But, you’ve got 2 big names who still have some good years left and who are quite unhappy with their current situation. Let’s be honest, AI and KG are true competitors and they will not be happy unless they are competing for something real and tangible. And lets be honest, neither the Sixers nor the T’wolves will be in the hunt. And both teams can still get a nice packaged deal with these guys for rebuilding. Just keep watching…
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW
As much as I love college basketball, is there anything really that’s going to drag our attention away from football right now? Probably not. Come late December, I begin to dive into it pretty good.
First off, for all of you Longhorn Hoops fans, go check out the roster this year and tell me everyone you recognized not named AJ Abrams. Yep, should be an interesting year. Boatloads of young, raw talent can translate into some nice highlight film footage, but can also translate into about 18-20 losses.
If you haven’t been paying attention, but you are a fan, pay close attention to Kevin Durant this year. He’s a freshman and was rated as one of the top high schoolers coming out last year. He’s projected (I don’t know how they do this) to be a top 3 pick in next year’s draft – that means he probably won’t be here long so enjoy it now. He’s a guard/forward hybrid, which essentially means he can move like a guard with a forward body. He just may push Greg Oden of Ohio State as the Freshman of the Year next year. Oh yea, watch the Oden kid of OSU too – he is something else.
I think the Big 12 may not be as strong top to bottom this year, but two teams in particular are poised to make noise on a national level – Kansas and Texas A&M. Both schools have a great returning core and coming off pretty hot and over-achieving years. When was the last time anyone ever talked about Aggie basketball like this? I think it may be never. Anyway, we obviously expect this from Kansas, but we’ll see what old Gillespie is made of down in Aggie land and if he can keep this train moving – I think he will. Look for these guys to battle for the title while the other usual contenders take a half a year or so to find their identities – Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Missouri. But don’t forget – Bob Huggins starts his first year this year in Manhattan, Kansas – should be good for the conference.
On the national stage I think it all starts with Florida – they’ve got the core of that team coming back as well and as hard as it may be two win this thing 2 straight years, you have to keep them in the conversation. Will the Gators get complacent and bored? We shall see. Other teams, which should remain hovering near the top of the polls, include:
• LSU – one of the stronger front courts in the country led by Big Baby Glen Davis (who’s lost quite a bit of weight from what I’ve read)
• UNC – Tyler Hansbrough should be a POY contender this year – he’s only a sophomore but averaged almost 8 rebounds and almost 20 points per game last year (freshman year).
• UCLA – Also has some strong returning talent – they lost Jordan Farmar (to the Lakers no doubt), but have most others coming back. They had a great run in the tourney last year and shouldn’t lose too much of a beat.
Have a great weekend, we’ll do it again next week.
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THUSDAY’S GAME
Finally, the much-anticipated Big East showdown came in a flurry. Regardless of what you think about Louisville and/or West Virginia, they are both offensive powerhouses – no doubting that. I will tell you this – my overall impression of the teams was drastically different after the game versus at halftime.
Going into halftime I thought that West Virginia looked about what I expected – very fast and explosive offense and suspect defense. However, I did feel that Louisville seemed a bit overrated. 3 chances in the red zone (2 with first and goal) and they come away with 3 field goals. For some reason, Louisville forgets how to pass the ball when they get in close.
Man, what a different half. Louisville came out and showed that they know how to make adjustments. West Virginia on the other hand stayed with the game plan of over athletic them. West Virginia didn’t do themselves any favors either with the turnovers (2 by Slaton) and penalties.
In the end I will say this – neither one of those teams has any real defense to speak of. I can see either one of these teams having a sub-par offensive night and getting upset because they can’t stop the other team’s offense. It was certainly a fun game to watch though – I would say that it lived up to the hype. But, we’ll see if Louisville can avoid the big-win hangover when they travel to Rutgers (undefeated and all) next Thursday night.
What’s with the Big East and Thursday night games anyway?
BIG MATCHUPS IN THE BIG 12
I know, the Big 12 is not necessarily at the top of the heap of power conferences this year, but nonetheless there are a few high-impact games on this weekend that should prove to be some good football watching.
Oklahoma (6-2) at Texas A&M (8-1):
It’s really too bad that this game and the Horns game are on at the same time – would be a nice back-to-back combo.
I think this will be, hands down, the best game of the weekend. This is a big game for both programs – OU looking to continue its defiance over bad luck and close out the year strong while the Aggies are looking for some much-needed R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Well if they can win this game they will definitely raise some eyebrows.
These are pretty evenly matched teams here. OU will have to really focus on stopping the run first and foremost. If they can hold the Aggie running game to under 150 total yards I think they will be in very good position. McGee, however, is quietly finding himself amongst the most efficient QBs in the country. He may not have a 350 yard/4 TD game, but he sure as hell won’t turn the ball over either.
The Aggie defense may prove to be the demise here. This will probably be the biggest test of the season – followed by Nebraska’s spread attack and finally, Texas. If A&M can come up with a big defensive game and force Paul Thompson into mistakes, it may just be the performance that pushes this team to the next level.
It’s a tough one, but I think what it comes down to is that the biggest weakness, and potential for an absolute terrible game, lies with the Aggie defense. They can prove me (and a lot of others) wrong this Saturday though. In the end I think OU is gelling a bit too well for the Aggies to overcome. I’m picking OU in a tight one.
Oklahoma – 26
Texas A&M – 24
Missouri (7-2) at Nebraska (6-3):
It’s really unfortunate that both of these teams are coming off some pretty disappointing losses. It still doesn’t diminish the fact that this game, in all likelihood, will determine the Big 12 North champs.
You really have to root for Chase Daniel here – he’s been great and exceeded so many expectations, but that offense has single-handedly given games away this year. They’re young and not used to being in the positions they’ve been in (and are in) and it’s clear they can’t finish games nor can they overcome themselves.
This game is at Nebraska and I think Nebraska is probably the better team here regardless. Nebraska clearly had a Texas hangover when they went into Oklahoma State last weekend. I think they’ve regrouped and they’ll look for payback on their home turf. I think Nebraska ends up winning quite big, but I hope Mizzou can keep it close.
Nebraska – 34
Missouri – 21
Oklahoma State (5-3) at Texas (8-1):
I’ve gone from nervous to confident back to nervous again on this game. This damn team (Texas) is so hard to figure out sometimes. This could be a high-flying circus act of zero defense and quick-scoring offense – Pac 10 style. But, it shouldn’t be.
Okie State has done a great job this year and they have a great QB and an all-world type receiver in Adarius Bowman (he had 300 yards and 4 TDs against Kansas). Uhhh, that doesn’t sound good after the “How not to play pass defense” clinic we just saw in Lubbock last weekend. If he put 300 yards on Kansas, he may put up 500 against UT. Oh yea, and they’re averaging over 440 total yards a game.
I really don’t have any doubts that Colt will play great – I’ve seen nothing that would suggest otherwise. And the running backs should have a field day against the OSU defense, but I won’t be watching the offense.
I’ll be very interested to see what sort of pride factor may be at play with the Texas defense – especially the secondary. This is a great test for them going against a very athletic offensive team. No, the OSU front lines on both sides of the ball aren’t very good, but they have play makers – the type that have torched this Texas secondary all year. Let’s just say that I hope that they are looking to make a statement – they really need it. And if they are able to really shut this offense down (I’m talking 200 total yards or less for the game), the Tech game (which they won) will be a distant memory.
This could really end 1 of 2 ways – 1) Texas wins it in a land slide 44-16 or, 2) Okie State is able to edge out a close one 38-37.
I’m going to say that the pride factor does come into play here - believe it or not this is a new team. Old Mack teams would not have won either of those last 2 games.
Texas – 44
Okie State – 20 (I’ll give them a little bit more credit)
OH YEA, THE OTHER BIG GAMES
Let’s not forget our good friends to our immediate east – the SEC. We’ve got a nice little brawl between Tennessee (7-1) and LSU (6-2) this Saturday. Unfortunately for the Tigers it’s in Knoxville.
Here’s the deal on this one – Les Miles and this LSU team need a big win in a very big kind of way. They’re record may impress you until you see who they’ve beaten and whose beaten them. The amazing thing is they are chalk full of athletes from top to bottom. They should be playing better. You just hope Les Miles can stay relaxed and focus – this is a big game for him. In fact, you could argue this is almost a must-win for them. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, but another loss to a ranked team may get some folks down on the bayou a little hot.
The good news is he’s playing against a banged-up Eric Ainge. Bad news is the Tennessee front line is one of the best in the country (only given up 6 sacks all year). LSU is a very physical team and I’ll be interested to see how things go in the trenches. Ultimately, I don’t have any reason to believe that Jamarcus Russell will make any big plays – he’s capable of it, he just hasn’t shown it in games like this. And the Vols defense is very tough to move the ball on.
Tennessee – 28
LSU – 18
ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON…
Arkansas at S. Carolina - potentially a trap game for the Hogs here. S. Carolina isn’t a bad team, they just don’t have a whole ton of talent and are still learning how to win games. You just know that Spurrier is going to pull something off this year and this just may be it. Not predicting a score here, just saying keep an eye on the highlights; could be the surprise that Auburn is looking for.
And don’t forget Boston College at Wake Forest. Again, when was the last time anyone talked about Wake Forest and a big game in the same sentence? If BC can win this one they should lock up the Atlantic division and guarantee themselves a spot in the ACC championship game. But don’t count out Wake just yet – they’re having a nice little year this year and if they win they should lock up the division. Both teams are coming at 7-1 and 3-1 in conference. These guys have historically (last 3 years) played very close games – expect nothing different here. I’m going with Wake in the upset here – BC is so very physical, but the Eagles are on the road in this one.
CONSIDER THIS…
So remember back in September when the OSU/Texas game was going to be the game of the decade? Well, turns out we’ve got another one of those. If you’ve even watched 2 seconds of sportscenter in the last week you’ll know that the Michigan/OSU game is being dubbed as the “Game of the Decade” as well. Hmm, so even though we just had a “best game in a decade” is it possible that it’s already been bumped? I mean, if the Michigan/OSU game is the game of the decade then that UT game sure did sink like a stone in terms of “best games in 10 years”.
Look, obviously I’m being a smartass here (shocker I know), but seriously, can we chill out just a bit with the over-dramatic labeling of some of these games. I know both Michigan and OSU will (probably) be undefeated when they meet AND as such, will be #1 versus #2 (again). But, if you’re going to throw out some over-the-top descriptor how about “game of the year”? Calling a game that hasn’t yet been played the “game of the decade” would tell me that you’ve had a little too much caffeine and it also says you probably haven’t watched a lot of football in the last 10 years.
I know you sportswriters and talking heads can do better than that, can’t you??
QUICK HITS
• Celebration in Big D! Mover over Mavs, the SMU Mustangs are 1 win away from bowl eligibility. With 2 of their 3 games remaining against the top teams in Conference USA (Tulsa and Houston) look for the Mustangs to lock up a bowl birth with a win over Rice in their final game of the year. I can’t even begin to fathom when the last time these guys went to a bowl game.
• Gene Chizik has been given permission to talk to Michigan State about their soon-to-be coaching vacancy. Would be an interesting fit – not a bad one at all. If he does happen to get it, we’ll see how good he can recruit.
• For those Longhorn fans out there who are tired of despairing over the weak schedule each year consider this: Next year (2007) the Horns start the season off with TCU and then they travel to Central Florida. Not the toughest in the world, but still beats N. Texas and Sam Houston State. There is still Rice and TBD so let’s not get too excited. BUT, in 2008, they will get Arkansas and UTEP, which will start a home and home with both teams. Either way, scheduling is looking a little better for the coming years (UCLA in 2010 as well). Now we just pray for TCU and Central Florida to start picking it up a bit.
• W. Virginia’s Steve Slaton might be the fastest running back I’ve ever seen.
• Yet again there is an NFL game that is teasing my appetite this weekend – Colts at Pats. I think the winner of this game solidifies the position at the top of the AFC. Should be a good one – I’m going with Pats in this one because it’s November in Massachusetts.
NBA PREVIEW
The biggest question going into the season is will I once again become interested in the NBA? I must say I’ve been pretty down on the league these last few years – I feel the product has gotten stagnant and boring. Hopefully I can find something of interest.
In the Western Conference, it really comes down to 3 teams – the Suns, Spurs and Mavs. Rather than go into each one and start with “if they can stay healthy”, I’ll just hit that off the bat. Assuming everyone stays healthy I’ll give the Suns a light edge of the Spurs. First off, the Spurs were very banged up in the playoffs last year and it showed – and they were 1 play away from playing in the finals (probably would have had the same result anyway). They’ve got solid veterans, but they are starting to wear down a bit – it’s getting harder for Duncan to remain healthy throughout the year – and we’ll see how Ginobli comes in after a much-needed rest.
I know the Mavs are the defending champs of the West here, but as I said, if both of those teams are healthy, I think the Mavs will have a tough road. If Stoudamire can come back and stay back – even if he’s gimping in the first half of the season – for a half a season, they will be tough to beat. I’ll take an 85% Amare Stoudamire over most 100% players. And the role players on that team are among the best – Barbosa, Diaw, Raja Bell and Kurt Thomas are invaluable assets to that team and proved they can make a difference when need be.
I will say this – the Mavs did well by locking up some key outstanding contract issues. That will go a long way in maintaining focus and continuity this year, but in the end, if those other guys are healthy, I just don’t think they’ve got the firepower. With that said, I think Dwight Howard is still a year or so away from his best form – and when he hits that I think he’ll be one of the league’s best. Dirk ain’t half bad either.
And because I’m a life-long Laker fan I have to touch on them just a bit. I do think this is a playoff team this year – they’ve got everyone back with another year of experience with each other under their belts. They could break out and surprise some folks. But, let’s not get hasty – the best they’re looking at is a 6 seed in the playoffs. Keep an ear to the ground about Andrew Bynum – as he goes, I think this team will go. He’s VERY young (youngest in the league I believe), but very promising. I know that doesn’t buy much, but a solid big man who is athletic and can rebound may be the missing link to getting this team back up into the top 3 or 4 in the conference. Although, again, this is very optimistic thinking and we are at least a year this real possibility.
Now on to the Eastern Conference where it’s a little bit murkier. First off Bulls fans, settle down. Game 1 in an 82 game season means very little. Hell, game 1 of an NFL season rarely means much and they only play 16 games. With that said, the Bulls obviously upgraded their team a bit brining in some immediate impact players as well as drafting well for the future. Getting Heinrich signed was a nice step; he should be a good offensive weapon for them. I’m not crowning these guys cream of the crop just yet, but give them a year together and they may make a lot of noise next year. I’m going with New Jersey, Detroit and Cleveland as the top 3 this year. I know it’s sacrilegious to not go with the defending champs, but I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the Heat. Shaq’s aging seems to have a compounding affect these days and let’s be honest, they aren’t the youngest team in the league right now. You have to wonder how motivated some of those role players will be now that they have the coveted ring – I’m talking Gary Payton, Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and Gonzo. The difference will be how long can Dwayne Wade carry this team on his back throughout a year – that and how long will Shaq miss due to injuries and wear and tear.
I like one more good year from Kidd, more involvement from Jefferson and it’s a contract year for Mr. Vince Carter so we should expect some big things from him this year – he’ll look to lock up big bucks as early as he can. This is Jersey’s final window – after this year I think it’s closed for good and Kidd is surely pondering his retirement.
Cleveland may be a bit over-zealous, but I do think it’s only a matter of time. I was firmly sold last year and eager for more of King James. No doubt he’ll have multiple rings and MVPs before he’s all through.
Also keep an eye on Washington and Boston. Long shots, but they can make a run.
Pencil Brandon Roy of the Portland Trailblazers in as the rookie of the year.
MVP should be a toss up between Lebron, Kobe and Dirk. NOTE: Last year’s MVP was a joke – Steve Nash may have been the most undeserving winner in recent memory. I like Nash, but there was absolutely no question that last year’s award should have gone to either Dirk or Kobe – I would have been fine with either.
Question of the year (2nd one) – will the Portland Jailblazers be able to break out of their mold as the most dysfunctional team in the league. They’ve dumped most of their bad luggage (they still have Zach Randolph and Darius Miles though) and have a nice young nucleus to work with. I give them a couple of years until they start to turn things around.
Finally, something else to watch this year that could be HUGELY impactful for some teams. I’m talking about 3 big names that could very easily be put on the trading block before the deadline – Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson and Kevin Garnett. Marbury seems to be the least likely, but only because Isiah is a bona fide idiot and that would admit he’s wrong – which he is. But, you’ve got 2 big names who still have some good years left and who are quite unhappy with their current situation. Let’s be honest, AI and KG are true competitors and they will not be happy unless they are competing for something real and tangible. And lets be honest, neither the Sixers nor the T’wolves will be in the hunt. And both teams can still get a nice packaged deal with these guys for rebuilding. Just keep watching…
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW
As much as I love college basketball, is there anything really that’s going to drag our attention away from football right now? Probably not. Come late December, I begin to dive into it pretty good.
First off, for all of you Longhorn Hoops fans, go check out the roster this year and tell me everyone you recognized not named AJ Abrams. Yep, should be an interesting year. Boatloads of young, raw talent can translate into some nice highlight film footage, but can also translate into about 18-20 losses.
If you haven’t been paying attention, but you are a fan, pay close attention to Kevin Durant this year. He’s a freshman and was rated as one of the top high schoolers coming out last year. He’s projected (I don’t know how they do this) to be a top 3 pick in next year’s draft – that means he probably won’t be here long so enjoy it now. He’s a guard/forward hybrid, which essentially means he can move like a guard with a forward body. He just may push Greg Oden of Ohio State as the Freshman of the Year next year. Oh yea, watch the Oden kid of OSU too – he is something else.
I think the Big 12 may not be as strong top to bottom this year, but two teams in particular are poised to make noise on a national level – Kansas and Texas A&M. Both schools have a great returning core and coming off pretty hot and over-achieving years. When was the last time anyone ever talked about Aggie basketball like this? I think it may be never. Anyway, we obviously expect this from Kansas, but we’ll see what old Gillespie is made of down in Aggie land and if he can keep this train moving – I think he will. Look for these guys to battle for the title while the other usual contenders take a half a year or so to find their identities – Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Missouri. But don’t forget – Bob Huggins starts his first year this year in Manhattan, Kansas – should be good for the conference.
On the national stage I think it all starts with Florida – they’ve got the core of that team coming back as well and as hard as it may be two win this thing 2 straight years, you have to keep them in the conversation. Will the Gators get complacent and bored? We shall see. Other teams, which should remain hovering near the top of the polls, include:
• LSU – one of the stronger front courts in the country led by Big Baby Glen Davis (who’s lost quite a bit of weight from what I’ve read)
• UNC – Tyler Hansbrough should be a POY contender this year – he’s only a sophomore but averaged almost 8 rebounds and almost 20 points per game last year (freshman year).
• UCLA – Also has some strong returning talent – they lost Jordan Farmar (to the Lakers no doubt), but have most others coming back. They had a great run in the tourney last year and shouldn’t lose too much of a beat.
Have a great weekend, we’ll do it again next week.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 8:59 AM
1 Comments:
I said Dwight Howard when talking about the Mavs and I meant Josh Howard - BUT while on it, Dwight Howard may be the league's best big man in about 2 or 3 years. Unfortunately for him he plays for Orlando.
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