You Want a Playoff?
I'll give you a playoff. Here's a quick look at the top 8 teams in the BCS right now and guess what? They will all play a game against one of the other top 8 teams before the season's end.
I know it's not the same, but it's as close as we're going to get for a long time. So let's just play along for one second.
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Notre Dame
6. Rutgers
7. Arkansas
8. W. Virginia
Michigan will visit Ohio State this weekend.
USC gets Notre Dame next weekend (after getting Cal this weekend).
Florida will (most likely) face Arkansas in the SEC title game in 2 weeks.
And W. Virginia will get Rutgers next week.
There's your stinking playoff. More on the BCS below.
TEXAS LONGHORNS:
OK, so I'm not going to talk a whole lot about the Horns this week. This team needs time to regroup and we all know the concerns going into the next game with the Aggies. The only thing I will say is that this off week could not have come at a better time - this might be the healthiest this team has been all year. If they are, I'm very confident that they will dismantle the aggies. BUT, and this is a big "but" with these guys sometimes, they simply have to show up ready to play. I promise you the Aggies will.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at a few match-ups this weekend. I'm not sure, but I think Ohio State and Michigan are playing this weekend, but I can't find any commentary on this game anywhere :)
Michigan (11-0) at Ohio State (11-0):
Well, it's the moment we've all been waiting for - and be "we" I mean every single jackass at espn. More on those shenanigans below. That aside, this is obviously a big game and has implications to the rest of the country - any #1 vs. #2 game is going to, right?
Anyway, this is a very interesting match-up as these teams seem very similar to me in a lot of ways. Both have played almost identical schedules - 1 key road win early in the year (OSU at Texas and Michigan at Notre Dame) and both went through a very mediocre Big 10 conference with ease. Yes, there were close games, but did you really think either team would lose those close games? I'll give the edge to Michigan here as they beat a VERY good 10-1 Wisconsin team whereas Ohio State did not get the Badgers this year - lucky for them.
In looking at personnel, the similarities are still there. Both teams have experienced QBs who can make the big throws, both have athletic WRs who can be counted on in the clutch and both have pretty good running games - Michigan actually has a tremendous running game whereas OSU's is pretty good. You will hear a lot about Troy Smith's "big playmaking ability", but this is not really relevant this year. Yes, he's capable, but he's been predominately a passer this year (less than 200 total yards rushing this year). Troy Smith does have the edge over Michigan, having won all 3 times he's played against them so far, but let's not forget that Henne has had pretty good numbers in those losses. He's capable of putting up a big game against these Buckeyes.
I think when you look at Michigan's offense against the Buckeye defense, that's where you'll see the biggest advantage for the Wolverines. For starters, their offensive line is giving up less than a sack per game on average. That bodes very well for the Wolverines as the OSU doesn't have the strongest pass rush in the world. If they want to get pressure on Henne they'll have to rely on blitzes. That will open it up for quick read slant passes to the receivers or dump-off passes to Mike Hart - something Michigan is very proficient at doing.
You may have forgotten about a kid by the name of Mario Manningham as he's been injured and out for a few games for Michigan. This is their undisputed #1 receiver and a fine one at that. Look for OSU to focus early on not giving up the big play to Mario - in which case Michigan will chip away with the running game and short passes to open up the big play. Manningham is a game-changing player and may prove to be the difference maker here. And with so much attention on him, it will open things up for Arrington and Breaston as well. And finally, OSU's defense has a tendency to go into the tank against the run - this would be a good game to NOT do that as Hart is one of the nation's most consistent runners. If he gets over 100 yards, it will be hard for OSU to win.
On the flip side, Troy Smith is no slouch - he can pass the ball with tremendous accuracy. Us Horns fans know all too well what he's capable of as a passer. The OSU receiving corps will be tough for the Michigan secondary. UM has one of the bets cover corners in the country in Leon Hall - unfortunately they've only got one of those. SIDEBAR FOR HORNS FANS: A cover corner is a cornerback (or defensive back) who can actually run with and cover receivers as they run their passing routes. It's a foreign concept to us, I know.
So back to the Michigan secondary - they've got some players in this area, but in order for them to be successful, the defensive front will have to get pressure on Smith. Although he's fast, quick and elusive, he's nearly as accurate of a passer when he's on the run. The good news for Michigan fans is I think they rank in the to 2 or 3 in sacks this year. Some will argue that OSU has a slight advantage in the passing game (I totally disagree), but the running game is where OSU will run into some struggles. Michigan is the best defense against the rush in the country - and one of the top 3 overall defenses in the country. The other good news for Michigan is if the front 7 can maintain their pressure and keep the running game in check there will be no need for the safeties to cheat up and help out - leaving them to focus on pass coverage.
One quick special teams note for Michigan - don't kick it to Ginn. Don't even give him a chance to break a big one. If either team does break one, that could be the difference in the game. Kick it out of bounds (punts I mean).
In the end, these teams are almost identical. I'm shocked at how many of the talking heads are picking OSU so quickly here. They could play this game 10 times and I think it might be a 5-5 tie. According to Vegas, the line is 6.5 - THAT IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE!!! I would bet the house on Michigan there - even if they lose, I don't think it's by more than a few points. I know Tressel and the Buckeyes have had Michigan's number the past 4 or 5 years AND they're playing in the Shoe, but I think Lloyd Carr gets his revenge this year. Michigan in an "upset":
Michigan - 31
OSU - 27
Cal (8-2) at USC (8-1):
This one doesn't quite have the intrigue we were all expecting a few short weeks ago - thank you Cal. But, this is a big game nonetheless as it's got major Pac 10 implications - the winner will take the conference title. Although USC has looked especially good the past couple of games it's come against Stanford (like a high school team) and Oregon (pretty good, but overrated). And I think it's fair to chalk up the Cal loss to looking ahead to this game. The most interesting thing here is that this game will represent the strongest opponent either team has faced. Yes, Cal played at Tennessee which is a nice road game, but we saw how that turned out. BUT, to be fair, it was the first game of the year and they are a totally different team right now. USC had some impressive wins over Arkansas and Nebraska - although like Cal, the Arkansas team is a MUCH different team now and we all know how good Nebraska really is (not very).
I'm going with Cal here as I think they want this game more and they have something to prove. They're coming off of a loss so there's the extra added motivation there to come out and make a statement. This Cal offense will absolutely give USC's defense fits and look for a couple of big plays of 25+ yards in this one. USC on the other hand has a talented team and is more than capable of spanking the Bears this year (again), but I'm going with fate in this one.
Cal - 34
USC - 31
Two Other Notable Games:
The Iron Bowl - Auburn at Alabama. This is a rivalry game and as the cliché goes, "throw all the records out the window." You can do that, but I think Auburn still wins this game. They've got problem areas and can have a let down with the best of them, but Alabama is just bad right now - they're in some turmoil that they need to work themselves out of. Auburn takes this one.
Maryland at Boston College - ACC implications here. Both teams are 8-2 and looking for their spot in the ACC championship game. Maryland follows this game up with a visit to Wake Forest so they MUST stay focused here. BC is 6-0 at home this year and look for this one to be a close game and a grudge match with the Eagles pulling it out and moving to 7-0 at home.
MEMO TO…
ESPN. Did you really mean to call this Saturday "Judgment Day"? What ass clown stood up and said, "hey, we should call this Judgment Day because it's a big game and the winner will go to the title game. Yea, Judgment Day." Furthermore, I'd like to know what idiot said, "Great idea! Let's run with it."
Please, in the future, if you insist and creating idiotic titles for specific Saturdays throughout the year that feature good games, please at least try and make it halfway creative. I mean Judgment Day. My gosh.
And another thing, I hit on this a few weeks back, but it's not necessary to have a ticker constantly running on the bottom of the screen counting down to kickoff. First off, if it's Thursday evening, I don't need a reminder that the "big game" is just under 50 hours away. It's college football, it's on Saturdays and I know when this game is because you promo it a thousand times an hour.
And finally, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but after OSU and Michigan play, teams like Arkansas, Florida and USC will have 3 more games. This is not the end of the college football year - not by a long shot. And yes, I know that the winner will go to the championship game, but the real story and excitement is who will be that other team. Let's try and NOT put all of your eggs in one basket, you're going to miss some good football.
ANOTHER MEMO TO…
The Big 10. Do you realize that the winner of the OSU/Michigan game will go 7 weeks before they play the national title game? 7 WEEKS!!! Here's a thought, how about going to pick up another team (it would not be hard and you know it) and have a conference championship game. The Big 10 has the lamest in-conference scheduling and process for choosing champs and runner ups. Here's one for you - in the event that Michigan beats OSU, how do you determine who gets second place? Wisconsin will have 1 loss as will OSU, but they won't have played each other. Hmmm…
Assuming the Big 10 runner up gets an at large big to the Rose Bowl (and they will), Wisconsin would go. Why you ask? Because to settle things like this, Big 10 rules state that the team that has gone the longest without going to the Rose Bowl (or a BCS bowl) gets the nod. So Wisconsin will go ahead of OSU. Is that the best you can come up with???
SO WHO ELSE SHOULD GO TO THE TITLE GAME?
This is what you call throwing fuel on a fire. By that I mean my contributing to this worn out debate. But hey, it's fun, right?
Let's look at a couple of assumptions:
- Assuming USC wins out
- Assuming Florida/Arkansas win out and face each other in the conference championship
- Assuming Rutgers wins out
Who should go? Well, this may not be the more popular vote right now, but here goes. I think Rutgers HAS to go. Are they the sexy choice? No way. Are the best team? I'm not sure, maybe not. BUT, they will have won all of their games including wins over Louisville, Pitt and W. Virginia. People continue to dog the Big East, but I'll make this claim right now - top to bottom, the Big East may be better than the Big 10 and the Big 12. Again, that's top to bottom, not talking about best teams in the conference. And no, it's not the same as Boise State winning out - they play in tier 2 conference. And if one more person tries to work in the "Boise State beat Oregon State who beat USC so BSU should go to this/that bowl" I'm going to puke. Oregon State is a bad team who came together to play a complete game on 1 Saturday. That's college football. That's why it's so hard to go undefeated each year. Outside of Rutgers, it's a toss up. USC's schedule, should they win out, is tough to argue with. But, even with that schedule, the SEC conference winner is VERY hard to argue with, especially Florida.
But what about a rematch you ask? No way this will happen. Human voters will not allow it to happen (which is a whole other story of what's wrong with college football). And they shouldn't. I can't imagine anyone wanting to see this rematch for the title game and think it's good for the game. It's not and it would further diminish the importance of winning your conference in this BCS era. I give this zero chance of happening.
SWITCHING GEARS…TO COLLEGE HOOPS:
OUCH! Heartbreaker game for the Texas basketball team last night. But, the good news about basketball is we actually have a system that works. And in that system, it's GOOD to play games like this to get you prepared. And, we're not feeling all down like this just threw a wrench into our season. Ahhh, college basketball, it's a nice, warm feeling.
Anyway, in case you haven't really noticed yet, this team is very young. You probably haven't recognized one name out there other than AJ Abrams. I'll tell you this too, this is a wicked talented team - the quickness and athleticism they've got is unreal. What they are lacking is experience, chemistry and the ability to know how to win - that's a big deal in this game.
Last night's game showed a lot though. If you let this team run on you, forgetaboutit - they looked like those run-n-gun UNLV teams of the 90s at times last night. But on the flip side, their half-court offense was stale and predictable, pretty much centering around cranking up three pointers as the shot clock was winding down. Kevin Durant needs to take his game into the paint. When he was wildly throwing up 3s, MSU was able to rebound and get settled into their half-court offense. When Durant took it inside, he got to the line or opened it up for easy buckets by teammates. This kid is really unbelievable and even better - he makes his free throws! That's very unusual for Texas teams to be even half-way decent from the charity stripe.
I predict that this team will have a not-so-stellar record heading into conference play, but that they come together, learn their roles and play with chemistry in Big 12 play. This team has the potential to shock some teams this year. They've certainly got the talent and coaching to do so.
And one more note. If you haven't noticed, Florida hasn't skipped a beat from last year. They look very good and very polished. Horford and Noah will be the lion's share of the pub this year, but Corey Brewer is spectacular.
I know it's not the same, but it's as close as we're going to get for a long time. So let's just play along for one second.
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Notre Dame
6. Rutgers
7. Arkansas
8. W. Virginia
Michigan will visit Ohio State this weekend.
USC gets Notre Dame next weekend (after getting Cal this weekend).
Florida will (most likely) face Arkansas in the SEC title game in 2 weeks.
And W. Virginia will get Rutgers next week.
There's your stinking playoff. More on the BCS below.
TEXAS LONGHORNS:
OK, so I'm not going to talk a whole lot about the Horns this week. This team needs time to regroup and we all know the concerns going into the next game with the Aggies. The only thing I will say is that this off week could not have come at a better time - this might be the healthiest this team has been all year. If they are, I'm very confident that they will dismantle the aggies. BUT, and this is a big "but" with these guys sometimes, they simply have to show up ready to play. I promise you the Aggies will.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at a few match-ups this weekend. I'm not sure, but I think Ohio State and Michigan are playing this weekend, but I can't find any commentary on this game anywhere :)
Michigan (11-0) at Ohio State (11-0):
Well, it's the moment we've all been waiting for - and be "we" I mean every single jackass at espn. More on those shenanigans below. That aside, this is obviously a big game and has implications to the rest of the country - any #1 vs. #2 game is going to, right?
Anyway, this is a very interesting match-up as these teams seem very similar to me in a lot of ways. Both have played almost identical schedules - 1 key road win early in the year (OSU at Texas and Michigan at Notre Dame) and both went through a very mediocre Big 10 conference with ease. Yes, there were close games, but did you really think either team would lose those close games? I'll give the edge to Michigan here as they beat a VERY good 10-1 Wisconsin team whereas Ohio State did not get the Badgers this year - lucky for them.
In looking at personnel, the similarities are still there. Both teams have experienced QBs who can make the big throws, both have athletic WRs who can be counted on in the clutch and both have pretty good running games - Michigan actually has a tremendous running game whereas OSU's is pretty good. You will hear a lot about Troy Smith's "big playmaking ability", but this is not really relevant this year. Yes, he's capable, but he's been predominately a passer this year (less than 200 total yards rushing this year). Troy Smith does have the edge over Michigan, having won all 3 times he's played against them so far, but let's not forget that Henne has had pretty good numbers in those losses. He's capable of putting up a big game against these Buckeyes.
I think when you look at Michigan's offense against the Buckeye defense, that's where you'll see the biggest advantage for the Wolverines. For starters, their offensive line is giving up less than a sack per game on average. That bodes very well for the Wolverines as the OSU doesn't have the strongest pass rush in the world. If they want to get pressure on Henne they'll have to rely on blitzes. That will open it up for quick read slant passes to the receivers or dump-off passes to Mike Hart - something Michigan is very proficient at doing.
You may have forgotten about a kid by the name of Mario Manningham as he's been injured and out for a few games for Michigan. This is their undisputed #1 receiver and a fine one at that. Look for OSU to focus early on not giving up the big play to Mario - in which case Michigan will chip away with the running game and short passes to open up the big play. Manningham is a game-changing player and may prove to be the difference maker here. And with so much attention on him, it will open things up for Arrington and Breaston as well. And finally, OSU's defense has a tendency to go into the tank against the run - this would be a good game to NOT do that as Hart is one of the nation's most consistent runners. If he gets over 100 yards, it will be hard for OSU to win.
On the flip side, Troy Smith is no slouch - he can pass the ball with tremendous accuracy. Us Horns fans know all too well what he's capable of as a passer. The OSU receiving corps will be tough for the Michigan secondary. UM has one of the bets cover corners in the country in Leon Hall - unfortunately they've only got one of those. SIDEBAR FOR HORNS FANS: A cover corner is a cornerback (or defensive back) who can actually run with and cover receivers as they run their passing routes. It's a foreign concept to us, I know.
So back to the Michigan secondary - they've got some players in this area, but in order for them to be successful, the defensive front will have to get pressure on Smith. Although he's fast, quick and elusive, he's nearly as accurate of a passer when he's on the run. The good news for Michigan fans is I think they rank in the to 2 or 3 in sacks this year. Some will argue that OSU has a slight advantage in the passing game (I totally disagree), but the running game is where OSU will run into some struggles. Michigan is the best defense against the rush in the country - and one of the top 3 overall defenses in the country. The other good news for Michigan is if the front 7 can maintain their pressure and keep the running game in check there will be no need for the safeties to cheat up and help out - leaving them to focus on pass coverage.
One quick special teams note for Michigan - don't kick it to Ginn. Don't even give him a chance to break a big one. If either team does break one, that could be the difference in the game. Kick it out of bounds (punts I mean).
In the end, these teams are almost identical. I'm shocked at how many of the talking heads are picking OSU so quickly here. They could play this game 10 times and I think it might be a 5-5 tie. According to Vegas, the line is 6.5 - THAT IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE!!! I would bet the house on Michigan there - even if they lose, I don't think it's by more than a few points. I know Tressel and the Buckeyes have had Michigan's number the past 4 or 5 years AND they're playing in the Shoe, but I think Lloyd Carr gets his revenge this year. Michigan in an "upset":
Michigan - 31
OSU - 27
Cal (8-2) at USC (8-1):
This one doesn't quite have the intrigue we were all expecting a few short weeks ago - thank you Cal. But, this is a big game nonetheless as it's got major Pac 10 implications - the winner will take the conference title. Although USC has looked especially good the past couple of games it's come against Stanford (like a high school team) and Oregon (pretty good, but overrated). And I think it's fair to chalk up the Cal loss to looking ahead to this game. The most interesting thing here is that this game will represent the strongest opponent either team has faced. Yes, Cal played at Tennessee which is a nice road game, but we saw how that turned out. BUT, to be fair, it was the first game of the year and they are a totally different team right now. USC had some impressive wins over Arkansas and Nebraska - although like Cal, the Arkansas team is a MUCH different team now and we all know how good Nebraska really is (not very).
I'm going with Cal here as I think they want this game more and they have something to prove. They're coming off of a loss so there's the extra added motivation there to come out and make a statement. This Cal offense will absolutely give USC's defense fits and look for a couple of big plays of 25+ yards in this one. USC on the other hand has a talented team and is more than capable of spanking the Bears this year (again), but I'm going with fate in this one.
Cal - 34
USC - 31
Two Other Notable Games:
The Iron Bowl - Auburn at Alabama. This is a rivalry game and as the cliché goes, "throw all the records out the window." You can do that, but I think Auburn still wins this game. They've got problem areas and can have a let down with the best of them, but Alabama is just bad right now - they're in some turmoil that they need to work themselves out of. Auburn takes this one.
Maryland at Boston College - ACC implications here. Both teams are 8-2 and looking for their spot in the ACC championship game. Maryland follows this game up with a visit to Wake Forest so they MUST stay focused here. BC is 6-0 at home this year and look for this one to be a close game and a grudge match with the Eagles pulling it out and moving to 7-0 at home.
MEMO TO…
ESPN. Did you really mean to call this Saturday "Judgment Day"? What ass clown stood up and said, "hey, we should call this Judgment Day because it's a big game and the winner will go to the title game. Yea, Judgment Day." Furthermore, I'd like to know what idiot said, "Great idea! Let's run with it."
Please, in the future, if you insist and creating idiotic titles for specific Saturdays throughout the year that feature good games, please at least try and make it halfway creative. I mean Judgment Day. My gosh.
And another thing, I hit on this a few weeks back, but it's not necessary to have a ticker constantly running on the bottom of the screen counting down to kickoff. First off, if it's Thursday evening, I don't need a reminder that the "big game" is just under 50 hours away. It's college football, it's on Saturdays and I know when this game is because you promo it a thousand times an hour.
And finally, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but after OSU and Michigan play, teams like Arkansas, Florida and USC will have 3 more games. This is not the end of the college football year - not by a long shot. And yes, I know that the winner will go to the championship game, but the real story and excitement is who will be that other team. Let's try and NOT put all of your eggs in one basket, you're going to miss some good football.
ANOTHER MEMO TO…
The Big 10. Do you realize that the winner of the OSU/Michigan game will go 7 weeks before they play the national title game? 7 WEEKS!!! Here's a thought, how about going to pick up another team (it would not be hard and you know it) and have a conference championship game. The Big 10 has the lamest in-conference scheduling and process for choosing champs and runner ups. Here's one for you - in the event that Michigan beats OSU, how do you determine who gets second place? Wisconsin will have 1 loss as will OSU, but they won't have played each other. Hmmm…
Assuming the Big 10 runner up gets an at large big to the Rose Bowl (and they will), Wisconsin would go. Why you ask? Because to settle things like this, Big 10 rules state that the team that has gone the longest without going to the Rose Bowl (or a BCS bowl) gets the nod. So Wisconsin will go ahead of OSU. Is that the best you can come up with???
SO WHO ELSE SHOULD GO TO THE TITLE GAME?
This is what you call throwing fuel on a fire. By that I mean my contributing to this worn out debate. But hey, it's fun, right?
Let's look at a couple of assumptions:
- Assuming USC wins out
- Assuming Florida/Arkansas win out and face each other in the conference championship
- Assuming Rutgers wins out
Who should go? Well, this may not be the more popular vote right now, but here goes. I think Rutgers HAS to go. Are they the sexy choice? No way. Are the best team? I'm not sure, maybe not. BUT, they will have won all of their games including wins over Louisville, Pitt and W. Virginia. People continue to dog the Big East, but I'll make this claim right now - top to bottom, the Big East may be better than the Big 10 and the Big 12. Again, that's top to bottom, not talking about best teams in the conference. And no, it's not the same as Boise State winning out - they play in tier 2 conference. And if one more person tries to work in the "Boise State beat Oregon State who beat USC so BSU should go to this/that bowl" I'm going to puke. Oregon State is a bad team who came together to play a complete game on 1 Saturday. That's college football. That's why it's so hard to go undefeated each year. Outside of Rutgers, it's a toss up. USC's schedule, should they win out, is tough to argue with. But, even with that schedule, the SEC conference winner is VERY hard to argue with, especially Florida.
But what about a rematch you ask? No way this will happen. Human voters will not allow it to happen (which is a whole other story of what's wrong with college football). And they shouldn't. I can't imagine anyone wanting to see this rematch for the title game and think it's good for the game. It's not and it would further diminish the importance of winning your conference in this BCS era. I give this zero chance of happening.
SWITCHING GEARS…TO COLLEGE HOOPS:
OUCH! Heartbreaker game for the Texas basketball team last night. But, the good news about basketball is we actually have a system that works. And in that system, it's GOOD to play games like this to get you prepared. And, we're not feeling all down like this just threw a wrench into our season. Ahhh, college basketball, it's a nice, warm feeling.
Anyway, in case you haven't really noticed yet, this team is very young. You probably haven't recognized one name out there other than AJ Abrams. I'll tell you this too, this is a wicked talented team - the quickness and athleticism they've got is unreal. What they are lacking is experience, chemistry and the ability to know how to win - that's a big deal in this game.
Last night's game showed a lot though. If you let this team run on you, forgetaboutit - they looked like those run-n-gun UNLV teams of the 90s at times last night. But on the flip side, their half-court offense was stale and predictable, pretty much centering around cranking up three pointers as the shot clock was winding down. Kevin Durant needs to take his game into the paint. When he was wildly throwing up 3s, MSU was able to rebound and get settled into their half-court offense. When Durant took it inside, he got to the line or opened it up for easy buckets by teammates. This kid is really unbelievable and even better - he makes his free throws! That's very unusual for Texas teams to be even half-way decent from the charity stripe.
I predict that this team will have a not-so-stellar record heading into conference play, but that they come together, learn their roles and play with chemistry in Big 12 play. This team has the potential to shock some teams this year. They've certainly got the talent and coaching to do so.
And one more note. If you haven't noticed, Florida hasn't skipped a beat from last year. They look very good and very polished. Horford and Noah will be the lion's share of the pub this year, but Corey Brewer is spectacular.
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 9:36 AM
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