Wednesday, December 03, 2008

One Last Hoorah!

Well folks, here it is, the end to another train wreck of a college football season at hand. This season's end comes as a bitter-sweet moment for yours truly. Obviously, as a Texas fan, I'm quite disappointed with the way things turned out, but hey, there's still hope....for an even bigger train wreck to take place - this being the Horns somehow falling ass backwards into the title game based on any number of scenarios. Even though my precious Longhorns got screwed this year, they are by no means unique (and certainly not immune) to the follies that makes up college football.

With that, we've still got some games to play, but before I do, I must do a quick sanity check...for my own sake.

Sanity Check:
- Number of games I expected Texas to win this year - Nine
- Place in the Big 12 South I expected Texas to finish this year - Third
- Bowl I expected Texas to play in this year - Alamo or Holiday
- Chance I gave Texas of even sniffing the opportunity to compete for national title - Zero
- Chance I gave Colt McCoy to compete for the heisman - Less than zero
- Impressed I am with this Texas team this year - VERY
- Amount of comfort this gives me even with the recent events - None

Florida vs. Alabama:
It's no secret that I think Nick Saban is one of the top coaches in college football and has been over the past several years (even with his hiatus to South Beach). There's no doubt that this team has overachieved this year with his slew of underclassmen. Mind you, he's still a piece of crap and a liar, but he's one hell of a football coach. In fact, Saban alone can account for at least 3 wins by just being the head coach on just about any team - and I think he's accounted for at least three this year. However, one thing I do know about Florida - they have a ridiculous number of athletes on that team and a QB who is a proven winner and a proven leader. That counts for a lot. What I'm more interested in seeing is just how good a) Florida's offense is, and b) Bama's defense is. If there's one thing we now know about the SEC it's that the conference is a whole bunch of mediocre teams...at best (at least this year). I'll give you Bama and Florida, but how good is Georgia, really? Just OK. The one bright, up-and-coming spot has to be Ole Miss who has had a hell of a year under first-year coach Houston Nutt. Short of that? Mediocrity.

I'll be honest, although I'm always impressed (well, most times) with teams that can go undefeated, I think Alabama is *much* closer to being on the same plane with Boise State, TCU and Utah than they are with Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and even Penn State (again, at least this year). I think the Tide would be an underdog in each of those games...by more than a TD. Furthermore I think they'd lose against any of those teams on a neutral site. I said it coming into this year and I'll say it again, Saban will have this team riding high year in and year out and will have them competing for a national title within 2 years...this year just ain't one of them. Saban's magic is able to keep it close, but Florida's players will ultimately pull away in this one. Alabama's game plan will go out the window as soon as they get down by 10 or more points, and that won't be a good thing for that anemic offense. SIDENOTE: Harvin's availability, even for part of the game, will be huge this weekend, but I'm still going Gator nation here.

Florida - 42
Alabama - 20

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College:
Seriously, anyone who can figure the ACC out, please give me a call. I've not seen anything like this in one conference since....well, ever. There are 6 teams in each division. In the Atlantic Division, Boston College and Florida State finished 5-3 in conference play - every other team finished 4-4. BC gets the nod due to head-to-head (any other Horns fans out there dry heave every time you read/hear that term?).

In the Coastal Division, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech finished 5-3 with the next 2 teams finishing 4-4 (Duke and Virginia laid an egg this year finishing 3-5 and 1-7 respectively). How crazy is that? 10 of the 12 teams in the conference either went 5-3 or 4-4.

Regardless of how his teams start the season, Beamer is a master of getting his guys ready to grind it out in conference play - give him credit there. The head-to-head (there it is again) victory over a very tough Georgia Tech team was huge. This should actually be a pretty good game as these teams are almost identical in terms of statistical categories. I'm going with experience here and taking Virginia Tech in a close, defensive game.

VaTech - 27
Boston College - 21

Oklahoma vs. Missouri:
Ugggghhhh....how do I go on with this one? OK, here I go. I said this going into the OU/Tech game, I said it going into the OU/Okie State game (going 1-1) and I'm saying it again - Big 12 teams on the road is a suspect proposition at best. Don't believe me? Check the stats. I'm not telling you now that Mizzou will win this game, but I will say this - the Tigers' motivation may be a tad higher in this one. Yes, I know, OU is taking one on the chin re: their defense (as they should, it's pathetic), but caught up in the Big 12 South brew-ha-ha is the fact that Mizzou is more than capable of jumping up and biting these sooners. Will they? Doubt it, but they *are* capable of it.

Look, I'm going to reiterate this yet again: Oklahoma is a VERY good football team - as they always are. They've got the best QB in the game (NOTE: not the best player, but the best QB) and the weapons he has around him make him that much better (in fact, his weapons make a huge part of his success, but that doesn't mean he's a fraud. He's not). It's no secret that these guys can score some points and as my good friend Alan Vassberg pointed out to me this week, they've scored 60+ points in 4 straight games (I assure you I tirelessly countered with their complete lack of a defense). BUT, OU is a one dimensional team. Period. No discussion and no debate. They've got a great offense and, literally, no defense which is why I think if they get by Mizzou, they'll drop their next game. Offense wins games, but defense....you know how that goes. Remember Ohio State's offense with Troy Smith, Tedd Gin and Anthony Gonzales? Remember what happened against Florida in the title game? I believe you'll see a carbon-copy of that game should those two teams square off.

At the end of the day, Bradford and his band of gypsies is a little too much for Mizzou, but be sure to watch this game because Chase will remind everyone (including countless pro scouts who will sure to be paying attention) why he was a top heisman candidate coming into this season and, yet again, exposing the Sooners' defense.

Oklahoma - 49
Missouri - 32

Other College Football Notes:
  • Well Fat Chuck, you've got yourself one more season - the bad news is you've lost recruits, you've lost the student body and I'm pretty sure you've got more doubts than hopes with the administration. It's never been a matter of if, but when with Weiss. Stewart Mandel had a great mailbag column this week where he had a fantastic take on Notre Dame: bottom line is you can't give him the benefit of the doubt because of these top 10 recruiting classes. The only reason they are top recruiting classes is because Notre Dame is recruiting them and people think that automatically makes them top-notch players. It doesn't. Much like USC, you've got to stop with the double standard. Notre Dame is a mediocre football program....at best. Just because the Golden Domers recruit someone doesn't make them a premier athlete.
  • Speaking of Mandel's column - check it out, it's a great one this week. Horns' fans, check out the bit on the Hawaii/Cincy game this weekend - you *may* want to pay special attention that one. Check it out: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/12/03/mailbag/index.html?eref=T1
  • Congrats to Mike Leach for winning the Big 12 coach of the year, very much deserved when all was said and done....
  • Now the question is whether or not Leach will be back in Lubbock. I'm guessing no and here's why: he will NEVER overtake Texas or Oklahoma as the premier program in the south year in and year out. Sure, he may knock one of them off from time to time (see the last couple of years), but he won't ever take the premier spot in that division. Meanwhile, he visited Washington recently and Auburn all of a sudden has an opening. I've got mixed feelings about Washington - piss-poor recruiting ground in general, but I do think he would be able to lure some pretty kick-ass talent out of California given his offensive style. And because the Pac 10 refuses to play defense, I think he'd be fine. Auburn is another story. I think he'd be able to do some good things, but he would have to bring in a premier defensive coach to run things. Hey, Greg Robinson is looking for work!! Seriously, Leach has done a truly tremendous job at Tech and I love having him in the Big 12, but I can't see him staying in Lubbock. The one shining thing re: the money: cost of living in Lubbock and Auburn, AL is MUCH lower than it is in Seattle, WA. We'll see, but if he goes I'll miss him....but not near as much as Hooser and Dicky Grigg will.
  • 4 years: that's the over/under for number of years Kiffin lasts in Knoxville. That dude should have taken another high-profile coordinator position before making this leap. I'm taking the under. Does he know how to recruit???
  • Memo to African-American talking heads: schools announcing "coaches-in-waiting" have nothing to do with trying to avoid having to hire African-American coaches. I promise.
  • I may have said this before, but just in case: assuming Utah gets the automatic "throwing you a bone" BCS bowl bid, you can't tell me that Ohio State deserves one more than Boise State. That's actual football speak. Business speak? Yea, Ohio State is getting the nod.
  • Don't laugh, but look out for Baylor in the next year or two: Robert Griffin took home the newcomer offensive award of the Big 12. He's very good....ask Mike Leach.
  • I'll say this again, assuming Colt comes back next year (he says he will, but we've heard that before), he will own EVERY SINGLE Texas QB/passing record for years and years to come.
  • I know most of us route for the biggest cluster you-know-what with the BCS, but if OU and Texas happen to end up 1 and 2 in the standings and play for the national title (which would then allow Tech to also go to a BCS bowl if invited), do you really think it would force a change? I really doubt it, but if that doesn't do it nothing will.
  • How lame is Pete Carroll? This whole red jersey thing is both disrespectful and stupid. If I'm Slick Rick I'm thinking I may have my defense show that cute little USC offense just what I think about it...watch your back Sanchez. How awesome would it be if UCLA upset the condemns?
  • Seriously though, it won't happen. Not only that, I would say the chances are decent that the Bruins don't score a single point in this one. Sorry Ted and Tom, but seriously, they very well may get shut out.
NFL Playoff Predictions:
Yea, why the hell not, I'll give my thoughts on the top teams heading into the final quarter of the season. All of a sudden, the NFC South is as competitive as any other division in the game. Tampa Bay? Carolina? Dare I say Atlanta? Here's how I see it playing out.

NFC
1. Giants - Seriously, who's going to compete with these guys. I would love nothing more than to watch a playoff game or two with my old colleague and buddy Marko Stewart (a fellow Giant fan). No one else will share my love :( Either way, they're the best of the best...for now. And the way these guys have maintained their focus, I doubt the Plax incident will even faze them. Speaking of him, you have to cut him *immediately*. He will never play a down as a Giant again. And BIG kudos to their GM for structuring a contract deal that gives them next to zero liability. What a wonderfully run organization that is. And what the hell are you doing with a gun.....in a nightclub....loaded....WITH THE SAFETY OFF!!! This is like those people that try and go and live amongst the bears or tigers or whatever - no one feels sorry for you if you get hurt or killed....because you're an idiot.

2. Tampa Bay Bucs - Nothing flashy about these guys other than the fact that they just keep winning. Veteran QB and tough defense. Enough said.

3. Arizona Cardinals - Ugh, someone has got to get it in that division. I love Warner and love their receivers, but you know....it's the Cardinals.

4. Minnesota Vikings - Great run these guys are on right now. Old Gus is efficient and doesn't make a ton of mistakes and he's got Adrian Peterson which doesn't hurt. Honestly, I like the way this team is playing. They've got a fairly easy path remaining with their road games at Detroit and Arizona.

5. Carolina Panthers - The least impressive 9-win team in the league right now. The NFC South is like the ACC in the college game - if you can figure out, please let me know. Either way, they've got a tremendous receiver, a good, tough QB, and a solid defense....they just aren't playing great. Ahhh the NFL, style points are non existent.

6. Atlanta Falcons - By a mile the feel-good story of this NFL season. You have to be happy for Arthur Blank who had his heart ripped out by Vick last year.

AFC
1. Tennessee Titans - 2 of their remaining four games are patsies and Fisher is promising not to "rest" his players. I'm saying 13-3 to end the year. Who saw that coming? Moreover, who saw it coming AFTER benching their "QB of the future"? Great defense and great running game.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers - I said earlier this week, the best team in the AFC. I love everything about this team. Everything. Outside of the Giants they just look like a truly super bowl team.

3. Denver Broncos - I don't know, I can't figure out this conference outside of the two above teams. The Broncos are beyond inconsistent (see the home blowout loss to Oakland followed by a road victory at the Jets). I do think Cutler is a great up-and-coming QB and they have great receivers this year. Young team that will compete for a while.

4. New York Jets - See above. These two teams can swap places and it won't matter.

5. Indianapolis Colts - I'm only putting them here because they beat the Ravens and hold the head-to-head (there it is again Texas fans) tie breaker. I know they aren't impressive, but they just keep winning. And the difference between winning ugly and winning is almost invisible in the NFL.

6. Baltimore Ravens - I said it a week ago and will reiterate it. If you haven't seen Joe Flacco play, please check him out. He's rock solid and on his way to a very successful career in this league. My only concern about this team is that their key defensive stars all seem to be the same age so I hope they've got a solid re-loading plan.

NBA Notes:
  • Great, Great comment by George Karl on the Iverson/Billups trade: "with Iverson we had a premier scorer who could also play point guard. With Chauncey we've got a point guard who can also score. It's worked out great." This trade will end up being HUGE for this team come playoff time. Great move by this organization to keep up with the Joneses of the Western Conference.
  • I hate the Lebron free agency talk in 2 years more than anyone, but I'm really REALLY starting to love this guy. His game is great. If nothing else, we'll remember the 2009 season as the point where the torch of "best in the game" was passed from Kobe to Lebron. Lakers take the crown this year, but this is Lebron's league from here on out...for a long time.
  • Hey Laker fans (or just general NBA fans), if you haven't been introduced to Trevor Ariza yet, pay attention. He's coming off the bench, but he is a stud. He can literally do it all. Very fun player to watch.
  • Hmm...T-Mac out for 3 weeks to rehab a bad knee, huh? Sadly this is probably a sign of things to come.
  • Alright, alright, we get it, Dwayne Wade is back in true form. Great start to the season for this cat. Unfortunately I think Pat Riley is just cocky enough to try and take on Marbury while also trying to ship away Marion. Dude, you've got a good core - make it work with what you've got.
  • Speaking of Marbury: every now and then it would be nice to see a pro sports league (any of them) get with the players' union and agree that on occasion, tossing a player out on his ass is best for everyone. This is one of those instances (see also Pacman Jones).
  • If any of you read the "article" about Bynum being unhappy with Phil's coaching in the fourth quarter of their road loss to the Pacers, read it one more time...closely. That is some grossly incompetent reporting/speculating. He said nothing discouraging. Nothing at all.
  • I've always been a big fan of Amare Stoudamire, but settle down dude. Just keep playing like you always do and it will take care of itself.
  • Speaking of Amare and Lebron - ENOUGH with what might happen in 2010. Seriously, if I'm David Stern I'm shutting this down just as fast as I possibly can. HORRIBLE for the game.
Non-Sports Thought for the Week:
  • No amount of bail out dollars will save GM. And this goes beyond the execs and their business savvy (or lack thereof). First of all, in 2007 GM was the largest health care provider in the country in terms of dollars spent on health care. Why? Because of the inflated pensions/benefits they're paying to retired workers. It's ridiculous - it's in the tens of billions of dollars....to people who don't work there anymore. Clearly there was little to no foresight into this when these decisions were made decades ago. Second, average wage for assembly-line worker at GM: $75/hour. Average wage for assembly-line worker at Toyota plant in Ohio: $47/hour. Unions were a good thing 4 decades ago when they brought equality to the game. They're a bad thing now. Thirdly, MAKE BETTER PRODUCTS!!! Have you ever driven a 3-year old Honda or Toyota? Have you ever driven a 3-year old Chevy/GM? It's not the same thing. GM needs to go bankrupt. Bailing them out will only prolong the inevitable.
  • Anyone else get duped by the "new season of 24 starting" episode a couple of weeks ago? They essentially did a 2-hour episode to set the stage for the real season...which starts in January. Those brilliant bastards got me on that one.
  • I happen to catch the Secret Millionaire show this past Wednesday night. Tear jerker...that's all I'm saying. Anyone who has any illusions at all about the state of New Orleans, hear this: It is miles away from being back to normal. I mean miles away. I wonder if we can spare to print an extra billion or two to rebuild a f'ng school or something down there amidst all of this corporate incompetence bailout.
  • How in the world do college fees/tuition keep rising as fast as they do?
  • Watching Ella's shows with her in the morning has very quickly surpassed watching college football on my list of top fun things to do. It's really, really great.
In closing, I'd like to add a small, yet very funny blurb that made me laugh amidst all of this BCS madness (which I clearly take too seriously - can you tell?). Special thanks to Charlie Brown for passing this on - it really made my day. Enjoy it - I'll be back after the weekend to give my recap, awards, etc. for the 2008 CFB season. Enjoy your weekend:

BCS DECLARES GERMANY WINNER OF WORLD WAR II
US Ranked 4th

After determining the Big-12 championship game participants the BCS
computers were put to work on other major contests and today the BCS
declared Germany to be the winner of World War II.

"Germany put together an incredible number of victories beginning with the
annexation of Austria and the Sudetenland and continuing on into conference
play with defeats of Poland, France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and
the Netherlands. Their only losses came against the US and Russia; however
considering their entire body of work--including an incredibly tough
Strength of Schedule--our computers deemed them worthy of the #1 ranking."

Questioned about the #4 ranking of the United States the BCS commissioner
stated "The US only had two major victories--Japan and Germany. The
computer models, unlike humans, aren't influenced by head-to-head
contests--they consider each contest to be only a single, equally-weighted
event."

German Chancellor Adolph Hiter said "Yes, we lost to the US; but we
defeated #2 ranked France in only 6 weeks." Herr Hitler has been criticized
for seeking dramatic victories to earn 'style points' to enhance Germany's
rankings. Hitler protested "Our contest with Poland was in doubt until the
final day and the conditions in Norway were incredibly challenging and
demanded the application of additional forces."

The French ranking has also come under scrutiny. The BCS commented " France
had a single loss against Germany and following a preseason #1 ranking they
only fell to #2."

Japan was ranked #3 with victories including Manchuria, Borneo and the
Philippines.

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