Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Here We Go Again

Another Saturday, another big game for the Horns...and the Nittany Lions...and the Tide...and the Bulldogs, etc., etc. 5 games remaining for most teams and the allowable margin for error is getting thinner and thinner by the week. Those teams in the top 5 can ill afford to drop one now, but at the same time, as we know, anything can happen in this crazy game - and you just know at least one or two will be dropping out before December rolls around.

Before I get to the myriad of big games this weekend I gotta be the homer I am and start with the Horns.

Oklahoma State at Texas:
I said this earlier this week and I still stand by it - I'm a tad more worried about these Cowboys than I ever was about the Tigers and I'll give you 2 reasons why. First, 4 of the past 5 years Texas has had to make a pretty big comeback to win the game. Most notably, last year, when the Horns were down 35-14 before turning it on and squeaking out the victory. Second, this Okie State team ranks 5th nationally in rushing yards per game at 283. That's a lot. This will be the best rushing team by far that the Horns have faced - and even better news is Okie State hasn't faced a defense that is anywhere near as good as this Texas defense. Win or lose, I'll promise you this - Okie State won't throw up 283 yards on the ground in this game or Will Muschamp might literally murder one of his players. Here are a few more interesting tidbits about these Cowboys that you may not have known:
- They rank 7th nationally in total yards/game at 501
- They rank 4th nationally in points/game at 46 (Texas is second with 48)
- They rank 47th nationally in total defense (misleading fact here - they also happen to be 3rd in this category in the pass-happy Big 12...more on this below)
- And most importantly...they rank 101 in sacks. That will not get it done with this offense.

Make no mistake, this is a pretty formidable opponent the Horns will be facing on Saturday afternoon and it would be advisable to NOT take this team lightly. Good news is the way this Texas team has been playing and progressing this season I can't imagine them taking anyone lightly, but hey, they are 19-21 year-olds after all. You know I'm certainly not one to put all my eggs in the "who have they played" basket, but to some extent is does matter. The Cowboys' first 7 opponents: Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Missouri and Baylor. One of those teams is the undisputed worst team in division 1 football and two are the two bottom teams of the Big 12. I don't say that to take anything away from them because they have taken care of their business in blowout fashion with exception to the Mizzou game who just happened to be their toughest opponent to date. My point is this - this Okie State team is in for quite an awakening when they take the field on Saturday afternoon. I have no doubt they will be pumped up and eager to get their shot at number one on national television, but we'll see what they are really made of this week.

As far as Texas goes - the most important thing they can do is to come out and disrupt the Cowboys right off the bat just as they did against Missouri. They must keep the Okie State offense off the field and not let them get any kind of rhythm going offensively. And if Texas comes out flat and lets them put some quick, easy points on the board then it could get interesting. The good news is this is NOT the best team Texas will have faced this year. If the Cowboys try and establish the run early on they could be in some trouble because as I said before, they ain't putting 200 yards or more on this Texas defense on the ground - no chance.

At the end of the day I can see this being interesting early, but I don't see Texas losing this one - not after the focus, energy and discipline they showed the last couple of weeks. And don't be shocked to see another game where the final score isn't quite indicative of how much they kicked OSU's ass.

Texas - 47
Oklahoma State - 28

Penn State at Ohio State:
If you're a Big 10 fan, but not necessarily a fan of either of these teams, then you REALLY want to pull for Penn State here - the conference needs someone other than the Buckeyes to take a step nationally and this could very well be the year that the Nittany Lions take that step. Even as a die-hard Texas fan I'll admit that I'm not positive Penn State isn't the most balanced team in the country. Not necessarily the best on either side of the ball, but I do think they have more balance than most other teams in the top 7. The bad news is they always seem to step on their cranks when they play the Buckeyes (and of course the OSU defense of late has had something to do with that). The last few times these teams have faced off it's almost as if the Lions have attempted to turn the ball over on purpose - I think OSU defensive backs have even returned a few picks for touchdowns in recent meetings and that simply won't do.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is searching high and low for a means to gain even an ounce of national respect and unfortunately for them I think it's a lose-lose proposition for them this year. It will take something short of a miracle for these guys to fall ass backwards into the title game - even with a victory on Saturday night. I certainly underestimated this Buckeye team last week when they thumped the Spartans in East Lansing so there was no looking ahead for those guys. Meanwhile, the Lions thought they could play only a half and still get by Michigan....and they were right. The amount of points they were able to put up in the second half was quite amazing - they scored 32 points in the second half and gave up zero, after trailing at the half.

I said it above and I'll stick with it - Penn State is one of the most balanced teams in the country and I think they do just enough to get it done at the Horseshoe (I just don't think it's that tough of a place to play).

Penn State - 29
Ohio State - 24

Texas Tech at Kansas (Upset Alert):
History would say that I'm nuts for even suggesting this as a possibility and maybe I am (Tech has won like 9 of the past 10 meetings or something crazy like that). BUT, here's what's driving this - Tech has a H-U-G-E game in Lubbock against the Horns the following week which sets up nicely for a "look ahead" game. And second, Kansas is playing better ball the last couple of years than they have than in their entire existence as a football team. The Red Raiders avoided the Jayhawks last year so they haven't played them since their recent resurgence. And, this game is an 11am kickoff in Lawrence - Tech is not the strongest team in the world when playing early on the road.

Both of these teams have stellar offenses so like 99% of all Big 12 games this year it's going to come down to who can make a stop when it's needed most. Kansas' game against OU last week (a very competitive loss in Norman), I think, will prove to be a good tune up for Saturday's match up. And you could argue that Tech got it's sluggish play out of their system in College Station last week (and against Nebraska before that). Both teams will move the ball with precision and this will no doubt be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. These teams are almost identical in defensive statistics so you can't, on paper, give the edge to one over the other. I'm going with the intangibles here - home team, coming off of a hard-fought loss and controlling it's own destiny in the north division. I've said it before, as impressive as Tech is offensively (and they ALWAYS are), I have no reason, as of yet, to believe this Tech team is any different than any other Tech team of the last 5-6 years.... other than the fact that they haven't lost a game up until this point of the season, but the meet of their schedule starts now. If they win this one in impressive fashion than I'll be a believer in the year of the Red Raider, but, until then, I'm going with this as my upset special. I'm not sure what the over/under is on this one, but I bet it's somewhere in the neighborhood of an even hundy. Don't believe me on this one? Get a second opinion here: http://fannation.com/blogs/post/278295

Kansas - 49
Texas Tech - 47

Georgia at LSU:
If you look at the rankings of these teams' offenses and defenses one might conclude that this is a no brainer - Georgia in a landslide. But, it's the SEC, it's late November and it's in Baton Rouge. If this were a night game I wouldn't even spend 2 minutes on this - I'd pick LSU in a close, ugly game. Other than the home field advantage here, the only other nugget here is that I have more faith in Les Miles than I do with Mark Richt. (My how far I've come on Miles - I remember laughing at LSU for making this hire having seen Miles up close and personal at Okie State for so many years - how wrong I was).

Here's the difference in this one - Georgia is desperate for some national respect and unlike Ohio State, they can earn it right back with a big road win here. And yes, I know the Bulldogs have their annual showdown with Florida next weekend, but the elite teams of the SEC know they can't look ahead and I don't think that will be a problem for Georgia this week - they've got the talent and personnel to get the job done. And even with the injuries they have sustained I still think they are in a better position *right now* than LSU is - give the Tigers another year and they'll be right there in the mix...just not this year.

Georgia - 27
LSU - 14

Other Notable Match Ups:
  • USC at Arizona - The last true "tough" game for the Trojans...and I use that term very loosely. But seriously, Mike Stoops always seems to play these guys tougher than anyone would guess, but I can't see the Wildcats putting a whole hell of a lot of points on this defense. Trojans by 2 touchdowns, but it's interesting early.
  • Alabama at Tennessee - See Georgia at LSU dribble above: It's the SEC in late October where anything is possible. I expect Saban to win here, but I would not at all be shocked to see the Vols eek out an upset. The Tide have a lot to prove on offense.
  • Colorado at Missouri - No clue, but I know this. This will be a VEEERY interesting ball game...
  • Both Brown and Penn have decent warm up games leading into their big showdown next week to determine the front runner for the conference. Yale is coming off of a heartbreaker to Fordham and now hosts Penn. Look for both clubs to take care of business making for some exciting action of really smart kids trying to play big-time football come November first. Go Quakers.
Big 12 vs. SEC:
So yea, I know, I went into this a bit last week, but I felt compelled to throw out a few things as this debate seems to be overtaking the Obama vs. McCain madness as the most asinine back and forth two groups can have....and that's saying A LOT.

So you know the story, right? The Big 12 sucks because they play no defense, but the SEC also sucks because they play no offense. Well, I went in and pulled two high-profile teams to compare conference standings to national standings and here's what I found.

Texas Tech ranks fourth in the Big 12 in total defense and points allowed, but they rank 59th and 43rd respectively on the national level.

Texas ranks second in total defense in the Big 12, but 39th nationally.

On the flip side...

Alabama ranks second in points scored in the SEC, but 32nd nationally.

LSU ranks third in total offense in the SEC, but 40th nationally.

What does it all mean? Nothing. Anyone who can claim to make sense of this and thus, "crown" one team or conference as significantly better than another is just plain wrong. Until I see (THIS YEAR) one of these SEC teams match up against a Big 12 opponent I cannot begin to claim that one particular team is better than another. Texas could just as easily travel to Knoxville, TN and get spanked as Alabama could travel to Lubbock, TX and get shut out. You know it's true and I know it's true. It's no secret that Big 12 offenses get much more possessions a game than do most other conference offenses - partly because of the style of offense they run, the no-huddle and score fast, and the fact that there happens to be a slew of talented and experienced QBs in that particular conference. In fact, take Bradford, Harrell, McCoy and Reasing and put them into mid to upper echelon SEC teams and you'll see the offensive output increase quite a bit - I would almost guarantee that. Just as if you took the LSU's defensive line and plugged them into Missouri's or Okie State's team, you'd see a tremendous jump in statistics.

So which is more important? Good question - it certainly depends on the opponent. On one hand, remember when Florida's defense absolutely suffocated Ohio State's offense 2 years ago in the title game? There's no question that the defensive effort is what led the charge and was ultimately responsible for that win. Conversely, in '05, Texas proved it could win a shoot out against the high-potent offense of USC. Texas made one key defensive play when it had to have one - other than that, it was all offense for both teams. Don't believe me? Go look at the stats for Vince Young, Ramonce Taylor, David Thomas, Matt Lineart, Lendale White and Reggie Bush - absurd offensive numbers on both sides of the ball which means....mediocre defensive numbers. Defense was not responsible for that win - it was offense.

So there...

From the Random File:
Those of us who are/have been die-hard Texas fans through the Mack Brown era can attest to (and admit to) some pretty crazy bashing of Mack Brown over the last 12 years. Don't deny it - you know it's true and I know it's true. Anyway, interesting article by Joe Posnaski of cnnsi.com this week on his pick for one of the best coaches ever.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/joe_posnanski/10/22/mack.brown/index.html

NFL Notes:
  • You know, I used to bash (not really bash so much as NOT drink the kool aid) Tony Romo because, well, I just didn't think he was "all that". After his performances in the past couple of seasons I sort of backed off of that, but of course we still have this "he hasn't really done anything meaningful just yet" looming. Now that these Cowboys are facing some fairly significant adversity he will most certainly be under a microscope - not in his play (he's hurt after all and I certainly don't fault him for that), but in his leadership abilities. If there's one thing Jerry Jones has failed miserably at it's bringing in players who are leaders. Not since Troy Aikman has there been a player who you could say was the undeniable leader of that team. Talent? Sure, boat loads of it, but by now you would think he would learn. I know this - when Brad Johnson was playing last week, Romo was sitting on the bench like a bump on a log. It was almost childish in a way, but I don't want to read too much into that because it's television, but it is what it is - he wasn't apart of that team in any way last Sunday. I'll be interested to see a) how he handles the next few weeks, and b) how he handles coming back.
  • Could Culpepper be an option for the Cowboys? I'm not sure if that's a lateral move or upgrade from Brad Johnson. No clue at all.
  • Seiders pointed a simple, yet very accurate thing this week: this is a very weird NFL season. Case in point: The Colts, Chargers, and now Cowboys(?) kind of suck whereas the Bills, Cardinals, and Dolphins are playing great ball. And the lone remaining undefeated team? The Tennessee Titans with a backup QB and the possibility of one of the bigger busts in recent memory in VY. Weird, weird season.
  • Oh, and the Falcons are 4-2 and in the running for the division. Wha-wha-what???
  • The only saving grace is the Raiders are still a joke and have done their annual coaching change already. Whew, so all isn't quite lost yet.
  • Are we just about done with this Brett Favre to save the Jets talk? Horrible loss in Oakland last week.
  • Let me see if I got this straight: Matt Millen and Favre are good friends; Millen calls Favre to talk about going hunting; they also, apparently, "talk football"; accusations surface that Favre gave "secrets" to the Lions on how to beat the Packers; both Favre and the Lions deny this; the Packers won the game by over 20 points when the two teams met earlier this year. Sooo, why does this story continue to get coverage/discussion? And if I'm not mistaken, one of the main issues with the whole "Favre to retire/not retire" debacle was that the Packers went in another direction with their offense/game plan to accommodate Rogers' skills - so what could Favre possibly offer up that was of any value (which clearly it wasn't...if he did in fact do it). C'mon sports media, you can do better than this.
Non-Sports Thoughts for the Week:
  • Most of you know that I'm a die hard Simpsons fan (the TV show, not the criminal running back) - the beauty of the weeks leading up to Halloween is they show the Halloween specials all week. Great moment from an oldie: Homer is on trial and the devil is the prosecutor laying claim to his soul (Devil played by none other than Ned Flanders). The devil names the jury of the damned: Lizzy Borden, John Dillinger, John Wilkes Booth, Benedict Arnold, the starting front line of the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, and Richard Nixon...before he was dead. That's funny sh*t.
  • Memo to current and future presidential candidates: There's an enormous difference between trying to convince the public that your opponent is not worthy of the job and trying to convince the public that YOU are worthy of the job. Hell, not only presidential candidates, but anyone running for public office. Remember about 17 years ago when this election started and Obama and McCain pledged to run "clean" an honorable campaigns? I must have stopped reading the article or changed the channel right before they both said, "PSYCHE".
  • Check out the latest pics and movies (of cute Ella, not ugly Dad): http://www.dropshots.com/thebeardens#
  • I'll say it again, there is no better show on television today than Mad Men - what a weird, strange trip this show takes every week. Very well written story line.
  • Memo to KXAN (Austin NBC affiliate) and Time Warner - I hate you both...with a passion. This may be the nail in the coffin on my tenure as a Time Warner customer.
  • I'm not sure if you've seen this or not, but espn has this "competition" where they have guys competing against each other....in football video games. They actually televise this. And the best part is a) they're actually wearing the jerseys of the star player of the team they are "representing", and b) they talk some serious sh*t to each other. It's both funny and ridiculous - there may be a bigger group of loser douche bags out there....I just don't know who they are.
That's what I got folks - enjoy the weekend and please, someone, anyone, go by Sun Microsystems stock!!!

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