It's On
Like Donkey Kong. Huge game for both teams - huge. As most of you can imagine I've wrestled with this over and over again in my head, heart and gut and it's a damn tough call. Although this Texas team doesn't resemble any of the train wrecks of past OU games, the scars still run deep. I heard a great comment by Chip Brown on the radio this afternoon - in past years Stoops seemed to focus on the message of this is a huge game on the biggest stage - go enjoy it and relish it. Whereas Mack seemed to give the message of this is a huge game, don't make mistakes. I think that is very insightful and frankly spot on.
Gotta get this off my chest, but one other thing that continues to bother me - how many times have you horns fans uttered these words leading up to this game over the last 8 years: "I can see Texas winning a close game, but I can't see them blowing OU out." It's sad, but it's true. And unfortunately I still think it applies today - I just can't see Texas overwhelming this OU team and blowing the doors open. But I can't say I'd be shocked if OU jumped out to an early lead and kept it. But I don't think that will happen.
I do think, however that this should be one hell of a game - both teams are pretty evenly matched and at this point, you can forget about what teams they've beaten and by how much. Both of these teams are very, very good. Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched:
Offensive Line - Both teams have solid, veteran offensive lines. One reason Bradford is throwing up some wicked numbers is because he's got all day long when he's back in the pocket. Texas is coming off a game where the O-line had a relatively off night - not a terrible night, but not one of their best. Nonetheless, I would put this match up at pretty even, though OU would get a slight edge - they simply have some gigantic dudes (although I think the speed of Texas' front 7 may present some match up problems in this game).
Defensive Line - Rumor is OU will be be at full strength being short handed with injuries, but we'll see. Conversely, this could very well be the best front 7 we've seen at Texas in a long, long time. A healthy Orakpo is a thing of beauty - he's got 5.5 sacks this year already and barring injury is a shoe-in for first team All American. With so much attention to likely be on containing the passing game and as such, getting penetration towards the QB, there will be opportunities for draws and delayed running plays - and OU has had a couple of games where they've given up a good amount of yards on the ground. Additionally, look for the middle of the field to be wide open quite a bit of the time - more on this below. Edge definitely goes to Texas here - not by a mile, but they definitely have the edge, primarily because I include linebackers in this category. As I mentioned above, the OU O-line has a bunch of girth, but they can't contain the speed of Orakop and Kindle - not all day long.
Secondary - This is one of the areas where both teams find themselves with a bit of inexperience. Like Texas, they've had some games where they've given up a good amount of passing yards, but have kept teams out of the end zone. Ironically, both teams are coming off of their best games in the secondary department which should make things interesting - OU held Baylor's high-flying passing game to 87 yards - I know it's Baylor, but these guys have been flinging all over the field. Sounds like a broken record, but this one is even in my book.
Running Backs - I imagine the Texas defensive coaches will be watching a lot of the TCU/OU game where the Horned Frogs held OU to 25 yards rushing for the game. That, my friends, was an anomaly - the season has been a healthy dose of DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, their own little mini-committee of running backs. Although Texas has a larger committee of backs, it doesn't seem to matter as these guys are about dead even in rushing yards and yards per carry so there you have it. What else can you say: Dead even.
Receivers - I alluded to this above - watch the middle of the field being open and thus a huge day for the tight ends. Or should I say, the opportunity for the tight ends to have a big day...Brandon Collins. Look for one of these guys to have a 100+ yard game - linebacker play will be huge here, but look for some big 2nd or 3rd and long plays to the tight end. When you look at the wide receivers this is really where OU's bread and butter is. Their receivers are averaging 15 yards a pop which is quite impressive. The Sooner receivers have a knack breaking big plays by getting behind the secondary for the long ball - this young Texas secondary will be challenged like they haven't been to date and their ability to contain the passing game will go a long way to determine this team's chances.
Quarterback - Ahhh yes, the QB play. As much as these two guys seem alike when you look at their stats, I think they are quite different in their styles of play. Bradford is a much more traditional pocket passer - he can really fling the ball when he's able to sit back and let his receivers do their thing. But, you get pressure on him and get him on the run and he's not as comfortable. Colt on the other hand almost looks like he'd rather be on the run in his passing game - and of course if he gets some open field he can really hurt the defense. The thing is Colt can do things in a game that Bradford can't do - he can make *plays* that few can make. On the other hand, Bradford can make some *throws* and do some things that Colt can't. Colt is the better football player/play maker, but Bradford gets the edge as a quarterback.
As you can see, I think this game will be extremely close. Had you asked me about this game coming into the season I would have said OU without hesitating. Had you asked me 2 weeks ago I would have said probably OU. But now, I'm giving them a chance. Here are my 5 keys to the game for the Horns:
1. Pressuring the QB - It's absolutely imperative that Texas' front seven gets pressure on Bradford and forces him to rush a bit more than he's used to. I'm confident here as this Texas defense will be, by far, the best these guys have seen. As I said above, if they let Bradford sit back and pick them apart I don't give Texas much of a chance.
2. Take care of the ball - If you wanted to, you could really narrow this game down to this stat. Here's a quick look at the last two match ups: Last year OU won, didn't turn the ball over and forced 2 turnovers. The year before, Texas won, didn't turn the ball over and forced two turnovers. Coincidence? Weird? Either way, take care of the damn ball.
3. Who's going to show? - Similar to my point earlier about not realistically seeing Texas being able to blow out OU, you have to ask which Texas team will show up. If you'll recall, the Horns became famous for showing up to this game tight, conservative and indifferent seeming - only to rebound and look like the hungriest team in the country once they got passed this game. I think we'd all agree that this team doesn't resemble anything close to those past teams....but it's still Mack, it's still Greg Davis and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't still a tad worried about it. Don't get me wrong, I think this team will come in ready to play, but it is most definitely a huge key for them.
4. Big Plays - I don't think it's very realistic to say that Texas (or anyone) will shut down the OU offense, but they've got to contain them. I alluded to this above, but you just can't let OU's receivers gut you on the 40+ yard play. This will be a game for playmakers and the playmakers that can make the big plays at the right time will probably end up winning (brilliant analysis, I know).
5. First Quarter Play - OU has been putting up some Play Station-like numbers in the first quarter while holding their opponents to 3 points...combined. I think if Texas can hold OU to a touchdown or less - and even better come out of the first quarter with the lead - it will make the Sooners a bit uncomfortable. And at the end of the day, that's what it's all about.
So, you may be asking, great - but what does it all mean? It all comes down to the X-factor - the one thing that gives one team an edge (albeit slight) over the other. In most of Texas' losses in the last 8 years in this game, it's come down to coaching. Stoops simply outcoached Brown...in a bad kind of way. But this year the Horns have something they haven't had in the past. Will Muschamp. What he's done with this defense in a short time is quite remarkable. Of course let's not look past the fact that he's got some pretty good players, many of them hitting their stride and really starting to feel comfortable in the system. Nonetheless, I honestly, in my heart and in my gut feel that the Texas defense, and not Colt's magic appendages, will be the difference and it's because of Muschamp. As Will "The X-Factor" Muschamp said, "stats are for loses, I want to win." Haven't heard talk like that come out of the 40 acres in I don't know how long - here's hoping it's a sign of things to come.
Texas - 38
Oklahoma - 34
LSU at Florida:
I honestly don't see this as being as tough of a game to call as it has been in recent years. Many (including me) were expecting Florida's offense to take on a different look this year with the addition of a couple of marquee running backs. Well, that hasn't really panned out and as a result, teams are having an easier time having to focus on Tebow and Harvin. Enter LSU's defense - I promise you these guys won't let Tebow/Harvin run wild in this one. On the flip side, Florida's defense is *still* showing numerous kinks in the armor. Yes, they have some ridiculous talent on that defense, but you have to wonder what's going on with so many missed assignments. The Tigers' offense isn't necessarily wowing teams, but they are getting better and better - I imagine Les Miles and company will have a game plan that will expose those Gator kinks. And with regards to coaching - Les Miles just seems to be getting better and better at this. And Urban Meyer you ask? I don't know, but I get the idea that teams are starting to figure out this system more and more. Don't get me wrong, Florida is still a very good football team, but I just don't see them knocking off the Tigers this weekend. But then again, it is the SEC...
LSU - 27
Florida - 22
Upset Watch:
Vandy visiting Miss. State. Vandy is a much more talented team, but when the Bulldogs show up, they can give any team fits - the question is will this be one of the 3-4 times a year when they actually do show up. Still not convinced that Vandy isn't a flash in the pan team that will fall back down to earth sometime soon and what a weekend to do it - coming off of a big win in front of their home crowd with Game Day on hand. And now they travel to Mississippi to play a game that isn't really on any one's radar. AND, they travel to Athens next weekend so tell me they aren't thinking about that one. Stinks of upset to me. MSU by 3 points.
Other College Football Notes:
Cincy - getting 6.5 to Jets in NY (taking the points here)
Chicago - giving up 2.5 at Atlanta
Detroit - getting 13.5 at Minnesota (can't see the Vikings beating anyone by 14 pts)
Washington - giving up 12.5 at home against Rams
Tampa Bay - giving up 2.5 at home to panthers
Miami - getting 3.5 on the road at Houston
Baltimore - getting 5.5 on the road against Colts
Jacksonville - getting 3.5 points on the road against Broncos (Jags play very well in Denver)
Green Bay - getting 3.5 on the road against the Seahawks
Philly - giving up 6.5 on the road against San Fran (gotta think these guys come up in a must-win game here)
Arizona - getting 5.5 points at home against Dallas (Boys win, but closer than this I think)
New England - getting 5.5 points on the road against San Diego (Chargers win, but closer than this)
New York - Giants giving up 7.5 on the road against Cleveland. Who's playing better than the giants right now? Not Cleveland.
Alright - full disclosure - now let the insults and fun making begin...
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend, cheer hard and if you're going to the game, don't forget to pick out an OU fan and kick them when they're not looking. Go Horns....please God Go Horns!!!
Gotta get this off my chest, but one other thing that continues to bother me - how many times have you horns fans uttered these words leading up to this game over the last 8 years: "I can see Texas winning a close game, but I can't see them blowing OU out." It's sad, but it's true. And unfortunately I still think it applies today - I just can't see Texas overwhelming this OU team and blowing the doors open. But I can't say I'd be shocked if OU jumped out to an early lead and kept it. But I don't think that will happen.
I do think, however that this should be one hell of a game - both teams are pretty evenly matched and at this point, you can forget about what teams they've beaten and by how much. Both of these teams are very, very good. Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched:
Offensive Line - Both teams have solid, veteran offensive lines. One reason Bradford is throwing up some wicked numbers is because he's got all day long when he's back in the pocket. Texas is coming off a game where the O-line had a relatively off night - not a terrible night, but not one of their best. Nonetheless, I would put this match up at pretty even, though OU would get a slight edge - they simply have some gigantic dudes (although I think the speed of Texas' front 7 may present some match up problems in this game).
Defensive Line - Rumor is OU will be be at full strength being short handed with injuries, but we'll see. Conversely, this could very well be the best front 7 we've seen at Texas in a long, long time. A healthy Orakpo is a thing of beauty - he's got 5.5 sacks this year already and barring injury is a shoe-in for first team All American. With so much attention to likely be on containing the passing game and as such, getting penetration towards the QB, there will be opportunities for draws and delayed running plays - and OU has had a couple of games where they've given up a good amount of yards on the ground. Additionally, look for the middle of the field to be wide open quite a bit of the time - more on this below. Edge definitely goes to Texas here - not by a mile, but they definitely have the edge, primarily because I include linebackers in this category. As I mentioned above, the OU O-line has a bunch of girth, but they can't contain the speed of Orakop and Kindle - not all day long.
Secondary - This is one of the areas where both teams find themselves with a bit of inexperience. Like Texas, they've had some games where they've given up a good amount of passing yards, but have kept teams out of the end zone. Ironically, both teams are coming off of their best games in the secondary department which should make things interesting - OU held Baylor's high-flying passing game to 87 yards - I know it's Baylor, but these guys have been flinging all over the field. Sounds like a broken record, but this one is even in my book.
Running Backs - I imagine the Texas defensive coaches will be watching a lot of the TCU/OU game where the Horned Frogs held OU to 25 yards rushing for the game. That, my friends, was an anomaly - the season has been a healthy dose of DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, their own little mini-committee of running backs. Although Texas has a larger committee of backs, it doesn't seem to matter as these guys are about dead even in rushing yards and yards per carry so there you have it. What else can you say: Dead even.
Receivers - I alluded to this above - watch the middle of the field being open and thus a huge day for the tight ends. Or should I say, the opportunity for the tight ends to have a big day...Brandon Collins. Look for one of these guys to have a 100+ yard game - linebacker play will be huge here, but look for some big 2nd or 3rd and long plays to the tight end. When you look at the wide receivers this is really where OU's bread and butter is. Their receivers are averaging 15 yards a pop which is quite impressive. The Sooner receivers have a knack breaking big plays by getting behind the secondary for the long ball - this young Texas secondary will be challenged like they haven't been to date and their ability to contain the passing game will go a long way to determine this team's chances.
Quarterback - Ahhh yes, the QB play. As much as these two guys seem alike when you look at their stats, I think they are quite different in their styles of play. Bradford is a much more traditional pocket passer - he can really fling the ball when he's able to sit back and let his receivers do their thing. But, you get pressure on him and get him on the run and he's not as comfortable. Colt on the other hand almost looks like he'd rather be on the run in his passing game - and of course if he gets some open field he can really hurt the defense. The thing is Colt can do things in a game that Bradford can't do - he can make *plays* that few can make. On the other hand, Bradford can make some *throws* and do some things that Colt can't. Colt is the better football player/play maker, but Bradford gets the edge as a quarterback.
As you can see, I think this game will be extremely close. Had you asked me about this game coming into the season I would have said OU without hesitating. Had you asked me 2 weeks ago I would have said probably OU. But now, I'm giving them a chance. Here are my 5 keys to the game for the Horns:
1. Pressuring the QB - It's absolutely imperative that Texas' front seven gets pressure on Bradford and forces him to rush a bit more than he's used to. I'm confident here as this Texas defense will be, by far, the best these guys have seen. As I said above, if they let Bradford sit back and pick them apart I don't give Texas much of a chance.
2. Take care of the ball - If you wanted to, you could really narrow this game down to this stat. Here's a quick look at the last two match ups: Last year OU won, didn't turn the ball over and forced 2 turnovers. The year before, Texas won, didn't turn the ball over and forced two turnovers. Coincidence? Weird? Either way, take care of the damn ball.
3. Who's going to show? - Similar to my point earlier about not realistically seeing Texas being able to blow out OU, you have to ask which Texas team will show up. If you'll recall, the Horns became famous for showing up to this game tight, conservative and indifferent seeming - only to rebound and look like the hungriest team in the country once they got passed this game. I think we'd all agree that this team doesn't resemble anything close to those past teams....but it's still Mack, it's still Greg Davis and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't still a tad worried about it. Don't get me wrong, I think this team will come in ready to play, but it is most definitely a huge key for them.
4. Big Plays - I don't think it's very realistic to say that Texas (or anyone) will shut down the OU offense, but they've got to contain them. I alluded to this above, but you just can't let OU's receivers gut you on the 40+ yard play. This will be a game for playmakers and the playmakers that can make the big plays at the right time will probably end up winning (brilliant analysis, I know).
5. First Quarter Play - OU has been putting up some Play Station-like numbers in the first quarter while holding their opponents to 3 points...combined. I think if Texas can hold OU to a touchdown or less - and even better come out of the first quarter with the lead - it will make the Sooners a bit uncomfortable. And at the end of the day, that's what it's all about.
So, you may be asking, great - but what does it all mean? It all comes down to the X-factor - the one thing that gives one team an edge (albeit slight) over the other. In most of Texas' losses in the last 8 years in this game, it's come down to coaching. Stoops simply outcoached Brown...in a bad kind of way. But this year the Horns have something they haven't had in the past. Will Muschamp. What he's done with this defense in a short time is quite remarkable. Of course let's not look past the fact that he's got some pretty good players, many of them hitting their stride and really starting to feel comfortable in the system. Nonetheless, I honestly, in my heart and in my gut feel that the Texas defense, and not Colt's magic appendages, will be the difference and it's because of Muschamp. As Will "The X-Factor" Muschamp said, "stats are for loses, I want to win." Haven't heard talk like that come out of the 40 acres in I don't know how long - here's hoping it's a sign of things to come.
Texas - 38
Oklahoma - 34
LSU at Florida:
I honestly don't see this as being as tough of a game to call as it has been in recent years. Many (including me) were expecting Florida's offense to take on a different look this year with the addition of a couple of marquee running backs. Well, that hasn't really panned out and as a result, teams are having an easier time having to focus on Tebow and Harvin. Enter LSU's defense - I promise you these guys won't let Tebow/Harvin run wild in this one. On the flip side, Florida's defense is *still* showing numerous kinks in the armor. Yes, they have some ridiculous talent on that defense, but you have to wonder what's going on with so many missed assignments. The Tigers' offense isn't necessarily wowing teams, but they are getting better and better - I imagine Les Miles and company will have a game plan that will expose those Gator kinks. And with regards to coaching - Les Miles just seems to be getting better and better at this. And Urban Meyer you ask? I don't know, but I get the idea that teams are starting to figure out this system more and more. Don't get me wrong, Florida is still a very good football team, but I just don't see them knocking off the Tigers this weekend. But then again, it is the SEC...
LSU - 27
Florida - 22
Upset Watch:
Vandy visiting Miss. State. Vandy is a much more talented team, but when the Bulldogs show up, they can give any team fits - the question is will this be one of the 3-4 times a year when they actually do show up. Still not convinced that Vandy isn't a flash in the pan team that will fall back down to earth sometime soon and what a weekend to do it - coming off of a big win in front of their home crowd with Game Day on hand. And now they travel to Mississippi to play a game that isn't really on any one's radar. AND, they travel to Athens next weekend so tell me they aren't thinking about that one. Stinks of upset to me. MSU by 3 points.
Other College Football Notes:
- Good move Tommy Tuberville on axing your O-Coordinator - you just had to make a move there.
- So I'm quite surprised to see how much trash talking I'm seeing on message boards and talk shows by the Mizzou fans - talking about the Texas game *next* weekend. There are 2 things, and 2 things only, that I know about Mizzou right now: 1) they are actually playing a game this weekend against Okie State so you may want to pay attention to that - after all, Okie State is also 5-0. And 2) your defense is less than stellar this year and this Cowboy team is more than capable of throwing up some big numbers. I certainly think Mizzou wins this game, but settle down Tiger fans...you'll get your shot.
- One more note on the Texas game - no one, and I mean NO ONE outside of Austin is giving this Texas team much of a chance. I'm not seeing a lot of "Horns will get killed" talk, but I haven't seen one "expert" pick Texas as of yet. We'll see what Mandel has to say tomorrow....a week after picking CU to beat Texas. And by the way, I LOVE it that they aren't getting much of a chance. Love it.
- How bad will ASU get beat at USC this weekend? Pretty bad.
- I'm veeeery interested to see what happens when Nebraska visits Tech this weekend. I fully expect to see Tech put up some gaudy numbers here, but I'm more interested to see how Pelini is able to get his team to respond after the whoopin' they took at home last weekend.
- More on the Tech game: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/270736
- Speaking of - remember when Lincoln, Nebraska was like the toughest place to play a football game in the world? Fox Sports had the replay of the 2002 Tx/Nebraska game in Lincoln when Tx knocked off the Huskers....again. Crazy game: Simms had 400+ yards passing; Nebraska had 300+ yards rushing; Texas tried to give the game away via special teams, but at the end it was Nathan Vasher making the miracle INT to seal the deal. Great game.
- Georgia - you had better win this game...and I mean win it big. If you'll recall, the Vols demolished the Dawgs last year and they simply can't afford a let down now.
- We're going to learn A LOT about those Penn State Lions over the next few weeks - they visit Wisconsin this weekend, get Michigan at home the following weekend and then they visit Columbus. I'm still betting on PSU to win the conference, but I can see them dropping one of those games. They *should* knock off Wisconsin this weekend though.
- Look for Butch Davis to continue the growth/improvement of this Tarheel team as they knock off Notre Dame at home this weekend. I don't know if you'd call that an upset or not, but Davis has a good thing going and they just need to keep wining.
- Don't look now, but the Bears are averaging 4 touchdowns a game over the last 3 games. Huh? Is Kyle Orton the great white hope? Only if the alternative is Grossman. Look for them to overwhelm the Falcons who are still riding a high from their victory at Lambeau last week.
- I think the Saints destroy the Raiders this weekend - they have to still be kicking themselves after giving away that game to the Vikings on Monday night.
- And speaking of the Saints, here's one of only about 3 or 4 things I've been wrong about the last few years: I did say that Bush would never be an every-down back in the NFL (which I still stand by), but his ability to turn a game around on a single play is really something else. Watching him on punt return against the Vikings was ridiculous...but not as ridiculous as the fact that Minnesota kept kicking to him!!!
- Be careful Cowboys - the Cardinals can light you up and they can do it quickly at times. I don't think Arizona wins this game, but I do think it's less than a touchdown. Keep feeding Felix and Marion Wade, keep feeding them.
- Can we please put an a moratorium on having Cleveland play on Monday nights? Sheesh.
- I'm not sure who that guy is playing running back for the Chargers, but it ain't Tomlinson. I feel for the guy...but not as bad as I feel for the countless folks who took him with the first pick in their fantasy league.
- Game of the week: Patriots at Chargers. For all talk the Pats are getting, let's not forget they only have 1 loss. The Chargers on the other hand are in a HUGE must-win game. Chargers in a very, very close game.
- And finally, in my attempt to share the misery of my consistently horrible picks in my NFL pick 'em game - here's who I took:
Cincy - getting 6.5 to Jets in NY (taking the points here)
Chicago - giving up 2.5 at Atlanta
Detroit - getting 13.5 at Minnesota (can't see the Vikings beating anyone by 14 pts)
Washington - giving up 12.5 at home against Rams
Tampa Bay - giving up 2.5 at home to panthers
Miami - getting 3.5 on the road at Houston
Baltimore - getting 5.5 on the road against Colts
Jacksonville - getting 3.5 points on the road against Broncos (Jags play very well in Denver)
Green Bay - getting 3.5 on the road against the Seahawks
Philly - giving up 6.5 on the road against San Fran (gotta think these guys come up in a must-win game here)
Arizona - getting 5.5 points at home against Dallas (Boys win, but closer than this I think)
New England - getting 5.5 points on the road against San Diego (Chargers win, but closer than this)
New York - Giants giving up 7.5 on the road against Cleveland. Who's playing better than the giants right now? Not Cleveland.
Alright - full disclosure - now let the insults and fun making begin...
That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend, cheer hard and if you're going to the game, don't forget to pick out an OU fan and kick them when they're not looking. Go Horns....please God Go Horns!!!
posted by The Bearden Wonder at 10:06 PM
1 Comments:
Ryan, I know I never comment on your blog, but I always, always read it! I look forward to it each week! So...keep doing what you're doing. Thanks!!
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