Thursday, November 29, 2007

Championship Week

As crazy as this season has been, the potential movement in the polls after this weekend could be quite a show. Nice to see lots of meaningful games to settle things heading into the bowl season. I'm predicting a big "payback" weekend.

Weirder than this - the coaching carousel that has already occurred. I don't know if it's fair or accurate to say "shady", but definitely weird.

But first...

UCLA at USC:
It seems we all forgot how impressive USC looked at the beginning of the season when they were healthy. Lest we forget UCLA had a HUGE upset last year, beating the Trojans in the Rose Bowl. I'm not buying a repeat - not at all. In fact, I'm taking USC big in this one - it's a payback and a statement game heading into bowl season. USC's defense will suffocate this anemic Bruin offense...who are down to about their 6th string QB right now. I'd say you can chalk 7-10 points for the defense in this game.

USC - 49
UCLA - 16

Arizona at Arizona St.:
Normally I'd say ASU would probably win this game. But, Arizona has to be brimming with confidence coming in with a 3-game winning streak including a win over then-second-ranked Oregon (that ranking lasted about 30 minutes). I know he doesn't have much to work with, but Mike Stoops is a master motivator and defensive mind and given the fact that the Sun Devils, like the Longhorns, prefer to only show up in the second half, I'm picking the upset here. You saw what I said about this ASU team last week - no matter who they play during bowl season, I'm picking against them....and it may just be those Longhorns. Sheesh, what a game that would be (sarcasm alert).

Arizona - 28
Arizona State - 24

Backyard Brawl:
I'd like to think this will be a good game, I really would. With a name like that, how could it not be, right? Wrong! The Mountaineers know that a win here would all but secure them a shot in the title game - a blowout here would seal for sure. And Pittsburgh is simply not that good.

West Virginia - 52
Pitt - 20

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech:
Chalk this up to one of those payback games I alluded to above. The Hokies are playing very well right now and their two losses came against these Eagles and the LSU Tigers - not a bad resume. It seems Frank Beamer has found a nice rhythm with his dual QB situation. I'm rarely in favor of a dual-quarterback offense, but hey, it's working so go with it until it doesn't. Virginia Tech in a blowout here.

Virginia Tech - 32
Boston College - 18

LSU vs. Tennessee:
Now here's one heck of a game (I believe). Phillip Fulmer has to be feeling good about his team's chances, coming off of a tough road win at Kentucky and with his QB playing so well the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile, you really have to wonder about LSU's motivation right now. Of course they want to win, all teams do, but the title game is such a long shot for them right now, it could really show in this performance. I know the Vols don't have Darren McFadden in the backfield, but you gotta think they're looking to establish some sort of run early.

Who knows though, LSU could come out and rebound and hand Fulmer a monumental loss (he's had a couple this year), but I don't see it happening. The Arkansas upset coupled with Miles' seemingly imminent departure to Michigan may be too much of a distraction - I'm going with the Vols here as I think it would mean more to them - they have no illusions of national titles, but they do so badly want the conference crown.

Tennessee - 27
LSU - 21

Missouri vs. Oklahoma:
This, to me, has all the makings of a payback to me. Missouri is flying high after their big win last weekend while Oklahoma may be thinking about what could have been had they only beaten the Red Raiders (welcome to how Texas feels every single year...what could have been). They did rebound with that blowout over arch-rival Okie State, but is that really a worthy consolation?

Meanwhile, Missouri can see the title game straight ahead - and it's there for the taking. I'm picking Missouri and picking them big in this game. Oklahoma's defense (grossly overrated coming into this year we now know) will be sucking wind from chasing Daniel all day long. Plus, the Tigers have their #1 RB for this game; they did not have him the first time these two teams met. You'll also recall that Missouri led the first meeting going into the fourth quarter until a botched reverse play led to a OU touchdown that proved to be the beginning of the end for the Tigers. Not this time my friend. I imagine the Mizzou coaching staff will have a couple of new wrinkles as well. Yes my friends, I'm taking the "upset" here. By the way, OU is ranked lower, playing on a neutral field....and is favored. Sure-fire sign Mizzou wins.

Missouri - 34
Oklahoma - 21

So Who Does Deserve To Be in the Big Game?
A great question and one that is beyond worn out at this point. However, it's a bit more interesting this year considering the extreme parity we've seen. It's pretty clear that should Missouri and W. Virginia win out (which I believe will happen), they are pretty much a lock. But, should one or both of these teams falter, what then will happen??? I'm not sure, but let's see what we got:

Ohio State - Can't deny the year these guys have had. Have they played anyone? No, but guess what gang, most teams don't really play top teams - it's suicide in this BCS system. However, let's give them credit for the home-and-home they just had with Texas and they'll start a home-and-home with USC starting next year. Not too shabby in a time when match ups like that are unheard of. I do, however, have an issue with a team getting in whose loss came from one of their last 2 games. But again, if they were to back in, it wouldn't be too outlandish, but I'm not in favor of it.

Georgia - These guys are red hot right now, no doubting it. There's one reason why these guys should not even be considered - not only did they not win the conference title, they did not contend for it. As good as this team is right now, you can't get a shot if you don't win your conference - that's my personal rule. But, we've seen it in the past with Nebraska not playing for the conference title and getting in the big game and OU getting blasted by Kansas State in the title game (by 31 points) and still making the title game so don't discount these guys just yet, but it's a mighty long shot.

LSU - Ahhh yes, these guys. Obviously these guys would need to win and win big in the title game against the Volunteers, as well as have both Mizzou AND West Virginia lose. Again, I would have an issue with a team who lost 1 of their last two games getting to the title game, but like Ohio State, this year it seems anything can happen and NO ONE wants to be the premier team.

USC - As Stewart Mandel mentioned in his mailbag column this week, there's only one way for USC to get into the title game: get in Doc Brown's Delorean, go back in time and not lose to Stanford. With that said, this Trojan team sure seems to be one that no one wants to face right now. I do think the "USC is all-world supremacy" status is gone and with parity like this, may be gone for good. I know I'll be anxious for the OSU/USC match up early next year. USC will be in the Rose Bowl against either Illinois or Georgia - that's my guess. I'm hoping Georgia as I think it will be a better game, but those bastards at the Rose Bowl suck about as bad as Hitler - they're more concerned with their tradition than what's good for the game. And here's one for you if you didn't know - the Rose Bowl is actually not part of the BCS. Part of my contempt for the Big 10 and Pac 10 stems from the tie-in with the Rose Bowl. Get over yourselves guys, kids these days barely remember the great "tradition" of the Rose Bowl.

Coaching Carousel:
As I've mentioned above, we've seen some crazy things already in the world of rotating coaches - namely A&M's quick-fire hire along with Ole Miss snatching up Houston Nutt before the LSU/Arkansas game even ended. And guess what friends, there will be more to come. I briefly alluded to the Aggie hire last week, but after thinking about it, I'm STILL scratching my head. Of the Aggie faithful I've heard over the past week, most are a bit surprised, but cautiously optimistic. Hell, Sherman could come in and turn them into a national powerhouse. I sincerely doubt it, but it's certainly possible.

If I'm an Aggie fan, I'm asking a few key questions:
1. Did you even put in a phone call to Tommy Tubberville, Rich Rodriguez, Mike Belloti or Steve Spurrier - did you even inquire?

2. What in the world was the hurry? Why snatch this guy up so fast?

3. Finally, I'm curious, of the major programs that will looking for new coaches this year (Nebraska, Michigan, Arkansas and LSU...probably), was Mike Sherman in the top 2 or 3 on any of those lists? I suspect no, but again, I could be wrong.

Let's be honest, Sherman does have some experience in the college game - and in College Station on that. He was an assistant under Slocum in the early and mid 90s. But, as I've mentioned, A&M's most urgent needs is recruiting and I'm not sure Mike Sherman is the guy to address that need. Again, I could be wrong, but I'm going to doubt he's going to immediately come in and compete in recruiting with Mack Brown and Bob Stoops, 2 of the best in the recruiting business. And don't forget, he'll be competing with LSU in the Houston/East Texas area as well. And let's be honest, when you look at the A&M program compared with Texas, Oklahoma and LSU programs, which one seems to not fit in the same discussion as the others? Right. I think Mr. Sherman will find that quite a lot has changed in the college football world since he was last in the game over 10 years ago. We shall see...

And Ole Miss snatching up Houston Nutt in about 20 minutes??? Very weird. I mean, as bad as this program has been....forever, what in the world makes them think that Nutt is the guy. I can't for the life of me figure this one out. I give this relationship about 3 or 4 years before it completely implodes. Interesting too that he bolts to not only a conference foe, but a divisional one as well - he'll see Arkansas every year. Weird, weird hire there.

Other notes in the coaching world:
  • Greg Robinson gets ANOTHER year??? Unreal. Talk about an AD who is not committed to bettering the football program. Hey, it ain't going to work with Greg - cut your ties....so Texas can hire him as their defensive coordinator.
  • Let's see - Michigan requests permission to speak to Les Miles and LSU obliges. Les Miles has a clause in his contract saying he can bolt for Michigan if they ever come calling. Sorry LSU fans, he's gone. But, I will say this, Les Miles hasn't really accomplished anything other than winning a lot of games. This is not a knock on Miles as much as it is a bright spot for LSU - with the stocked pool of talent you've got, I could probably coach these guys to a 9-win season next year. Go out and get a good one LSU...because you can. Don't pull an A&M or Ole Miss here - you can be selective.
  • I'm still praying for significant changes on the coaching staff at Texas....still waiting. Don't f*&k this up Mack.
  • I was dead sure that Kyle Dorrell would be gone by year's end and I still think he will, barring an upset over USC (won't happen). But who will these guys go and get? Clearly UCLA doesn't have the clout or intrigue in the college football world that LSU or Nebraska have, but they should be able to get someone good to come and live in LA. Plenty of recruiting in California as well.
  • Who is going to be the Nebraska coach? Well, for now, it's old-man Osborne. In a very smart move, he's named himself interim head coach so he can go out and start talking to recruits. This is a double-edge sword: if he's talking with Nebraska-faithful recruits, this will work very well. If he's talking to kids just interested in possibly going to Nebraska, but didn't grow up as big Husker fans, they'll wonder who this old man is and why is he here.
  • Bo Pellini seems to be in a pretty good situation right now - he's on the short list with both Nebraska and LSU. Those are pretty good programs to be considered for in the same month. And if he doesn't get the nod for either, here's hoping Mack looks to nab him for D-coordinator.
  • Boy, I sure am talking a lot about a new defensive coach at Texas considering Mack hasn't fired anyone yet...
The Boys:
Well, I heard about 10 minutes of this game on the radio last night running errands and doing happy hour. Unfortunately I heard the worst part - the first half when Dallas drubbed the Packers early. Looks like old Aaron Rogers actually made it competitive in the second half. Not going to say the Pack would have won had Favre been in there, but it was a close game considering he WASN'T in there. I really don't like the Cowboys one single bit, but I gotta say, they most certainly look very good. With Owens keeping his mouth shut and Romo having all day to throw each pass, they certainly seemed poise to make a big run.

I'm certainly surprised at the Cowboy success of late - only one person I know called them being this good at the beginning of the year - Big Redwood. And it would appear they may be better than he expected. Considering they play in the NFC, these guys could conceivably go 15-1 or 14-2. I'll still hold judgment on the super bowl talk given this particular team hasn't done dick in the post season just yet and we all know, it's a whole other world when January rolls around. We shall see, but all things being equal, I'm not sure there's anyone who will compete with them down the stretch.

And let's hope Brett is OK to play the rest of the way. Good news is they don't play again until December 9th.

Taylor:
Damn shame about Sean Taylor. I know he wasn't a model citizen growing up at the U and his first year in the league, but you just wouldn't wish this on anyone. The worst part - as the details begin to unravel here, I think it's a very good chance we'll see a little bit of the seedy life of Sean Taylor. And you know they'll catch the guy - criminals like this aren't very intelligent. Hell, they're dumber than dirt and let's just pray that they catch the guy (or girl) who did this very soon.

In terms of playing or postponing their game, you have to play the games Washington. Let's be honest, 24-year old black men are gunned down every single day in this country and they don't shut anything down - they keep working and living. It's not a happy thought, but it is an unfortunately reality. Play the games Washington, it will help the fans, the players and everyone touched by this.

Other NFL Notes:
  • The media is trying to make the Patriots at Ravens game a big one and if last year was the only indication (where Baltimore went 13-3), it would be a big game. But this year is our indication and Baltimore stinks. Pats in a major blowout.
  • Look for the Lions to begin their free fall - I say they win 1 more game this year...and that's it.
  • ACTION ITEM FOR YOU, THE READER: Someone who has any idea how scoring in fantasy football works tell me how many points Devin Hester has accrued this year with punt and kickoff returns for TDs. Do they even count punt/KO return in the scoring?
  • Indy/Jacksonville game this weekend is a big one for supremacy in the AFC Central division - believe it or not, a Jacksonville win will put them ahead of the Colts in the division. I wonder if the sky will fall if that happens.
  • Dolphins at Steelers last Monday night - worst NFL game I've seen in who knows how long.
  • If you're a pro franchise, how in the world do you allow 4 high-school games and a college game to be played on the field PRIOR TO your beloved Steelers? The field conditions were a joke and if I'm Goodell, I'm sending a letter to the owners in Pittsburgh saying 'next time, the game is canceled and you're fitting the bill for lost costs'. Unacceptable to have those kinds of field conditions at the professional level.
  • Here's one for you: the Dolphins, who are winless, are favored over the Jets this weekend. How does that feel Jets fans?
Response to Reader Comment:
In case you did not see, there was a comment posted to my last entry from a former colleague, Bud. I miss talking college football with Bud - even though he's a die-hard aggie, he is the most loyal and knowledgeable aggie I know. Here's what Bud's comment was:

A&M is 15-15 over the last 30 years against tu, including the last decade which is certainly the worst decade in A&M football in recent history.
Someday, you might realize you're not quite as far ahead as you think.

Clearly Bud was directing his comment on my tirade about how upset I was that Texas lost to a very mediocre aggie team. Couple of things here:
1. Are you pointing out the 15-15 record as an indication of Aggie goodness or Texas badness? It's a bad stat for either argument.

2. Who gives a hoot what happened over the last 30 years. Over the last 10, Texas holds a 7-3 advantage if I'm not mistaken. Granted, the Aggies have won the last 2 straight, but when you look at the programs at a whole, Texas is head and shoulders above the aggie program and has been for quite some time. But again, let's be fair, the aggettes have scoreboard over Texas the last 2 years.

3. This sounds bad and I hate saying it, but in this instance it's completely true. That game last Friday had more to do with Texas underachieving than the aggies overachieving. Anyone who had followed both teams throughout this year knows that. Don't get me wrong, Texas was grossly overrated this year and grossly underachieved, but the aggies were just OK this year...at best.

4. "Someday you might realize you're not quite as far ahead as you think" - the Texas program is so far ahead of the Aggie program RIGHT NOW, it's ridiculous. I'm not one to hoist Mack onto a pedestal (for any reason), but should Texas win their bowl game, that will be 8 consecutive years with 10 or more wins. When was the last time the Aggies won 10 or more? I will give you this, for all of those 10-win seasons, Texas has only won 1 conference title (Stoops is going for his 5th tomorrow). That is unacceptable. I said this at the very beginning of the year, Texas should have its sights on a conference title every year. Why? Because they're more than capable of winning one - they've certainly got the talent to do so. A&M on the other hand? Let's start with beating Tech just once. Or halfway competing against OU just once.

5. Finally, if you're going to go back and look at the record over the last 30 years, let me throw this lifetime gem at you: 73-35-5. I'll let you figure out who's on the business end of that record.

That's what I got gang - enjoy the weekend and the games. I'll be traveling for work starting Sunday so I'll get another posting out this time next week recapping the games and looking ahead to the bowl season.

What To Watch:
Texas Running Horns at the #1-ranked UCLA Bruins on Sunday afternoon/evening. Check it out. HUGE game for Texas.


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