Monday, November 19, 2007

Thanksgiving Special

This is a very special Thanksgiving - when was the last time the Packers/Lions game meant squat? We've also got Arizona State at USC which will determine who gets the edge in the Pac 10. And that's just the half of it!!

Big weekend for Texas....and all of a sudden for Oklahoma too. Numerous implications this weekend and it will no doubt be some crazy games. Let's look...

Missouri vs. Kansas:
And so it begins - by and far the best competition both of these teams have faced this year...by a mile. Missouri did play (and lose to) Oklahoma, but if anything, we've got more question marks about those guys as well. With that said, I still think both of these guys are really good teams. I've got two primary concerns for Missouri: 1) they're defense is VERY jeckyl and hyde, and 2) they have not been as consistent/methodical as Kansas has been.

Missouri's defense absolutely must show up because there's nothing we've seen to indicate Kansas' offense won't show up. I'm also confident that we'll see a very good game by Chase Daniel - perhaps definitively throwing his hat into the heisman ring.

At the end of the day, I really think Kansas is playing more consistently and they've both close/tight games as well as blowing teams out of the water (Nebraska). My only small concern is the "big-ness" of the stage that none of these guys have experienced before at this level. But, I still think they are more talented top to bottom on their roster. In fact, I don't think this will be as close as most of us would think - Kansas continues their cinderella season.

Kansas - 41
Missouri - 28

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma:
And all of a sudden, Oklahoma faces the situation that Texas has mastered over the years. They've got to be sweating just a bit in Norman after the Tech game and all of the injuries. As of now, they're without the starting running back and a linebacker. Bradford is still a question mark, but if he does play, you gotta wonder about his confidence a bit (remember, he's a redshirt freshman). If he doesn't play, it's all of a sudden a 50/50 game here. Although, Halzle came in and played pretty darn well once he got warmed up.

I think there's a real chance for Oklahoma State to compete in this game and I also think this will in fact be a tight game. But, as I mentioned last week, Oklahoma was very capable of losing the Tech game, but I still think they are too well coached to lose back-to-back games - Stoops is typically a great motivator.

Oklahoma - 34
Oklahoma State - 28

Arizona State at USC:
Nice prime-time game here, I think we got lucky....unfortunately, I STILL contend that Arizona State is not really that good. I still think they can beat USC (because guess what everyone - USC is in fact beatable), but I don' think they will.

I'm too lazy to try and figure this out, but if (when) USC beats ASU, you'll have a 3-way tie for the Pac 10 lead (Oregon, USC and Arizona State). I'm not positive, but I think Oregon would take the crown as they've beaten both of these guys. Either way, I'm taking USC big.

USC - 38
ASU - 24

UCONN at West Virginia:
West Virginia is loving this game because they will get credit for playing a top 25 team late in the year. I'm not sure how deserving the top 25 label is, but it's there and that's what the polls calculate. Granted, the Huskies have won a lot of games this year and they certainly have a solid defense, but I don't think they are West Virginia good.

Don't get me wrong, the Mountaineers are more than capable of blowing this game - and it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

West Virginia - 42
UCONN - 31

Texas at Texas A&M:
I briefly touched on this last week, but I really see this as a must-win game for Texas to keep this momentum going. If they go into College Station and lay an egg, it will be an enormous step backwards for these guys.

But, I don't think it's going to happen. The word on the street is that the Aggies just aren't motivated and don't seem to care about playing for their coaches. I have nothing to base this on except the observations/opinions of others - the same "others" that were adamant about how pumped up the Aggies were going to be last year when they came in and spanked Texas..so I'm putting a little clout into it.

Offensively I'm really hoping I see a sharp game with very few "real" mistakes (false starts, late hits, delay of game, etc.). And I think it's really imperative that Texas not turn the ball over. The numbers tell us Colt will probably throw an INT in this game, but I'm more worried about the fumbles we've had of late - we're averaging like 1.5 fumbles per game. Granted, we've lost almost none of them, but we're still giving them chances. And if we can't get the running game going, Colt may struggle - Charles has to come out firing.

Defensively - here's the thing, Texas A&M is not hard to stop. Primarily because they know how to do one thing - run the ball. Granted, they do have some success with the option in there, but if we can't stop their running game, we're in trouble. If the defense can keep the aggie offense in check early and let the offense put you up by 10 or 14, you're sitting pretty.

In all honesty, and you know how skeptical I am of these Longhorns, I do think they are way more talented than anything the Aggies can throw out. Michael Goodson has been a huge disappointment and Martellus Bennett (sp?) has been less than spectacular - and he's one of their best athletes. I think Texas can really use this as a statement game and make some noise in the BCS.

Which brings me to this - I know there are some who disagree with me here, but I think if Texas can go in and get a convincing win they put themselves in the best position to pickup an at-large bid for a BCS bowl - this is assuming OU moves on to the conference championship. My thinking is the bowl committees aren't going to give an at-large bid to the conference runner up - a team who just lost the last game they played. According to Stewart Mandel, he sees Texas facing Illinois in the Sugar bowl I believe, but as we know, anything can happen...and probably will. I'm going Texas in a big statement win here - mostly because they've shown consistent improvement over the last few weeks and I sense some hunger there.

Texas - 42
Texas A&M - 22

Other College Football Notes:
  • The Phil Fulmer roller coaster continues at Tennessee - win against Kentucky and you're in the conference championship game and likely, saving your job for another year
  • I still contend (though I hesitate more) that Alabama is going to be pretty darn good next year, but they REALLY need a decent showing against Auburn to have something to build on. A win would be astounding, but I don't see it happening
  • 2 Observations on this football season: 1) Parity like this is a good for the playoff argument, but 2) parity like this supports the "every game matters" theory as well. My take is this - if you have the same 6-8 teams year in and year out (like in the 90s), the BCS seems to be a good fit, but when you have this much parity between the top 15-20 teams, it begs for an 8-team playoff.
  • Hey Baylor, why in the world are you firing Guy Morris - you've had more success under this guy than you've had in the 5 years before him. You need to better manage your expectations there.
  • Good for Lloyd Carr for being able to retire without being forced out. He had a good run...until Tressell came to Ohio State.
  • I didn't mention it above, but I'm also a tad worried for Kansas - the number 2 ranking curse.
  • Words of joy from a Red Raider after the big win: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/79337
NFL:
  • Can't go here without mentioning the Maurice Jones-Drew hit on Shawn Merriman - wow! He leveled that guy.
  • It's astonishing how far the Chargers have come since last year....when they were 14-2. GM has to lose his job...has to.
  • Phillip Rivers is no good. Sorry, but he's really no good.
  • What a crazy kick in the Cleveland/Baltimore game at the end of regulation - never seen that before. Gotta love seeing Phil Dawson continue to kick ass in the league. Interesting note: he's the only player on that Browns team who was there when they started their second tenure in Cleveland.
  • Vince Young has struggled A LOT this year - no disputing that. BUT, he's played pretty damn well the last two games and I think it has to do with Fisher and Chow letting him get out and throw the ball more. He still needs work on his accuracy, but his decision making is vastly improved. He's getting killed by the fact that he's got dick for receivers - these guys are terrible. There were at least 2 or 3 instances when they were wide open and dropped a perfectly thrown ball. Uggh. Not making excuses though - Vince needs to play much better, but he needs help.
  • What in the world happened to the Titan's defense? They are atrocious - I don't Denver was actually in the red zone more than 2 times - they scored on runs/passes longer than 25 yards.
  • By the time the playoffs roll around, the Patriots may be the most hated team in the league - I really hope they lose their first game...in the second round of the playoffs - that would be great.
  • Top 5 things we didn't expect to see this year in the NFL: 1) The Chargers sucking this bad, 2) the Saints sucking this bad, 3) the Patriots looking like a college team, 4) Brett Favre competing for an MVP...and top team in the NFC, and 5) the Romo and the TO show.
  • Ugghh - one thing I will say for Vince Young - he needs to learn how to get outside of the pocket and throw the ball away.
A-Rod:
So most of you know I'm not a big baseball guy - never have been, but I do follow it somewhat (I use that term very loosely). The way that this A-Rod thing has been followed and reported on is just crazy. How in the world does this guy look like a jackass that so many want to make him out to be? He's getting ridiculed for asking for such a crazy amount and then going back and groveling?? What?

First off, did anyone really expect him to get $350 million? Surely not. Yes, it was a ghetto move to announce his opting out during the world series, but I think that was more his agent. Look, I'm not sure why Yankees fans hate him so much - you know, his career postseason numbers aren't that bad - they're certainly not terrific, but they aren't horrible either.

He just won (in a landslide) his 3rd MVP in four years. He's the best player in the game...period. He "settled" for a contract with the yankees (that isn't final yet) and he's STILL the highest paid player ever. But you know what, HE'S GOOD - HE SHOULD BE PAID MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE. With that said, I certainly don't condone the salaries these guys make, but he should be making more. Yankee fans are crazy - they should be ecstatic with this signing ...assuming it gets done.

That's what I got gang - have a great Turkey Day. I'll try and get a weekend recap out before next week.

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