Monday, March 31, 2008

Tournament History

As crazy as it seems this is the very first time we've had all number 1 seeds in the Final Four. How about that?

So much for my "every other round" theory - what a lame Elite Eight round....especially for all of those Longhorn fans. Ugh. Surely this Final Four will be a much better couple of games than the last four we've been subjected to. Right? Please?

But about those Horns. Man, talk about sketchy - they follow up arguably one of their best all around performances in a year or more with one of their worst. Memphis looked like they could beat Texas 10 out of 10 times they play - they absolutely dominated from beginning to end. They sure picked a hell of a time to break out of their decade-long free throw shooting slump. It was painful and depressing to watch.

Will be interesting to see what DJ Augustin does. I have been saying and will continue to say that he's gone...and probably not thinking too hard about it. Of course I'm basing this on what I've seen in mock drafts where I've seen him fall anywhere from 6 to 8.....either way that's a HUGE payday. Could he improve by coming back another year? He's certainly a premier natural talent in terms of college players - he came into this league and could compete with the best from day 1. But, in his first two years he's gone through some slumps of 4 or more games. Not a huge black eye, but he hasn't put together a complete season in terms of what he's capable of doing.

He may find that as get starts talking to scouts and "consultants" that he's more of a mid-round pick (which is still big, guaranteed bucks) in which case I can see him thinking about it. Who knows at this point, but if he's a top 10 pick, he's gone.

Personally, I think he could come back for one more year and not necessarily raise his stock as much as raise his preparedness for the next level. But, that's a risky gamble that he won't get hurt...especially when it may not have any impact on his pay day. We'll see. I'll tell you this - if he comes back, Texas should be a consensus pre-season number 1 next year. They will bring that entire team back. Even if he doesn't come back, they've got a hell of a team with James, Mason, Atchley, Pittman, Johnson and Abrams. That's good.

I think regardless Barnes needs to give Pittman and Johnson some very specific workout programs that emphasize fundamentals and conditioning. Those guys play balls-to-the wall every game, but they both have a tendency to get out of control. In Johnson's defense he was only hear for half a year (and he's a freshman). Not sure what any recruiting status/buzz is around Texas, but I think we all agree that a true, inside presence is the one and only hole at this point. That and depth, but I'll take this top 7 over a lesser 9. If he can bring in another center/power forward type player who can compete immediately (like a lot of his players have been able to do) they should be a great team...with or without DJ.

Final Four:
Memphis...who knew. I really didn't expect them to make it of all the final four teams. Yea, my bad on that one - again, they looked dominant. If I'm UCLA and I'm watching tape of the Texas game I'm pretty worried.

Do you realize that the highest-seeded opponent that Kansas played was an 8 seed? UNLV second round. Not sure that means much at this point, but an interesting fact. Meanwhile, UNC is playing a 3, 4 and 8 seed. The Tarheels are looking pretty darn impressive right now. I would like to see a Big 12 team win it all (I'm definitely out of the money in my bracket), and Kansas is definitely a great team, but I think UNC has too much. I'm taking the Heels are going back to the finals.

North Carolina - 74
Kansas - 70

I don't know what else to say about Memphis - they played a flawless game on Sunday and if they play like that they could probably beat the Knicks. No question that UCLA is more seasoned overall than the Tigers, but Memphis beat a very physical and tough Michigan State team AND a very fast, tough defensive Texas team - in one weekend.

Granted, UCLA has definitely not benefited from the upset bug quite as much as Kansas, but they've played some tight games against formidable competition. Whereas Memphis has 5 guys who can run you up and down the court, UCLA has the ideal "basketball" combo of a true (and very good) big man and a guard who can dish and score. I can't imagine that Memphis will play on the same level that they did against Texas and I think UCLA will be able to control the game quite a bit better than Texas could (or didn't at all). I'm taking UCLA in a dogfight....and because they're the only team I've still got alive in my bracket.

UCLA - 86
Memphis - 80

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