Monday, April 02, 2007

Rematch

So our college basketball season looks to be following the mold of college football season - ending the year with a battle between Ohio State and Florida. I wonder how many times this has happened? I was a bit disappointed in the final four games as both seemed a bit lame to me with Ohio State/Georgetown being the obviously better game.

Florida Throttles UCLA
Man, talk about not showing up - UCLA looked horrible, I can't believe anyone would have picked these guys (oh wait...)!! Yet again it took Florida almost a full half to wake up and start clicking. I would say they can't continue to do that and win another title, but why not? They've done it throughout the tournament thus far...

I really don't think the Bruins are as bad as this game would indicate - every team has a down offensive night and Saturday night was certainly UCLA's down night offensively. Afflalo was HORRIBLE shooting the ball and Ben Howland was grossly out coached. It's true the Bruin defense was terrific at the beginning, holding Florida without a field goal for what seemed like the first 10 minutes of the game. But if your shots aren't falling, it makes it hard to continue to keep focus defensively and ultimately I think UCLA just threw in the towel. There was a point when it looked as if they really believed they couldn't do anything - and that's when Florida opened it up.

Howland's handling of Afflalo the entire game was obscene - it's as if he's never coached a player who was in foul trouble. Much of that loss is on him for his coaching performance.

Whether you find him grossly obnoxious or not (I sometimes do), Joakim Noah is the one and only guy in this tournament who could actually not score a point and still be the most valuable player on the floor at any given time. More on this below...

Georgetown Runs out of Steam
This was an epic battle of 2 of the nations big men...and their ongoing foul trouble. This was actually a pretty good game. I've been picking against Ohio State for the entire tournament and guess what, I'm picking against them tonight too. Although I don't believe they have the weapons that Florida has I do strongly believe they are getting better every game - well some of them are. The way their guards can penetrate and either dish to the big men or take it all the way to the hole is getting pretty impressive - it's almost flawless the way they can execute this simple play. When they get the inside/outside ball movement going pretty fast, it's tough to beat and that's exactly what they did against Georgetown. After a while, the Hoyas just had no answer for it.

I mentioned Howland getting out coached - that was nothing compared to the job that Thad Mata put on JTIII - Thompson had absolutely no idea what he was doing against that Ohio State team - he was unable to make any adjustments whatsoever. He had a great run this year and you have to think this team will be back in a similar situation in the coming years, but that was a REALLY bad coaching performance. How about at least trying to run some sort of box and 1 against them? Or press them? Something to throw something new at them. Matta had to feel he was in complete control that whole game.

Oden Rant
Alright so we all remember at the beginning of the season (and throughout the season as well), all we heard about was Greg Oden this and Greg Oden that. And then Kevin Durant kind of came out of nowhere (at least from a media perspective) and slowly begin stealing the spotlight from Oden throughout the year until finally accomplishing a first and winning the AP Player of the Year (amongst other similar POY awards) as a freshman - and very much deserved I think we would all agree.

So I understand that Oden was hurt throughout the first part of the year. And many say he's still not 100% (I don't buy that for one second by the way) and he's still dominating. Well, I'm here to say that although a really good college big man, Greg Oden still has ways to go and I'll tell you why.

First off, let me reiterate this point - he is VERY good. 7 footers like that don't just come around every year and that's why big men will get more of the "pub" than big-time guards or forwards. This guy is a difference maker in that he can affect a team's entire offensive game plan with his presence in the middle of the lane. AND, he once he's down on the block, he can pretty much score at will - especially against the smaller guys that are guarding him close to 95% of the time.

WITH THAT SAID, here's my knocks on him. First off, he seems incapable of staying out of foul trouble. He took 0 shots and scored 0 points in the first half of the Georgetown game because of foul trouble. He had similar starts to the 2 previous games as well. This really comes down to 2 reasons: 1) He is not smart when he's taking the ball to the hole - he just barrels into the lane with reckless abandon and typically, one of his first 2 early fouls is a charge. 2) He is an atrocious on-ball defender. Specifically, when his man has the ball at the top or outside of the lane, he can't defend the drive/shoot option well at all. His defensive strength comes from simply sitting back in the lane and waiting for people to drive OR to just pick up rebounds.

I was really happy to see that Oden did not receive any votes for the AP POY award - I thought for sure in this day and age of beauty contest awards that a few jackasses would put him down. I'll tell you this - I would argue that if you took Oden off this team, they would have a pretty darn good chance of still being in this game. If you took Mike Conley Jr. off that team, they would have been out in the first or second game. He is the premier point guard in the country right now. Period. And, he's the premier player on this Ohio State team - the one player who leads this team and minimizes mistakes. It seems as if Oden wants no part of that role.

SIDEBAR: I heard lots and lots of discussions with talking heads on TV and writers about the best point guards in the country. On more than one occasion I heard them compare Conley and DJ Augustin, "these are the 2 best in the country". Let me tell you something. DJ Augustin is not even in the same ball park as Mike Conley Jr. right now. He may potentially climb to that echelon, but right now, Conley is head and shoulders above Augustin.

I think Oden needs to stay in college for at least another year. He needs to learn to play more dynamic defense before he ventures into the NBA and their weird defensive rules. At this rate, Oden would get an illegal defense call too many times - NOTE: in the NBA, defensive players cannot just sit in the middle of the lane and wait for offensive guys to drive in. And can you imagine this guy playing against an Amare Stoudamire, Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan? I don't think so. Not yet at least. I think he'll get there, but I think he would be making a big mistake if he goes pro right now.

And finally, I can't imagine a GM taking this guy over Durant with the first pick - cannot believe that would happen.

Florida vs. Ohio State
You know, this game is not unlike the football matchup between these schools earlier this year. Ohio State is everyone's darling although they play in a grossly overrated conference. Florida plays in one of the toughest conferences (arguably), with everyone searching high and low for a reason to hate on these guys and pick against them.

As much nit-picking as the writers have done and will do over this Florida team, there is no arguing this - they are the best team in the country. Period. I know, I picked against them and I was dead wrong, but I'm saying it now. In terms of talent, coaching, experience, confidence, etc. - they are the best team. I'm not suggesting OSU can't beat them, but I am suggesting that they won't.

Let's not read a whole lot into the first meeting between these 2 teams - it happened in December (ages ago) where Florida dominated the Buckeyes by 26 points. These are 2 different and better teams - that game is irrelevant right now. And neither team will be thinking about that or worrying about that either.

At the end of the day, I think Florida has too many weapons and too much depth. Look for Horford and Noah to tag team on Oden, frustrating him into foul trouble (again). Conley will keep this team in the game, but at the end of the night, I see Florida living large on top of the college sports world with a first back-to-back title since '91-92 when Duke took 2 consecutive titles.

Florida - 89
Ohio State - 80

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