Game On

Don't worry, I'm not going to bore you with this asinine comparison to the Lakers/Celtics match ups from the days of old - utter waste of time. I will admit this though, I was surprised to see the Lakers favored here, especially given how important home court has been throughout the playoffs. 

Here's a quick look at the key aspects of the series and how I see this playing out. 

Coaching:

I'm starting with this one because it's the easiest one. This is really no contest - not dissing Doc Rivers, but he's no Phil Jackson nor will he ever be a Phil Jackson (few ever will). Jackson's calm presence, trust in his rotation/system and his experience with coaching big-time players in big-time games will have an affect on this series, no doubt. Advantage Lakers. 

The Marquee Players:

One of my biggest concerns going into the San Antonio series was how can this team contain Duncan - hell, just slow him down. That concern was justified given Duncan's numbers throughout the series, but yet LA still had a very impressive and dominant series. The same concern can and will apply to KG - I suspect The Big Ticket will go off in most of these games simply because he can. Gasol hasn't yet learned how to play defense and Odom/Turiaf simply aren't anywhere near the same level of talent. 

The trick will be Pierce - this guy has career games against LA throughout his career. I don't see Kobe starting the game guarding Pierce, but look for that switch to happen if he starts going off as I suspect he will in at least a few of these games. Not so concerned about Ray Allan at this point, but we'll see as he's started to wake up a bit in the last few games in the Detroit series. 

The good news for LA? Kobe Bryant. This guy has stepped up his game more and more as the playoffs have gone on. He has a sense of urgency that some could argue equals or exceeds that of Garnett (who's been DYING to get a chance at a championship his career). Kobe wants this so bad it's as if he'll do anything within the realm of the game to get it. Or, he may stab someone in the eye if they lose it. Either way, look for Kobe to kick if up a notch if you can even begin to imagine that possibility. Although Kobe is quite a bit ahead of Garnett and Pierce I'm giving a slight edge to Boston here simply because they have both of those guys. 

Role Players:

This is very tough as Boston seems to have a different guy step up each night. Perkins scares the hell out of me. Seriously. LA really needs Odom to play with a bit more consistency in this series. He had a few spells of disappearing over these playoffs, but has certainly come up big in some of the games too. I'd like to believe that Odom quietly has a great sense of urgency as well, we just aren't sensing it. 

And Gasol. Pau, Pau, Pau, what to think about him. Gasol will get his points off of Kobe drive/dishes and tip ins, but where he really needs to go create opportunities is on the glass. If he can rebound like he did in the last Spurs game (19 boards, 10 offensive) give the trophy to the Lakers right now. Of course doing that over the course of a series would be unprecedented, but either way, get your white, skinny ass on the boards. And STOP COMPLAINING every single time you miss a shot. Seriously, his hounding of the refs has gotten him/his team nothing so knock if off and just play. Look for 1 or 2 REALLY big games from him as well as 1 or 2 REALLY bad games. Edge: Even. 

Random Intangibles: 

• The Lakers have lost as many games this entire playoffs as Boston is losing per series leading up to this point - 3 (they only lost twice against Detroit, but you get my point). Let's also point out that the Lakers have beaten more quality opponents and even closed out Utah on the road (best home team in the league by far). 
• Boston's record against the West in the regular season should not be taken lightly - playoffs (and moreover, the Finals) are completely different, but don't discount this. 
• Lakers lost to Boston both times they played this year....they didn't have Gasol or Bynum in either of those games. 
• Kobe is the best closer in the game today....by 100 miles. Pierce has shown flashes of being a dominant close as well (game 7 of Cleveland series where he threw up 40 points). Can Pierce be counted on in multiple games? Because Kobe can be in all of the games. 
• Garnett is NOT a closer. Not at all. 
• The format of the Final almost favors the away team - Lakers get 3 straight games at home. 
• Lakers haven't lost at home these playoffs...Boston has only lost once at home these playoffs. I'll say it again, home court plays an advantage here.
• Boston has faced 2 elimination games thus far (against one very bad team and one pretty good team) - LA has faced none in these playoffs. I say this as a good thing for Boston in terms of short-term experience.  

Tonight's Game:

If the Lakers going to steal one from Boston I really think they need to do it tonight - it's their best chance. Both teams have been off for pretty much a week so fatigue shouldn't come into play until a game 5 or so...if at all. Here's one for you - the NBA has set it up so that there are 2 days of rest between consecutive games in Boston with only one day rest between the switch from Boston to LA. Someone explain that one to me. 

I'm taking LA in a very tight game tonight. For the series? Lakers in 6.